Motivation Dimensions:(Horizontal Axis)Climate Change RoleCompetition (China)Homeland Defense Political WillUrge to Explore & TourismScienceCommerce & Industry in Space

Means Dimensions:(Vertical Axis)Propulsion BreakthroughEducationEconomic Development

(Financial Means)R&D FundingLiving in SpaceInfrastructure

Economic Development (Financial Means)

Urge to Explore & Tourism

ClimateChange Role

Competition(China)

R&DFunding

Political Will

Science

Living in SpacePropulsion

Breakthrough (s)

PropulsionBreakthrough(s)

Team 1 Team 2 Team 3

Team 6Team 4 Team 5

+ +

- - - +

+ -

+ +

- - - +

+ -

+ +

- - - +

+ - + +

- - - +

+ -

+ +

- - - +

+ - + +

- - - +

+ -

Economic Development (Financial Means)

Role inHomelandDefense

Step 1: Based on this matrix, develop a 2 -3 sentence description of the scenario that would logically emerge for each of the 4 quadrants.

Step 2: Name each scenario with the catchiest name you can come up with.

Step 3: Identify which of the 4 scenarios you feel is most likely. (Circle it on your report.)

Step 4: If this "most likely" scenario is positive (supports development of the space movement), then develop a list of 3 major strategies to enhance and promote the scenario. If this "most likely" scenario is negative (impedes development of the space movement), then develop a list of 3 major strategies to counteract the scenario.

Based on the work done previously, we have prepared a scenario matrix for your team to work with.

The horizontal axis represents "motive," the reason(s) for development of space, and the vertical axis represents "means," a method which contributes to the realization of the motive. Please do the following 4 steps during the next 60 minutes:

Scenario Workshop • November 4, 2002

Round 5: Scenarios & Strategies Assignment

Hor

izon

tal A

xis:

Mot

ive

Rol

e in

Clim

ate

Cha

nge

Miti

gatio

n

Vertical Axis: MeansPropulsion Breakthrough(s)

Scenario 1: “Global View”

+ - Description: With a propulation breakthrough but no significant improvement in climate forecastingand/or control, the number of flights and hence, the number of weather satellites can be deployed to givetotal, redundant coverage.

Team #: 1

Keith CoxIsaiah WhiteKen YoungJerry Bell

Scenario 2

+ +“Weather Master”

Scenario 1

- + “Global View”

Scenario 3

+ -“Crystal Ball”

Scenario 4

- -“Status Quo”

Scenario 2: “Weather Master”

+ + Description: With propulsive breakthrough and significant weather control methodology improvements, the climate could actually be mitigated for the good of humankind (like dispersing young hurricanes).

Scenario 3: “Climate Crystal Ball”

- + Description: With no propulsive breakthrough but with significant climate control and observation /prediction improvements, improved models and thus mitigation predications can be achieved.

Scenario 4: “Status Quo” Mark Twain Quadrant (most likely)

- - Description: Continue with current space capabilities for observation, climate predication, limited climate prediction

Strategy 1: Description: Better weather forecasting models and observation capabilities need to be developed.

Strategy 2: Description: Study and experiment on significant climate control methodologies should be funded.

Strategy 3: Description: Continue to strive for non-chemical propulsion breakthroughs.

likeliest quadrant

”Role in Climate Change Mitigation" refers to the involvement of space science and presence in the mitigation of the negative effects of global climate change. To the right of the matrix indicates a significant role for space in the mitigation effort; to the left indicates that space presence provides insignificant benefit.

“Propulsion Breakthrough(s)" refers to future breakthroughs in propulsion technology that significantly reduce the cost of space flight. To the top of the matrix indicates that Propulsion Breakthroughs are made; to the bottom indicates that Propulsion Breakthroughs are not made.

Team #: 2

Shaman MullickMike ShawMike SneadHenry Brandhorst

Scenario 2

+ +“Reach for the Stars”

Scenario 1

- + “Pie in the Sky”

Scenario 3

+ -“Best Idea Wins”

Scenario 4

- -“Duck + Cover”

Scenario 1: Name: Pie in the Sky

+ - Description: Opportunity for stimulating new ideas in science and science education. Have to sell.

Scenario 2: Name: Reach for the Stars

+ + Description: Robust science investigation throughout the solar system and beyond

Scenario 3: Name: Best Idea Wins

- + Description: Highly prioritized, heavily reviewed science activities addressing central questions.

Scenario 4: Name: Duck + Cover

- - Description: Live on past glory & successes, wait for new opportunities.

Strategy 1: Description: Increase efforts to sustain science interst throughout K-12, sell as means to solving “human capital” problems in government and industry (science & engineering folks)

Strategy 2: Description: Establish new emphasis on obtaining royalties + licensing fees (etc.) from government patents and use part to fund new science.

Strategy 3: Description: Sustaining interest in working in space program by creating exciting programs in industry/government - seek to capture interest of media, popular stars, etc.

Hor

izon

tal A

xis:

Mot

ive

Scie

nce

Vertical Axis: MeansEconomic Development / Financial Means

”Science" refers to the desire and intent of society to conduct space-based scientific endeavors. To the right of the matrix indicates a high degree of motive to do space science; to the left indicates that society has low motivation to do space science.

“Economic Development/Financial Means" refers to the status of global economic development. To the top of the matrix indicates that Economic Development is strong and investment funds are available; to the bottom indicates that the economy is weak and few funds are available.

likeliest quadrant.

Team #: 3

John DorseyRay EriksonMarkLovelyBob

Scenario 2

+ +“Return of the Space Race”

Scenario 1

- + “Wall Street in Space”

Scenario 3

+ -“Road to Hell”

Scenario 4

- -“Just Say No (to Space)”

Scenario 1: Name: Wall Street in Space

+ - Description: • Lack of military/nationalistic threat: Robust commercial development• US Regains / enhances space leadership role• Technology breakthroughs• Good investment returns

Scenario 2: Name: Return of the Space Race

+ + Description: • Space-inspired investment in China diminishes US leadership• China provides another level of competition economically• Strong economy in China spurs perception of China as a military threat to US

Scenario 3: Name: Road to Hell

- + Description: • US Space Industry continues decline• US Concedes space to China (space not worth it)• US national priorities forced in other direction

Scenario 4: Name: Just Say No (to space)

- - Description: • World priorities elsewhere• Economic decay• Environmental disruption• Dangers of space flight perceived as not worth the risk

Strategy 1: Description: Team with Chinese: “If you can’t beat’em, join’em.”

Strategy 2: Description: Focus existing R&D monies on near-term and/or self-supporting technologies

Strategy 3: Description: Low cost (relative to actual space work) campaigns to re-educate public on benefits ofspace development (change perceptions; build support).

Hor

izon

tal A

xis:

Mot

ive

Com

petit

ion

(Chi

na)

Vertical Axis: MeansR&D Funding

"Competition (China)" refers to the development of the Chinese space program and its stated intent to land a man on the moon. To the right of the matrix indicates a high degree of motive provided by the Chinese activity to other nations; to the left indicates that the Chinese activities provide low motive for other nations to develop space activities.

"R&D Funding" means the availability of funds in US government and industry for space-related R&D. To the top of the matrix indicates that availability of R&D funds is high; to the bottom indicates that few funds are available.

likeliest quadrant.

Team #: 4

Ron KohlZafar TaqusGale AllenDave ChristensenMike Canga Scenario 2

+ +“When Can I GoVegas in Space”

Scenario 1

- + “Why Bother”

Scenario 3

+ -“All Dressed Up + No Way to Go”

Scenario 4

- -“Thanks, But ILike My Cave”

Scenario 1: Name: “Why Bother” (Thanks - But No Thanks!)

+ - Description: There is little or no interest in space.

Scenario 2: Name: “When Can I Go”

+ + Description: Need an affordable means to get there and a place to stay / visit.

Scenario 3: Name: “All Dressed Up + No Way or No Where To Go”

- + Description

Scenario 4: Name: “Thanks, But I Like My Cave” (No Interest, No Money)

- - Description

Strategy 1: Description: Need government subsidy for infrastructure (ie, TVA & railroads + aircraft mail)

Strategy 2: Description: Develop master business plans (Hotels: “Vegas in Space”

Strategy 3: Description” Space Tourist’s Lottery

Vertical Axis: MeansEconomic Development / Financial Means

Hor

izon

tal A

xis:

Mot

ive

Urg

e to

Exp

lore

& T

ouris

m

likeliest quadrant.

”Urge to Explore & Tourism” refers to the degree of interest on the part of society in space exploration and tourism for its own sake. To the right of the matrix indicates a high of interest; to the left indicates a low degree of interest.

“Economic Development/Financial Means" refers to the status of global economic development. To the top of the matrix indicates that Economic Development is strong and investment funds are available; to the bottom indicates that the economy is weak and few funds are available.

Team #: 5

Kay CoxChuck LarsenTom DiegelmanAl HoltGraham O’Neil

Scenario 2

+ +“Fort Hope”

Scenario 1

- + “Space Hostel”

Scenario 3

+ -“ISS Plus”

Scenario 4

- -“Hostile Space”

Scenario 1: Name: Space Hostel

+ - Description: Predominant tourism & commercialism; little joint support for HD/MIC human space;Logistics & test support for HD

Scenario 2: Name: Fort Hope

+ + Description: Substantial military base of operations; large human presence. Substantial humanactivities support, maintain, extend HD assets

Scenario 3: Name: ISS- Plus

- + Description: No change in human presence. Support for R&D & maintenance for remote platforms. Small scale HD R&D, Servicing, space defense testing. No commercial.

Scenario 4: Name: Hostile Space

- - Description: Closer ties with DoD; Investment in R&D. No increased human activity, effective denial of space for military activities - robotics & autonomous operations.

Strategy 1: Description: Closer DoD ties

Strategy 2: Description: R&D investment

Strategy 3: Description

Vertical Axis: MeansEconomic Development / Financial Means

Hor

izon

tal A

xis:

Mot

ive

Urg

e to

Exp

lore

& T

ouris

m

"Role in Homeland Defense” refers to the use of space as a venue for homeland defense activities. To the right of the matrix indicates a high applicability of space in homeland defense activities; to the left indicates little role for space in homeland defense.

”Living in Space" refers to civilians living in space on a permanent or semi-permanent basis. To the top of the matrix indicates that civilians are living in space; to the bottom indicates that people are not. ** Note: Order of magnitude: the 3-person space station crew does not count as “living in space.” Consider 50 - 100 people a minimum. Please also consider what constitutes “homeland” in the event that there are off-earth settlements.

likeliest quadrant.

Team #: 6

Steve GonzalezSteve GondaArt SullivanKen CoxLouis Fussell Scenario 2

+ +“Off and Running to the Planets”

Scenario 1

- + “Gold Rush”

Scenario 3

+ -“Keep on Truckin’”

Scenario 4

- -“Circle the Wagons”

Scenario 1: Name: Gold Rush

+ - Description: Private sector takes lead in space. Markets develop for space-based products.New education/business/research partnerships develop.

Scenario 2: Name: Off and Running to the Planets

+ + Description: Commercial access to space. Humans able to go further; larger, more permanent colonies.Agency with technology is public hero. Excitement about space globally. Escape from Milky Way.

Scenario 3: Name: Keep on Truckin’

- + Description: Government funding for a propulsion system - no result. Decreasing public support.Large advocacy propgram for effort. Funding redirected towards reducing risk in slow space flight / basicresearch / space goals closer to earth, etc.

Scenario 4: Name: Circle the Wagons

- - Description: Sense of lost potential in NASA community. Government investment on other fronts. Mitigation of risks of longer space flight.

Strategy 1: Description: Positive reinforcement to pro-space politicians

Strategy 2: Description: Communicate technology successes. Get media on our side.

Strategy 3: Description: Employ effective leadership & management.

Vertical Axis: MeansPropulsion Breakthrough(s)

Hor

izon

tal A

xis:

Mot

ive

Polit

ical

Will

Likeliest quadrant.

”Political Will” refers to the existence of support among political leaders for the space movement. To the right of the matrix indicates a high of support provided by political leaders; to the left indicates low support for the space movement.

“Propulsion Breakthrough(s)" refers to future breakthroughs in propulsion technology that significantly reduce the cost of space flight. To the top of the matrix indicates that Propulsion Breakthroughs are made; to the bottom indicates that Propulsion Breakthroughs are not made.