MySpace, Facebook and MySpace, Facebook and YouTube: YouTube:

21st Century Electronic 21st Century Electronic Democracy in ActionDemocracy in Action

Hiltz Turoff Festschrift Cathy Dwyer

© Dwyer 2007 2

1960: Television Changes Politics

• Radio listeners though Nixon won this debate

• Candidates had to succeed on television in order to get elected

First televised presidential debate

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2008?

• How are candidates, political parties, advocacy groups and voters using the Internet for the 2008 presidential election?

• In one example, voters can submit video questions to YouTube for a Presidential Debate(file) (link)Jackie and Dunlap of Red State Update

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Asynchronous Politics

• Contribution of Network Nation was insight that computing technology provides new opportunities for dialogue

• It documented the move from synchronous communication towards “Conferencing”

• Processes can change in radical ways when opportunities for asynchronous dialogue are available

• 2008 – The Year of Asynchronous Politics

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Television vs. Internet

• Synchronous• Expensive• Centralized – pundits

define “success”

• Candidate must communicate through sound bites

• Meager source of fundraising (net loss of funds)

• Asynchronous• Inexpensive• Decentralized – attention

is “viral”

• Candidates can provide videos of appearances, policy statements and discussion forums

• Half of candidates’ funds come from Internet (net gain of funds)

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Internet campaigning

• Each candidate has an e-campaign director

• Candidates have blogs, web sites, YouTube sites, Facebook sites, and MySpace sites

• Use Eventful• Can target audiences• More informal• More opportunities and forums

to get out their messageRon Paul’s Eventful page

Barak Obama uses LinkedIn to connect to business professionals

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Follow Fred Thompson’s every move with Twitter

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Widgets are everywhere!

Hilary Clinton Duncan Hunter

John McCain

Barak Obama

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MyBarak takes a turn from MySpace

MyBarak takes a turn

from MySpace

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What’s on YouTube?

• Videos can be posted by supporters -- like Obama Girl -- and detractors (file) (link)

• Mashups like the Clinton/Apple Ad make an impact

• Hilary is caught mangling the Star Spangled Banner

• John Edwards cares about his hair (file) (link)

Views: 919,316

Views: 3,881,010

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YouTube Provides Viral Outlet

• Quick distribution that is cheaper than TV• Google trends saw spike of interest in Clinton

after this video spoofing the last Sopranos episode was released (file) (link)

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Internet enables quantitative analysis

• Web analytics can capture impact of events

• TV pundits say McCain and Giuliani “won” 9/5/07 debate

• Viewers’ text messaging poll says Ron Paul won

• Who was right?

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Fred Thompson declares 9/5/07

Ron Paul

Internet traffic on candidate’s web sites, August-September 2007 (data from alexa.com)

Little blip is evident for other candidates (like McCain and

Giuliani)Fox Republican Debate, 9/5/07

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Blog mentions – Sept. 2007Ron Paul

Fred Thompson

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YouTube views

Cumulative for 9/7/07

Ron Paul 3,778,389Romney 2,067,594Giuliani 656,838McCain 559,167

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What will the impact of the Internet be?

• Will the Internet support the long tail of politics, supporting more candidates then the past?

• Edwards has recovered from his hair fiasco

• McCain has recovered from fundraising problems

• But George Allen lost his 2004 election after his “Macaca” speech (file) (link)

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Where to watch:• Google Trends

• techpresident.com

• Hitwise Election 2008 Data Center

• Twitter Election Blogs

• MySpace Election 2008

• techrepublican.com

• And Youtube!

(file) (link)

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Do the numbers add up?

• Bush’s margin of victory in 2004: 3,012,499 votes

• Barak Obama’s friends on Facebook:149,421, friends on MySpace: 178,508, channel views on YouTube: 11,202,339

• Ron Paul’s YouTube channel views: 4,356,406

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McCain’s favorite book is

Hemingway’s For Whom the Bell Tolls

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Signs of Change

• 60 Million in US used Internet to find political information (2006)

• Networked citizenry is showing its force

www.youtube.com/youchoose

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Candidate’s youtube sitesJohn Edwards published his response to

President Bush’s address on Iraq on

YouTube

(125,165 views)