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SynGpIW II

Chair: Michael W. Garrambone, General Dynamics

Co-Chair: Dr. Michael P. Bailey, MCCDC

MORS

Irregular Warfare II

Workshop

3 - 6 February 2009

Davis Conference Center

MacDill AFB, Florida

Synthesis Group Out Briefing

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SynGpIW IIAgenda

Introduction

Tutorial and Plenary Session

Observations

Assumptions, Definitions, and Terms

Key Issues and Discussion Items

Recommendations

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SynGpIW II SynGp Members

WG 1. Global Engagement

Mr. Tim Hope

LTC Clark Heidelbaugh

WG 2. Stability, Security, Transition, & Reconstruction Ops

Mr. Miles ―Doug‖ Edwards

Dr. Tom Allen

Mr. Billy Sentlinger

WG 3. Information Ops/Psyops/Social Sciences

Mr. Kirk Michealson

Dr. Stuart Starr

WG 4. Counterinsurgency (COIN)

COL Jeff Appleget

LTC Paul Ewing

WG 5. Thinking Models About Irregular Warfare

Mr. Tom Hughes

Ms. Deborah Lott

Mr. Michael W. Garrambone

Dr. Michael P. Bailey

WG Floating Members

Mr. Donald Timian

Mr. Greg Keethler

Mr. Leroy Jackson

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SynGpIW IICharter

SynGp Provides

– Workshop oversight and objectivity

– Assistance to working groups in achieving their objectives

– A perspective across working groups

– Insights back to working group and workshop chairs

Synthesize

– Common themes across groups

– Identify trouble spots, missing information

– Highlight gaps between groups and ideas

– Track critical issues of sponsor interest

Provide Overarching Recommendations

– Captures the efforts of five groups

– Identify their high payoff findings

– Summarize ideas and recommended actions

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SynGpIW IITutorial, Plenary, and

Keynote Speakers

Irregular Warfare Joint Operations Concept

Mr. Jeffery (Gus) Dearolph, Deputy Director Internal

SOCOM J10

Lessons from the Irregular Warfare Methods, Models,

Techniques

COL Jeff Appleget, TRAC

Summary of Improving Cooperation Among Nations for

Irregular Warfare Analysis Workshop

Dr. Al Sweetser, Director, OSD-PAE SAC

Systemic Operational Design

LTC Reb Yancey, SOCOM SORR-J8-Studies

Keynote Speaker

Mr. William J. A. Miller

Dir, Strategy, Plans, and Policy, SOCOM

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SynGpIW II

Initial Tutorial Thoughts

Very high level of participation ~ 71 attendees

High level of interest in the subject of IW

Suggests desire for greater basic understanding

Greater need to understand the:

– IW language

– IW concepts

– IW players

Tutorials create knowledge and uniformity

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SynGpIW II Irregular Warfare Joint

Operations Concept

Mr. Dearolph

There is continuing friction with the IW definition across

Services, agencies, interagency, and among allies

There is a lack of grand strategy and a failure to understand

population

Key IW factors are: indirect, enduring, persistent, proactive,

population-centric, respect of legitimate sovereignty linked

to over-arching strategy

Consists of :

– Key missions (e.g., FID, UW, COIN, CT, Stab Ops)

– Key activities (e.g., Strategic communications, IO, PSYOPS,

Intel, Counter- intel, Support to law enforcement)

IW Military Leadership

– JFCOM for General Purpose Forces (GPF)

– SOCOM for Special Operations Forces (SOF)

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SynGpIW II Lessons from the Irregular Warfare

Methods, Models, Techniques

COL Jeff Appleget

―IW focus is on the population‖

―COIN‖ is the Key when insurgents exert more influence on local populations than the national government‖

IWMmAWG Study established a 7-element framework

– Identified 35 gaps, 34 related to data and social sciences

Analytical Approach

– Now, Top-down, Western perspective (DIMEFIL-PMESII)

– Soon, Bottom-up employing social sciences expertise

– Track strategic level Methods, models, Tools (MmTs)

Iterative development of ―key data‖ is central

Over-all needs

– Create credible, relevant MmTs to address decision maker issues

– Make social scientists integral members of the analysis team

Continue community-wide dialogue through IW Working Group

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SynGpIW II Improving Cooperation Among

Nations for Irregular Warfare

Analysis Workshop (NPS)

Dr. Al Sweetser, Director, OSD-

PAE SAC

There is value having international participants from many

different nations

Emphasized importance of ―Whole of Government―

approach

Useful to conceptualize the problem as ―Complex Adaptive

Systems‖ (e.g., act, react, re-react,…)

Consider a hybrid approach

(e.g., wargame – model – wargame)

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SynGpIW II Systemic Operational Design (SOD)

LTC Reb Yancey, SOCOM SORR-

J8-Studies

IW is a ―wicked problem‖

Akin to relearning COIN analysis approaches (Vietnam / Iraq)

SOD employs a structured method of inquiry that enables a

commander to:

– Make sense of a complex situation

– Capture understanding

– Share the resulting visualization

SOD is a method of inquiry, is based on discourse, creates a

learning system

Requires accepting humility and valuing heresy

Means challenging the information and the boss

To deal with a dynamical complex system, one needs to

explore the interactions among the key parts (―hermeneutics’)

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SynGpIW II Keynote Speaker

Mr. William J. A. Miller, SOCOM

Dir, Strategy, Plans, & Policy,

―IW is about populations‖

In analyzing IW issues, a Lanchester view is not useful

―Behave‖ not kill our way to victory

Shape vs. exploit, synthesis not analysis, transforming is

satisfising whereas solutions are optimizing, presence

changes the problem

Be as ―un-wrong‖ as can be in conceptualizing a global

perspective on issues

Globalization challenges and threats to the US—Migration,

Crime, Extremism

SOCOM Challenges: Be up-stream (leverage), turn down the

heat (affect), engage in dialogue with senior decision makers

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SynGpIW IIWorking Group Observations

The working groups (WG’s) were highly partitioned by their

titles and topics areas (tough to find overlap)

WG’s employed from 4 to 9 presentations in their

sessions—a total of 30 different workshop presentations

WG’s ranged in size from 16 to 50 members—the

―modeling IW WG‖ had the highest numbers

WG’s recognized that they have more challenges and tasks

then they can handle in a three-day workshop

WG’s have heart and intellectual energy but are limited by

clock time and ―soak time‖

WG’s would like to ―sit in‖ on other working groups (series

vs. parallel information meetings)

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SynGpIW IIGeneral Observations

We are still struggling with the exact meaning and breadth of irregular warfare (bounding and characterization)

―Models and Tools‖ do not equal ―computer programs and computer models‖

We are not familiar with the agencies that understand or have jurisdiction for DIMEFIL and PMESII

Wargaming with the right players offers a powerful technique for discovery

Graphics in a storyboard approach has a prominent place in IW for displaying and understanding influences

Everyone is talking about data, its definition, its meaning, its form, who is collecting it, processing it, and storing it

No consensus on what information does exist, should exist or who is or should be responsible—regardless, the complexity of the situation transcends the data

VV&A is still the topic on IW models and data

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SynGpIW II Assumptions, Definitions,

and Terms*

Line of Effort

Systemic Operational Design

Adaptive Learning

Holistic Analysis

Irregular Warfare

Periodicity of Reframing

Whole of Government

Translational Issues

…

SSTRO

PMESII

DIMEFIL

GPF

MIST

MmT

NEXUS

ATLAS

…

These three* items are needed and are hard to find

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SynGpIW II Key Issues &

Discussion Items (1)

There are no ―interagency‖ people at the workshop and we

need input from their areas of expertise

We need to invite more people from the Liberal Arts and Social

Sciences to help us with our thinking about people/populations

We need more tools and methods that go beyond the

quantifiable aspects of war

Our current metrics don’t capture the qualitative aspects of

conflict that commanders need

We have voids in our data and very little cause and effect data

(e.g., temporal effects require years/decades of observations)

There is no ―owner‖ of a common lexicon

We lack sufficient analysts/SMEs with DIMEFIL (Diplomatic,

Informational, Military, Economic, Financial, Intelligence, Law

Enforcement) experience

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SynGpIW II Key Issues &

Discussion Items (2)

Identifying the differences between ―indicators‖ and ―effects‖

and understanding some effects are not quantifiable (e.g.,

measuring persuasion and influence)

MmT is not ready for Prime Time-- there is no SIMTAX for IW,

but there needs to be such a taxonomy that describes the

characteristics of these models

Should crime, extremism, and migration be considered as

―standard‖ military problems

We have not retained our history of IW, how do we bring it

back—we need to leverage that operational experience and

those earlier insights

The value and methodology of reach-back has been questioned

as well as the importance of an analyst collecting the data

There are different levels of IW that require very different tools

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SynGpIW II Gaps (1)

There is a gap between our analytical capability and our

commander’s operational needs

The repository of the IW ―body of knowledge‖ has not been

clearly identified (IW online Library)

There is a relational, supportive, and authority gap between

the military and ―the interagencies‖ on IW

We do not understand interagency lines of communications

We don’t understand how to balance government capacity for

―restoration of services,‖ security, or economic development

We do not know the modeling requirements for IW analysis

Many do not know about IW Community Hubs, Potential Data

sources or samples of IW Activities available by Joint Data

Support

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SynGpIW IIRecommendations (1)

Identify, create and sustain credible IW data

– It will require iteration to decide on the data needed

– Steps must be taken to characterize the data (e.g., metadata; pedigree) and convert it to meet the needs of the analyst

Develop a lexicon of key terms

– Current definitions are not acceptable to the interagency, coalition partners

– New terms must be developed (e.g., “operations against irregular adversaries” Huba Wass de Czege)

Continue the dialogue on MmTs to support IW analyses

– This workshop represents a significant step forward

– More dialogue is needed w/ whole of government participation

MORS convene a IW Joint/Special Session at FLVN

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SynGpIW IIRecommendations (2)

MORS provide a forum to help organize the needed information

– Create a common template to compare and contrast key IW models and tools

– Continue to support efforts to identify key gaps and priorities to guide future actions

MORS and Sponsors assist in bringing the various IW Communities of Interest (COI) together; e.g.,

– IW Working Group

– MEDEA

– Human, Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB) modeling

– MORS Social Science Community of Practice (COP)

Support Service initiatives to put Operations Research Analysts in SOF operational staffs

Invite more allies and the interagency to these meetings

Consider MORS IW COP and/or a workshop campaign

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SynGpIW II

Questions?

Thank You

For your

Interest

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SynGpIW II

Objectives at the Tutorials

Identify specialized vocabulary (terms of reference)

Extract the main learning objectives

Pick out the key points within the presentations

Look for the burning unresolved issues

Identify current weak areas of knowledge

Identify follow-on working groups topics

Tutorials create knowledge and uniformity

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SynGpIW II Working Group Leadership

WG 1. Global Engagement

Mr. Andy Caldwell (UK) , OSD Policy

Col Thomas Feldhausen, USAF, JCS/J5

WG 2. Stability, Security, Transition, & Reconstruction Ops

COL Dean Mengel, CAA

Mr. Bill Krondak, TRAC FLVN

WG 3. Information Ops/Psyops/Social Sciences

Mr. Mike Ottenberg, OSD PA&E SAC

Ms. Karen Gratten, MCCDC OAD

WG 4. Counterinsurgency (COIN)

Mr. Steve Stephens, MCCDC OAD

LTC Tedd Dugone, Joint Staff, J8 WAD

WG 5. Thinking Models About Irregular Warfare

Dr. Bob Sheldon, FS, MCCDC OAD

LTC Scott Smith, SOCOM, J8

Ms. Renee Carlucci, Deputy Chief, CAA Force Strategy

Mr. Donald Timian, Army Test and Evaluation Command

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SynGpIW II Purpose, Goals, and Focus

SynGp Purposes:

– For the WG: Attend, observe, assist, influence, & promote

– For the WS: Observe, gather, record, & create information

SynGp Goals:

– Capture information before, across, and between groups

– Synthesize ideas, fuse concepts, shake loose descriptions

– Identify universals, seams, gaps, vocabulary, direction

– Create distillation, clarity, recommendations, documentation

SynGp Focus

– Tutorials, plenary sessions, WG sessions

– Capture the talking and the thinking

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SynGpIW IIOther Observations

Discussions indicate someone went point-to-

point to get collaboration with a ―whole of

government‖ resource

SOD provides a more structured approach to a

wicked problem

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SynGpIW II Key Issues &

Discussion Items (3)

The analytical community has only started to do the reaching

out to social scientists in new and novel ways

How tactical events can cause strategic effects

Resolving the issue of the ―disconnect‖ when we say ―data‖

and ―models‖ to a social scientist

How do we open our western philosophical minds to seeing the

consequences of our activities in initial or subsequent

timeframes

Choosing the wrong metric will lead you astray and waste your

analytical resources

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SynGpIW II Gaps (2)

The Army does not include SSTRO in its definition of IW

although it is present in all aspects of warfare

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SynGpIW IIKey Findings

There is not a Battlefield Operating System

(BOS) type description or functional domain list

of data for DIME and PMESII

Cultural and societal experts are critical to

wargaming and so are professional red teams

We don’t know ourselves, that is, all the

agencies, jurisdictions, and helping services we

need to know

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SynGpIW IIKey Findings 2

There is no global list for the sources of

information for wargaming

We are paying lip service to bring social and

cultural scientists to wargames and to MORS

Wargames can be used to help identify model

capability gaps and provide insights for

operational dynamics

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SynGpIW IIKey Findings

Very limited attention has yet been paid to

coalition (international) wargaming

Serious difficulties are seen with validity of

red/green/? representations (often are blue

interpretations of red/green/? behaviors)

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SynGpIW IIConclusions

Inadequate representations of red/green/?

players, concepts, and behaviors

The wargaming process has not been formalized

for irregular warfare

Inadequate database of cultural-societal

information