Modelling future deforestation location – Working group meeting 4 - Macapa

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Summary

• Why spatial location of deforestation matters

• Example of spatial zoning in French Guiana

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Why location of deforestation matters

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Why location matters

• Socio-political perspective:

– Location of deforestation reflects the way each country (each part of the country) is developing

– Conservation issues (threats to some specific ecosystems)

• Modeling perspective:

– Location of deforestation is not independent from quantity of deforestation (and vice versa)

– 2 examples…

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Spatial autocorrelation

• For many reasons (accessibility, access to water or electricity, land management laws, family) people settles close to each other

• Areas close to previously deforested zones face bigger deforestation pressure

• Deforestation is a spatially autocorrelated process

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Processes leading to deforestation can be specific to certain areas of the

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Processes leading to deforestation can be specific to certain areas of the

territory

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Agriculture

Processes leading to deforestation can be specific to certain areas of the

territory

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Urban areas

Processes leading to deforestation can be specific to certain areas of the

territory

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Example of spatial zoning in French Guiana

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Model’s structure (ex. Guy. Fr.)

• Distinguish between different land status (administrative or not : NA, Protected areas, Presence of gold-greenstone, Permanent forest estate or other)

• With the help of local experts, identify important deforestation drivers for each kind of zone and their specific dynamics

• Possibility for testing different scenarios

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Protected Areas (Fr. Gui.) 26

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Normally => no deforestation should occur

Permanent Forest Estate 26

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Deforestation is possible under constraint

Gold mining (Fr. Gui., greenstone belt)

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Gold mining (buffer => alluvial) 26

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Superposition Greenstone-PAs 26

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There should be no deforestation but? => Illegal gold mining

Superposition Greenstone-PFE 26

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Deforestation due to legal gold mining is possible under authorization Illegal gold mining can also occur The process of gold mining might be considered as independant of the administrative boundaries

Quantification / Location

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Why distinguishing these processes?

• Create a model for forecasting the quantity of deforestation and a model to spatially allocate this deforestation

• Produce a more refine work on each of these processes

• But implies that we are able to distinguish the drivers that influence quantity and those which influence location

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Examples

• Quantity of deforestation : population increase, gold prices increase

• Location : creation of new roads, new protected areas etc.

• Population increase provokes more demand for land (same for gold mining), and people settles where more easy (impact of land management policies)

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Discussion : spatial and temporal dynamics of deforestation in each sector

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Unprotected areas

• Impacted by agriculture, and infrastructure building / urban expansion :

– Infrastructure / urban expansion => function of demography

– Agriculture => function of demand (demography) and incentives (credits)

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Protected areas

• No deforestation a priori in strictly protected areas

• In areas of sustainable development, agricultural growth can be a function of demography also, but to a lesser extent

• Illegal gold mining

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Permanent forest estate

• Few deforestation due to tracks building, but should remain covered by forest for a long time

• Deforestation is possible under constraint (demographic pressure or legal goldmining)

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Greenstone areas (gold mining)

• Quantity of deforestation due to gold mining could be a function of gold prices, political incentives for mining or repression against illegal gold miners

• Location of deforestation due to gold mining : greenstone, rivers (alluvial gold mining)

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Questions?

• Discussion on which are the areas of the country with specific dynamics of deforestation

• Which are the relevant drivers of deforestation in each of these areas?

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Thanks for your attention

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