NEPAL’S LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT AGENDA

Our past & future in 10 vignettes

Swarnim Waglé

Member, NPC

Looking to the past

OneIn the long run, Nepal’s growth has essentially been flat

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1775

1785

1795

1805

1815

1825

1835

1845

1855

1865

1875

1885

1895

1905

1915

1925

1935

1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

Nepal USA South Korea Malaysia

India China Japan Argentina

Source: Illustrated by Swarnim Wagle based on Bolt, J . and J . L. van Zanden (2013), New Maddison Project DatabaseNote 1: Y-axis values in per capita Geary-Khamis international $ (1990)

After Prithvi Narayan Shah

Sluggish growth over 200 years

TwoIn the medium run, low level of investment and entrepreneurship

Brazil

Botswana

China

Hong KongIndonesia

India

Japan

Korea, Rep.MaltaMalaysia

Oman

Singapore

Thailand

India

Nepal

10

20

30

40Per

cent of

GD

P

0 10 20 30

Relative income per capita in the 1960s (% of US)

Source: World Development IndicatorsNote 1: Twelve high-growth economies (excluding Taiwan) identified by the Growth Commission contrasted with Nepal & India

1965-1995

Insufficient capital formation

ThreeThe big hurdles: geography and institutions

FourDespite indifferent growth, impressive social progress

FiveYouth bulge, conflict, and the rise of the remittance economy

Looking ahead

SixA second chance for deeper policy reforms and a boost in infrastructure?

SevenWill hydro be a game changer?

Eight‘Zero-carbon’ economy by mid-century on the back ofclean energy, agriculture and tourism?

NineCan India and China be our gateway to global value chains?

TenBut, will we govern better to deliver?[14th Periodic Plan & LDC Graduation; SDGs; Vision 2030]