Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Model Testing of Creative Strategies and Performance Targets in Napa County, California. PRESENTED BY Joseph Story, AICP DKS Associates. May 20, 2009. Sensitivity Testing on a Regional Multimodal Model Provided Insight on Its Usefulness for New Policy Questions. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Model Testing of Creative Strategies and Performance Targets in Napa County, California
May 20, 2009
PRESENTED BYJoseph Story, AICP
DKS Associates
Sensitivity Testing on a Regional Multimodal Model Provided Insight on Its Usefulness
for New Policy Questions
Sensitivity Testing on a Regional Multimodal Model Provided Insight on Its Usefulness
for New Policy Questions• Setting of Napa’s Unique Travel
Characteristics• Overview of Napa’s Transportation Future
Process and Recommendations• Tool: Solano / Napa Super-Regional Travel
Demand Model• Results of Testing of Recommended
Strategies• Strengths and Shortcomings of Model
Application
• Setting of Napa’s Unique Travel Characteristics
• Overview of Napa’s Transportation Future Process and Recommendations
• Tool: Solano / Napa Super-Regional Travel Demand Model
• Results of Testing of Recommended Strategies
• Strengths and Shortcomings of Model Application
Napa’s Setting: Well-Known Wine Country Popularity Promotes a Growth EnvironmentNapa’s Setting: Well-Known Wine Country
Popularity Promotes a Growth Environment
Characteristic 2005 2035 % ChangePopulation 133,700 155,700 16%
Households 49,270 59,650 21%
Employment 70,690 98,570 39%
Napa’s Setting: Tourism and Agricultural Economies
Produce Swings in Employment and Traffic
Napa’s Setting: Tourism and Agricultural Economies
Produce Swings in Employment and Traffic• Major Areas
of Concern NOT Commuter Focused
• Difficult to Resolve Employment Estimates
• Major Areas of Concern NOT Commuter Focused
• Difficult to Resolve Employment Estimates
600006200064000660006800070000720007400076000
Jan
-06
Fe
b-0
6
Ma
r-0
6
Ap
r-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Jun
-06
Jul-
06
Au
g-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Oct
-06
No
v-0
6
De
c-0
6
Jan
-07
Fe
b-0
7
Ma
r-0
7
Workers
Mo
nth
Labor Force
Employed Residents
Napa’s Setting: Land Preservation Strategies Encourage Growth South of Downtown NapaNapa’s Setting: Land Preservation Strategies Encourage Growth South of Downtown Napa
Napa’s Transportation Future Process and RecommendationsNapa’s Transportation Future
Process and Recommendations• Prior strategic plans had capital
projects focus• Project designed with extensive
public discussion – workshops, lectures, meetings
• Broad community recognition that goals to reduce single-occupant driving are important
• Model sensitivity testing done after preferred strategies emerged
• Prior strategic plans had capital projects focus
• Project designed with extensive public discussion – workshops, lectures, meetings
• Broad community recognition that goals to reduce single-occupant driving are important
• Model sensitivity testing done after preferred strategies emerged
Napa’s Transportation Future Sets Specific 2035 Goals and Objectives
Napa’s Transportation Future Sets Specific 2035 Goals and Objectives
GOAL: REDUCE / RESTRAIN GROWTH OF AUTOMOBILE VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT) Objective: 0% net growth in aggregate VMT
GOAL: SPREAD THE LOAD FROM PEAK TIMES TO NON-PEAK TIMES Objective: Shift 10% of journey-to-work travel from peak to non-peak times
GOAL: SHIFT TRAVEL FROM SINGLE-OCCUPANCY VEHICLES TO OTHER MODESObjective: Increase % of trips made by transit to 5%Objective: Increase % of trips made by bicycle and walking to 20%
GOAL: REDUCE OVERALL ENERGY USE AND GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONSObjective: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions from all transportation modes to 40% below 1990 levels
GOAL: REDUCE / RESTRAIN GROWTH OF AUTOMOBILE VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT) Objective: 0% net growth in aggregate VMT
GOAL: SPREAD THE LOAD FROM PEAK TIMES TO NON-PEAK TIMES Objective: Shift 10% of journey-to-work travel from peak to non-peak times
GOAL: SHIFT TRAVEL FROM SINGLE-OCCUPANCY VEHICLES TO OTHER MODESObjective: Increase % of trips made by transit to 5%Objective: Increase % of trips made by bicycle and walking to 20%
GOAL: REDUCE OVERALL ENERGY USE AND GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONSObjective: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions from all transportation modes to 40% below 1990 levels
Study Group Recommendations Developed to Address Policy Concerns – Supply StrategiesStudy Group Recommendations Developed to Address Policy Concerns – Supply Strategies
• Investigate bus rapid transit systems for Napa County
• Promote energy efficient and environmentally benign transit systems
• Real-time bus tracking, traffic light synchronization, “Dial 511” transportation information
• Maintain options for water transportation, promote freight rail in South County, support a full integration of air transportation connections
• Investigate bus rapid transit systems for Napa County
• Promote energy efficient and environmentally benign transit systems
• Real-time bus tracking, traffic light synchronization, “Dial 511” transportation information
• Maintain options for water transportation, promote freight rail in South County, support a full integration of air transportation connections
• Maintain critical street and road infrastructure
• Invest in strategic road system expansion in South County
• Convert high frequency intersections to roundabout configuration
• Build bike paths and sidewalks• Create satellite park and ride
sites• Promote bypass road and
transit strategies to address pass-through traffic
• Increase transit (bus) service• Actively explore creating a
passenger rail system
• Maintain critical street and road infrastructure
• Invest in strategic road system expansion in South County
• Convert high frequency intersections to roundabout configuration
• Build bike paths and sidewalks• Create satellite park and ride
sites• Promote bypass road and
transit strategies to address pass-through traffic
• Increase transit (bus) service• Actively explore creating a
passenger rail system
Study Group Recommendations Developed to Address Policy Concerns – Demand StrategiesStudy Group Recommendations Developed to Address Policy Concerns – Demand Strategies
• Work with the wine and hospitality industries to create and promote car-free tourism services
• Address the special transportation needs of a growing senior population
• Work with employers to encourage alternatives for commuting and mid-day work trips
• Parking pricing strategies
• Work with the wine and hospitality industries to create and promote car-free tourism services
• Address the special transportation needs of a growing senior population
• Work with employers to encourage alternatives for commuting and mid-day work trips
• Parking pricing strategies
• Promote workforce housing production near jobs
• Promote urban design and infrastructure development policies to encourage bike and pedestrian activity
• Promote safe non-auto routes to school, and after school programs
• Promote well-located health and social service delivery to minimize travel
• Institute comprehensive growth management guidelines that covers all jurisdictions
• Promote workforce housing production near jobs
• Promote urban design and infrastructure development policies to encourage bike and pedestrian activity
• Promote safe non-auto routes to school, and after school programs
• Promote well-located health and social service delivery to minimize travel
• Institute comprehensive growth management guidelines that covers all jurisdictions
The Tool: Napa-Solano Multi-Modal Travel Demand Model
The Tool: Napa-Solano Multi-Modal Travel Demand Model
• Model design finalized with 2003 work session
• Appropriately replicate current and future inter-regional travel demand
• Provide local network and TAZ detail in Solano and Napa counties
• Most focus on traffic count validation at peak hours
• Survey data provided from secondary sources; not part of model scope
• Model design finalized with 2003 work session
• Appropriately replicate current and future inter-regional travel demand
• Provide local network and TAZ detail in Solano and Napa counties
• Most focus on traffic count validation at peak hours
• Survey data provided from secondary sources; not part of model scope
The Tool: Napa-Solano Multimodal Travel Demand Model
The Tool: Napa-Solano Multimodal Travel Demand Model
• 1385 Traffic Analysis Zones Local Solano and Napa County models (989) Covers remaining San Francisco Bay Area (282) Sacramento region (102) San Joaquin and Lake Counties (12)
• Model validated to 2000• Phase 1 Model (fixed mode shares)
accepted in 2006• Phase 2 Model (HOV, walk / bike and transit
mode shares) accepted in 2008
• 1385 Traffic Analysis Zones Local Solano and Napa County models (989) Covers remaining San Francisco Bay Area (282) Sacramento region (102) San Joaquin and Lake Counties (12)
• Model validated to 2000• Phase 1 Model (fixed mode shares)
accepted in 2006• Phase 2 Model (HOV, walk / bike and transit
mode shares) accepted in 2008
The Tool: Napa-Solano Multimodal Travel Demand Model Network
The Tool: Napa-Solano Multimodal Travel Demand Model Network
Solano Co
Napa Co
Bay Area Counties
SACOG Region
San Joaquin Co
Lake Co
A Series of Scenarios Were Tested to Show Results of New Strategies
A Series of Scenarios Were Tested to Show Results of New Strategies
SCENARIOS
1 – Baseline Trends
2 – Adopt Strategies Without Land Use Changes
3 – Adopt Strategies With Land Use Changes
4 – Slower Growth (Shift Jobs to Solano County)
5 – The “What Would It Take” Scenario
SCENARIOS
1 – Baseline Trends
2 – Adopt Strategies Without Land Use Changes
3 – Adopt Strategies With Land Use Changes
4 – Slower Growth (Shift Jobs to Solano County)
5 – The “What Would It Take” Scenario
Napa’s Transportation Future
VMT and VHT Measured by Trip Tables to Best Demonstrate Local Policy Choices
VMT and VHT Measured by Trip Tables to Best Demonstrate Local Policy Choices
Trip-Table Based VMT/VHTOrigins or destinations within Napa
Calculated based on vehicle trip ends
Trips leaving / entering County counted as half of intra-county trips
Trip-Table Based VMT/VHTOrigins or destinations within Napa
Calculated based on vehicle trip ends
Trips leaving / entering County counted as half of intra-county trips
Link-Based VMT/VHTPortions of trips within Napa County
Includes through trips
Does not look at trip portions outside of County made by local residents / workers
Link-Based VMT/VHTPortions of trips within Napa County
Includes through trips
Does not look at trip portions outside of County made by local residents / workers
Testing of Baseline Trends (Scenario 1)
Testing of Baseline Trends (Scenario 1)
• Findings of all trips (to / from / within County) Trip-Based VMT increases 36% AM and 38% PM Trip-Based VHT increases 80% AM and 76% PM
• Observations Growth in most congested portion
(South of Napa) of Napa County Growth areas are in Bay Area commuter markets
– with longer commutes Through trip increases from Napa County
• Findings of all trips (to / from / within County) Trip-Based VMT increases 36% AM and 38% PM Trip-Based VHT increases 80% AM and 76% PM
• Observations Growth in most congested portion
(South of Napa) of Napa County Growth areas are in Bay Area commuter markets
– with longer commutes Through trip increases from Napa County
Testing of Strategies on Fixed Land Use (Scenario 2)
Testing of Strategies on Fixed Land Use (Scenario 2)
• Assumptions Roadways
Widening / extensions of South County arterials
Local road projects
Transit frequencies doubled
Bicycle-pedestrian connections improved to be twice as fast (“attractive”)
• Assumptions Roadways
Widening / extensions of South County arterials
Local road projects
Transit frequencies doubled
Bicycle-pedestrian connections improved to be twice as fast (“attractive”)
Testing of Strategies on Fixed Land Use (Scenario 2)
Testing of Strategies on Fixed Land Use (Scenario 2)
• Results Combined improvements have small
aggregate effect Over 300 fewer work trips in vehicles 80 to 90 fewer vehicle trips on the road
HBW transit / walk / bicycle mode share forecast increased from 7.6% to 7.9% for intra-county trips
Decrease in VMT and VHT of 1 to 4 % Greater at PM peak hour (shorter non-work trips)
• Results Combined improvements have small
aggregate effect Over 300 fewer work trips in vehicles 80 to 90 fewer vehicle trips on the road
HBW transit / walk / bicycle mode share forecast increased from 7.6% to 7.9% for intra-county trips
Decrease in VMT and VHT of 1 to 4 % Greater at PM peak hour (shorter non-work trips)
Testing of Strategies with Land Use Changes (Scenario 3)
Testing of Strategies with Land Use Changes (Scenario 3)
• Assumptions Relocation of 1500 households and 500 jobs
to potential mixed-use growth areas
• Results Less profound changes in VMT / VHT than mere
transportation improvements HBW transit / walk / bicycle mode share forecast
remained 7.9% for intra-county trips Increased VMT / VHT from land use changes
of 1 to 2%
• Assumptions Relocation of 1500 households and 500 jobs
to potential mixed-use growth areas
• Results Less profound changes in VMT / VHT than mere
transportation improvements HBW transit / walk / bicycle mode share forecast
remained 7.9% for intra-county trips Increased VMT / VHT from land use changes
of 1 to 2%
Testing of Slower Growth (Scenario 4)
Testing of Slower Growth (Scenario 4)
• Assumptions Future jobs reduced from 97K to 85K Jobs relocated to Solano County No network changes from Scenario 1 – Baseline
(not strategy network) Network reflects less need to make and
fund expansion• Results
1% AM VMT reduction & 2% increase in AM VHT 2% increase in PM VMT and VHT HBW transit / walk / bicycle mode share of 7.7%
for intra-county trips
• Assumptions Future jobs reduced from 97K to 85K Jobs relocated to Solano County No network changes from Scenario 1 – Baseline
(not strategy network) Network reflects less need to make and
fund expansion• Results
1% AM VMT reduction & 2% increase in AM VHT 2% increase in PM VMT and VHT HBW transit / walk / bicycle mode share of 7.7%
for intra-county trips
Testing of “What Would It Take” (Scenario 5)
Testing of “What Would It Take” (Scenario 5)
• Assumptions Parking charges of 50 cents per hour
everywhere in Napa County Bus frequencies at 10 minutes Pedestrian accessibility improved 500% Bicycling becomes as attractive as nearby
college town• Results
HBW transit / walk / bicycle mode share grows to 27.6% for intra-county trips
4% decrease in AM and PM VMT; 6% decrease in AM and PM VHT
Benefits occurred on short-distance trips
• Assumptions Parking charges of 50 cents per hour
everywhere in Napa County Bus frequencies at 10 minutes Pedestrian accessibility improved 500% Bicycling becomes as attractive as nearby
college town• Results
HBW transit / walk / bicycle mode share grows to 27.6% for intra-county trips
4% decrease in AM and PM VMT; 6% decrease in AM and PM VHT
Benefits occurred on short-distance trips
Strengths of Using this Model for Sensitivity Testing
Strengths of Using this Model for Sensitivity Testing
• Model showed some benefit in congestion reduction and slight mode shifts to transit / walk / bicycle, especially with short-distance trips
• Strategies illustrate the challenges of achieving carbon footprint reductions where land uses and lifestyles are fixed
• Scenarios demonstrated that shifting growth to the wrong areas – even as mixed-use or high-density development – can increase VMT / VHT if the area is congested
• Complex relationships between land use and transportation
Density and diversity may not result in reductions
• Model showed some benefit in congestion reduction and slight mode shifts to transit / walk / bicycle, especially with short-distance trips
• Strategies illustrate the challenges of achieving carbon footprint reductions where land uses and lifestyles are fixed
• Scenarios demonstrated that shifting growth to the wrong areas – even as mixed-use or high-density development – can increase VMT / VHT if the area is congested
• Complex relationships between land use and transportation
Density and diversity may not result in reductions
Shortcomings of Using this Model for Sensitivity Testing
Shortcomings of Using this Model for Sensitivity Testing
• Model was not necessarily built or calibrated to answer emerging policy questions
• Model responsiveness appeared to somewhat “fail” because it did not respond significantly to varied scenario assumptions, although the inherent model design and fixed assumptions on behavior, land use and transportation were likely causes
• Metrics from partial geographic data prone to volatility that masks potential policy-based model inputs Trip-table-based VMT / VHT Use of VMT / VHT per household
• Model was not necessarily built or calibrated to answer emerging policy questions
• Model responsiveness appeared to somewhat “fail” because it did not respond significantly to varied scenario assumptions, although the inherent model design and fixed assumptions on behavior, land use and transportation were likely causes
• Metrics from partial geographic data prone to volatility that masks potential policy-based model inputs Trip-table-based VMT / VHT Use of VMT / VHT per household
