Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Moving forward
Michael Diekmann
Chief Executive Officer
BoA
Merrill Lynch Banking and Insurance CEO Conference
London, September 2013
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
1 Allianz at a glance
2 Key topics
2.1 Interest rates
2.2 Capital
2.3 Growth
3 Outlook
Agenda
2
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
33
1
)
2012, operating profit adjusted for reclassification of restructuring expenses and IAS192
)
06/20133
)
Off-balance sheet reserves are accepted as eligible capital only upon request; Allianz SE has not submitted an application so far. Excluding off-balance sheet reserves, the solvency ratio would be 168 %
4
)
08/20135
)
Relation of business segments excluding Corporate & Other and consolidation
P/C
Allianz at a glance
EUR 106bn total revenues1
EUR 1,863bn total
AuM2
EUR 9.3bn operating profit1
206% economic solvency ratio2
177% regulatory solvency ratio2,3
EUR 47.9bn S/H equity2
EUR 49.4bn market cap4
About
78mn (direct) and 250mn (indirect) customers1
Segments1,5
Operating profit in %Regions1,5
Operating profit in %
AM
L/H Western
Europe
GermanyEmerging markets
Specialty insurance
Broker markets US, UK, AUS
28%
28%
44%
6%9%
31%30%
24%
1. Allianz at a glance
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
44
Leading P/C insurer globally
Top 5 Life insurer globally
Top 5 asset manager globally
Largest global assistance provider
Worldwide leader in credit insurance
One of the leading industrial insurers globally
Building the leading global automotive provider
1
)
All rankings based on 2012 data
Strong market positions and brands1
1. Allianz at a glance
Unlimited access to
business opportunities
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
5
Simplify
Consolidate
De-risk
Capital strength
Delivery
Minority buy-outs, complexity reduction
Global Lines
Target Operating Model (TOM) & Customer Focus & One Brand
Reinsurance
Sale of Dresdner Allianz = Insurance + Investments
Multichannel distribution
Platform reduction
Multi-access
Digitalization
Allianz Investment Management (AIM)
For the last 10 years we have been strengthening …
1. Allianz at a glance
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
… our ability to deliver even in a challenging environment
Healthy
growth
potential
Resilient
business
model
Strong
capital
base
1. Allianz at a glance
6
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
GroupShareholders’
net income
(EUR mn)
GroupOperating profit
(EUR mn)
GroupTotal revenues(EUR bn)
First half 2013 –
a good start into the year
58.8
2012 2013
55.2
6M6M
+6.5%
5,1644,583
+12.7%
3,2952,629
+25.3%
P/C(EUR mn)
L/H
(EUR mn)
AM
(EUR mn)
2012 20136M6M
1,5241,643
-7.2%
1,7041,189
+43.4%
1.8% 1.8%NBM
42 503rd party net flows
(EUR bn)
2,4982,233
+11.9%
CR1.1%
2.4%
3.0%
3.6%
NatCat impact
Run-off ratio96.7% 95.1%
7
1. Allianz at a glance
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
1 Allianz at a glance
2 Key topics
2.1 Interest rates
2.2 Capital
2.3 Growth
3 Outlook
Agenda
8
© A
llian
z S
E 2
01363 60 62 59
7349 47 47 44 44
23 23 25 2815
34 31 27 28 26
14 17 13 13 12 17 22 26 28 30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121)
Historically reported figures excluding Banking segment 2
)
Based on historically reported figures excluding Corporate & Other, Banking and Consolidation3
)
2011 and 2012 including adjustments for restructuring charges and IAS 19 restatement
P/CL/HAM
Stable operating profit in a volatile environment …
… thanks to
diversification
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e
6.3
Operating profit (EUR bn)1
Operating profit by
business segment (%)2
9.010.1
8.2 7.86.9
7.5 7.2
Diversification reduces interest rate sensitivity
9.3
1H 2013
9.2
+/-
0.5
3 3
3 3
9
2.1 Interest rates
5.2
6m 2013
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Lower
yields mitigated by growing asset base, …
Interest and similar income plus AM fee and commission income1
(EUR bn)
P/CL/HAM
1
)
AM: excluding performance fees; L/H: before policyholder participation
Growth in operating asset base
10.9%
CAGR
6.9%
0.6%
15.6 16.317.5
19.3 20.0 20.4 20.4
23.024.7
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
26.4
2012
10
2.1 Interest rates
CAGR 6.0%
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
~90bp margin
+ strong buffer EUR 19bn of RfB
equal 5.7% of aggregate policy reserves
Business in force New business
2.6%
1
)
IFRS current interest and similar income (net of interest expenses) relative to average asset base (IFRS) which excludes unit-linked, FVO and trading2
)
IFRS current interest and similar income (net of interest expenses) relative to average aggregate policy reserves3
)
IFRS current interest and similar income (net of interest expenses) + net harvesting and other (operating) relative to average aggregate policy reserves4
)
Weighted by aggregate policy reserves
5.3%3
Ø
guarantee
new
business4
2013e
Reinvestment
yield
F/I 6m 2013
Total yield
2012
Ø min. guarantee4
2012
270bp
~1.6%
150bp~3.1%5.0%2
Improvement oftechnical margin
Fostering of protectionbusiness
Shifting of product mixtowards unit-linkedbusiness
Optimization of asset-liability management
Shifting from creditingrate to terminal bonus
Current
yield
4.4%1
… strong buffers and resilient margins in L/H
2.1 Interest rates
11
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Example Allianz Leben
Germany
Duration Fixed income and minimum guarantee cash flows
Assets Liabilities
2012
8.7
-1.3
10.0
1 10 20 30 40 50
Fixed-income cash flows (maturity + coupon)Minimum guarantee cash flows
Carry forward of asset surplus
years
12
2.1 Interest rates
Limited interest rate
sensitivity of economic
balance sheet
Cash flows from existing fixed income investments allow full coverage of liability cash flows for comfortable period of time
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Higher
yields with positive net impact on operating profitOperating profit after 100bps interest rate increase (EUR mn)
yrs.
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
6y run-rate
EUR 1.4bn6y cumulative benefit: EUR 4.5bn
Full run-rate
EUR 1.6bn
Disclaimer:Simplified assumptions
AM6%
Corporate8%
L/H28%
P/C58%
P/C: Immediate substantialpositive impact due to relativelyshort duration
L/H: Positive effect of higherinterest income mitigated bypossible ZZR unwind
AM: Higher yields offsetlower asset levels
Corporate: Negative impact ofhigher coupons and interest costs offset by higher interest income and lower pension costs
13
2.1 Interest rates
1,600
-
No impact on operational business-
Unchanged risk appetite reg. reinvestments-
L/H excl. impact on derivatives / DAC and trading liabilities (one-off)-
Positive effects on MCEV / NBM excluded
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
14
PIMCO AuM
grew even in times of increasing interest rates
3rd party AuM
(USD bn)
US treasury benchmark bond 10 years6
394 467 552 620 701 700976
1,6091,6211,348
1,221
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20125 1H135
1
)
30.06.06 compared with 31.12.022
)
31.12.09 compared with 31.12.083
)
AuM: USD 569bn as of 30.06.06 compared with 322bn as of 31.12.02
4
)
AuM: USD 976bn as of 31.12.09 compared with 700bn as of 31.12.085)
New organizational setup6)
Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg
3.84%
+39%4
+77%3
End
2002
Mid
2006
End
2009End
2008
Mid
2013
3.82%
5.14%+1.32%-p1
2.25%
2.49%
+1.59%-p2
2.1 Interest rates
Why resilience?Fixed income favored by regulation, income seeking investors (age 50+) or funds and ALM managementOngoing diversification into other asset classes and non-traditional products (now > 60%) …… with higher revenue marginsGrowth opportunities in Europe / AsiaHigher yields increase accumulated interest incomeHigher yields ultimately lead to more attractive F/I product
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
1 Allianz at a glance
2 Key topics
2.1 Interest rates
2.2 Capital
2.3 Growth
3 Outlook
Agenda
15
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Uncertain regulatory requirements …
Solvency IIImplementation dateTreatment of long-term guaranteesEquivalence Volatility adjustment
AccountingIFRS 4 Phase II Valuation of liabilities at current fulfillment value
SystemicnessCapital, disclosure and other potential regulatory requirements Interaction with Solvency II
Product regulationMIFID IIIMD IIPRIPs
16
2.2 Capital
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
1H 2013
… require strong and resilient capital base
Shareholders’ equity (EUR bn)
Interest rates +100 bps
Equity markets -30%
Economic solvency (%)
1H 2013
Interest rates -100 bps
Equity markets -30%
AA (stable outlook)
-2.1
-4.9
47.9
206
-25
-11
2.2 Capital
17
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
AA
AA
AA
AA-
AA-
AA-
A+
A+
A+
A
A
A
A-
A-
A-
Strong capitalization and risk management pay off
S&P financial strength rating / outlook1
2.2 Capital… 1H
2013
2013201220112010200920082007
…
Higher S&P capital surplus
Lower cost of capital
Funding costs reduced versus peers
Recognition of internal capital model by S&P
“Very strong”
Highest possible rating, best in class2
18
S&P enterprise risk management (ERM)
1
)
Insurer Financial Strength Ratings of holding companies or operating entities; positive/stable/negative outlooks indicated by green/yellow/red
arrows; “credit watch” categorized in the same way as “outlook”
2
)
Axa, Zurich: “strong”, Generali
“adequate”
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Derisking
Life –
product innovation
New traditional Hybrid products Unit-linked products
19
“Progetto
Reddito”
(2013)
Unit linked decumulation productMandatory withdrawals of min. 1% each quarterTax advantage: capital gains tax will not arise until the paid-in capital is completely used upShare of unit-linked products in Italy 71%1 (GPW)
“Balance Invest”
(2012)
Customer can choose between guarantee level of 85-105%Upside linked to market performance of underlying fundsRisk riders included asstandard components34%1 share in Individual Life new business (6% share in total Life)
„Perspektive“
(July
2013)
Total premium refundguarantee at maturityYearly increase of maturity benefitAnnuitization of maturitybenefit only at rates attime of annuitizationSignificantly reducedinterest rate risk
NBM 4.7%1 NBM 2.2%1
Switzerland Italy Germany
1
)
6m 2013
2.2 Capital
NBM ~2%
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Transparent dividend policy
Continuity1
3.5
40% 40% 40%
4.14.5 4.5
81%1
4.5
1
)
High ratio to compensate for non-operating impairments2
)
Net income attributable to shareholders
Dividend
per share in EURPayout ratio
Payout ratio2
2009 2010 2011
20
20
40
20
Net income2
Internal growth
External growth
Shift of investments to real assets
Dividend
Dividend growth to be achieved through increase of net income
20
2.2 Capital
40%
20122008
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Disciplined acquisition strategy
Focus on smart transactions in regions with strong presence and on distribution capacity in growth regions
2011 2012 2013
Strengthening of strategic partnership with Banco
Popular by bundling of existing joint ventures
Signing of 10-year life insurance distribution agreement with HSBC in continental Europe
Acquisition of Gan
Eurocourtage
brokerage business
Signing of 10-year excl. life insurance distribution agreement with HSBC in Asia
Acquisition of Yap ו Kredi Sigorta, Turkey plus 15-year excl. bank distribution agreement
Acquisition of insurance activities from Mensura
21
2.2 Capital
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
1 Allianz at a glance
2 Key topics
2.1 Interest rates
2.2 Capital
2.3 Growth
3 Outlook
Agenda
22
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Profitable growth via enhanced distribution
“Agency Future Program” (AFP) to increase sales productivityJoint effort between distribution, market management andoperations to support agents along the value chainImplementation ongoing
+18%
+14%
+10%
+16%
New model agency productivity versus old model (Jan –
July 2013)(Change of new business volume in %1)
AustriaSwitzerlandCzech Republic Germany
23
2.3 Growth
1
)
Productivity change based on changes of new retail business. New
business P/C = GPW of new business; new business Life = weighted premium sum of new business; new business Health = monthly premiums of new business. Values compare productivity of new model agencies vs
old model. Values for Germany based on new agencies Pro3 package 2 versus new agencies non-Pro3.
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Allianz One ChinaHealth JV CPIC ChinaExclusive distribution agreement with HSBC in 8 countries
As % of total Allianz revenues resp. customers in 2012
RevenuesCustomers
Latin America
6.8%
26.8%
Asia3.2%Africa, Middle East
0.3% 0.4%
Central EasternEurope & Turkey
4.0%
11.1%Distribution agreement with HSBC TurkeyAcquisition Yap ו KrediSigorta
Investments inIberian platformAGCS in BrazilPIMCO in BrazilEuler / Mapfre
Plus Global Lines with special focus on growth markets
Growth markets –
we keep investing1
2.3 Growth
24
2.4%
1
)
Customer figures including non-consolidated entities. Revenues Asia including figures of non-consolidated operating entities in India. Data exclude specialty
insurers AGCS, Euler Hermes, Allianz Global Assistance and ART
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
25
Turkey –
an epitome of selective external growth
Impressive organic growth
2.3 Growth
6M 2012 6M 2013Non-Life (including Health)Life (Life and Pension)
5076
1,059
296
436
48%
GPW
(EUR mn) Net income non-life market 2012, local1,2 (EUR mn)
AllianzYapı
Kredi
Loss-maker Σ
-428 Profit-maker Σ
145
1
)
Source: annual reports and Insurance Association of Turkey;
including
dividends from subsidiaries (local GAAP figures)2
)
Local GAAP figures
Note: average F/X rate 2012 EUR/TL 2.325
Other (11)
(2)
(5)
(7)
(9)
(11)
(16)
(20)
(24)
(28)
(33)
(34)(228)
0.4
1
2
2
3
6
13
17
19
21
26
33
Many players with unsustainable losses Yap ו Kredi almostdoubles our presence
2012
620
726
1,346
Yap ו KrediAZ Turkey
GPW
(EUR mn)
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Technology: Telematics, Fastquote, Direct, Fusion
In-force portfolio Telematics
Italy
(on-board units retail, in thousands, cumulative)
Direct volume has almost doubled (EUR mn)
In-force Fastquote
policies Italy
(in thousands, cumulative)
Premium processed via Fusion platform
(USD mn)
2.3 Growth
26
6M
2009
6M
2010
6M
2011
6M
2012
6M
2013
GPW P/C Direct
06/12 12/12 06/13
11.5
39.3
87.2
53.993.2
172.4 189.3 190.4
6M
2009
6M
2010
6M
2011
6M
2012
6M
2013
CAGR 37%
06/12 12/12 06/13
71.2102.6
147.0107% > 7x
CAGR 18%662
589480
408346
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
GPW trend
Global Automotive (in EUR bn)
Global Automotive bundles the B2B2C automotive businesswithin Allianz on a global scaleAllianz is uniquely positionedamong its peers with partnershipsin Europe, Asia and South AmericaAgreements with more than 45 brands in more than 30 countries
Double-digit top-line growthis expected to continue resulting in EUR 3.5bn GPW by 2016e
27
Global Automotive is a real growth driver
1.3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2016e
1.92.1
3.5
10%CAGR 23%
2.4
CAGR 10%
2.3 Growth
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
1 Allianz at a glance
2 Key topics
2.1 Interest rates
2.2 Capital
2.3 Growth
3 Outlook
Agenda
28
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Revenue growth 9.0%NBM 1.8%
Net inflows of EUR 50bnCIR 54.3%
Please mind the seasonality of the business and our disclaimer4!
GPW growth 1.7%CR 95.1%
L/H
AM
CO
P/C 2.54.3 –
5.1
1.52.5 –
3.1
1.7
-0.6
Upper end of target range in reach
Operating profit (EUR bn)
-1.1 –
-1.3
1
)
For FY 20132
)
As % of target range mid-point
6M 2013 Outlook1
published 02/13 6M 2013
2.7 –
3.1
9.2 (+/-
0.5)
57%2
54%2
59%2
50%2,3
53%2
Total 5.2
3
)
Corporate and consolidation4
)
Disclaimer: impact from NatCat, financial markets and global economic development not predictable!
In line with target
29
3. Outlook
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
30
To sum it up
Resilient and well diversified business model
Natural hedge against interest rate changes
Strong market positions and brands
Strong capital position
Attractive dividend yield
Healthy growth potential
1
2
3
4
5
6
3. Outlook
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Disclaimer
These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.
Forward-looking statements
The statements contained herein may include prospects, statements of
future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based
on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and
unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events
may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forward-
looking statements.
Such deviations may arise due to, without limitation, (i) changes of the
general economic conditions and competitive situation, particularly in the
Allianz Group's core business and core markets, (ii) performance
of financial
markets (particularly market volatility, liquidity and credit events) (iii) frequen-
cy and severity of insured loss events, including from natural catastrophes,
and the development of loss expenses, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and
trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) particularly in the banking
business, the
extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange
rates including the Euro/U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix) changes
in laws and
regulations, including tax regulations, (x) the impact of acquisitions, including
related integration issues, and reorganization measures, and (xi) general
competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national
and/or global
basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more
pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences.
No duty to updateThe company assumes no obligation to update any information or forward-
looking statement contained herein, save for any information required
to be disclosed by law.
31
© A
llian
z S
E 2
013
Investor Relations contacts
Oliver Schmidt +49 89 3800-3963
Head of
Investor Relations
E-mail: [email protected]
Christian
Lamprecht
+49 89 3800-3892
E-mail: [email protected]
InvestorRelations
+49 89 3800-3899
E-mail:
Reinhard
Lahusen
+49 89 3800-17224
E-mail:
Stephanie Aldag +49 89 3800-17975
E-mail:
IR Events
Peter Hardy
E-mail:
+49 89 3800-18180
Internet
English:
www.allianz.com/investor-relations German:
www.allianz.com/ir
32
