Moderate Nor’easter: 2-Day Snow & Sleet Inland NE / New ...€¦ · • Double Volcanic Eruptions (Sinabung & Merapi) In Indonesia, And More Likely On The Way – Mount Sinabung

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Advanced Forecasting Corporation [AFC] Crossing New Thresholds®

Copyright © AFC 1993-2013 Confidential :: For Professional AFCrisk

Members Distribution Of This Weather Risk Management Intelligence

To Third Parties Is Strictly Prohibited


USA Meteorological Intelligence® Climate Change Threat Prediction Earth-Shift Hazard Hotspots Weather / Solar Risk Management


Members Distribution Of This Weather Risk Management Intelligence To

Third Parties Is Strictly Prohibited

Weekly Hazard Outlook Briefing

• Week Of

Mon Nov 25, 2013

Long Range Through March 2014

Moderate Nor’easter: 2-Day Snow & Sleet Inland NE / New England ● Flooding Rain Up Eastern Seaboard & In SE ● Increasingly Bitter Temps In Rockies & Plains Next 2 Weeks

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To Third Parties Is Strictly Prohibited BOTTOM LINE: Damage amounts are “just” infrastructure; reports don’t tally “cost” of economic livelihood loss.

Official List Underestimates Some, Including Aussie Drought; Likely Double $1B Disasters

http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/Documents/20131107_if_october_global_recap.pdf

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• The list to the right is tallied $1 billion disasters – but in our best estimation and review – greatly underestimates the real devastation caused by Mother Nature each year. • There are DOZENS of disasters that are categorized as losses of hundreds of millions of dollars, but many of those, when you include the economic livelihood destroyed by the loss of infrastructure, the “damages” to rebuilding that community / city is far higher. For example, the true loss of the Australian drought (especially hitting New South Wales) has been several billion dollars, but is ‘only’ categorized as “250million+” under official reports. Impacts to this are far-reaching. • Therefore, if you take 36 billion-dollar disasters, that is one every 10 days (and that of course does not include what is coming in December). However, if you take all the dozens and dozens of multi-million dollar disasters, we see literally a disaster every 10 hours or on average a couple a day! This goes to show you how climate risk is so important.

Weekly Tutorial: Meteorological Analysis / Planetary Threat Associated Notes

KEY TAKEAWAY THIS WEEK: Global Recap On Catastrophes: Averaging One Every 10 HOURS

Sadly The Official Roster Does Not Include Environmental Disasters Like Fukushima • For disasters that are ongoing, and that have a ‘tally’ year over year, in the costs, the official list ought to have show these at the top of the list, or at least put them in a separate list to show the immense severity. This is especially the case with the Fukushima Daiichi disaster, where costs are skyrocketing into at least $300 billion dollars, rising every day.

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Higher Risk Solar Threat In November: Sun Like Earth, Energy Conveyor Belts

Nov 25, 2013 UPDATE: Solar flares, as expected by late November, are decreasing mainly because the number of sunspots are also decreasing. However, there is still a likely another one or two more additional CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) before the beginning of December. The next concentration is Comet Ison: this week, it will be making a close encounter with the sun (aka perihelion). The comet will likely survive, despite being heated-up to enormously high temperatures. Given its survival, in January ISON’s tail will begin to interfere with natural electromagnetics on Earth, with ironically, a higher threat of electrical grid failure in some regions than a moderately strong solar flare.

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NOV 25, 2013 IMPORTANT UPDATE: A lot of energy is going to likely northward from

Indonesia into Japan and even the Kamchatka Peninsula. Unfortunately, this

complicates matters because this predicted scenario puts an added elevated risk to

the eastern Honshu, Japan region and the TEPCO Reactor 4 rod removal operation –

just like the 7.1 did a month ago (which likely did do damage). Even though a delay in

this process is essential longer-term, we can hope that Japan knows of the higher

earthquake risks (at least based on seismograph algorithms) and cease the process

during those times. In the last week, some very interesting activity occurred in the

Scotia Sea; there was never any tsunami risk from this due to its shallow depth quakes

(compared to Fiji for example), but we will do more research to see why this region

was this intensely active because it had not happened before. North America is

relatively quiet at this time; we are not expecting any immediate change in this status.

Ranked Predicted Tectonic Hotspots; Past Week’s Earthquakes (Circles)

Purple triangulated hotspots indicate likely most active tectonic areas in the

next 10 days. Ranked (1 = highest quake threat zone; 10 = least prominent threat).

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• Increasing rain

down the Pacific NW Coast, and increasingly colder with rain to snow over the next 10 days.

• Mainly dry Plains,

and increasingly colder into next week.

• Cold rain, mixing with ice, sleet and snow far into TX.

Nov 25 – Dec 02, 2013

North America Flood Intensity Disaster Risk Assessment Prediction Map Key

• Heavy snow for New England w/ windblown mixed precip at the coast.

• “Snain” (rain-snow) cut-off in the NE, w/ Nor’easter’s various impacts (energy, transportation).

• Heavy rain, increasing chills into the Southeastern States.

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Jetstream

USA Average Weekly Temp Dev From Norm (F): Nov 25 – Dec 03, 2013

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Above normal precipitation

Bouts of heavier precip

Significant storminess

Larger-scale event with bigger impacts

Some severe precip amts; potential disaster

Red/orange = no threat (exceedingly dry); white = average precip for the period Slide 7

USA Flood / Storm Risk Hi-Resolution Forecast: Nov 25 – Dec 03, 2013

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STORMS & FLOOD OUTLOOK: 11/25/13 – 12/03/13 STORMS & FLOOD OUTLOOK: 12/04/13 – 12/12/13

AVG TEMPS OUTLOOK: 11/25/13 – 12/03/13 AVG TEMPS OUTLOOK: 12/04/13 – 12/12/13

Cold pushes further S into TX; bitter North Green-blue freezing line: cold pushes S & E

Nor’easter: heavy precip south and east Another South/East storm in action!

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USA Wet-Dry Precision Gradient Deviations

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Current Situations Of Interest: Past Conditions Causing Circumstances Now

• Mount Etna Likely To Continue Erupting – Mt. Etna is ‘connected’ electromagnetically to Japan’s seismic zone, with the science that the lithosphere on Earth is all connected like an under-the-ground telephone communications system box. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/mount-etna-erupts-showers-volcanic-ash-on-towns/2013/11/23/1b5833a2-5464-11e3-9ee6-2580086d8254_story.html. • The Power Of Magnetics: Now Another Typhoon Hit Coming In Same Area Of Eastern India – one of the ‘laws’ of magnetics is attraction, and once a storm has ‘laid down’ a path of magnetic ‘beads’, those beads then attract another storm in the atmospheric world of ionic transferences (negative causing storms; positive causing drought). http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/cyclone-helen-changes-course-threat-of-successor-looms/article5375202.ece. • California Drought To Persist – Winter is likely to offer little relief for parched California, as even normal amounts of rain and snow wouldn’t be enough to pull the State out of its persistent drought. http://www.capitalpress.com/article/20131122/ARTICLE/131129963. • Too Much Emphasis On Drought – Just some dryness is called drought now by NOAA. http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/latest/Calif-drought-worst-since-2007-232848141.html

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Short-Range Risk Situations: On Our ‘RADAR’, Next 30+ Days

• Rare November Tropical Cyclone To Impact Australia – It is VERY RARE to get a November cyclone near Australia. We predict a cyclone to hit Queensland in January. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/rare-tropical-cyclone-australi/20180895. • Thanksgiving Nor’easter: A Named Powerful Storm, Boreas, That Hit The West USA Will Now Hit The Southern States Then East USA – Over the next 2 weeks, a couple of powerful storms will hit many major areas of the Southern then Eastern US States with major impacts on energy (aka: colder) and retail, construction and transportation. http://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/dead-as-storm-sweeps-west/article_a5e78c9e-dc84-555f-a3c0-dcb63f2f2b58.html. • Major Drought In Northern NSW, Australia, To Get Worse – Even though Eastern NSW will see rains, the northern portions will not see much more than a few scant showers. http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/drought-returns-to-haunt-farmers-in-northwest-nsw-20131123-2y2md.html. • The Same “Equal Chances” Garbage Based Upon La Nina Or El Nino – “This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the lack of an El Niño or La Niña event. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2585.

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Short-Range Risk Situations: On Our ‘RADAR’, Next 30+ Days

• Temporary Structures Of Fukushima Area Crumble, Sway – Due to the high frequency and intensity of earthquakes (as well as typhoons that crossed eastern Japan), in the past 6 months, this tells a lot more than what is actually being reported. It is likely that further damage has happened also to the nuclear reactors, especially number 4. http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/auckland/news/nbint/1334146904-homes-of-fukushima-quake-survivors-crumble. • Double Volcanic Eruptions (Sinabung & Merapi) In Indonesia, And More Likely On The Way – Mount Sinabung is getting more violent. It is THIS volcano that AFC believes could be the mega-volcanic eruption (as big or bigger than Pinatubo) that will cause cooling especially in the Northern Hemisphere, in 2014-2015. http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/9414237/Double-eruptions-in-Indonesia and http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/11/19/hundreds-villagers-flee-mount-merapi-eruptions.html. • Volcano Under Antarctica Causing Ice / Glacial Melting, NOT Carbon Dioxide – Not often see in the MSM, this is the REAL REASON for glacial melting. Both the North Pole & South Pole are volcanic zones; fissures open-up and allow huge amounts of heat and gases to escape, thereby melting the ice. http://www.nbcnews.com/science/volcano-under-antarctic-ice-may-erupt-accelerate-melting-2D11603371.

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Updated Nov 25, ’13; Extended TEMPS: Standard Deviation / 100

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December 2013 January 2014

February 2014 March 2014

Scale: 100 = 3-5°F / ~

2-3°C

Notable Impacts @

> 70

Red = warmer

Blue = cooler

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To Third Parties Is Strictly Prohibited Slide 14

Scale: 100 = 3-5” / ~

100mm

Notable Impacts @

> 80

Orange / red = drier

Green = wetter

Updated Nov 25, ’13; Extended PRECIP: Standard Deviation / 100

December 2013 January 2014

February 2014 March 2014