Monsoons, Megawatts, and Monster Catfish

Conflict and Cooperation over Mainland Southeast Asia’s Transboundary RiversDarrin MageeHobart & William Smith Colleges

Asia’s water tower…Qinghai-Tibet

Plateau

… and powershed?

3

River as Untapped Resource Yunnan hydro development push since mid-1980s Lancang-Mekong

4800 km long (1200 in YN) 6 countries

Nu-Salween 2800 km long (600 in YN) 3 countries

Jinsha-Chang-Yangtze 6300 km long 9 Provinces + Tibet border

Now: 120 GW; 2020: 300 GW; Potential: 384 GW

Manwan Dam

Elevation (m)

Distance (km)

MW

JH

GLBMS

DCS

NZD

LTJ

JBWNL

TB

HD T

MK

GGQ

XW

Jinghong

Qujing

Lijiang

Kunming

Simao

Dali

Nu

River

GLB

JH

MS

NZD

DCSMW

XW

GGQ

0 75 150 225 300 375 km

Lancang Dams

Lancang Cascade

Yunnan Huaneng Lancang Hydro Co. One of five power conglomerates split off

from former Ministry of Electric Power Officially “stock company” but majority of

stocks are non-tradable Development begun in 1987; first dam

completed in 1993 (Manwan)

5

6

Middle Lancang River 澜沧江

7

Nu Cascade

~600 km

~1100 m

Songta4200 MW

307 m

Bingzhongluo1600 MW

55 m

Maji4200 MW

300 m

Lumadeng2000 MW

165 m

Fugong400 MW

60 m

Bijiang1500 MW

71 m

(Y)abiluo1800 MW

133 m

Liuku180 MW

36 m

Shitouzai440 MW

59 mLushui

2400 MW175 m

Saige1000 MW

79 mYansangshu

1000 MW84 m

Guangpo600 MW

58 m

Jinghong

Qujing

Lijiang

Kunming

Simao

Dali

Nu

River

GLB

JH

MS

NZD

DCSMW

XW

GGQ

0 75 150 225 300 375 km

Lancang Dams

Yunnan Huadian Nu River Hydro Co. One of five power conglomerates split off

from former Ministry of Electric Power Officially “stock company” but majority of

stocks are non-tradable Development halted in March 2004 by

Premier for failure to follow EIA procedures Ongoing “illegal” development halted again in

spring 2009

8

9

Middle Nu River 怒江

10

Policy Framework

Western Development Campaign (2001) Focus on resources and infrastructure

Send Western Electricity East (西电东送 ) Prioritized in 2001

Send Yunnan Power to Guangdong (滇电粤送 ) Ultra-high-voltage DC lines (800 kV) by 2010

Send Yunnan Electricity Outward (云电外送 ) Power sales to Vietnam since 2004, Thailand next

Pan-Pearl River Delta (凡珠三角 )

11

Three West-East Corridors (通道 )

Beijing /

Tianjin area

Shanghai / Zhejiang / Jiangsu area

Guangdong / PRD

Northern Corridor

From: Yalong Tsangpo

& Yellow

To: Capital area

Middle Corridor

From: Jinsha/Upper Yangtze

To: Shanghai area

Southern Corridor

From: Lancang/Nu

To: Guangdong area

Nepal

India

China

Bhutan

Bangladesh

GMS

GMS: Reasons for the (sub)region

1992 Asian Development Bank 6 Members 2005 Summit in China Naturalizing discourse

Grids Roads Rail Shipping Tourism Goods

EXPORTING EXPERTISEChina’s dam-builders go south (and elsewhere)

Global dam efforts by Chinese firms Roughly 100 projects (McDonald et al., 2008) Often coupled with related infrastructure

Roads, bridges, communications Investment approach in addition to aid

Motivated in large part by primary resource needs Reforms in electric power industry open door

for flexibility and opportunism (Magee 2006; McDonald et al., 2008)

Magee, D. Powershed Politics. The China Quarterly 185 (2006).McDonald, K., et al., Exporting dams: China’s hydropower industry goes global, Journal of Environmental Management (2008).

Exporting knowledge

Africa Algeria, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo, Sudan

Eastern Europe Albania, Georgia

Central Asia/Middle East Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Pakistan

And of course, next door…

China and Mainland SE Asia China upstream, regional power

Projects key to China’s western and regional development Concerns downstream about China hegemony

Mekong River Commission (MRC) Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam members China, Myanmar dialogue partners

MSEA governments, with or without blessing of MRC, buying into China hydro development Inter-government Agreement for Power Trade in GMS Thai co-investment in Chinese power stations Power sales from China to Vietnam GMS focus on regional power grid integration Power lines across Laos to Thailand

Mekong River Commission New Strategic Plan (2006-2010)

“more investments in irrigation, navigation, and hydropower are bound to occur”

“appropriate exploitation of hydropower potential” “potential area for cooperative development” Review & update hydropower assessment (30 GW) Hydropower “can play several important roles” Modeling & assessment of proposed projects

13 GW on mainstream Mekong 13 GW on major Mekong tributaries

Energy Profile: Cambodia

Installed capacity: ~0.012 GW Theoretical capacity: ~10 GW Much of infrastructure, including power grid,

was destroyed during latter half of 1900s Widespread dependence on diesel

generators for power (high cost, highly polluting, dependent on oil imports)

More than 20 isolated systems

Energy Profile: Vietnam

Installed capacity: ~4.5 GW Theoretical capacity: ~18 GW Plans for additional 5 GW by 2010 Transboundary power sales already

occurring from Yunnan since 2004 (110 kV) New 500-kV line completed in 2006

Energy Profile: Laos Installed capacity: ~0.7 GW Theoretical capacity: ~30 GW Second greatest hydro potential on Mekong “Battery” for powering GMS development “Transhipment” point for power transfers Sinohydro, China National Electronics, and

China Datang all bidding on Mekong cascade e.g., Xanakham (600 MW, US $880M)

Energy Profile: Thailand

Installed capacity: ~3.5 GW Theoretical capacity: ~15 GW Most of technically, economically and

politically feasible hydropower already built Significant popular resistance to new projects

and to operating rules of existing projects

Energy Profile: Myanmar (Burma) Installed capacity: ~0.75 GW Theoretical capacity: ~37 GW Developing massive reserves requires

international partnerships, made difficult by military regime in power

Ta Sang Project on Salween: 7110 MW Thailand major investor, Chinese interest growing Majority of power will go to Thailand

Sinohydro Consulting and construction company built

from assets of former MEP Projects

Kamchay 193 MW, US $280M, largest investment by China in Cambodia, largest hydro project in Cambodia; also Kirirom III (13 MW)

Paklay (1320 MW) on Mekong in Laos Also high-speed rail in China and other

infrastructure projects in Angola

Grid Corporations

Two national-level grid corporations from MEP Restructuring in 2002 was intended to

separate generation from transmission in the electric power industry China State Grid Xin Yuan International Investment

Co. for Kirirom III (13 MW) in Cambodia China Southern Power Grid signed MOU in 2007 to

conduct feasibility study for Sambor (3300 MW or 465 MW) and Stung Cheay Areng (260 MW) in Cambodia

SOUTHEAST ASIA’S RIVERS BE DAMMED?

Why the push southward?

China’s power shortages, future surplus? “Soft power” approach to regional relations

Resource diplomacy throughout GMS Curbing Japanese influence in the region

Japan Banking and Investment Corporation wields considerable influence through infrastructure funds

Asian Development Bank – Japan major partner Mekong River Commission – Japan major donor

Social and Ecological Concerns Changes to flow regime may impact downstream

fishing and agriculture Sediment trapping reduces natural fertilization of

floodplain and dam efficiency Resettlement disrupts social fabric and livelihoods Interference with local power provision Concerns about increase in dissolved gases,

potential for methane production in warm reservoirs Great uncertainty due to political obstacles to

scientific collaboration and data-sharing

Monsoons

Real concerns about dam impacts on unique Tonle Sap ecosystem

Monsoon season Water enters lake

Dry season Water leaves lake

Major protein and rice source

Monster Catfish

Charismatic megafauna? Giant catfish of symbol of

unique Mekong system Decidedly less cuddly than

pandas Real concerns about

future of anadromous fish in Mekong and tributaries ~10 species migrate north

past Chinese border No fish passage structures

Pros and cons of large dams

Benefits Irrigation Flood control Power generation Navigation Recreation

Costs Altered flow regime

Impacts on ecosystems and human communities

Change in water quality Population displacement Habitat alteration Health risks

To dam or not?

Multipurpose dams Why do they often fail to meet design expectations?

How do dams alter the hydrograph of a river? Highs? Lows?

Particularities of dams on transboundary rivers in China/Mainland SE Asia

Do the benefits outweigh the costs? Is C/B analysis even a good way to evaluate?

Sustainable Development?

Questions

Darrin Magee, Ph.D.

Environmental Studies Program

Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Geneva, NY

magee@hws.edu