MPR 2008:1 080213

MPR 2008:1080213

Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

790%75%50%Repo rate

Source: The Riksbank

Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

690%75%50%GDP

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5


-1

0

1

2

3

4

590%75%50%CPI


Figure 4. CPIX with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5


-1

0

1

2

3

4

590%75%50%CPIX


Figure 5. Fluctuations in government bond rates

Per cent

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

Euro area (Germany)

Sweden

USA

Source: Reuters EcoWinNote: Calculated as 30-day rolling standard deviation for 2-year rates.

Figure 6. GDP in the USA and the Euro area

Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8USA

Euro area

P

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

Figure 7. Consensus and the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP growth in the United States in 2008 at

different points in timeAnnual percentage change

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

The Riksbank

Consensus

Sources: Consensus Economics Inc. and The Riksbank

2007 2008

Figure 8. GDP in Sweden and the worldAnnual percentage change

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6SwedenThe world

Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 9. Total Swedish exports and export market index for goods

Annual percentage change

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

81 86 91 96 01 06 11

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20Swedish exportExport market index for goods


Figure 10. Real exchange rate and current account

TCW index, 18 November 1992 = 100 and percentage of GDP

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9Real exchange rate SEK/TCW (left scale)

Current account (right scale)

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 11. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138

140

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138

140OutcomeMPR 2007:3MPR 2008:1

Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 12. GDPQuarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms,

seasonally adjusted data

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7MPR 2008:1MPR 2007:3Forecast, MPU December 2007


Figure 13. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio

Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Consumption (left scale)Disposable income (left scale)Saving ratio (right scale)


Figure 14. Labour force and number employed

Thousands, seasonally adjusted data

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000Labour force 16-64 year oldsLabour foce (EU-definition)Number employedNumber employed (EU-definition)


Figure 15. Percentage of open unemployed 16-64 years-old and percentage of unemployed 15-74

years according to the new EU ordinancePercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Open unemployment, 16-64 year-olds

Unemployment, 15-74 year-olds (EU definition)


Figure 16. Actual an trend labour productivity for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5MPR 2007:3

MPR 2008:1

HP-trend


Figure 17. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole

Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Unit labour costsHourly labour costProductivity


Figure 18. CPI and CPIXAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-1

0

1

2

3

4CPI

CPIX


Figure 19. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Oil price, outcome

Forwards, average up to 15 October 2007

Forwards, average up to 7 December 2007

Forwards, average up to 30 January 2008

Figure 20. CPIX excluding energyAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0

1

2

3

4MPR 2008:1

MPR 2007:3


Figure 21. Repo rate forecasts on different occasions

Per cent, quarterly averages

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

1

2

3

4

5MPR 2007:3

MPU December 2007

MPR 2008:1


Figure 22. CPIX forecasts on different occasions


-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-1

0

1

2

3

4MPR 2008:1

MPU December 2007

MPR 2007:3


Figure 23. Employment forecasts on different occasions


4100

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

4100

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700Employed (EU-definition)

MPR 2008:1

MPU December 2007

MPR 2007:3

Employed 16-64 year-olds


Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 CPI 1.4 2.2 (2.2) 3.4 (3.6) 2.5 (2.4) 2.3 (2.2) CPIX 1.2 1.2 (1.2) 2.5 (2.7) 2.2 (2.1) 2.1 (2.0) KPIX excl. energy 0.6 1.5 (1.4) 2.2 (2.3) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.2)

Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

Table 2. Inflation, 12-month rate Annual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11

CPI 1.9 3.4 (3.6) 2.6 (2.6) 2.4 (2.3) 2.2

CPIX 1.2 2.3 (2.6) 2.2 (2.2) 2.1 (2.0) 2.0

CPIX excl. energy 1.2 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.2) 2.3 (2.3) 2.2

Table 3. Key figures Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated


*New weights from the World bank have been used for the aggregate world growth for the previous forecast, too. These values thus do not correspond to those published in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2007.

Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

GDP, the world* 4.9 4.8 (5.0) 4.1 (4.5) 4.2 (4.4) 4.3 (4.4) Crude oil price, Brent USD/barrel, annual average 65 73 (73) 89 (89) 87 (86) 86 (85) Exchagnge rate, TCW index annual average 127.4 125.2 (125.2) 123.5 (122.5) 123.0 (121.5) 122.9 (121.1) Repo rate, per cent annual average 2.2 3.5 (3.5) 4.3 (4.2) 4.3 (4.3) 4.3 (4.3) General government net lending, percentage of GDP 2.2 3.1 (2.7) 2.3 (2.6) 1.7 (2.2) 1.6 (1.8) GDP, calender adjusted 4.1 2.5 (2.6) 2.4 (2.4) 2.0 (2.1) 2.8 (2.8) Numbers employed (EU-defintion) 1.9 2.5 (2.5) 1.1 (1.4) 0.2 (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) Unemployment (EU-definition)* 7.0 6.1 (6.1) 5.9 (5.9) 5.9 (5.8) 5.8 (5.8) Hourly wage in economy as a whole 3.1 3.6 (3.8) 4.2 (4.4) 4.0 (4.1) 3.8 (3.8)

Table 4. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average

Source: The RiksbankNote. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

Q 1 2008 Q 2 2008 Q 3 2008 Q 4 2008 Q 1 2009 Q 1 2010 Q 1 2011

Repo rate 4.1 (4.1) 4.3 (4.2) 4.3 (4.3) 4.3 (4.3) 4.4 (4.4) 4.3 (4.3) 4.3

Figure 24. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Main scenario

Lower interest rate

Higher interest rate


Figure 25. CPIXAnnual percentage change

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Lower interest rate


Main scenario


Figure 26. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0Lower interest rateHigher interest rateMain scenario


Figure 27. Output gaps (GDP)Percentage deviation from the HP trend

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3Lower interest rate


Main scenario


Figure 28. Labour market gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2



Main scenario


Figure 29. Number of hours workedAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Lower interest rate


Main Scenario


Figure 30. Employment ratePer cent, seasonally adjusted data

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

Main scenario

Lower interest rate



Figure 31. Open unemployment according to the ILO definition

Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10



Main scenario


Figure 32. GDP, scenario wiith greater financial turmoil


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0Greater financial turmoil

Main scenario


Figure 33. CPIX, scenario with greater financial turmoil


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0Greater financial turmoilMain scenario


Figure 34. Repo rate, scenario with greater financial turmoil

Per cent, quarterly averages

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0Greater financial turmoil

Main scenario


Figure 35. GDP, scenario with higher international inflation


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0Higher international inflation

Main scenario


Figure 36. CPIX, scenario with higher international inflationPer cent, quarterly averages

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


Main scenario


Figure 37. Repo rate, scenario with higher international inflationPer cent, quarterly averages

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


Main scenario


Figure 38. Oil price, scenario with higher oil priceUSD/barrel

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130Main scenario

Higher oil price


Figure 39. The difference between interbank rates and government bond

ratesBasis points

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08

0

50

100

150

200

250Euro area (Germany)SwedenUSAUK


Figure 40. Interbank rates in SwedenPer cent

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb 08

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0STIBOR T/NRepo rateSTIBOR, 1 monthSTIBOR, 3 months

Source: The RiksbankNote. STIBOR T/N refers to overnight right from tomorrow until the day after.

Figure 41. Spread between interbank rates and expected monetary policy

Basis points

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Euro area

USA

UK

Sweden


Figure 42. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

jan/07 mar/07 maj/07 jul/07 sep/07 nov/07 jan/08 mar/08

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Interbank rate

Repo rate

Mortgages

Source: SBAB and the Riksbank

Figure 43. GDPAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

0

1

2

3

4

5

6USAOECDEuro area

Sources: Eurostat, OECD and the US Department of Commerce

Figure 44. Employment and private consumption in the United States


-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Private consumption

Employment

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce

Figure 45. Confidence indicators in the euro area.

Balance, deviations from averages 1995-2007

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30Manufacturing industry

Construction sector

Service sectors

Source: European Commission

Figure 46. Confidence indicators for households and for manufacturing companies in the United KingdomBalance, deviations from averages 1990-2007

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Manufacturing industry

Consumers

Source: European CommissionNote. Broken lines are averages of the respective curves from 1990.

Figure 47. HICP in the euro areaAnnual percentage change

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Excluding energy, foods, alcohol, tobacco

Total

Excluding energy

Source: Eurostat

Figure 48. Monetary policy expectations in the Euro area and the United States

Per cent

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0RefiRefi , 31 January 2008Refi , 18 December 2007Fed fundsFed funds, 31 January 2008Fed funds, 18 December 2007


Diagram 49 Monetary policy expectations in Sweden

Per cent

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Repo rate

Based on bank securities(STINA &FRA) 18December 2007Based on bank securities(STINA &FRA)31 January2008Survey average (Prospera), 5 December 2007

Survey average (Prospera), 16 January 2008

Sources: Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank

Figure 50. Long-term interest ratesPer cent

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

jan/04 jul/04 jan/05 jul/05 jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 jan/08

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5Germany

USA

Sweden

Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

Figure 51. Exchange rate movementsSEK/EUR and SEK/USD

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 jan/08

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0SEK/EUR

SEK/USD


Figure 52. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100


120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138

jan-04 jul-04 jan-05 jul-05 jan-06 jul-06 jan-07 jul-07 jan-08

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138Outcome for the fourth quarter 2007 and forecast for the first quarter 2008 in MPR 2008:1

Forecast for the fourth quarter 2007 and the first quarter 2008 in MPR 2007:3

Figure 53. Stock market movementsIndex, 1 January 1999 = 100

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220OMX 30, SwedenS&P 500, USADAX 30, Germany

Source: Reuters Ecowin

Figure 54. The money supplyAnnual percentage change

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24M0M2M3


Figure 55. House prices and total lending to Swedish households


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Lending to householdsProperty prices


Figure 56. GDPQuarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms,

seasonally adjusted data

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7MPR 2008:1

MPR 2007:3


Figure 57. Confidence indicators for major industries

Seasonally adjusted balance

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Manufacturing industry

Retail trade

Private service industries

Construction

Figure 58. Gross fixed capital formationAnnual percentage change

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

94 96 98 00 02 04 06

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Housing

Business sector excluding housing

Public authorities

Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

Figure 59. Foreign trade with goods at fixed prices


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15ImportExport

Source: Statistics Sweden and The RiksbankNote. Three month moving average

Figure 60. Retail sales and household consumption


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

94 96 98 00 02 04 06

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Total household consumptionHousehold consumption of retail goodsRetail sales

Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

Figure 61. Household expectations of the futureBalance

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80Confidence indicator

Unemployment


Figure 62. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices.


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24Redundancy notices (right scale)Unfilled vacancies (left scale)New vacancies (left scales)

Source: Swedish Public Employment ServiceNote. Three month moving average.

Figure 63. Vacancies and redundancy notices


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

01 02 03 04 05 06 07

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Redundancy notices

Vacancies

Source: Statistics Sweden

Figure 64. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sector

Balance and annual percentage change

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6Hiring plans according to NIER’s quarterly businesstendency survey (left scale)

Number of employed according to NationalAccounts (right scale)

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

Figure 65. Labour productivity for the economy as a whole


-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5MPR 2007:3

MPR 2008:1

HP-trend


Figure 66. Estimated HP gapsPercentage deviation from HP trend

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5Hours workedEmploymentGDP


Figure 67. Capacity utilisation in industry Per cent, seasonally adjusted data

75

80

85

90

95

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

75

80

85

90

95Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation in industry

NIER, current capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry

Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

Figure 68. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour

Per cent, seasonally adjusted data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Manufacturing industryConstruction sectorBusiness sectorRetail tradePrivate service sector

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

Figure 69. Employment rateProportion of the population aged 16-64 in the labour

force

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

Employment rate 16-64 year-olds

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.

Figure 70. Wages in the construction, service and manufacturing sectors


1

2

3

4

5

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

1

2

3

4

5

6IndustryConstruction sectorService sectors

Sources: National Mediation OfficeNote. Three month moving average.

Figure 71. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

94 96 98 00 02 04 06

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Unit labour costHourly labour costProductivity


Figure 72. Wage shareLabour costs' share of the added value

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

Wage share

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Four-quarter moving average.

Figure 73. Actual inflation (CPI) and households’ and companies’ expectations

of inflation one year aheadAnnual percentage change

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

-1

0

1

2

3

4

CPIHouseholds, Statistics SwedenHouseholds, National Institute of Economic ResearchCompanies, National Institute of Economic Research

Figure 74. Different agents’ expectations of inflation two years ahead


0

1

2

3

4

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

0

1

2

3

4Purchasing managersSocial partners

Money market agents

Source: Prospera Research AB

Figure 75. The difference between nominal and inflation-linked five-year rates (break-

even inflation)Percentage points

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Break-even inflation


Figure 76. CPI, CPIX and CPIX excluding energy


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0CPIX excluding energyCPIXCPI


Figure 77. CPIX excluding energy, broken down into goods, services and food


-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Goods excluding food and energy (27%)

Services (45%)

Food (18%)


Figure 78. Producer pricesAnnual percentage change

Source: Statistics Sweden

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15Price index for domestic assets, consumption goods

Price index for domestic assets, intermediate goods

Figure 79. Commodity pricesUDS, annual percentage change

Source: The Economist

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100FoodOther agricultural productsMetalsTotal

Figure 80. Different measures of underlying inflationAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

-1

0

1

2

3

4CPIXTRIM85CPIX excluding energyUND24

Sources: Statistics Sweden The Riksbank

Table 5. Indicators for GDP in the short term

Indicator Most recent outcome Tendency

Exports of goods Dec-07 +/- Imports of goods Dec-07 - Retail trade Dec-07 - Industrial production Nov-07 - NIER s Research’s Business Tendency Survey Jan-08 +/- Consumer Tendency survey Jan-08 - Purchasing Managers Index Jan-08 +/-

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure B1. Energy prices in the CPI adjusted for the effects of changes in

indirect taxes Annual percentage change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

95 97 99 01 03 05 07

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Oil productsElectricityEnergy, total


Figure B2. CPIX inflation and direct and indirect effects of changes in energy prices during the

period 2002-2007 Annual percentage change and percentage points

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

02 03 04 05 06 07

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Direct effectsIndirect effectsCPIX


Figure B3. The Economists commodity price index for food

USD, annual percentage change

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

95 97 99 01 03 05 07

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50Food

Source: The Economist

Figure B4. Consumer and producer food prices


-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

95 97 99 01 03 05 07

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9Food in CPIXFood in ITPI


Figure B5. Food price in the CPI in some countries


-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 02 04 06

-5

0

5

10

15

20USAUnited KingdomEuro areaChinaSweden

Sources: The respective countries’ statistical agencies

Table A1. Inflation, 12-month rate Annual percentage change


Mar -07 Mar -08 Mar -09 Mar -10 Mar -11

CPI 1.9 3.4 (2.8) 2.6 (2.5) 2.4 (2.3) 2.2

CPIX 1.2 2.3 (1.8) 2.2 (2.1) 2.1 (2.0) 2.0

CPIX excl. energy 1.2 2.2 (1.9) 2.2 (2.1) 2.3 (2.2) 2.2

Table A2. Change in CPI compared to

change in CPIX Annual percentage change and percentage points


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 CPIX excl. energy 0.6 1.5 (1.4) 2.2 (2.0) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.2) CPIX 1.2 1.2 (1.1) 2.5 (2.0) 2.2 (2.0) 2.1 (2.0) Changes in mortgage interest expenditure* 0.1 0.9 (0.8) 0.8 (0.8) 0.4 (0.4) 0.3 (0.3) Changes in indirect taxes and subsidies* 0.1 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (0.2) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) CPI 1.4 2.2 (2.1) 3.4 (2.9) 2.5 (2.4) 2.3 (2.2)

* Contribution to CPI-inflation, per cent

Table A3. Interest rates, exchange rates and public finances

Per cent, annual average


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Repo rate 2.2 3.5 (3.5) 4.3 (4.3) 4.3 (4.4) 4.3 (4.3) 10-year rate 3.7 4.2 (4.2) 4.5 (4.6) 4.8 (4.9) 5.0 (5.1) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-19=100 127.4 125.2 (124.9) 124.1 (122.4) 123.1 (121.5) 122.9 (121.1) General government net lending 2.2 3.1 (2.6) 2.3 (2.6) 1.7 (2.2) 1.6 (1.8)

Table A4. International conditions Annual percentage change

Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

GDP 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

USA 2.9 2.2 (2.0) 1.7 (2.0) 2.5 (2.8) 3.0 (3.3) Japan 2.2 1.9 (1.9) 1.5 (1.7) 1.6 (1.6) 1.5 (1.5) Euro area 2.8 2.7 (2.5) 1.7 (1.9) 2.0 (2.1) 2.1 (2.0) OECD 3.0 2.7 (2.5) 2.1 (2.3) 2.5 (2.6) 2.7 (2.7) TCW-Weighted 3.1 2.8 (2.7) 1.9 (2.1) 2.1 (2.2) 2.3 (2.3) World* 4.9 4.8 (4.8) 4.1 (4.5) 4.2 (4.3) 4.3 (4.4)

CPI 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

USA 3.2 2.9 (2.8) 2.6 (2.2) 1.8 (2.1) 2.2 (2.4) Japan 0.2 -0.1 (-0.1) 0.2 (0.2) 0.4 (0.6) 0.5 (0.6)

Euro area (HICP) 2.2 2.1 (2.0) 2.5 (2.0) 2.1 (1.9) 1.9 (1.9)

OECD 2.6 2.4 (2.3) 2.4 (2.1) 2.0 (2.1) 2.1 (2.2)

TCW-Weighted 2.1 2.0 (1.9) 2.3 (1.9) 1.9 (1.8) 1.9 (1.9)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Crude oil price, USD/barrel, annual average 65 73 (70) 89 (77) 87 (75) 86 (74) Swedish export market growth 9.4 4.3 (4.1) 5.8 (6.3) 6.2 (6.3) 6.4 (6.3)

*New weights from the World bank have been used for the aggregate world growth for the previous forecast, too. These values thus do not correspond to those published in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2007.

Table A5. GDP and GDP by expenditure



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Private consumption 2.5 3.1 (2.8) 2.7 (3.4) 2.9 (3.1) 3.2 (3.2) Public consumption 1.5 0.3 (1.5) 1.0 (1.2) 0.4 (0.8) 1.1 (1.0) Gross fixed capital formation 7.7 8.0 (9.3) 4.4 (4.7) 1.9 (2.5) 2.4 (2.5) Inventory investments* 0.2 0.9 (0.3) -0.1 (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) Export 8.9 5.0 (5.3) 5.5 (5.9) 4.8 (5.4) 5.9 (5.9) Import 8.2 9.0 (7.5) 6.2 (7.0) 5.1 (6.2) 5.9 (6.3) GDP 4.1 2.5 (3.1) 2.4 (2.8) 2.0 (2.3) 2.8 (2.6) GDP, calendar-adjusted 4.4 2.8 (3.3) 2.1 (2.7) 2.2 (2.3) 2.5 (2.4)

* Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Table A6. Output, employment and unemployment

Annual percentage change, unless otherwise else indicated

Sources: National Labour market Board, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

* Percentage of the labour force

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Population, aged 16-64 1,0 0,9 (0,9) 0,4 (0,6) 0,5 (0,3) 0,1 (0,1) GDP, Calendar-adjusted 4,4 2,8 (3,3) 2,1 (2,7) 2,2 (2,3) 2,5 (2,4) Number of hours worked 2,0 3,2 (3,2) 1,0 (1,2) 0,1 (0,2) 0,1 (0,0) Number of employed (EU definition) 1,9 2,5 (2,7) 1,1 (1,5) 0,2 (0,2) 0,1 (0,0) Labour force (EU definition) 1,1 1,5 (1,7) 0,8 (1,1) 0,1 (0,1) 0,1 (0,0)

Unemployment (EU definition)* 7,0 6,1 (6,1) 5,9 (5,8) 5,9 (5,7) 5,8 (5,8) Labour market programmes* 2,9 1,8 (1,9) 1,8 (1,8) 1,9 (1,9) 1,8 (1,8)

Table A7. Wages, productivity and labour costs for the economy as a

whole Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Hourly wage, NMO 3.1 3.6 (3.9) 4.2 (4.5) 4.0 (4.2) 3.8 (3.8) Hourly wage, NA 3.4 3.8 (4.3) 4.5 (4.7) 4.3 (4.5) 4.1 (4.1) Employer contributions -0.2 -0.1 (0.6) 0.0 (-0.1) 0.0 (-0.2) 0.1 (0.1)

Hourly labour costs, NA 3.2 3.8 (4.9) 4.5 (4.6) 4.3 (4.3) 4.1 (4.2)

Productivity 2.4 -0.4 (0.1) 1.1 (1.5) 2.1 (2.1) 2.4 (2.3)

Unit labour cost 0.8 4.2 (4.8) 3.3 (3.1) 2.2 (2.2) 1.6 (1.8)

Table A8. Repo rate Per cent, annual average


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Main scenario 2.2 3.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 Lower interest rate 2.2 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.6 Higher interest rate 2.2 3.5 4.8 5.4 5.0

Table A9. CPIX Annual percentage change



Table A10. GDP Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data



Table A11. Hours worked Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Main scenario 2.0 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 Lower interest rate 2.0 3.2 1.2 0.9 0.3 Higher interest rate 2.0 3.2 0.7 -0.7 -0.1

Table A12. Percentage of unemployed 16-64 year-olds, according to ILO definition

Per cent of labour force, calendar-adjusted data



Table A13. Scenario with greater financial turmoil

Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified


* Per cent, annual average

Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.

2007 2008 2009 2010

GDP 2.8 (2.8) 2.0 (2.1) 2.1 (2.2) 2.3 (2.5) CPIX 1.2 (1.2) 2.4 (2.5) 1.9 (2.2) 1.5 (2.1) Repo rate* 3.5 (3.5) 4.1 (4.3) 3.7 (4.3) 3.2 (4.3) TCW-weighted GDP 2.8 (2.8) 1.9 (1.9) 1.7 (2.1) 1.6 (2.3) TCW- weighted CPI 2.0 (2.0) 2.3 (2.3) 1.6 (1.9) 1.1 (1.9) TCW- weighted short-term rates* 4.3 (4.3) 3.7 (3.8) 2.8 (3.5) 2.9 (4.1)

Table A14. Scenario with higher international inflation

Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified




2007 2008 2009 2010 GDP 2.8 (2.8) 2.1 (2.1) 2.2 (2.2) 2.5 (2.5)

CPIX 1.2 (1.2) 2.6 (2.5) 2.4 (2.2) 2.1 (2.1) Repo rate* 3.5 (3.5) 4.6 (4.3) 4.7 (4.3) 4.5 (4.3) TCW-weighted GDP 2.8 (2.8) 1.9 (1.9) 2.1 (2.1) 2.2 (2.3) TCW- weighted CPI 2.0 (2.0) 2.9 (2.3) 2.7 (1.9) 2.4 (1.9) TCW- weighted short-term rates* 4.3 (4.3) 4.1 (3.8) 4.1 (3.5) 4.7 (4.1)

Table A15. Scenario with higher oil price Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank



2007 2008 2009 2010

Crude oil price, USD/barrel 73 (73) 117 (89) 122 (87) 119 (86)

GDP 2.8 (2.8) 2.1 (2.1) 1.8 (2.2) 2.2 (2.5)

CPIX 1.2 (1.2) 2.7 (2.5) 2.8 (2.2) 2.3 (2.1) Repo rate* 3.5 (3.5) 4.8 (4.3) 5.0 (4.3) 4.7 (4.3) TCW-weighted GDP 2.8 (2.8) 1.9 (1.9) 2.0 (2.1) 2.1 (2.3) TCW- weighted CPI 2.0 (2.0) 2.6 (2.3) 2.2 (1.9) 1.9 (1.9) TCW- weighted short-term rates* 4.3 (4.3) 4.2 (3.8) 3.9 (3.5) 4.4 (4.1)

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MPR 2008:1 080213