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MPR July110704
Figure 1.01. Growth in the world and in SwedenAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Sweden
The world
Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.02. Unemployment with uncertainty bandsPer cent of the labour force
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors.
Figure 1.03. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors.
Figure 1.04. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Figure 1.05. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Source: The RiksbankNote. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.
Figure 1.06. Purchasing managers' indexIndex, seasonally-adjusted data
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Euro areaUSABRICTCW-weighted countries
Source: Markit EconomicsNote. TCW refers to a combination of Sweden’s most important trading partners
Figure 1.07. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
OutcomeFutures up to and including 2010-06-29Futures up to and including 2010-04-12
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.
Figure 1.08. Consumer pricesAnnual percentage change
Sources: National sources and the RiksbankNote: Swedish data refers to CPIF inflation. TCW-weighted international data refers to CPI or HICP. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
Figure 1.9 . GDP in the USAQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
April
July
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Riksbank
Figure 1.10. Comparison of recovery in Sweden, the euro area and USAGDP level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
USA
Euro area
Sweden
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, SCB and the Riksbank
Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking out in the USA = 100.
Figure 1.11. GDP in different regions and countriesQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sweden
Euro area
USA
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.12. HICPAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sweden
Euro area
United Kingdom
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 1.13. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication.
Figure 1.14. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Consumption (left scale)
Disposable income (left scale)
Saving ratio (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.15. Swedish exports and the world market for Swedish exports Annual percentage change
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Swedish exports
Swedish export market
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The points refer to the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year. The export market index is defined in the glossary.
Figure 1.16. Investments abroadIndex, 2007 =100
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Norway
Euro area
United Kingdom
USA
Sources: National sources
Figure 1.17. Investment ratioPer cent of GDP, current prices
14
16
18
20
22
24
14
16
18
20
22
24
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Note. Four-quarter moving average.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.18. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Employed, aged 16-64
Labour force, aged 16-64
Employed, aged 15-74
Labour force, aged 15-74
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Pre-1987 data have been spliced by the Riksbank.
Figure 1.19. Employment and labour force participation ratesEmployment and labour force as a percentage of the population, aged 16-64, seasonally-adjusted data
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Employment rate
Labour force participation rate
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
Figure 1.20. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
07 08 09 10 11
Unemployment (outcome)
Forecast based on actual GDP (2010q1-)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Estimate based on historical correlation of unemployment and GDP (Okun’s law).
Figure 1.21. Proportion of companies reporting a shortage of labourPer cent, seasonally adjusted data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Manufacturing industry
Construction sector
Retail trade
Private sector industries
Source: National Insitute of Economic Research
Figure 1.22. Capacity utilisation in industryPer cent, seasonally adjusted data
70
75
80
85
90
95
70
75
80
85
90
95
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation
NIER, current capacity utilisation
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 1.23. GDP-gap and RU-indicatorPer cent and standard deviation
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
GDP gap (HP)
GDP gap
RU indicator
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. GDP gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. GDP gap (PF) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1.
Figure 1.24. Hours gapPer cent
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Hours gap (HP)
Hours gap
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank’s assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked.
Figure 1.25. Wages and wage expectationsAnnual percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Wages
Wage expectations among the social partners
Sources: National Mediation Office, TNS Sifo Prospera and the Riksbank
Note. Refers to wages according to short-term salaries statistics.
Figure 1.26. Profit share in the business sectorAnnual percentage change and gross surplus as share of value added in the business sector
Note. Labour cost deflated by business sector’s value-added price
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Profit share (left scale)
Productivity (right scale)
Real labour cost per hour (right scale)
Figure 1.27. Cost pressures in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable income
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Productivity
Labour cost per hour
Unit labour cost
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.28. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100
Source: The RiksbankNote. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.
Figure 1.29. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CPICPIFCPIF excluding energy
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed interest rate.
Figure 1.30. Interest rate cost index in the CPI Annual percentage change
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.31. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
April July
Figure 2.01. Hourly labour costAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Higher wage increases
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.02. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Wage increases driven by increasedproductivityWage increases over and aboveproductivityMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.03. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Wage increases driven by increasedproductivityWage increases over and aboveproductivityMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.04. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Wage increases driven by increasedproductivityWage increases over and aboveproductivityMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.05. Labour productivityAnnual percentage change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Wage increases driven byincreased productivityWage increases over and aboveproductivityMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.06. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Wage increases driven by increasedproductivityWage increases over and above productivity
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.07. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Wage increases driven by increasedproductivity
Wage increases over and aboveproductivity
Main scenario
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.08. GDP abroadTCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
More severe crisis in publicfinancesMain scenario
Sources: National sources and the RiksbankTCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
Figure 2.09. Inflation abroadTCW-weighted, annual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
More severe crisis in publicfinances
Main scenario
Sources: National sources and the RiksbankTCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
Figure 2.10. Interest rate abroadTCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
More severe crisis in publicfinancesMain scenario
Sources: National sources and the RiksbankTCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
Figure 2.11. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
More severe crisis in public finances
More severe crisis in public finances with moreexpansionary monetary policy
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.12. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
More severe crisis in public finances
More severe crisis in public finances with moreexpansionary monetary policyMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.13. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
More severe crisis in public finances
More severe crisis in public finances with moreexpansionary monetary policyMain scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.14. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
More severe crisis in public finances
More severe crisis in public finances with moreexpansionary monetary policy
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.15. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
More severe crisis in public finances
More severe crisis in public finances with moreexpansionary monetary policy
Main scenario
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.16. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.17. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.18. Hours gapPer cent
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.19. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.20. GDP gapPer cent
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Refers to GDP's deviation from trend calculated using a production function.
Figure 2.21. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.22. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.01. GDP in Taiwan, South Korea and ChinaAnnual percentage change
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Taiwan
South Korea
China
Sources: National sources
Figure 3.02. Purchasing mangarer’s indexIndex
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
China
Singapore
Source: Markit Economics
Figure 3.03. World Import VolumeWorld trade monitor Index, 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
World, total
Advanced economies
Emerging economies
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Figure 3.04. GDP in different regions and countriesQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Sweden
Euro area
USA
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.05. Sales of existing and new homes in the USAIndex 2000-01-31 = 100
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
New
Existing
Sources U.S. Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors
Figure 3.06. Unemployment in the USAPer cent of labour force
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
48 53 58 63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98 03 08
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 3.07. GDP in a selection of countries in the euro areaQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Belgium
Netherlands
Portugal
Germany
France
Source: Eurostat
Figure 3.08. GDP in Denmark, Finland and NorwayQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Denmark
Norway, including oil
Norway, mainland
Finland
Sources: National sources
Figure 3.09. Consumer prices Annual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
USA
Euro area
UK
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD
Figure 3.10. Ten year government bond yieldPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Sweden
Euro area (Germany)
USA
UK
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.11. Interest rate differential between countries with financial problems and Germany, 10-year maturityPercentage points
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
07 08 09 10 11
Ireland
Spain
Italy
Portugal
Greece
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.12. TCW-weighted exchange rateIndex, 1992-11-18 = 100
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Source: Riksbanken
Figure 3.13. Policy rate expectations measured in terms of market pricesPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sweden 2011-06-22Sweden 2011-04-20Euro area 2011-06-22Euro area 2011-04-20USA 2011-06-22USA 2011-04-20United Kingdom 2011-06-22United Kingdom 2011-04-20
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankNote. The implied forward rates are adjusted for credit risk and maturity premiums.
Figure 3.14. Repo rate expectations measured as market prices and surveys in SwedenPer cent
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank
Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.
70
80
90
100
110
70
80
90
100
110
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
GDPManufacturing output according to the National AccountsServices output according to the National Accounts
Figure 3.15. Difference between expected STIBOR and expected repo ratePercentage points
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. The difference between a 3-month forward contract (FRA) starting within 3 months for an interbank rate (STIBOR) and a forward contract for the repo rate (RIBA).
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul-11
Figure 3.16. Variable listed mortgage rate, repo rate and difference between variable listed mortgage rate and repo ratePer cent and percentage points
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Repo rate
Mortgages - averages
Mortgage spread
Sources: Reuters EcoWin och Riksbanken
Figure 3.17. Bank lending to companies and householdsAnnual percentage change
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Households
Companies
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.18. GDP and productionIndex, 2007 = 100, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: Statistics Sweden
70
80
90
100
110
70
80
90
100
110
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
GDPManufacturing output according to the National AccountsServices output according to the National Accounts
Figure 3.19. The Economic Tendency IndicatorIndex, mean = 100, standard deviation = 10
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
The Economic Tendency IndicatorMean+/- one standard deviation
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.20. Retail salesVolume, index 2005=100, seasonally-adjusted data
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.21. Gross fixed capital formationAnnual percentage change and per cent of gross fixed capital formation in preceding years
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Business sector excluding housing
Housing investment
Public authorities
Gross fixed capital formation
Note. The bars represent the respective contributions to total gross fixed capital
formation.
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.22. Swedish foreign trade Index, 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Import of goods
Export of goods
Swedish export market
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.23. Employment, labour force and unemploymentThousands and percentage of the labour force, 15-74 years, seasonally adjusted data
0
2
4
6
8
10
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Employed (left)
Labour force (left)
Unemployment (right)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Three-month moving averages.
Figure 3.24. Wages according to the National Accounts and to the short-term wage statisticsAnnual percentage change
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The short-term wage statistics for the last 12 months are preliminary and are usually revised upwards. The grey dots in the figure show the Riksbank’s assessment of the final outcome according to the statistics.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Wages according to the National AccountsWages according to the short-term wage statistics, preliminaryWages according to the short-term wage statistics, definitiveWages according to the short-term wage statistics, estimate of definitive outcome
Figure 3.25. Wages in the business sectorAnnual percentage change
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Construction sector
Service sector
Industry
Source: National Mediation OfficeNote. Three-month moving average. Refers to wages according to short-term wage statistics. Preliminary outcomes for last 12 months, which are usually revised upwards.
Figure 3.26. All respondents' expectations of inflation one, two and five years aheadPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
1 year
2 years
5 years
Source: TNS SIFO Prospera
Figure 3.27. Expectations of inflation one year aheadPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Households (NIER)
Companies (NIER)
All (Prospera)
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and TNS SIFO Prospera
Note. Household figures are monthly, others quarterly.
Figure 3.28. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CPI
CPIF
CPIF excluding energy
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.29. Commodity pricesIndex 2005 = 100, USD and USD per barrel
Sources: The Economist and Intercontinental Exchange
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Food
Metals
Other agricultural products
Oil (right scale)
Figure A01. Yields on government bonds with 10 years to maturityPer cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
07 08 09 10 11
USA
UK
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Germany
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure A02. Fiscal tightening requirementsCyclically-adjusted general government net lending excluding interest expenditure (primary balance) as a percentage of GDP
Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor April 2011Note. Primary balance = budget balance - net interest income. Cyclically-adjusted primary balance is primary balance adjusted for cyclical factors.
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
USA UK Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Belgium
Actual primary balance 2010
Cyclically-adjusted primary balance 2010
Forecast of cyclically-adjusted primary balance 2013
Cyclically-adjusted primary balance 2020-2030required to achieve a debt ratio of 60% of GDP 2030
Figure A03 . Development of debt with different primary balancesPercentage of GDP
40
60
80
100
120
140
40
60
80
100
120
140
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Spain, base scenarioSpain, primary balance 2000-2007Italy, base scenarioItaly, primary balance 2000-2007Portugal, base scenarioPortugal, primary balance 2000-2007
Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank.Note. Base scenario according to the IMF’s budget consolidation strategy to reach a debt ratio of 60 per cent by 2030. The broken lines represent the debt ratios if the base scenario's assumptions regarding the level of the primary balance to be achieved by 2020 are replaced by the average for 2000-2007.
Figure A04 . Development of debt with different primary balancesPer cent of GDP
Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank.Note. Base scenario according to the IMF’s budget consolidation strategy to reach a debt ratio of 60 per cent by 2030. The broken lines represent the debt ratios if the base scenario’s assumptions regarding the level of the primary balance to be achieved by 2020 are replaced by the average for 2000–2007.
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Euro area, base scenarioEuro area, primary balance 2000-2007USA, base scenarioUSA, primary balance 2000-2007UK, base scenarioUK, primary balance 2000-2007
Figure A05 . The development of debt with a higher interest-growth differentialPer cent of GDP
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Spain, primary balance 2000-2007
Spain, primary balance 2000-2007 and r-g=3
Italy, primary balance 2000-2007
Italy, primary balance 2000-2007 and r-g=3
Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank.Note. The debt ratio of the base scenario’s assumption of the level of the primary balance in 2020 is replaced by the average for 2000–2007, together with an interest-growth differential from 2016 of 3 percentage points instead of 1 percentage point.
Figure A06. The development of debt with a higher interest-growth differentialPer cent of GDP
Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank
Note. The debt ratio of the base scenario’s assumption of the level of the primary balance in 2020 is replaced y the average for 2000–2007, together with an interest-growth differential from 2016 of 3 percentage points instead of 1 percentage point.
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Euro area, primary balance 2000-2007
Euro area, primary balance 2000-2007 and r-g=3
USA, primary balance 2000-2007
USA, primary balance 2000-2007 and r-g=3
UK, primary balance 2000-2007
UK, primary balance 2000-2007 and r-g=3
Figure A07. Unit labour costsIndex 2000 = 100
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Germany
Greece
Irland
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Source: OECD
Figure A08. Unemployment, 16-64 years Per cent of the labour force
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
The Riksbank's forecast
Average 30 years
Average 20 years
Sources: SCB and RiksbankenNote. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
Figure A09. CPIAnnual percentage change
Source: Statistics Sweden
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 14
CPI
Average 1971-1992
Average 1993-2010
Figure A10 . GDPAnnual percentage change
Source: Stattistics Sweden
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
GDP
Mean 1970-1992
Mean 1993-2010
Figure A11 . WagesWhole economy, annual percentage change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Nominal wage
Real wage
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Three-year moving average. CPI-deflated real wages.
Figure A12 . Employment in different sectorsChanges compared with second quarter 2008, thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
08 09 10 11
Services producersPublic authorities and private education, healthcare, etc.AgricultureManufacturing industryConstruction industryTotal
Figure A13 . Employment in different sectorsThousands
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Agriculture, forestry and fishingConstruction industryManufacturing industry including energyServices producersPublic authorities and private education, healthcare, etc.
Figure A14 . Labour force participation and employment rate, 15-74 age groupPer cent of the population
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12
Labour force participation
Employment rate
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
Figure A15 . Labour force participation and employment rate, 15-24 age groupPer cent of the population
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12
Labour force participation
Employment rate
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
Figure A16 . Labour force participation and employment rate, 55-74 age groupPer cent of the population
30
34
38
42
46
50
30
34
38
42
46
50
76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12
Labour force participation
Employment rate
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
Figure A17 . Labour force participation and employment rate, 25-54 age groupPer cent of the population
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
76 81 86 91 96 01 06 11
Labour force participation
Employment rate
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
Figure A18 . UnemploymentPer cent of labour force
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12
15-24 years25-54 years55-74 years15-74 years
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
Figure A19. Relationship between vacancies and unemploymentPer cent of labour force
Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.
Note. Vacancy data according to Statistics Sweden has been written back with the aid of statistics from the Swedish Public Employment Service for the period 1981–2000.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Vac
ancy
rat
e
Unemployment
2010
1981
1990
2000
Figure A20. Unemployment, 15-74 age group per educational levelPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted quarterly data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Secondary education
Upper-secondary education
Higher education
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure A21. Unemployment in different countriesPer cent of labour force
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
Germany
Spain
France
Source: Eurostat
Figure A22. Household and corporate inflation expectations one year ahead and the CPIAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
CPI Households (NIER) Corporate (NIER)
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure A23. Social partners, purchasing managers and money market agents expectation of inflation 1, 2 and 5 years aheadAnnual percentage change
Source: TNS SIFO ProsperaNote. The responses refer to the average for all respondents.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
1 year 2 year 5 year
Figure A24. Inflation expectations estimated using financial instrumentsAnnual percentage change
Source: The Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
Inflation expectations, 5 years
Nominal short-term interest rate, 5 years
Real short-term interest rate, 5 years
Figure A25. The Riksbank's CPI forecastsAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CPI
MPR, July 2011
MPU, December 2010
MPR, July 2010
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A26. CPI and CPIF, forecasts and projectionsAnnual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CPI CPIF
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The ordinary forecast period runs to the vertical line of September 2014. Beyond the forecast horizon it is assumed that the CPIF will increase by 2 per cent and that the repo rate will gradually move to 4 per cent.
Figure A27. The Riksbank's and other forecasters' forecasts for the CPIAnnual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden, the respective forecasters and the Riksbank
Note. The figure shows the annual average for CPI inflation. The points show the highest, lowest and average of the forecasts of nine different forecasters. For 2013 there are only two forecasts to compare with.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CPI
The Riksbank
Highest
Average
Lowest
Figure A28. The Riksbank's forecasts for the CPI and inflation expectations according to the social partners, purchasing managers and money market agentsAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CPI
The Riksbank
Social partners
Purchasing managers
Money market agents
Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The ordinary forecast period runs to the vertical line of September 2014. Beyond the forecast horizon it is assumed that the CPIF will increase by 2 per cent and that the repo rate will gradually move to 4 per cent.
TablesThe figures in parentheses show the forecast in the previous Monetary Policy Update (April 2011).
Table 1. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average values
Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014
Repo rate 1.7 (1.7) 2.0 (2.0) 2.3 (2.2) 2.9 (2.9) 3.4 (3.4) 3.8
Source: The Riksbank
Table 2. Inflation, annual averageAnnual percentage change
2010 2011 2012 2013
CPI 1.2 (1.2) 3.1 (3.2) 2.7 (2.8) 2.8 (2.7)
CPIF 2.0 (2.0) 1.6 (1.6) 1.7 (1.7) 2.1 (2.0)
CPIF excl. energy 1.5 (1.5) 1.1 (1.1) 1.8 (1.7) 2.1 (2.1)
HICP 1.9 (1.9) 1.6 (1.7) 1.7 (1.7) 2.0 (2.0)
Note. The rate of change in the CPI is based on revised index figures, which may differ from the established index figures. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index of
consumer prices.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 3. Summary of financial forecastsAnnual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified
2010 2011 2012 2013
Repo rate 0.5 (0.5) 1.8 (1.8) 2.8 (2.8) 3.4 (3.4) 10-year rate 2.8 (2.8) 3.2 (3.5) 3.8 (4.1) 4.3 (4.5) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 129.3 (129.3) 120.8 (119.6) 120.2 (120.1) 120.2 (121.1)
General government net lending* -0.2 (-0.3) 0.9 (1.0) 1.2 (1.4) 1.4 (1.5)
* Per cent of GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 4. International conditionsAnnual percentage change
Note. The figures in parentheses indicate the global purchasing-power adjusted GDP-weights, according to the IMF, 2010.
GDP 2010 2011 2012 2013
Euro area (0.14) 1.7 (1.7) 1.9 (1.5) 1.6 (1.6) 2.2 (2.3)
USA (0.20) 2.9 (2.9) 2.3 (2.8) 2.7 (3.0) 3.2 (2.8)
Japan (0.06) 4.0 (4.0) -0.5 (0.4) 2.8 (2.6) 1.8 (1.8)
OECD (0.55) 2.9 (2.9) 2.1 (2.3) 2.6 (2.6) 2.8 (2.6)
TCW-weighted (0.47) 1.9 (1.9) 1.7 (1.8) 1.9 (2.0) 2.3 (2.3)
World (1.00) 5.0 (4.9) 4.2 (4.3) 4.4 (4.4) 4.5 (4.4)
CPI 2010 2011 2012 2013 Euro area (HICP) 1.6 (1.6) 2.7 (2.2) 1.6 (1.5) 1.8 (1.8)
USA 1.6 (1.6) 3.2 (2.5) 2.4 (1.9) 1.7 (2.0)
Japan -0.7 (-0.7) 0.1 (0.0) 0.5 (0.5) 0.7 (0.7)
TCW-weighted 1.6 (1.6) 2.6 (2.2) 1.8 (1.6) 1.8 (1.8)
Note. The Swedish export market index is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports. They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports. The weight assigned to a country is its share of Swedish exports of
goods.
Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
2010 2011 2012 2013 Policy rates in the rest of the world, TCW-weighted, per cent
0.5 (0.5) 1.0 (1.0) 1.6 (1.8) 2.7 (2.8)
Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 80 (80) 112 (114) 111 (114) 108 (110)
Swedish export market 8.8 (8.4) 8.2 (8.3) 6.7 (6.7) 6.4 (6.5)
Table 5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2010 2011 2012 2013
Private consumption 3.4 (3.5) 2.4 (3.0) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.2) Public consumption 2.5 (2.6) 1.5 (1.4) 0.7 (0.5) 0.7 (0.7) Gross fixed capital formation 7.1 (6.3) 8.7 (10.6) 6.7 (6.5) 5.6 (5.6) Inventory investment* 2.1 (2.1) 0.3 (0.1) -0.8 (-0.3) 0.0 (0.0) Exports 11.0 (10.7) 9.3 (8.4) 5.5 (5.6) 5.9 (5.9) Imports 12.8 (12.7) 8.3 (7.9) 5.0 (6.0) 6.5 (6.5) GDP 5.7 (5.5) 4.4 (4.6) 2.2 (2.3) 2.5 (2.5) GDP, calendar-adjusted 5.4 (5.3) 4.4 (4.6) 2.6 (2.7) 2.5 (2.5) Final figure for domestic demand* 3.7 (3.6) 3.1 (3.8) 2.5 (2.4) 2.3 (2.4) Net exports* 0.0 (-0.1) 1.0 (0.8) 0.6 (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) Current account (NA), per cent of GDP 6.2 (6.2) 6.4 (6.6) 6.7 (6.4) 6.5 (6.3)
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Note. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar-adjusted, unless otherwise stated. NA is the National
Accounts.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 6. Production and employmentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
2010 2011 2012 2013 Population, aged 16-64 0.5 (0.5) 0.3 (0.3) 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) Potential hours worked 0.9 (0.9) 0.5 (0.5) 0.4 (0.4) 0.3 (0.3) GDP, calendar-adjusted 5.4 (5.3) 4.4 (4.6) 2.6 (2.7) 2.5 (2.5) Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted
1.7 (1.9) 1.7 (1.8) 1.2 (1.2) 0.7 (0.7)
Employed, aged 15-74 1.0 (1.0) 2.5 (2.5) 1.0 (0.9) 0.5 (0.5) Labour force, aged 15-74 1.1 (1.1) 1.3 (1.3) 0.3 (0.3) 0.2 (0.2) Unemployment, aged 15-74 * 8.4 (8.4) 7.4 (7.3) 6.7 (6.7) 6.4 (6.4)
* Per cent of labour force
Note. Potential hours refers to the long-term sustainable level for the number of hours worked.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
2010 2011 2012 2013
Hourly wage, NMO 2.6 (2.7) 2.9 (2.9) 3.3 (3.3) 3.5 (3.6)
Hourly wage, NA 1.3 (1.4) 3.9 (3.2) 3.6 (3.4) 3.8 (3.8)
Employer’s contribution* -0.3 (-0.3) -0.1 (-0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 (0.0)
Hourly labour cost, NA 1.0 (1.1) 3.8 (3.0) 3.6 (3.5) 3.8 (3.8)
Productivity 3.6 (3.3) 2.6 (2.8) 1.5 (1.5) 1.8 (1.8)
Unit labour cost -2.5 (-2.2) 1.1 (0.2) 2.1 (1.9) 1.9 (2.0)
* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.
Note. NMO is the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics and NA is the National Accounts. Labour cost per hour is defined as the sum of actual wages, collective charges and wage taxes divided by the seasonally adjusted total number
of hours worked. Unit labour cost is defined as labour cost divided by seasonally adjusted value added at constant prices.
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 8. Alternative scenario: wage increases over and above productivityAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
2011 2012 2013
Hourly labour cost 3.8 (3.8) 3.9 (3.6) 4.8 (3.8) CPIF 1.6 (1.6) 2.0 (1.7) 2.5 (2.1) CPI 3.1 (3.1) 3.1 (2.7) 3.3 (2.8) Unemployment, per cent 7.4 (7.4) 6.8 (6.7) 7.1 (6.4) Labour productivity 2.6 (2.6) 1.5 (1.5) 2.0 (1.8) GDP, calendar-adjusted 4.4 (4.4) 2.5 (2.6) 2.1 (2.5) Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 2.9 (2.8) 3.6 (3.4)
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 9. Alternative scenario: wage increases driven by increased productivityAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
2011 2012 2013
Hourly labour cost 3.8 (3.8) 3.9 (3.6) 4.8 (3.8) CPIF 1.6 (1.6) 1.7 (1.7) 1.9 (2.1) CPI 3.1 (3.1) 2.6 (2.7) 2.6 (2.8) Unemployment, per cent 7.4 (7.4) 6.6 (6.7) 6.0 (6.4) Labour productivity 2.6 (2.6) 2.3 (1.5) 3.0 (1.8) GDP, calendar-adjusted 4.4 (4.4) 3.4 (2.6) 4.1 (2.5) Repo rate, per cent 1.8 (1.8) 2.8 (2.8) 3.4 (3.4)
Table 10. Alternative scenario: more severe crisis in public financesAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
2011 2012 2013
GDP abroad 1.6 (1.7) 0.4 (1.9) 1.6 (2.3) Inflation abroad 2.5 (2.6) 1.0 (1.8) 0.5 (1.8) Interest rate abroad, per cent 0.7 (1.0) 0.8 (1.6) 1.2 (2.7) CPIF 1.5 (1.6) 1.0 (1.7) 1.1 (2.1) CPI 3.3 (3.1) 1.2 (2.7) 1.1 (2.8) GDP, calendar-adjusted 3.9 (4.4) 1.4 (2.6) 2.9 (2.5) Unemployment, per cent 7.4 (7.4) 7.3 (6.7) 7.2 (6.4) Repo rate, per cent 1.7 (1.8) 1.8 (2.8) 1.9 (3.4)
Table 11. Alternative scenario: more severe crisis in public finances with more expansionary monetary policyAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
2011 2012 2013
GDP abroad 1.6 (1.7) 0.4 (1.9) 1.6 (2.3) Inflation abroad 2.5 (2.6) 1.0 (1.8) 0.5 (1.8) Interest rate abroad, per cent 0.7 (1.0) 0.8 (1.6) 1.2 (2.7) CPIF 1.5 (1.6) 1.3 (1.7) 1.5 (2.1) CPI 3.3 (3.1) 1.1 (2.7) 1.8 (2.8) GDP, calendar-adjusted 3.9 (4.4) 1.9 (2.6) 3.2 (2.5) Unemployment, per cent 7.4 (7.4) 7.1 (6.7) 6.7 (6.4) Repo rate, per cent 1.6 (1.8) 1.1 (2.8) 1.6 (3.4)
Table 12. Alternative scenario: higher interest rateAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
2011 2012 2013
Repo rate, per cent 2.0 (1.8) 3.0 (2.8) 3.4 (3.4) GDP, calendar-adjusted 4.4 (4.4) 2.5 (2.6) 2.5 (2.5) Hours gap, per cent -0.7 (-0.7) -0.1 (0.1) 0.2 (0.4) Unemployment, per cent 7.4 (7.4) 6.8 (6.7) 6.6 (6.4) GDP gap, per cent -0.7 (-0.6) 0.0 (0.2) 0.4 (0.6) CPIF 1.5 (1.6) 1.6 (1.7) 2.0 (2.1) CPI 3.2 (3.1) 2.6 (2.7) 2.6 (2.8)
Table 13. Alternative scenario: lower interest rateAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
2011 2012 2013
Repo rate, per cent 1.7 (1.8) 2.6 (2.8) 3.4 (3.4) GDP, calendar-adjusted 4.5 (4.4) 2.8 (2.6) 2.5 (2.5) Hours gap, per cent -0.7 (-0.7) 0.2 (0.1) 0.5 (0.4) Unemployment, per cent 7.3 (7.4) 6.6 (6.7) 6.3 (6.4) GDP gap, per cent -0.6 (-0.6) 0.5 (0.2) 0.9 (0.6) CPIF 1.6 (1.6) 1.9 (1.7) 2.1 (2.1) CPI 3.1 (3.1) 2.8 (2.7) 2.9 (2.8)
