Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, December 30, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
FROM EQUITY RESEARCH
Danareksa Research Institute: December 2019 Inflation
Outlook: Seasonally Higher
After the monthly inflation of 0.14% mom in November 2019, we project higher inflationary pressure in December. Surging prices in several inflation components due to seasonal events, will lift the monthly inflation rate. In December, the wholesale prices of domestic goods rose 0.17% after recording a 0.07% increase in the earlier month, and the WPI manufacturing and imported goods rose by 0.3% and 1.0% respectively. Against this backdrop, we foresee inflation of 0.44% mom in December 2019, leaving the yoy inflation rate stable at 2.82%.
To see the full version of this report, please click here
December 2019 Consumer Confidence: The Highest Level
in 15 Years
In December 2019, Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
rose further. The CCI increased from 98.8 to 104.9, touching the highest level since December 2004. The two main CCI components
both rose: the Present Situations Index (PSI) surged by 9.3% mom
to 89.6 and the Expectations Index (EI) went up 4.5% mom to 116.5. Consumers are also more upbeat on the outlook for their
family incomes over the next 6 months. Consumer buying plans improved as indicated by the increase in the buying intentions index
to 202.3 (+8.8% yoy), mainly from five categories of goods: cars,
houses, audio-visual equipment, gold and livestock.
To see the full version of this report, please click here
MARKET NEWS MACROECONOMY
▪ Bank Indonesia: December’s monthly inflation rate below 5 years average
SECTOR
▪ Retail: 900VA tariff adjustment to be delayed
PREVIOUS REPORT ▪ Surya Citra Media: Staying Resilient
▪ United Tractors: Komatsu sales remain soft in November 2019 ▪ BTPN Syariah: Fully valued
▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Lower monthly sales
▪ Media Nusantara Citra: Collabs and Digital as the Drivers ▪ Semen Indonesia: On track to meet our targets
▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: 4Q19 Slower as Expected ▪ Astra International: Solid market share above 50% in
November 2019 ▪ Bukit Asam: Higher production to support earnings
▪ November Outlook: Picking Up
▪ Cigarette: Navigating strong headwinds ▪ Construction: Moving in the right direction
▪ Puradelta Lestari : Double-edged sword ▪ Telco: Year-end Bonanza with content
▪ Bank Mandiri: Maintaining its focus
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 6,306 0.3 1.8 350
Thailand 1,573 0.3 0.6 696
Philippines 7,873 1.3 5.4 103
Malaysia 1,604 (0.6) (5.1) 363
Singapore 3,222 0.2 5.0 279
Regional
China 2,982 (0.0) 19.6 39,776
Hong Kong 27,864 (0.2) 7.8 4,101
Japan 23,783 (0.2) 18.8 5,115
Korea 2,190 (0.6) 7.3 4,075
Taiwan 12,008 0.3 23.4 3,017
India 41,461 (0.4) 15.0 222
Nasdaq 8,953 0.1 34.9 44,852
Dow Jones 28,515 (0.1) 22.2 3,820
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318
Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454
Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87
Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338
Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908
Regional
China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889
Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093
Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278
Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790
Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534
India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495
Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797
Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,979 0.2 0.8 2.9
BI7DRRR % 5.00 - - (1.0)
10y Gov Indo bond 7.14 (0.1) 0.1 (0.9)
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9
BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0)
10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9)
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 67 1.1 (2.1) (34.8)
Gold US$/toz 1,500 (0.0) 2.6 16.9
Nickel US$/mt.ton 14,270 (0.1) (2.2) 34.6
Tin US$/mt.ton 17,127 (1.0) 4.9 (12.3)
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,351 0.1 (7.3) (0.6)
Corn US$/mt.ton 144 (0.3) 6.1 8.3
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 61 0.1 4.8 34.8
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 67 1.2 6.0 24.9
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,876 (0.3) 10.3 47.3
Rubber USd/kg 144 0.8 1.8 15.3
Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5
Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 (0.9) (2.7) (0.4)
Sugar US$/MT 359 0.4 5.6 8.0
Wheat US$/ton 147 0.3 4.3 (2.3)
Soy Oil US$/lb 34 0.3 9.7 23.0
SoyBean US$/by 937 0.3 4.4 6.1
Source: Bloomberg
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0)
Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2
Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6
Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1)
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7
Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8
Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6
Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5
Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5
Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6
Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1)
Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9
Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3)
Source: Bloomberg
•
•
•
•
CPI Outlook
✓
✓
✓
✓
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Consumer Confidence
Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, December 30, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
MACROECONOMY Bank Indonesia: December’s monthly inflation rate below 5 years average
The Chairman of Bank Indonesia (BI) states that monthly inflation rate as of 4th week of December reached 0.55%, and the annual inflation rate of 2.93%. This monthly inflation rate is still below 5-year average. As such, BI expects
that the inflation rate will remain manageable until year-end 2019. The monthly inflation rate is contributed by 0.07% increase in transportation price, 0.08% increase in price of eggs, and 0.08% increase in price of onion.
Meanwhile, some food prices decreased in mom basis such as: 0.05% decrease in red chillies, and 0.02% decrease
in cayenne peppers. (Kontan)
SECTOR Retail: 900VA tariff adjustment to be delayed
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources earmarked 900VA tariff adjustment on c6mn household will be suspended
to maintain stability in purchasing power, subsidy budget in the 2020 government budget might feel some impact, but the ministry is pushing for efficiency in PLN to curb the addition to state budget. Efficiency in PLN will mainly
come from fuel sourcing which impact the COGS of the state electricity company. Worth noting the increase would mean an additional IDR29k/month/household for electricity. (Kontan)
Comment: We believe the impact is quite sizeable towards lower income earners, as stripping off 900VA adjustment will result in net disposable income for minimum wage earners, specifically those who smokes. (Andreas Kenny)
MARKET NEWS
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap
Target Rp Bn 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
Danareksa Universe 3,894,175 232,067 255,404 229 252 5.8% 10.1% 16.8 15.2 12.6 11.5 2.5 2.3 15.8 16.0
Auto 280,349 20,646 21,942 415 441 -4.7% 6.3% 13.6 12.8 9.2 8.5 1.9 1.8 14.6 14.4
Astra International ASII BUY 6,925 8,000 280,349 20,646 21,942 510 542 503 525 -4.7% 6.3% 13.6 12.8 9.2 8.5 1.9 1.8 14.6 14.4
Banks 1,426,758 79,661 89,561 606 682 9.3% 12.4% 17.9 15.9 2.8 2.5 16.3 16.5
BCA BBCA HOLD 33,475 33,000 825,326 29,265 32,883 1,187 1,334 1,187 1,334 13.2% 12.4% 28.2 25.1 N/A N/A 4.8 4.2 18.1 17.9
BNI BBNI BUY 7,925 10,000 147,791 15,905 17,363 853 931 853 931 5.9% 9.2% 9.3 8.5 N/A N/A 1.2 1.1 13.9 13.6
Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 2,150 2,700 22,769 1,246 2,203 118 208 118 208 -55.6% 76.8% 18.3 10.3 N/A N/A 0.9 0.9 5.1 8.6
Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 7,750 9,000 361,667 28,014 31,140 600 667 600 667 12.0% 11.2% 12.9 11.6 N/A N/A 1.8 1.7 14.8 15.1
BTPN BTPN HOLD 3,270 3,500 26,647 2,582 2,870 317 352 317 352 31.2% 11.2% 10.3 9.3 N/A N/A 0.9 0.8 10.8 9.3
BTPS BTPS HOLD 4,210 4,200 32,433 1,296 1,651 168 214 168 214 34.3% 27.4% 25.0 19.6 N/A N/A 6.6 5.4 29.1 30.1
BPD Jatim BJTM BUY 675 800 10,127 1,353 1,451 90 97 90 97 7.4% 7.2% 7.5 7.0 N/A N/A 1.1 1.0 15.4 15.4
Cement 145,309 3,395 4,183 353 435 -19.6% 23.2% 42.8 34.7 16.2 12.7 2.6 2.5 6.2 7.4
Indocement INTP HOLD 19,775 21,600 72,796 1,626 1,823 442 495 442 495 41.9% 12.1% 44.8 39.9 21.8 23.6 3.1 3.0 6.9 7.7
Semen Indonesia SMGR BUY 12,225 17,500 72,513 1,769 2,360 298 398 298 398 -42.5% 33.4% 41.0 30.7 13.9 8.8 2.3 2.2 5.6 7.2
Cigarettes 350,215 24,398 26,421 206 223 14.4% 8.3% 14.4 13.3 9.8 8.9 4.1 3.8 29.3 29.6
Gudang Garam GGRM BUY 53,250 60,850 102,458 10,094 11,042 5,246 5,739 5,246 5,739 29.5% 9.4% 10.2 9.3 7.1 6.4 2.0 1.9 21.2 21.0
HM Sampoerna HMSP HOLD 2,130 2,100 247,758 14,304 15,379 123 132 123 132 5.7% 7.5% 17.3 16.1 12.1 11.2 6.9 6.6 40.1 41.9
Construction 102,771 10,742 12,000 144 161 -7.7% 11.7% 9.6 8.6 8.93 7.89 1.2 1.0 12.7 12.7
Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 2,010 3,400 18,030 2,320 2,738 259 305 271 318 34.1% 18.0% 7.8 6.6 4.5 3.3 1.1 0.9 14.7 15.3
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY 1,595 2,300 9,889 1,311 1,455 211 235 245 280 -12.7% 11.0% 7.5 6.8 4.7 4.3 0.7 0.6 9.8 9.9
Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 1,195 2,300 4,255 733 847 206 238 288 332 13.8% 15.6% 5.8 5.0 4.7 4.3 0.6 0.5 10.7 10.4
Waskita Karya WSKT BUY 1,480 2,900 20,089 2,903 3,215 214 237 214 237 -26.7% 10.7% 6.9 6.2 10.3 9.8 1.0 0.9 15.2 15.0
Waskita Beton WSBP BUY 308 410 8,119 776 899 29 34 29 34 -29.8% 15.9% 10.5 9.0 11.4 9.6 1.0 0.9 9.7 10.8
Wika Beton WTON BUY 450 680 3,922 507 574 58 66 58 66 4.2% 13.2% 7.7 6.8 5.0 4.5 1.1 1.0 15.6 15.8
Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 5,300 6,700 38,467 2,192 2,272 302 313 302 313 -0.5% 3.6% 17.5 16.9 17.1 15.0 2.0 1.8 12.3 11.4
Consumer 596,406 20,591 22,423 308 335 1.0% 8.9% 29.0 26.6 18.1 16.4 7.4 6.8 26.8 26.6
Indofood CBP ICBP BUY 11,175 12,900 130,322 5,157 5,590 442 479 442 479 12.7% 8.4% 25.3 23.3 19.9 18.5 5.4 4.8 22.5 21.8
Indofood INDF BUY 7,925 8,800 69,585 4,643 5,272 529 600 529 600 11.4% 13.5% 15.0 13.2 6.9 6.2 1.9 1.8 13.3 14.0
Unilever UNVR HOLD 42,800 46,000 326,564 7,465 8,009 978 1,050 978 1,050 -18.1% 7.3% 43.7 40.8 30.3 28.4 43.0 42.8 98.3 105.2
Kino Indonesia KINO BUY 3,430 5,000 4,900 514 295 360 206 360 206 242.3% -42.6% 9.5 16.6 11.7 10.6 1.9 1.7 21.4 10.8
Mayora Indah MYOR BUY 2,050 3,050 45,835 2,010 2,362 90 106 90 107 17.1% 17.5% 22.8 19.4 12.7 11.1 4.7 4.0 22.1 22.0
Sido Muncul SIDO HOLD 1,280 1,300 19,200 803 895 54 60 54 60 21.0% 11.5% 23.9 21.5 20.2 17.9 6.3 5.9 26.9 28.3
Healthcare 83,872 2,784 3,032 183 204 223.8% 11.7% 30.1 27.7 18.3 16.8 4.0 3.5 13.8 13.4
Kalbe Farma KLBF BUY 1,615 1,800 75,703 2,620 2,851 56 61 56 61 6.6% 8.8% 28.9 26.6 18.5 17.0 4.7 4.2 17.0 16.6
Phapros PEHA BUY 1,030 1,200 865 96 110 115 130 115 130 -27.2% 13.7% 9.0 7.9 5.1 4.0 1.0 0.4 11.7 7.7
Kimia Farma KAEF HOLD 1,315 1,780 7,304 67 71 12 13 12 13 -83.9% 6.5% 108.9 102.2 21.8 19.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8
Heavy Equipment 80,851 11,318 10,808 3,034 2,897 1.7% -4.5% 7.1 7.5 3.4 3.3 1.3 1.2 19.9 17.0
United Tractors UNTR BUY 21,675 28,000 80,851 11,318 10,808 3,034 2,897 2,969 2,817 1.7% -4.5% 7.1 7.5 3.4 3.3 1.3 1.2 19.9 17.0
Industrial Estate 19,606 1,742 1,930 28 31 82.1% 10.8% 11.3 10.2 8.1 6.9 1.2 1.2 11.2 12.0
Puradelta Lestari DMAS HOLD 300 300 14,459 1,159 1,352 24 28 24 28 133.7% 16.7% 12.5 10.7 11.6 9.3 2.0 2.0 16.1 18.6
Bekasi Fajar BEST BUY 214 350 2,065 477 359 49 37 49 37 12.9% -24.7% 4.3 5.8 4.1 5.2 0.5 0.4 10.9 7.6
Surya Semesta SSIA BUY 655 1,000 3,082 106 219 23 47 23 47 178.9% 106.6% 29.1 14.1 5.4 3.9 0.8 0.7 2.7 5.3
Media 44,334 3,348 3,555 115 122 11.0% 6.2% 13.2 12.5 8.8 8.0 2.6 2.3 21.5 19.9
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN BUY 1,610 1,400 22,985 2,086 2,150 146 151 139 151 36.3% 3.1% 11.0 10.7 7.3 6.6 2.0 1.8 19.5 17.5
Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 1,445 1,600 21,349 1,262 1,405 85 95 85 95 -15.0% 11.3% 16.9 15.2 11.8 10.6 4.1 3.6 25.7 25.3
Mining 158,605 15,814 16,270 178 183 -9.7% 2.9% 10.0 9.7 4.5 4.3 1.1 1.0 11.1 11.0
Adaro Energy ADRO BUY 1,580 1,700 50,538 6,132 5,696 192 178 192 178 1.9% -7.1% 8.2 8.9 3.4 3.4 0.9 0.9 11.4 10.2
Timah TINS BUY 825 1,700 6,144 899 976 121 131 121 131 84.2% 8.6% 6.8 6.3 4.4 4.0 0.9 0.8 13.1 13.1
Vale Indonesia INCO BUY 3,530 4,400 35,075 680 1,311 68 132 68 132 -22.6% 92.9% 51.6 26.7 11.0 8.2 1.3 1.2 2.5 4.7
Aneka Tambang ANTM BUY 835 1,200 20,066 807 856 34 36 34 36 -7.7% 6.1% 24.9 23.4 9.3 9.3 1.0 1.0 4.0 4.2
Bukit Asam PTBA BUY 2,650 4,400 30,530 4,832 4,977 419 432 419 432 -3.8% 3.0% 6.3 6.1 4.3 4.2 1.8 1.6 29.2 27.1
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG BUY 11,225 17,000 12,683 2,053 2,030 1,817 1,797 1,817 1,797 -45.5% -1.1% 6.2 6.2 2.4 2.2 1.0 1.0 15.2 15.7
Harum Energy HRUM BUY 1,320 1,500 3,569 411 423 152 156 152 156 -10.8% 3.0% 8.7 8.4 0.7- 1.1- 0.8 0.8 9.4 9.4
Plantation 37,938 578 1,676 66 192 -67.3% 190.0% 65.6 22.6 15.1 9.1 1.4 1.3 2.1 6.0
Astra Agro Lestari AALI BUY 14,500 13,000 27,908 440 1,201 229 624 229 624 -69.4% 173.0% 63.4 23.2 14.9 9.4 1.5 1.4 2.3 6.2
PP London Sumatra LSIP BUY 1,470 1,550 10,030 138 475 20 70 20 70 -58.3% 244.2% 72.7 21.1 15.8 8.1 1.2 1.2 1.7 5.6
Poultry 133,489 5,256 6,551 173 216 -25.0% 24.6% 25.4 20.4 15.1 13.0 4.0 3.5 16.3 18.2
Charoen Pokphand CPIN HOLD 6,875 6,500 112,736 3,509 4,309 214 263 215 262 -23.0% 22.8% 32.1 26.2 20.7 17.7 5.4 4.8 17.5 19.3
Japfa Comfeed JPFA BUY 1,575 2,050 18,469 1,465 1,882 125 160 135 171 -32.4% 28.5% 12.6 9.8 7.5 6.6 1.8 1.5 14.5 16.7
Malindo Feedmill MAIN BUY 1,020 1,500 2,284 282 360 126 161 127 161 -1.0% 27.7% 8.1 6.3 6.4 5.7 1.0 0.9 13.5 15.3
Property 90,625 6,837 7,154 57 60 6.2% 4.6% 13.3 12.7 9.0 8.7 1.2 1.1 9.4 9.1
Alam Sutera ASRI BUY 240 320 4,716 663 953 34 49 41 56 -31.7% 43.7% 7.1 4.9 7.9 6.4 0.5 0.4 6.8 9.0
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1,275 1,600 24,540 2,178 2,201 113 114 113 114 68.4% 1.1% 11.3 11.1 8.3 9.3 0.9 0.8 8.0 7.5
Ciputra Development CTRA BUY 1,045 1,350 19,396 848 1,056 46 57 46 57 -28.5% 24.5% 22.9 18.4 12.4 10.4 1.3 1.2 5.8 6.8
Pakuw on Jati PWON BUY 575 700 27,692 2,638 2,355 55 49 54 51 3.7% -10.7% 10.5 11.8 7.0 7.1 1.9 1.6 19.2 14.9
Summarecon SMRA HOLD 990 1,250 14,283 510 589 35 41 35 41 13.7% 15.5% 28.0 24.2 11.2 10.6 2.0 1.8 7.2 7.8
Utility 54,543 3,866 4,075 159 168 -11.9% 5.4% 14.1 13.4 5.5 5.0 1.4 1.3 10.2 10.2
PGN PGAS BUY 2,250 2,700 54,543 3,866 4,075 159 168 171 179 -11.9% 5.4% 14.1 13.4 5.5 5.0 1.4 1.3 10.2 10.2
Retail 45,948 3,164 3,319 117 123 19.4% 4.9% 14.5 13.8 9.6 8.9 4.2 3.6 30.2 28.0
Ramayana RALS BUY 1,065 1,450 7,557 650 668 92 94 92 94 10.7% 2.8% 11.6 11.3 6.7 6.2 1.8 1.7 16.3 15.6
Matahari Department Store LPPF BUY 4,210 4,100 11,809 1,448 1,491 516 532 516 532 32.0% 3.0% 8.2 7.9 4.9 4.6 5.5 4.0 73.0 58.8
Ace Hardw are ACES SELL 1,550 1,550 26,583 1,066 1,160 62 68 62 68 10.5% 8.8% 24.9 22.9 19.8 17.7 5.6 5.0 23.7 23.0
Telco 513,884 23,817 26,809 126 142 57.0% 12.6% 21.6 19.2 6.5 5.9 3.4 3.2 16.5 17.2
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM BUY 3,990 5,100 395,258 21,651 23,964 219 242 219 242 20.1% 10.7% 18.3 16.5 6.4 5.8 3.7 3.3 21.0 21.1
Indosat ISAT BUY 2,940 4,400 15,976 (1,646) (1,652) (303) (304) (294) (304) 31.5% -0.4% (9.7) (9.7) 4.2 4.4 1.7 2.0 (15.9) (19.0)
XL Axiata EXCL BUY 3,250 4,100 34,736 509 708 48 66 48 66 -115.4% 39.1% 68.2 49.1 5.4 4.6 1.8 1.8 2.7 3.7
Tow er Bersama TBIG BUY 1,230 1,070 27,868 826 1,029 36 45 36 45 21.4% 24.6% 33.7 27.1 12.5 11.7 6.0 5.5 20.5 21.0
Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 785 960 40,046 2,477 2,760 49 54 49 54 14.6% 11.4% 16.2 14.5 9.4 8.6 4.3 3.8 28.6 27.9
Transportation 2,186 242 283 34 40 7.6% 16.9% 9.0 7.7 3.7 2.6 1.0 0.9 11.0 12.1
Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal IPCC BUY 685 1,350 1,246 155 195 85 107 85 285 -8.8% 25.8% 8.0 6.4 3.5 2.3 1.1 1.0 13.6 16.0
Jasa Armada Indonesia IPCM BUY 178 325 941 87 88 16 17 16 494 58.2% 1.1% 10.8 10.7 4.2 3.7 0.9 0.8 8.1 7.9
EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) ROE
Equity
Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth PER (x)
Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, December 30, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
LEADERS Price as on Code 27-Dec-19 26-Dec-19 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Kimia Farma KAEF 1,315 1,145 14.8 (3.7) (24.2) (49.4) HOLD
Semen Baturaja SMBR 444 430 3.3 (4.3) 13.8 (74.6) SELL
Erajaya Swasembada ERAA 1,795 1,740 3.2 7.2 34.0 (18.4) BUY
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 144 140 2.9 5.1 14.3 (5.3) SELL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 14,500 14,100 2.8 7.0 15.1 22.6 BUY
Tower Bersama TBIG 1,230 1,200 2.5 7.9 12.3 70.8 BUY
Surya Citra Media SCMA 1,445 1,410 2.5 3.2 20.4 (22.7) BUY
PP London Sumatra LSIP 1,470 1,435 2.4 5.8 7.3 17.6 BUY
Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI 1,055 1,030 2.4 1.9 3.9 31.1 BUY
Indofood INDF 7,925 7,800 1.6 (0.3) (0.3) 6.4 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS Price as on Code 27-Dec-19 26-Dec-19 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Ciputra Development CTRA 1,045 1,060 (1.4) (1.9) 4.0 3.5 BUY
Vale Indonesia INCO 3,530 3,580 (1.4) 2.3 17.7 8.3 BUY
Summarecon Agung SMRA 990 1,000 (1.0) (3.9) (2.9) 23.0 HOLD
Malindo Feedmill MAIN 1,020 1,030 (1.0) (0.5) 0.5 (26.9) BUY
Bekasi Fajar BEST 214 216 (0.9) 0.9 11.5 2.9 BUY
Indofood CBP ICBP 11,175 11,275 (0.9) (2.8) (1.3) 6.9 BUY
Wika Beton WTON 450 454 (0.9) 0.9 3.7 19.7 BUY
Semen Indonesia SMGR 12,225 12,325 (0.8) (2.2) 6.8 6.3 BUY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,275 1,285 (0.8) 1.2 2.0 1.6 BUY
Surya Semesta SSIA 655 660 (0.8) (3.7) (3.0) 31.0 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, December 30, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PREVIOUS REPORTS
▪ Surya Citra Media: Staying Resilient
▪ United Tractors: Komatsu sales remain soft in November 2019 ▪ BTPN Syariah: Fully valued
▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Lower monthly sales ▪ Media Nusantara Citra: Collabs and Digital as the Drivers
▪ Semen Indonesia: On track to meet our targets
▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: 4Q19 Slower as Expected ▪ Astra International: Solid market share above 50% in November 2019
▪ Bukit Asam: Higher production to support earnings ▪ November Outlook: Picking Up
▪ Cigarette: Navigating strong headwinds
▪ Construction: Moving in the right direction ▪ Puradelta Lestari : Double-edged sword
▪ Telco: Year-end Bonanza with content ▪ Bank Mandiri: Maintaining its focus
▪ Surya Semesta Internusa: Winter is over
▪ Pembangunan Perumahan: Cutting our targets ▪ Bank Negara Indonesia: Focusing on its funding cost
▪ Plantation: Dry and Feverish is Good For CPO Price ▪ November 2019 Inflation Update: Lower than Expected
▪ Telco: Takeaways, Kemkominfo says take action ▪ SIDO MUNCUL: Solid Performance
▪ Waskita Beton Precast: Seeking greater independence
▪ Matahari Department Store: The Discounter, Discounted ▪ November 2019 Inflation Outlook: Remaining Mild
▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Starting a new chapter ▪ Kalbe Farma : Healthy outlook on strong government support
▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: Weak recognition from property development
▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: Next year should be better ▪ United Tractors : Soft Komatsu sales volume in October 2019
▪ Adaro Energy: 9M19: Supported by Kestrel acquisitions ▪ Distribusi Voucher Nusantara: Solid positioning promises fast growth
▪ Unilever Indonesia: Steady growth on the cards ▪ October Update: Posting a Surplus Again
▪ Plantation: Tailwinds For the Industry
▪ Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur: On a sustainable growth path ▪ Indofood Sukses Makmur: Still a solid value play
▪ Astra International: Market share is buoyant at 53% in 10M19 ▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Upside emerges
▪ Tower Bersama Infrastructure: Solid operational effort but earnings fell short
▪ October Outlook: Modest Improvement Expected ▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: Impacted by Promotions Timing Difference
Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, December 30, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
Gedung BRI II Lt.23, Jl. Jenderal Sudirman Kav.44-46 Bendungan Hilir, Tanah Abang – Jakarta Pusat 10210 Indonesia Indonesia Tel (62 21) 50914100 Fax (62 21) 2520990
Equity Research Team S
Sales team
Maria Renata
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3513 Construction, Toll Road, Cement
Stefanus Darmagiri
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3530 Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip, Metal
Natalia Sutanto
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco
Niko Margaronis
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3512 Telco, Tower, Utilities
Helmy Kristanto
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3500 Head of Research, Strategy
Eka Savitri
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3506 Banking
Victor Stefano
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3503 Poultry, Property, Industrial Estate
Ehrliech Suhartono
(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3132
Laksmita Armandani
(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3125
Vera Ongyono
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3120
Tuty Sutopo
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3121
Wisnu Budhiargo
(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3117
Upik Yuzarni
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3137
Adeline Solaiman
(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3503
Rendy Ben Philips
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3148
Ignatius Teguh Prayoga
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3511 Port
Andreas Kenny
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3509 Retail, Media, Plantation
Thalia Kadharusman
(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3124
Muhammad Naufal Yunas
[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3507 Research Associate
Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, December 30, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
Economic Calendar
Date Time Event Period
21-Nov-19 Bank Indonesia 7D Reverse Repo 21-Nov
02-Dec-19 Markit Indonesia PMI Mfg Nov
02-Dec-19 CPI YoY Nov
02-Dec-19 CPI NSA MoM Nov
02-Dec-19 CPI Core YoY Nov
05-Dec-19 Consumer Confidence Index Nov
06-Dec-19 Net Foreign Assets IDR Nov
06-Dec-19 Foreign Reserves Nov
13-Dec-19 Local Auto Sales Nov
16-Dec-19 Exports YoY Nov
16-Dec-19 Imports YoY Nov
16-Dec-19 Trade Balance Nov
19-Dec-19 Bank Indonesia 7D Reverse Repo 19-Dec
Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information
or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof.
We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents
whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its
affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.
