Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Monitoring and analyzing natural disasters in Brazil
Jose A. MarengoCEMADEN
(Thanks to Osvaldo Moraes, Regina Alvala, Mario Mendiondo, Carlos de Angelis)
Finding solutions for urban resilience to nature’s challenges Brazilian – Finnish Workshop
Sao Paulo, SPNovember, 28 and 29 2016
Natural disasters related to climate (1995-2015)
Sub-título 24pt
Corpo 18pt
FONTE: CRED-UNISDR 2015
Catalyst for Recent Disaster Risk ReductionPolicies in Brazil
3
Source: IBGE, 2010
Over 5 million people, mostly poor andvulnerable, living in areas of high disaster riskin Brazilian cities
Urban Growth: change from rural to urban population
Natural disaster of 11-12 January 2011 in the mountains west of Rio: over 900
fatalities, 350 missing and thousands left homeless. A catalyst for
DRR policies focused on preventionCreation of CEMADEN
Towards an interdisciplinary perspective
• Understanding: what different type of data need to be collected? How to engage citizens?
• Forecasting: How to include emerging data in forecasting models and systems?
• Alerting: how to issue warnings in face of uncertainties? How to communicate risks?
4
Natural Disasters and Population
Source: IBGE, 2010
*Source: Brazilian Atlas of Natural Disasters 1991-2012
Governance & Policies for:• Disaster Risk Reduction and
Adaptation*• Urban Water Management• Climate Change, Agriculture and Water• Planning and Scenarios• Water State-of-the-Art in São Paulo State• Urban Planning• International Research Cooperation
Natural Disasters in Brazil: over 95% of disasters are climate related
6
Forest fires, Floods, Drought, Mass movements
Wildfires, Floods, Erosions Wildfires, Flash Floods,Floods, Droughts, Landslides,
Debris Flows
Droughts, Floods, Flash Floods
Flash Floods, Wind Storms, Hails, Landslides
Main Research Areas in Natural Disasters
Natural Disasters
Natural Disasters Modeling
Hydrology
Geology
Meteorology
Agrometeorology
Forest Fires
Post-2011 Sendai DRR Policy in Brazil: A Paradigm ShiftNational Plan for Risk Management and Response to Disasters
Prevention
Mapping andunderstanding risk
High resolution mapping ofrisk areas for 1000 municipalities
Building structuralresilience (slope, stabilization,
drainage and flood control)
Monitoring andwarning
Strengthening early warningnetworks
(e.g., 4 thousand automated raingauges, 9 weather radars,
300 riverflow sensors, data integrations, modeling, hazard prediction, etc.)
Response
Relief andrecovery
$ 8 billion over 4 years2012-2015
Fully Integrated System of DRR Disaster Risk Governance
...Towards a National Strategy for Disaster Risk
Management
CEMADEN
CIVIL DEFENSE
CENAD
Alert & Logistics
Monitoring and Early Warning
MS, GSI, MT, Army Force
INMET, INPE, DECEA/MD & STATE CENTRESHydrometeorology
information
MI, MCid e IBGEDisaster Risk &
Vulnerability Analyses
CPRMGeological
VulnerabilityMapping
ANAHydrologicalinformation
Contingency & Response Plans
UNIVERSITIES & RESEARCH INSTITUTES Knowledge transfer, methods and hypothesis-testing, applied research databases on natural
disasters (vulnerability, exposure, hazards, risks)
COMMUNITYLocal feedback
Multidisciplinary Team: • Geologists• Geographers• Engineers • Hydrologists • Meteorologists• IT professionals• Social scientists
Science, Technology and Innovation for a more resilient Society
Mission: Promote advanced topics of Science,
Technology and Innovation for disasterrisk prevention through appliedinterdisciplinary research, using
participatory public policies towards a more resilient society to disaster risks *
AppliedResearch &
Development
Infrastructure & Engineering
Operation(monitoring &
alerts)
ObservationalSensor Network
Multidisciplinarity
• Promotion of management mechanisms to integrateresearch, development tooperational alert systems
Information Technology and Data Sharing
Support IT infrastructureaccording to ISSO 20000
and Brazilian Law ofInformation Transparency
Innovation• Innovation leadership for
disaster risk reduction• Capacity building and training
towards innovation and leaps ofknowledge
Budget
Planning
Strategic planningaccording to internationaland national frameworks
Growing observationalsensor network, fully
operational and online
CEMADEN Observational Sensor Network
10* RoboticStations + 900*
Motion Sensors +135* Soil
Moisture Stations
+ 9 Radars
+ 4.750Online Rainfall
Stations
+ 286*Online
StreamflowStations
+ 100Online
Agrometeo. Platforms
+ 550 Online Stations
Soil Moisture andPrecipitation
All information and database are open & available for research & development through officially signing MoUs
Rede Observacional Ambiental do CEMADEN
“Community raingauge" pilot project
LOCAL ACTION: RAIN GAUGE AT LOCAL COMMUNITIES: A CITIZEN’S NETWORK FOR EARLY WARNING
>1000 raingauges installedin communities exposed to
high disaster risk
Enhancing risk perceptionand education for
sustainability
Weekly and monthly technical reports on Disaster Risk Reduction in the Brazilian territory
15
Observational network and number of alerts in Sao Paulo
Observational network and number of alerts in Sao Paulo
Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
Fonte:
Cemaden
Fonte: Cemaden
Fonte: Cemaden
Teresópolis, Rio de Janeiro Joinville, Santa Catarina
Campos do Jordão, São PauloSão Paulo, São Paulo
Mauá, São Paulo Fonte:
Cemaden
Fonte: Cemaden Fonte:
Cemaden
Building the risk scenarios
18
Issuing an Early Warning
19
Flood awareness using nowcasting and multi-source nowcasting(SHORT TERM FORECASTING): Modelagem Hidrológica Operacional com dados de radar meteorológico
17:00 16:00 18:00 19:00 20:00
. Bacia Urbana de Nova Friburgo – RJ (160 km²)
. Resolução espacial de 250 m x 250 m (mod. hidro. MHD-INPE)
1 km x 1km (radar met. Pico do Couto)
ALERTA 0017 Cemaden
PERIGOMHD - INPE
Vaz
ão (
m³/
s)
Tempo (h)
21:00 22:00
Estação
Conselheiro
Paulino -INEA
Science, Technology and Innovation for a more Society
Early Warning Systems for Disaster Risk Reduction of Hydrologic Extremes on Vulnerable Communities
Opportunities for Applied Research of SKILLED EARLY WARNINGS with MODELLING andCOMMUNITY FEEDBACKS
• Traditional approach :• Operational agent makes own alerts
and assimilation
• Alert warning strongly based onrecorded data, with few modelling
• Research not fully applied atoperation crisis room
• Alert evaluation with methodologicallimits
• Vulnerability features not fullyintegrated into alerts
• Spatial scale limited to prioritymunicipalities
• Interdisciplinary approach:• Automatic alert/assimilation supervised by
operators• Alert warning based on both records and
multisource, intensive nowcastingmodelling
• Interdisciplinary research fully applied atoperation room
• Alert evaluation replicable with local feedback (decentralization)
• Vulnerability features integrated at alertwarning and evaluation
• Spatial scale extended to “multi-risk”-prone areas
Drought Risk Reduction in NE Brazil
CEMADEN’s Monitoring Network of Agrometeorological Risks in NE Brazil
PCDAgro: ONLINE (GPRS) air temp., air humidity, precipitation, wind direction and velocity, solar radiation, net radiation flux, 4 soil depth: temp. & moisture
PC D A qua : O N L I N E ( G PR S) precipitation & 2-level depth of soil moisture
Figure 1. M onitor ing network of soil moisture in NE Brazil (Zeri et al, 2016).
Courtesy: Dr M. Zeri & A. P. Cunha - CEMADEN
Making emergency policies for disaster mitigation in NE Brazil
• Financial benefits for people affected by the drought;• Financial support for well drilling;• Distribution of water for population;• Etc;
23
Monitoring of drought Impacts by CEMADEN-MontlhyBulletin
Sao Francisco River basin: Weekly monitoring and early warning for risks of flow running to hydropower stations
Sistema Cantareira: Weekly monitoring and early warning for water supply system under drought risk
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
abr/15
mai/15
jun/15
jul/15
ago/15
set/15
out/15
nov/15
dez/15
jan/16
fev/16
mar/16
abr/16
mai/16
ObservedPrecipita
on
(rela
vetom
onthlyaverage,%)
Naturalriverflow(m
3/s)
Qsim(sinceApr.,2016)
Qsim.(sinceJan.,2016)
Qsim.(sinceOct.,2015)
Qsim(sinceJul.,2015)
Q.sim.(sinceApr.,2015)
Pmensal/PmédiaMensal
Qobs
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Precipita
ção(m
m)
VazãoAfluenteePrecipitaçãoDiáriasparaoSistemaCantareira14/julho/2015-29/julho/2015
PETA15x15km PMédia
PObservada PEta15(MHD)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
7/14/2015
7/15/2015
7/16/2015
7/17/2015
7/18/2015
7/19/2015
7/20/2015
7/21/2015
7/22/2015
7/23/2015
7/24/2015
7/25/2015
7/26/2015
7/27/2015
7/28/2015
7/29/2015
Vazãodiária(m
3 /s)
QMembro1 QMembro2 QMembro3 QMembro4
QMembro5 QMembro6 QETA15x15km QMédia
QObservada Eta15(MHD)
Sistema Cantareira: Weekley monitoring and early warning for water supply system under drought risk
27
Brazil FederalDisaster Risk Reduction Framework
• International cooperation in support of a post 2015 framework for disaster risk
• Governing Disaster Risk - Overcoming Challenges
• Public Investment in Disaster Risk Reduction
• Reducing Disaster Risk in Urban Settings
• Mobilizing Women’s Leadership in Disaster Risk Reduction
• Risk sensitive Investments
• Public Private Partnerships
• Inclusive Disaster Risk Management
• Risk Identification and Assessment
