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NABE OUTLOOK 2004Q1 SURVEY. Presented to Silicon Valley Round Table MARCH 9, 2004 Duncan H. Meldrum NABE President & Chief Economist, Air Products. OUTLOOK SUMMARY. 2004: Strongest Real GDP growth since 1984 2005: Growth recedes to trend Investment accelerates - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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NABE OUTLOOK 2004Q1 SURVEY
Presented to Silicon Valley Round Table
MARCH 9, 2004
Duncan H. Meldrum
NABE President &
Chief Economist, Air Products
OUTLOOK SUMMARY• 2004: Strongest Real GDP growth since 1984
– 2005: Growth recedes to trend
• Investment accelerates• Employment recovers, but slowly
– Held back by productivity gains & high benefit costs– Unemployment rate falls to 5.6%
• No inflation threat– No rise in short rates until 2004Q3– Long rates rise with recovery
• Profits continue to recover– Demand expansion raises top line growth– Strong productivity gains and moderate wage gains lead to lower
unit labor costs in 2004
REAL GDP GROWTHFEB ‘04 FORECAST: STRONGER 2004
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2003 2004 2005
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
SeptemberNovemberFebruary '04
MAIN SOURCES OF GDP STRENGTH
LESS RELIANCE ON POLICY IN 2004
2003 2004
Residential Investment Business Fixed Investment
Government Spending Personal Consumption
Personal Consumption Inventory Investment
REAL GDP GROWTH RATES
2003 2004 2005
REAL GDP 3.1 4.6 3.8
Consumption 3.1 3.8 3.5
Business Fixed Invest. 2.8 9.8 9.0
Residential Investment 7.6 3.5 -2.3
Inventory Change (B00$) -$1.5 $41.5 $48.9
Government 3.4 2.6 1.8
Exports 1.9 10.0 9.9
Imports 3.7 7.3 5.4
2004 OUTLOOK FEB ’04 VS PREVIOUS FORECASTS
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Perc
en
t C
han
ge
SEPT
NOV
FEB '04
2005 OUTLOOK FEB ’04 FORECAST
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Perc
en
t C
han
ge FEB '04
INVENTORY INVESTMENTLARGE SWING FROM 2003 TO 2004
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003 2004 2005
BN
00$
Sept
Nov
Feb '04
0604020098969492
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
ACTUAL TO 2003Q4
INV
ES
TM
EN
T %
CH
VS
YR
AG
O (4
QM
A) IN
VE
ST
ME
NT
%C
H V
S Y
R A
GO
(4QM
A)
U.S. REAL BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENTEXPECTED CAP SPEND NRI (DOTTED) SUPPORTS NABE OUTLOOK
0604020098969492
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
ACTUAL TO 2003Q4
INV
ES
TM
EN
T %
CH
VS
YR
AG
O (4
QM
A)
CA
P S
PE
ND
NR
I (4QM
A)
U.S. REAL BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENTEXPECTED CAP SPEND NRI (DOTTED) SUPPORTS NABE OUTLOOK
0604020098969492
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
ACTUAL TO 2003Q4
INV
ES
TM
EN
T %
CH
VS
YR
AG
O (4
QM
A)
CA
P S
PE
ND
NR
I (4QM
A)
U.S. REAL BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENTEXPECTED CAP SPEND NRI (DOTTED) SUPPORTS NABE OUTLOOK
0604020098969492
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
ACTUAL TO 2003Q4
INV
ES
TM
EN
T %
CH
VS
YR
AG
O (4
QM
A)
CA
P S
PE
ND
NR
I (4QM
A)
U.S. REAL BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENTEXPECTED CAP SPEND NRI (DOTTED) SUPPORTS NABE OUTLOOK
04020098969492
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
60
45
30
15
0
-15
-30
ACTUAL TO 2003Q4
INV
ES
TM
EN
T %
CH
VS
YR
AG
OC
AP
SP
EN
D N
ET
RIS
ING
IND
EX
EQUIPMENT & SOFTWARE INVESTMENTIndustry Survey's New Expected Tech Spending NRI Anticipated Upturn
Equipt & Software Investment ($)Expected Tech Spending in Next 12 Months
JANUARY 2004 (03Q4) NET RISING INDEXES
Total Goods TUC Service Finance
CAPITAL SPENDING 29 16 8 36 41
Expected 45 53 42 47 58
Tech Expected 41 45 42 55 68
INDUSTRY SURVEY SUPPORTSCAPITAL SPENDING OUTLOOK
11 9 7 5 3 111 9 7 5 3 111 9 7 5 3 111 9 7 5 3 111 9 7 5 3 120042003200220012000
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
CALENDAR MONTH
WE
EK
LY
CL
AIM
S (
000)
EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS ENDING ?
Data Through2/28/04
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims4-Week Moving Average
040200989694929088868482
40
20
0
-20
-40
40
20
0
-20
-40
PE
RC
EN
T N
ET
RIS
ING
PE
RC
EN
T N
ET
RIS
ING
EMPLOYMENT NRI VS TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
JANUARY 2004 (03Q4) NET RISING INDEXES Total Goods TUC Services FinanceEMPLOYMENT 1 (10) (17) 3 19 Hiring Plans 4 (5) 0 17 39
NABE NRI - EMPLOYMENT
040200989694929088868482
40
20
0
-20
-40
5
3
2
0
-2
-3
-5
PE
RC
EN
T N
ET
RIS
ING
%C
H V
S Y
R A
GO
EMPLOYMENT NRI VS TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
JANUARY 2004 (03Q4) NET RISING INDEXES Total Goods TUC Services FinanceEMPLOYMENT 1 (10) (17) 3 19 Hiring Plans 4 (5) 0 17 39
EMPLOYEES - ALL ESTABLISHMENTSNABE NRI - EMPLOYMENT
EMPLOYMENT FORECASTSlow Improvement
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2003Q3
Q4 2004Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2005Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
An
nu
al R
ate
060504030201009998979695949392919089
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
ACTUAL THROUGH FEBRUARY 2004
%C
H v
s YR
AG
O -
12
MM
A
EMPLOYMENT GROWS 1.1% IN 2004 AFTER 2003 DECLINELowers Unemployment Rate from 6.0% in 2003 to 5.6% in 2004
Shaded Areas Indicate U.S. Recessions
SIGNIFICANT FACTORS HOLDING BACK PAYROLL HIRING (RANKED)
1 2 3 4 5
Productivity Gains
Health & Benefit Costs
Payroll Data Shortfall
Inadequate Final Demand
Jobs Lost Overseas
Mean Rank
MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR DRIVING PRODUCTIVITY IN U. S.
0
10
20
30
40
StaffReductions
Require MoreFrom
Survivors
NetworkManagement
Improvements
New CapitalEquipment
Other Outsourcingto OffshoreProviders
Per
cen
t o
f P
anel
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SLOWSBut Outlook Stronger in 2004 Than in November
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2003 2004 2005
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
Sept
Nov
Feb '04
COMPENSATION PER HOURMore Modest Gain Now Expected In 2004, Stronger Gain in 2005
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2003 2004 2005
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
Sept
Nov
Feb '04
Unit Labor CostsLarger Decline Now Expected in 2004
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2003 2004 2005
% C
HA
NG
E
Sep
Nov
Feb '04
AFTER TAX CORPORATE PROFITSFaster Growth Than Previous Forecasts
02468
101214161820
2003 2004 2005
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
Sept
Nov
Feb '04
040200989694929088868482
40
20
0
-20
-40
40
20
0
-20
-40
PE
RC
EN
T N
ET
RIS
ING
PE
RC
EN
T NE
T RIS
ING
INDUSTRY SURVEY TOTAL MARGIN NET RISING INDEXSTRONG PROFIT OUTLOOK: JAN '04 BEST READING SINCE 1987
JANUARY 2004 (03Q4) NET RISING INDEXES Total Goods TUC Services FinanceMARGINS 20 44 15 7 20
TOTAL MARGIN NRI
INFLATION IS NOT AN ISSUE
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
INF
LA
TIO
N R
AT
E (
%) CPI
GDP PRICE INDEX
INTEREST RATE OUTLOOKFirst Short Term Increase In 2004Q3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Q12004
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12005
Q2 Q3 Q4
Per
cen
t
3 Mo Tbill
10 Yr Tbond
Federal Deficit ForecastA Little Deeper in FY2004
(With Some Recovery In FY2005)
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
FY 2003 FY 2004 FY2005
Sept
Nov
Feb '04
04020098969492908886848280
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
% O
F G
DP
FEDERAL DEFICIT AS % GDPDeep, But Not As Deep As After Previous Recessions
BLUE BARSFEB '04 NABEFORECAST
History
REAL NET EXPORTS Better Performance Expected
Net Exports of Goods & Services, NIA Basis
-600
-550
-500
-450
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
2003 2004 2005
BN
00$
Sept
Nov
Feb '04
FACTORS BEHIND DOLLAR’S DECLINE VS EURO (&, TO LESSER EXTENT, OTHER CURRENCIES)
1 2 3 4 5
Foreign Investor Views Of $ Assets
Interest Rate Differentials
Unstated "Weak $ Policy"
Stronger Growth Expected Outside US
Friction Between US & Trading Partners
Mean Rank
040200989694929088868482
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
PE
RC
EN
T N
ET
RIS
ING
PE
RC
EN
T N
ET
RIS
ING
GOODS-PRODUCERS DEMAND NRI VS FRB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX
NABE NRI - GOODS DEMAND
040200989694929088868482
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
PE
RC
EN
T N
ET
RIS
ING
CA
GR
GOODS-PRODUCERS DEMAND NRI VS FRB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX
FRB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (RT SCALE)NABE NRI - GOODS DEMAND
0504030201009998979695949392919089
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
ACTUAL THROUGH DECEMBER 2003
%C
H v
s YR
AG
O -
12M
MA
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONSOLID GROWTH ABOVE 5% IN 2004 AND 2005
0402009896949290888684828078767472
90
85
80
75
70
65
ACTUAL THROUGH DECEMBER 2003
PE
RC
EN
TU.S. MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION
RECOVERS TO LEVELS EQUIVALENT TO 91 RECESSION IN 04
FEB 2004NABE OUTLOOK
BLUE BARS
OUTLOOK SUMMARY• 2004: Strongest Real GDP growth since 1984
– 2005: Growth recedes to trend
• Investment accelerates• Employment recovers, but slowly
– Held back by productivity gains & high benefit costs– Unemployment rate falls to 5.6%
• No inflation threat– No rise in short rates until 2004Q3– Long rates rise with recovery
• Profits continue to recover– Demand expansion raises top line growth– Strong productivity gains and moderate wage gains lead to lower
unit labor costs in 2004
JANUARY ’04 INDUSTRY SURVEYJANUARY 2004 (03Q4) NET RISING INDEXES
Total Goods TUC Service FinanceDEMAND 49 81 31 27 56 Exports 52 60 0 38 100INVENTORY (7) (11) 33 (33) 0 Net Too High 0 (11) 33 25 NPRICES 17 14 15 13 20 Expected 30 20 8 40 35 Success Raising 32 38 23 32 33COST MATERIALS 26 22 83 6 44 Expected 34 35 46 31 27Wages 14 10 0 10 32Benefits 11 10 (8) 23 19MARGINS 20 44 15 7 20EMPLOYMENT 1 (10) (17) 3 19 Hiring Plans 14 (5) 0 17 39CAPITAL SPENDING 29 16 8 36 41 Expected 45 53 42 47 58 Tech Expected 41 45 42 55 68No Shortages 81 94 89 77 83
JULY ‘03 INDUSTRY SURVEYJULY 2003 NET RISING INDEXES
Total Goods TUC Service FinanceDEMAND 27 (5) (6) 31 65 Exports 27 13 D 8 DINVENTORY 8 (25) 25 18 25 Net Too High 13 13 25 8 0PRICES 3 (25) 17 11 0 Expected 6 (20) 12 7 14 Success Raising 19 5 28 24 19COSTS 13 11 29 11 (18) Expected 9 (5) 12 5 4Wages 3 (5) 6 0 33Benefits 8 5 0 17 27MARGINS (3) (11) 0 (2) 9EMPLOYMENT (13) (40) (39) (7) 16 Hiring Plans (3) (35) (18) (7) 36CAPITAL SPENDING 3 (5) (6) (2) 29 Expected 27 15 (7) 40 61 Tech Expected 50 50 20 53 78
No Shortages 82 84 85 83 78