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Week 1 – January 7, 2021Michael Skordeles, AIF®

Senior U.S. Macro Strategist

COVID-19 economic data tracker

Trend watch and what’s new this week

The spike in U.S. virus trends due to the omicron variant nationally

(slide 3) and regionally (slide 7) continues. Omicron appears to be

milder than prior variants (slide 8) and has quickly crowded out all other

variants (slide 9). However, it is causing a ramp up in hospitalizations

(slide 10), which is problematic. We also revisit the school-age cases

(slide 11), which held steady over winter break.

This week, we revisit the massive West Coast port traffic tsunami (slide

12). While there’s been a lot of attention on the bottlenecks at U.S.

ports, which has caused goods to be delayed, the top five U.S. ports

have handled nearly 18% more cargo year-to-date compared to 2019.

We also highlight mobility by year (slide 13), which shows Americans

gradually becoming more active despite the pandemic.

Lastly, we check in on movie box office trends (slide 14). The number of

ticket sold more than doubled in 2021 from 2020, but is still down 60%

from pre-pandemic levels. This too shows Americans are gradually

venturing out more.

Bottom line

Economic activity weakened, which is typical as most people and

businesses coast into year end. Still, there’s a fair amount of noise in

the incoming data due to the combination of omicron, holiday

seasonality, and a series of winter storms.

These developments will certainly result in softer data to start the New

Year as some of these issues have spilled into January. That said, it’s

important to understand such delays typically result in pushing back

activity rather than cancelling it, which equates to outright losses.

Similarly, many schools have reverted to virtual learning and

companies have pushed back return-to-office plans. While these are

setbacks, they’re temporary delays rather than permanent decisions.

They also illustrate resiliency as such setbacks are largely being

handled as routine events using protocols developed early in the

pandemic instead of as major disruptions.

U.S. COVID-19 economic data tracker matrix

I n d i c a t o rR e l a t i v e

t r e n dW h a t w e ’ r e w a t c h i n g

U.S. state reopenings

Economic activity weakened, which is typical as most people and businesses coast into year end.

The spike in omicron cases likely contributed to the weakness. Still, overall activity levels are

consistent with recent trends and seasonal norms.

TSA air passenger

throughput

Weekly passengers fell 8.7% WoW, down for a second straight week, to 12.4 million, which was -22.9% below

the 2019 weekly average of 16.1M. Passenger counts are -17.9% under the same week in January 2019.

OpenTable restaurant

bookings

Continues to bounce around as it rose to -7% mid-week then slumped to -12.4%. Top positive states were led

by Florida (+10%); bottom was New York (-62%). Top city was Miami (+27%); bottom was San Fran (-73%).

Google mobility DActivities remain skewed as the year winds down. 7-day averages relative to 2020: Parks -14%, Transit -31%,

Grocery/Pharmacy -3%, Residential +12%, Retail/Restaurant/Recreation -15%, Workplaces -42%.

Hotel occupancy Occupancy jumped 10 percentage points to 54.3%. The average daily rate jumped to $157.91, up 15.1% from

the same week in Jan. 2019, while revenue per available room rose to $85.74, up 27.4% from Jan. 2019.

Apartment rent

payments

Payments through December 6 slipped to 77.1% from 78.2% in November. Full month rents for November ’21

edged up to 93.1% from 93.0% in October, but were down from 95.2% in November ’19.

Freight

Rail carloads fell 14.5% MoM during December, but were 4.1% above December 2019 levels. Shipping

container counts for the top five U.S. ports fell 5% in November, but volumes were up 17.8% YTD compared to

2019.

Staffing index Dropped to 97.1 during the week of the last week of December, which is typical, from 107.9 two weeks ago. We

expect it to rebound in early January as it has historically. The low for this cycle was 59.6 set in April 2020.

Trend relative to whether it is favorable for economic growth:

Positive qNegative DNeutral / Mixed

Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Our World in Data, Transportation Security Administration, OpenTable,

Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, STR/CoStar, National Multifamily Housing Council Rent

Payment Tracker, American Staffing Association. Week-over-weak and year-over-year change are abbreviated

as WoW and YoY, respectively.

Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University through January 6, 2021. Data for 50 U.S. states plus American Samoa, Washington D.C., Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin

Islands. 7-day moving average (DMA).

U.S. cases, hospitalizations spiking higher, but death rate holding steady

2,189,060

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Ma

r-2

1

Apr-

21

Ma

y-2

1

Jun-2

1

Jul-2

1

Aug-2

1

Sep-2

1

Oct-

21

No

v-2

1

De

c-2

1

Jan-2

2

Tests performed 7-day moving average

605,833

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

Jan-2

1

Feb

-21

Ma

r-2

1

Apr-

21

Ma

y-2

1

Jun-2

1

Jul-2

1

Aug-2

1

Sep-2

1

Oct-

21

No

v-2

1

De

c-2

1

Jan-2

2

New confirmed cases 7-day moving average

128,461

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

Jan-2

1

Feb

-21

Ma

r-2

1

Apr-

21

Ma

y-2

1

Jun-2

1

Jul-2

1

Aug-2

1

Sep-2

1

Oct-

21

No

v-2

1

De

c-2

1

Jan-2

2

Total hospitalized currently

1,384

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

Jan-2

1

Feb

-21

Ma

r-2

1

Apr-

21

Ma

y-2

1

Jun-2

1

Jul-2

1

Aug-2

1

Sep-2

1

Oct-

21

No

v-2

1

De

c-2

1

Jan-2

2

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

U.S. COVID-19 deathsTotal deaths (r-axis)

Change in deaths 7-DMA (l-axis)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22

Cumulative vaccine doses administered (in billions)

China (2.87B)

India (1.48B)

European Union (753.7M)

United States (513.8M)

Brazil (333.6M)

Indonesia (283.5M)

Data sources: Truist IAG, Our World in Data, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through January 5, 2021. U.S. figures includes all 50 states plus Washington D.C., U.S. military installations and territories.

Figures for the United Kingdom are not included in the European Union. 7-day moving average (DMA).

Boosters helping drive global vaccinations higher again

World

(9.3B, not shown)

8.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22

Daily pace of vaccine doses administered in China (7-DMA, in millions)

33.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22

Global vaccine doses administered per day(7-DMA, in millions)

3.91

2.67

0.620.35 0.28 0.21 0.13

World Asia Europe NorthAmerica

SouthAmerica

UnitedStates

Africa

Fully vaccinated by region (in billions)

Data sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left, bottom right: Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through January 6, 2021. Top right, bottom left: Our World in Data,

Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through January 5, 2022. U.S. figures includes all 50 states plus Washington D.C., U.S. military installations and territories. *Fully vaccinated is defined as receiving two

doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or receiving a single-dose vaccine regimen.

Nearly 75% of Americans adults are fully vaccinated (over 200 million) and over 35% have already received a booster

2.8%

13.100%

21.7%

16.8%14.4%

18.9%

7.0%3.5% 1.8%

0.0% 0.1% 0.7%1.7%

3.9%

17.4%

22.0%

26.1%27.9%

0-4 5-17 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75-84 85+

U.S. COVID-19 percentage of cases and deaths by age

Cases Deaths

62.4%71.4% 73.1%

87.7%74.0%

84.1% 86.0%95.0%

35.3% 38.3%

59.6%

% of totalpopulation

% of Americansage 12 and over

% of adults % of Americansover 65

U.S. vaccinations (percentage of population)

Fully vaccinated* At least one dose Booster dose

0.07

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22

U.S. pace of fully vaccinated (7-DMA, in millions)

205.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22

Number of Americans fully vaccinated (in millions)

Data sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left: Bloomberg, NY Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index through January 1, 2022. Top right: (U.S. Community Mobility) Google

COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports 7-day average through January 3. Bottom left: Bloomberg, OpenTable 7-day average through January 5. Bottom right: Bloomberg, Transportation Security Administration (TSA)

7-day average through January 5.

Activity-based trends have shifted recently with the holiday season

-12.4%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

Jan-2

1

Feb

-21

Ma

r-2

1

Apr-

21

Ma

y-2

1

Jun-2

1

Jul-2

1

Aug-2

1

Sep-2

1

Oct-

21

No

v-2

1

De

c-2

1

OpenTable bookings % change compared to 2019 (7-day average)

7.2%

-12%-8%-4%0%4%8%

12%16%

Jun-2

0

Jul-2

0

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

Jan-2

1

Feb

-21

Ma

r-2

1

Apr-

21

Ma

y-2

1

Jun-2

1

Jul-2

1

Aug-2

1

Sep-2

1

Oct-

21

No

v-2

1

De

c-2

1

NY Fed weekly economic index

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75U.S. community mobility (7-day average)

Grocery & Pharmacy TransitWorkplaces ParksResidential Retail & Recreation

1.77

0

1

2

3

1 41 81 121 161 201 241 281 321 361Day of the year

TSA checkpoint traveler throughput (7-day average, in millions)

2019 2020 2021 2022

Omicron spiking cases again

The onset of the omicron variant has quickly pushed new infections higher, with all four regions making new highs. Cases in New York state have

exploded higher, as have California and Texas. Cases are up dramatically in Florida, but reporting is sporadic.

Data source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University, data through January 6, 2022.

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21

COVID-19 new cases by region(7-day moving average)

West Midwest Northeast South

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21

COVID-19 new cases – select states (7-day

moving average)

Texas

Ohio

California

Illinois

New Jersey

New York

After 2nd wave, pandemic has been less deadly thanks to vaccines and better treatments

While the omicron variant has spiked infections, the COVID-19 pandemic has become less deadly. Some epidemiologists theorize that—between infections and vaccines—the virus is running out of unexposed people to infect. Additionally, with the proliferation of at-home test, it’s also likely that there millions of new cases are underreported, suggesting severe outcomes (hospitalizations/death) are becoming less prevalent. All of this means the virus is becoming more manageable.

Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University through January 2, 2022. Data for 50 U.S. states plus American Samoa, Washington D.C., Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin

Islands. 7-day moving average (DMA).

404,743

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Mar-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Dec-21

New confirmed cases 7-day moving average

Omicron

Second

waveDelta

variant

Initial

outbreak 1,326

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Mar-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Dec-21

Change in deaths 7-day moving average

Initial

outbreak

Delta

variant

Second

wave

Omicron

Omicron variant now dominant U.S. strain, crowding out delta and all others

The omicron variant was first detected in the U.S in late November. Within four weeks, it became the dominant variant and now appears to be pushing out

all of the other variants. While highly infectious, some epidemiologists theorize this crowding out by omicron will make the COVID-19 coronavirus

become less deadly and much more like the seasonal coronaviruses, which are manageable.

Data sources: Truist IAG, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). Weekly data from September 18, 2021 through January 1, 2022.

99.1% 99.2% 99.2% 99.1% 99.2% 99.0% 99.2% 98.7% 98.6% 98.3% 99.7% 99.3%87.0%

26.6% 26.6%

4.6%

0.7% 12.6%

73.2% 73.2%

95.4%

0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Sep. 18 Sep. 25 Oct. 2 Oct. 9 Oct. 16 Oct. 23 Oct. 30 Nov. 6 Nov. 13 Nov. 20 Nov. 27 Dec. 4 Dec. 11 Dec. 18 Dec. 25 Jan. 1

New U.S. COVID-19 cases by variant

Delta variant Omicron variant All other variants

0.1% Omicron

first detected

Hospitals in nine states now above 20% COVID-19 patients

The national average is nearly 17% of hospital beds are occupied by COIVD-19 patients. Nine states, plus Washington, D.C., are currently above 20%.

Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Department of Health & Human Services. Data through January 6, 2022.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Ma

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Ne

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ork

Ne

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Geo

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Flo

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West V

irgin

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Ca

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lina

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Ten

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Okla

hom

a

Kansas

Co

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do

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a

South

Dakota

Mis

sis

sip

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No

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Dakota

Ala

bam

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Lo

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iana

Ark

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Idaho

Ha

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g

Percentage of inpatient beds occupied by COVID-19 patients

U.S. school-aged new cases held steady during winter break

The total number of new COVID-19 cases of school-

aged children held steady at 13.1% of all new U.S.

cases for the past three weeks.

New cases in the 5-11 age group stayed at 6.0% in

the past week. Meanwhile, the 12-15 age cohort

remained at 4.4% and the 16-17 age group held at

2.7%.

There’ve been 710 deaths in school-aged children

during the entire pandemic, or 0.1% of all U.S.

COVID deaths.

Data sources: Truist IAG, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). Data from July 29, 2021 through January 5, 2021.

4.2% 4.3%4.5%

4.7%4.9%

5.1%

5.4%5.6%

5.8%6.0% 6.0%

3.8% 3.8% 3.9%4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%

2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22

New COVID-19 cases of school-aged children as a percentage of total new U.S. cases

Total cases (r-axis) Ages 5-11 (l-axis)

Ages 12-15 (l-axis) Ages 16-17 (l-axis)

Massive West Coast port traffic appears to be easing

The two largest U.S. ports—Los Angeles and Long

Beach—share San Pedro Bay. Prior to late 2020,

most ships never anchored in San Pedro Bay aside

from rare occasions due to storms, maintenance, or

an accident, and it would be a handful of ships if it did

occur. In 2021, an average of 54 container ships

carrying cargo were anchored* per day, peaking at

109 in early November. It has fallen to 45 this week.

Meanwhile, the ports have averaged 1.7 million

containers per month in 2021, which is above the pre-

pandemic all-time record of 1.66 million set back in

October 2018.

Sources: Truist IAG, Marine Exchange of Southern California; data from November 12, 2020 through January 6, 2022.

* Container ships anchored includes anchored, loitering or in designated drift areas.

167

102109

45

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Nov-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Dec-21

Ships in port of LA/Long Beach

Total ships Container ships anchored*

Despite the pandemic, Americans are gradually becoming more active

Following the 2020 lockdowns, activity levels have

gradually improved, which is clear when viewing the

data by year. As the pandemic stretches into a third

calendar year, mobility data illustrates that American

are becoming more comfortable doing activities.

The average began 2022 at -15.5% compared to the

pre-pandemic baseline in early 2020 (indexed to

zero), but is above the -19.4% reading in early 2021.

We expect this gradually increasing trend will

continue and improve further as 2022 progresses.

Data sources: Truist IAG, (U.S. Community Mobility) Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports 7-day average from February 15,

2020 through January 3, 2022.

-19.4%

-15.5%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

1 61 121 181 241 301 361

Hundre

ds

Day of the year

U.S. community mobility by year (7-day average)

2020 2021 2022

2020

lockdown

period

Cinema ticket sales double in ’21, still down 60% from pre-pandemic

Box office sales jumped thanks to the latest Spider-Man blockbuster, helping sales climb to $4.4 billion for all of 2021 and 486,900 tickets sold. While that

more than doubled the pandemic-impacted 2020 figures ($2.1B and 229,200 tickets), the number of moviegoers remains 61.4% below the pre-pandemic

three-year average of 1.26 million.

Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, BoxOffice Media. Left chart: weekly data through December 30, 2021; right chart: annual data.

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2018 2019 2020 2021

Weekly box office gross sales ($ in millions)

Spider-Man:

No Way Home

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

'82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18 '21

Annual box office ticket sales (number of tickets sold in millions)

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