Narjess Teyssier - International Civil Aviation Organization · Narjess Teyssier Chief Economic Analysis and Policy Section ICAO Jeddah, December 8, 2012 . ... UNWTO Aviation and

8 December 2012 Page 1

ICAN 2012

Narjess Teyssier Chief Economic Analysis and Policy Section

ICAO Jeddah, December 8, 2012


ICAN 2012: A successful event


ICAN benefits for States

Venue Year

Dubai 2008 UAE

Istanbul 2009

Turkey

Kingston 2010

Jamaica

Mumbai 2011 India

Number of participating States

27 52 38 64

Number of bilateral meetings held

100 200 200 340

Number of Bilateral Agreements signed

at the meeting 20 60 60 120

In 2010 Estimated Cost savings to participating States: Several million USD


ICAO´s Policies and guidance material

4

A37-20

Chicago Convention basis for key policies


Passenger traffic in 2011

(%): 2011/2010 growth

2.7

billio

n Passengers

+5.6%

5.1

trillion

Passenger-km

+6.5%

30

millio

n Departures

+3.6%


Air Cargo in 2011

182billion Freight Tonnes-Kilometer performed

-0.1% YoY

Note: Scheduled services

51million Freight Tonnes carried

+1.4% YoY

6

Air freight in the international trade

By value

$5.3billion


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Past decade traffic growth

Source: ICAO, IATA

Pas

sen

ger

tra

ffic

B

illio

n R

PK

s

2000-2010

+4.4 % p.a.

Non IATA airlines

7%

IATA members 93%

Passenger traffic market share By airline type

Non IATA airlines

21%

IATA members 79%

Passenger traffic market share By airline type


Market Shares* Achieved in 2011

International traffic represents 62% of the total passenger

traffic

International passenger traffic** Domestic passenger traffic**

* Market share of the scheduled traffic of the airlines domiciled in the region **Expressed in Revenue Passenger Kilometer

Europe 39%

Africa 3%

Middle East 12%

Asia and Pacific 27%

North America

15%

Latin America

4% Europe

8%

Africa 1%

Middle East 1%

Asia and Pacific 33%

North America

50%

Latin America

7%


Long-term passenger traffic forecast

Source: ICAO

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Total World RPKs (billions)

Most Likely Low High

History

AAGR for 20 years forecasts

3.6% p.a. 1990-2010: 4.4 %p.a.

4.5%p.a

5.2 % p.a.

2030-2040: 4.3 %p.a.

High GDP scenario = +0.3% for developed countries & +0.6 for the developing countries Low GDP scenario= -0.5 for developed regions & -0.1 for the developing regions.

8 December 2012 Page 10 10

Air travellers represent 51% of international tourist

Air 51% Road

41%

Water 6%

Rail 2%

Inbound travellers by mode of transport

Note: 2010 figures for international tourists Source: UNWTO

Aviation and Tourism: Key figures


Value chain of air transport

STATES (Regulatory framework)

Airlines Airports

ANSPs

Travel agents & GDS

Lessors

Aircraft manufacturers

Ground Handling

Fuel suppliers Seeks services from

MROs


IATS: ICAO Air Transport Symposium 18 – 20 April 2012

TOWARD A SUSTAINABLE AIR TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT

• Main Impediment: “Fragmentation” of markets and regulation

• Strategy: “Seamlessness” while

– Striking a balance between security and facilitation

– Minimizing impact on environment


Theme: “Challenges &

Opportunities for

Liberalization”

Role of ICAO:

“Facilitate, promote

and assist States in

the liberalization

process”

Outcome / Results

From ATConf/5…. to ATConf/6


The nine Freedoms of air APPENDIX C

Nine Freedoms of the Air

Home State

1. Overfly

A

B

2. Technical stop

Home State A B

3. Set down traffic

Home State A B

4. Pick up traffic

Home State A B

5. Carry traffic to/from third State

Home State A B

6. Carry traffic via Home State

A Home State B

7. Operate from second State to/from third State

Home State A B

Home State

Home State

8. Carry traffic between two points in a foreign State

A

9. Operate only in a foreign State

A

Figure 4.1-1. The Nine Freedoms of the Air (Doc 9626, Chapter 4.1)


Top 5 States involved in bilateral Open Skies Agreements (OSAs)*

*Considered as an OSA when there is no restriction on 5th Freedom and above Status as of October 2012

State Number

United States 109

United Arab Emirates 77

Canada 43

Singapore 34

Bahrain 26

Source: Governmental Internet sites


By October 2012, 145 States signed one or more bilateral OSAs

States involved in bilateral OSAs


Toward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines’ mergers and acquisitions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:British_Airways_Logo.svg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Delta_logo.svg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Air_France-KLM.svg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lufthansa_Logo.svg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Continental_Airlines_Logo.svg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Northwest_Airlines_Logo.svg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Swiss_International_Air_Lines_Logo_2011.svg


2012: Alliances regional distribution

Star Alliance: 28%

One world: 29%

Star Alliance: 8%

One world: 2%

Star Alliance: 28%

One world: 34%

Star Alliance: 31%

One world: 33%

Star Alliance: 5%

One world: 1% Skyteam: 28%

Skyteam: 2%

Skyteam: 31%

Skyteam: 1%

Skyteam: 4%

Skyteam: 32%

3 Major alliances grouping : more than 60% of the worldwide scheduled traffic

Most well-known Non Aligned airlines

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ryanair.svg


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1995 1999 2004 2009

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%Number of frequencies

Number of country-pair routes

As a % of international scheduled services

Indicators: Air transport services conducted under liberalized agreements or arrangements

Source : ICAO

Frequencies Country pairs


Facilitating Liberalization

TASA

TASA

TASA

Template Air Services Agreement


World Air Services Agreements (WASA) Web Database

• Original text of over 2500 bilateral agreements

• 90 distinct provisions covered • Summary of the routes

exchanged • A built-in search engine


NEW ICAO STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE

To foster the development of a sound and economically viable air transport system

New SO reflects the needs for ICAO’s leadership in developing and harmonizing the global regulatory framework

Helps focus ICAO’s work to meet the need of Member States and aviation stakeholders

Economic Development of Air Transport


Theme : “Sustainability of Air Transport” Objectives : to develop guidelines and, to develop an action plan for a global regulatory framework. www.icao.int/meetings/atconf6/Pages/default.aspx

18-22 March 2013

ICAO Headquarters, Montreal

Sixth Worldwide Air Transport Conference (ATConf/6)


Pre-Conference Symposium

• One-day symposium: Montréal, 17 March 2013

– Better prepare participants

– Join forces with the major stakeholders organizations such as IATA, ACI, CANSO, TIACA, UNWTO.

– Very high level speakers

– December 2012: Electronic bulletin for invitation including the preliminary symposium agenda


Challenges and issues

• Market access • Air carrier ownership and control

• Consumer protection

• Fair competition and safeguards

• Funding and financing of the air transport system • Taxation of international air transport

Main challenge: Implementation of ICAO policies and guidance


SHUKRAN Thank You,

Merci, Spasiba, Xie Xie, Gracias


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ICAO. No intellectual property rights are

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the disclosure of its content. This

document shall not be reproduced or

disclosed to a third party without prior

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The statements made herein are based on

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expressed in good faith. Where the

supporting grounds for these statements

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Narjess Teyssier - International Civil Aviation Organization · Narjess Teyssier Chief Economic Analysis and Policy Section ICAO Jeddah, December 8, 2012 . ... UNWTO Aviation and