MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker …...Oct 05, 2020 · Tracker – October 5 by Tom Lake COVID-19 Trends and Developments • The United Kingdom recorded its highest

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19

Tracker – October 5

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• The United Kingdom recorded its highest daily new case number on October 4, with

22,961 added to the total. This huge leap of 4.8% in one day comes after a 12,871

increase on October 3, which at the time was also a record one-day increase. The

significant jump in case numbers has been attributed to an error within government

and NHS IT systems, with many of the cases recorded earlier in the week but not

added to that days total. As such, the numbers for October 3 and 4 should be viewed

as outliers, but those numbers from late September were likely significantly

underestimating the spread of a second wave of infections.

• The global case increase on October 4 was recorded at 247,821. This marks the

largest single daily increase on a Sunday on record, exceeding the previous high of

240,736 on August 20. Reported new cases on Sundays are consistently lower than

other days with a number of countries with large caseloads, including France and

Spain, not reporting any case or fatalitiy figures on those days.

• Russia appears to be in the midst of a second wave of infections, with 10,376 new

cases recorded on October 4. This is the highest 24-hour caseload since the May 15,

when the country was in the midst of its initial first surge in cases. Russia’s number of

fatalities has also ticked up in recent weeks, rising to an average of 146 per day due

to COVID-19 over the past week, the highest seven-day average since July 18.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST October 5. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

04-Jul 04-Aug 04-Sep 04-Oct

Global

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)

Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Data correct as of 1145BST October 5. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain, Sweden

and the UK not available. No case or fatality data released in France, Spain or Sweden for Oct 4.

Country Confirmed

Cases

New Cases in Past 24

Hrs

Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past 24 Hrs

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

Rate of Increase in Cases

(7-day average)

Global 35,150,468 247,821 24,530,554 1,036,941 3,764 3.0 0.87%

Argentina 798,486 7,668 636,672 21,018 223 2.6 1.67%

Australia 27,148 13 24,890 894 0 3.3 0.05%

Belgium 130,235 2,612 N/A 10,064 20 7.7 1.90%

Brazil 4,915,289 8,456 4,375,354 146,352 365 3.0 0.54%

Canada 168,501 2,141 142,502 9,533 45 5.7 1.16%

Chile 470,179 1,708 442,070 12,979 60 2.8 0.38%

China 90,629 25 85,530 4,739 0 5.2 0.02%

Colombia 855,052 6,905 761,674 26,712 156 3.1 0.72%

France 629,509 0 100,308 32,171 0 5.1 1.89%

Germany 301,573 1,546 263,758 9,533 2 3.2 0.74%

Hong Kong 5,113 5 N/A 105 0 2.1 0.13%

India 6,623,815 74,442 5,586,703 102,685 903 1.6 1.24%

Iran 471,772 3,653 389,966 26,957 211 5.7 0.79%

Italy 325,329 2,578 231,914 35,986 18 11.1 0.70%

Japan 85,746 401 77,851 1,598 4 1.9 0.61%

Mexico 761,665 3,712 645,123 79,088 208 10.4 0.60%

Peru 821,564 0 706,223 32,609 0 4.0 0.38%

Russia 1,209,039 10,376 978,610 21,260 107 1.8 0.76%

Saudi Arabia 336,387 390 321,485 4,875 25 1.4 0.14%

Singapore 57,812 12 57,575 27 0 0.05 0.03%

South Africa 681,289 1,573 614,781 16,976 38 2.5 0.22%

South Korea 24,164 73 21,886 422 1 1.7 0.30%

Spain 789,932 0 N/A 32,086 0 4.1 1.42%

Sweden 94,283 0 N/A 5,895 0 6.3 0.52%

UK 502,978 22,961 N/A 42,350 33 8.4 2.10%

US 7,417,845 35,504 2,911,699 209,721 337 2.8 0.59%

Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from

COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective

country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each

country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Argentina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Australia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000


Belgium

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000


Brazil

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000


Canada

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Chile

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


China

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


France

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Germany

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Hong Kong

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000


India

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Iran

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Italy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Japan

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Mexico

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Peru

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000


Russia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


Saudi Arabia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


Singapore

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


South Africa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


South Korea

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Spain

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Sweden

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST October 5, and represents full-day

data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MapChart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Oct 4. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, US, UK, Russia,

Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Ukraine, Netherlands, Indonesia.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


UK

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000


US

Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Oct 4. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Oman, UK,

Montenegro, Israel, Belgium, Bahrain, Bahamas, Armenia, Czech Republic, Moldova. Countries with population below 100k

excluded.

Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of

Population

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data for Oct 4. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain,

Israel, Panama, Kuwait, Peru, Chile, Brazil, US, Oman. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Oct 4. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: India,

Brazil, US, Argentina, Iran, Mexico, Colombia, Russia, Philippines, Indonesia.

Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Oct 4. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Oman,

Montenegro, Cape Verde, Argentina, Israel, Tunisia, Moldova, Chile, Romania, Ecuhador. Countries with population below

100k excluded.

Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head

of State’s Population

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Oct 4. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium,

Bolivia, Brazil, Spain, Chile, Ecuador, US, UK, Mexico. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Documents

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker …...Oct 05, 2020 · Tracker – October 5 by Tom Lake COVID-19 Trends and Developments • The United Kingdom recorded its highest