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1Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Mortality projections for Social Security Programs in Canada and
its implications
Presentation to the Living to 100 International Research Symposium, Orlando, United States
8 January 2008
2Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Presentation• General Population Mortality Trends in Canada
• Mortality Experience by Income and Marital Status
• Mortality Projections
• Uncertainty of Results and International Comparison
Prince George, British Columbia
3Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Life Expectancy at Birth
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1901 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 20060
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
DifferenceMaleFemale
Source : Life Tables for Canada, Statistics Canada
4Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Life Expectancy at Age 65
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1901 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 20060
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
DifferenceMaleFemale
Source : Life Tables for Canada, Statistics Canada
5Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Presentation
Rivière-du-Milieu, Québec
• General Population Mortality Trends in Canada
• Mortality Experience by Income and Marital Status
• Mortality Projections
• Uncertainty of Results and International Comparison
6Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Mortality Ratios by income
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Mid to High Income Males
Mid to High Income Females
Low Income Males
Low Income Fermales
Source : Old Age Security Administrative Database, Actuarial Study no 5
7Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Mortality Ratios by Marital Status
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100Age
Males Single
Males Married
Females Single
Females Married
Source : Old Age Security Administrative Database, Actuarial Study no 5
8Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Life Expectancies at 65 by StatusMales Females
Status Total Single Married Delta Total Single Married DeltaOAS 16.6 14.2 17.9 +3.7 20.2 19.7 21.0 +1.3
Low Income Seniors 15.0 13.0 16.3 +3.3 19.0 18.6 19.8 +1.2
High-Income Seniors 19.5 17.6 20.6 +3.0 22.4 22.1 23.3 +1.2
Differential Between High and
Low Income Seniors
+4.5 +4.6 +4.3 - +3.4 +3.5 +3.5 -
Born in Canada 16.2 - - - 19.9 - - -Born Outside
Canada 17.8 - - - 21.1 - - -
Source : Old Age Security Administrative Database, Actuarial Study no 5
9Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Presentation
Jasper National Park, Alberta
• General Population Mortality Trends in Canada
• Mortality Experience by Income and Marital Status
• Mortality Projections
• Uncertainty of Results and International Comparison
10Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Average Annual Rates of Mortality Improvement(2007 Population-Weighted)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1944-1974 1974-1989 1989-2004 1944-1974 1974-1989 1989-2004
15-6465-89
15-6465-89
MALES FEMALES
11Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Annual Mortality Improvement Rates (1974-2004)
Males Females
Age Group 1974-1989 1989-2004 1974-1989 1989-2004
15-44 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 1.4%
45-64 2.6 2.4 1.9 1.5
65-84 1.2 2.0 1.6 1.2
85-89 0.8 0.8 1.5 0.4
90+ -0.6 0.0 0.1 -0.1
15-64 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.5
65+ 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.8
0-84 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.3
12Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Determining the ultimate improvement rateForward-looking females improvement rates
Last 30 years Continuing the trend for the next 30 years
1974-1989 1989-2004 2004-2019 2019-20340-44 3.41% 1.67% 0.81% 0.40%0-64 2.33 1.53 1.01 0.670-74 1.99 1.45 1.05 0.760-79 1.86 1.40 1.05 0.790-84 1.80 1.31 0.96 0.7065+ 1.27 0.76 0.45 0.27
80-84 1.63 1.07 0.71 0.4785-89 1.49 0.41 0.11 0.0390+ 0.14 -0.07 0.00 0.00
13Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Assumed Annual Rates of Improvement
Males FemalesAge 2005-2009 2029+ 2005-2009 2029+
(%) (%) (%) (%)15-44 2.8 0.7 1.6 0.745-64 2.1 0.7 1.4 0.765-84 2.0 0.7 1.2 0.785-8990-9495+
0.80.50.0
0.60.40.4
0.50.30.0
0.60.40.4
For the next 25 years (2005-2029), the average annual rates of mortality improvement is respectively 1.5% and 1.0% for males and females aged between 65 and 84.
14Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 45 to 64)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 2056 2066 2076
Can-MalesCan-FemalesUS-MalesUS-Females
9.2 per 1,000 2.4 per 1,0004.4 per 1,000
15Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 65 to 84)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 2056 2066 2076
Can-MalesCan-FemalesUS-MalesUS-Females
51 per 1,000 28 per 1,000 16 per 1,000
16Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 85-99)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 2056 2066 2076
Can-MalesCan-FemalesUS-MalesUS-Females
150 per 1,000 100 per 1,000 70 per 1,000
17Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Projected Mortality Rates (Ages 100+)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 2056 2066 2076
Can-MalesCan-FemalesUS-MalesUS-Females
450 per 1,000 340 per 1,000 270 per 1,000
18Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Survival Curves at Birth for Canadian Males
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110Age (years)
Probability of surviving from birth to given age
1925
1975
2075
2025
2005
e0 = 70 e0 = 81
70% of males could expect to die between ages 16 and 83 (1925), between 65 to 89 (2000) and between 74 and 95 (2075).
19Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Survival Curves at Birth for Canadian FemalesProbability of surviving from birth to given age
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110Age (years)
1925
19752075
2025
2005
e0 = 77 e0 = 85
70% of females could expect to die between ages 24 and 84 (1925), between 71 and 94 (2005) and between 78 and 98 (2075).
20Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Presentation
Cisco, British Columbia
• General Population Mortality Trends in Canada
• Mortality Experience by Income and Marital Status
• Mortality Projections
• Uncertainty of Results and International Comparison
21Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Sensitivity test using stochastic processCanadian Life Expectancies, with improvements after the year shown
At birth Actuarial Report Lower 95% CI Higher 95% CI
2007 84.5 79.1 88.4
2007 87.7 80.6 92.0
2007 19.3 17.6 20.7
2007 22.0 19.5 24.0
Males 2050 87.4 80.8 91.3
2075 88.8 81.6 92.8
Females 2050 90.2 81.9 94.6
2075 91.5 81.9 95.9
At 65
Males 2050 21.9 17.8 25.1
2075 23.1 17.9 26.6
Females 2050 24.2 18.6 27.9
2075 25.4 18.4 29.4
22Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Evolution of Asset/Expenditure Ratio (9.9% Contribution Rate)
The minimum contribution rate falls between 9.2% and 10.2%
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077
Lower Life Expectancy 23rd CPP Report Higher Life Expectancy
23Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Life expectancy at age 65 for men, 2000-2030(with no future improvements after year shown)
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Canada
Japan
United Kingdom
Quebec
Finland
France
Sweden
Switzerland
Italy
United States
1960 1980 2000 2010 2020 2030
24Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Life expectancy at age 65 for women, 2000-2030 (with no future improvements after year shown)
12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Canada
Japan
United Kingdom
Quebec
Finland
France
Sweden
Switzerland
Italy
United States
1960 1980 2000 2010 2020 2030
25Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Thank you
Mortality projections for Social Security Programs in Canada and
its implications
Jean-Claude Ménard, Chief ActuaryOffice of the Chief Actuary
Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada
