GeorgeHurttNASA-CMSScienceTeamLeaderDepartmentofGeographicalSciencesUniversityofMarylandgchurtt@umd.edu

NASACarbonMonitoringSystemApplicationsWorkshopWelcome

ScienceTeamMeetingNovember16-18,2015Pasadena,CA

http://www.carbon.nasa.gov

CongressionalDirection(Summary)CongressionalDirection in2010:Alsoincludedwithinthefundsprovided forothermissionanddataanalysis,theconferenceagreementprovides$6,000,000forpre-phaseAandpilotinitiativesforthedevelopmentofacarbonmonitoringsystem.Anypilotdevelopedshallreplicatestateandnationalcarbonandbiomassinventoryprocessesthatprovidestatisticalprecisionandaccuracywithgeospatiallyexplicitassociatedattributedataforaggregationattheproject, county, stateandfederallevelusingacommondatasetwithcompletemarkettransparency,includingextractionalgorithmsandcorrelationmodeling.

CongressionalDirection in2011:None

CongressionalDirection in2012:TheCommitteerecommends$10,000,000 fromwithinavailablefundstocontinuethedevelopmentofacarbonmonitoringsysteminitiallyfundedinfiscalyear2010. TheCommitteeexpectsno lessthanone-halfofthisamountshallbeawardedexternally.

Language inSenateDraftfor2013:Ofthefundsprovidedwithintheearthscienceresearchandanalysisactivity,theCommitteerecommends$10,000,000 tocontinueeffortsforthedevelopmentofacarbonmonitoringsysteminitiallyfundedinfiscalyear2010.Themajorityofthefundsshouldbedirected towardsacquisition,fieldsampling,quantificationanddevelopmentofaprototype MonitoringReportingandVerification[MRV]system whichcanprovide transparentdataproductsachievinglevelsofprecisionandaccuracyrequiredbycurrentcarbontradingprotocols.TheCommitteerecognizesthatthecurrentorbitalandsuborbitalplatformsareinsufficienttomeettheseobjectives.Therefore,theuseof commercialoff-the-shelftechnologiesisrecommendedastheseproductscouldprovide robustcalibrationvalidationdatasetsforfutureNASAmissions.Upto20percentofthesefundsshouldbemadeavailabletointernationalReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradation [REDD]projects.Furthermore,theCommitteeisdeeplydisappointedwiththelackofprogressthatNASAhasmadeonthisinitiativethus farwithintheagency.Therefore,itdirectsthattheabove fundsshallbecompetitivelyawardedwithin120daysofenactmentofthisact.

CongressionalDirection in2014:CarbonMonitoring- OfthefundsprovidedwithintheEarthScienceresearchandanalysisactivity,theCommitteerecommends$10,000,000 tocontinueeffortsforthedevelopmentofacarbonmonitoringsystem.Themajorityofthefundsshouldbedirectedtowardacquisition,fieldsampling,quantification,anddevelopmentofaprototypeMonitoringReportingandVerification[MRV]systemwhichcanprovide transparentdataproductsachievinglevelsofprecisionandaccuracy requiredbycurrentcarbon tradingprotocols.TheCommitteeisconcerned thatNASAhasnotestablishedaprogramofrecordaroundthedevelopmentofMRVsystem,andthereforeexpectsaplanfromNASAnotlaterthan90daysafterenactmentofthisactincorporatingsuchasystemintoitsoperatingplanandlong-termbudgetprojection.TheCommitteerecognizesthatthecurrentorbitalandsuborbitalplatformsareinsufficienttomeettheseobjectives.Therefore,theuseof commercialoff-the-shelftechnologiesisrecommendedastheseproductscouldprovide robustcalibrationvalidationdatasetsforfutureNASAmissions.•

…”pilotinitiativesforthedevelopmentofacarbonmonitoringsystem…”...”replicatestateandnationalcarbonandbiomassinventoryprocessesthatprovidestatisticalprecisionandaccuracywithgeospatiallyexplicitassociatedattributedata…”…”developmentofaprototypeMonitoringReportingandVerification(MRV)systemwhichcanprovidetransparentdataproductsachievinglevelsofprecisionandaccuracyrequiredbycurrentcarbontradingprotocols….”...”[developmentof]aplan…incorporatingsucha[MRV]systemintoitsoperatingplanandlong-termbudgetprojection…”

NASA-CMSPhase1

BiomassPilot.ThegoalsoftheBiomassPilotareto:Ø Utilizesatelliteandinsitudatatoproducequantitativeestimates(anduncertainties)ofabovegroundterrestrialvegetationbiomassonanationalandlocalscale.Ø Assesstheabilityoftheseresultstomeetthenationsneedformonitoringcarbonstorage/sequestration.

FluxPilot.TheobjectivesoftheFluxPilotareto:Ø Combinesatellitedatawithmodeledatmospherictransport initiatedbyobservationally-constrainedterrestrialandoceanicmodelstotietheatmosphericobservationstosurfaceexchangeprocesses.Ø Estimatetheatmosphere-biosphereCO2 exchange.

ScopingEfforts.TheobjectivesoftheScopingEffortsareto:Ø Identifyresearch,products,andanalysissystemevolutionsrequiredtosupportcarbonpolicyandmanagementasglobalobservingcapabilityincreases.

CMS Award year: # of projects (decision support - MRV)2012: 202013: 172014: 15

Global Surface-Atmosphere Flux2012: 22014: 3 (2)

Ocean-Atmosphere Flux2012: 1

Ocean Biomass2012: 3

Land-Ocean Flux2012: 12014: 1 (1)

Land-Atmosphere Flux2012: 6 (5)2013: 8 (6)2014: 2 (2)

Land Biomass2012: 7 (5)2013: 9 (9)2014: 9 (7)

NASA-CMSPhase2

ORGTYPE(# unique) US MX Brazil UK TotalUniversity(35) 60 3 1 1 65

NationalAgencies/Labs(8) 62 1 63State(1) 3 3Private(12) 14 14Research Center(2) 6 1 7NGO(4) 4 1 5Total 149 5 2 1 157

#ParticipantsByTypeandByCountry

Federal State NGO Private

NASA CAAirResourcesBoard GlobalForestWatch AER,Inc

NOAA ResourcesfortheFuture

AppliedGeosolutions

USDAFS USResearch Winrock Intl. EarthNetworks

DOE Woods HoleResearchCenter

Geodigital IntlCorp.

USGS RHG

EPA Neptune, Inc.

Dept.ofState SigmaSpaceCorp.

WatershedSciencesInc.

I 4Consultants

U.S.AgenciesandOrganizations

Prior (CASA/GFED) Posterior Posterior minus Prior

GEOS-5 meteorological

analyses

Anthropogenic emissions

Atmospheric Inversions

Terrestrial Biosphere, including

disturbance

Ocean Circulation and

Biology

Transport Modeling

NASA Observations

Ø140uniquepublications(papers,bookchapters)Ø7publicationsinNature,ScienceandPNASincludingtwocurrentlyontheNACPCitationsClassicslistwithover100citations

• Baccini,A.,S.J.Goetz,W.S.Walker,N.T.Laporte,M.Sun,D.Sulla-Menashe, J.Hackler,P.S.A.Beck,R.Dubayah,M.A.Friedl, S.Samanta,andR.A.Houghton.2012.Estimatedcarbondioxideemissions fromtropicaldeforestationimprovedbycarbon-densitymaps.NatureClimateChange (Houghton-02)NACPCitationClassicwith191Citations

• Cai,W.-J.,X.Hu,W.-J.Huang,M.C.Murrell,J.C.Lehrter,S.E.Lohrenz,W.-C.Chou,W.Zhai,J.T.Hollibaugh, Y.Wang,P.Zhao,X.Guo,K.Gundersen,M.DaiandG.-C.Gong(2011).'Acidificationofsubsurfacecoastalwatersenhancedbyeutrophication.'NatureGeosci (Lohrenz-03)116citations(tobeaddedtoNACPclassics)

• Erb,K.-H.,T.Kastner,S.Luyssaert,R.A.Houghton,T.Kuemmerle,P.Olofsson, andH.Haberl.2013.Biasintheattributionofforestcarbonsinks.NatureClimateChange(Houghton-02)commentary

• Gately,C.K.,L.R.Hutyra,andI.S.Wing,2015:Cities,traffic,andCO2:Amultidecadal assessment oftrends,drivers, andscalingrelationships. Proceed.NationalAcademySci. (Nehrkorn-01)

• McKain,K.,A.Down,S.M.Raciti,J.Budney,L.R.Hutyra,C.Floerchinger,S.C.Herndon, T.Nehrkorn,M.Zahniser,R.B.Jackson,N.Phillips, andS.C.Wofsy, 2015:Methaneemissions fromnaturalgasinfrastructureanduseintheurbanregionofBoston,Massachusetts.Proceed.NationalAcademySci. (Nehrkorn-01

• Pan,Y.,R.A.Birdsey, J.Fang,R.Houghton, P.E.Kauppi,W.A.Kurz,O.L.Phillips, A.Shvidenko, S.L.Lewis,J.G.Canadell, P.Ciais, R.B.Jackson, S.W.Pacala,A.D.McGuire,S.Piao,A.Rautiainen,S.Sitch,andD.Hayes.2011.Alargeandpersistentcarbonsinkintheworld’s forests.Science (Houghton-02)NACPCitationClassicwith766citations

• Zeng,N.,F.Zhao,G.J.Collatz,E.Kalnay,R.J.Salawitch,T.O.WestandL.Guanter.2014.AgriculturalGreenRevolution asadriverofincreasingatmospheric CO2seasonal amplitude.Nature (West-03)

NASA Application Readiness Levels (ARLs)

ARLs describe where the CMS product is currently in terms of readiness, as well as the desired and potential level as defined by the CMS Product Scientist.

The ARLs were provided by the CMS Product Scientist and represent the most accurate representation of the state of each product.

Products can start at any level. It is not expected they will start at ARL1 and end at ARL9.

ARL-1 ARL-2 ARL-3 ARL-4 ARL-5 ARL-6 ARL-7 ARL-9 ARLsApproved, Operational Deployment, & Use in

Decision Making

Application Completed and Qualified

Application of Prototype in Partner's Operational Decision

Making

Demonstration in Relevant Environment

Validation in Relevant Environment

Initial I&V in Laboratory Environment

Proof of Applications Concept

Applications Concept

Basic Research

Andrews-03

Baker-01

Bowman-02Ganguly-01Greenberg-01

Hudak-01

Hurtt-03

Jacob-02

Lohrenz-05

Morton-01

Windham-Myers-01

Fatoyinbo-01

Ott-01

Walker-W-01

Williams-C-01

SY 2014 Projects

Different ARLs are provided for the products in these projects. Refer to individual corresponding charts describing the product ARLs.

ARL-8

Solid color: each solid bar is indicative of where the PI feels their project is NOW in terms of application readiness.Pattern fill: indicates the level each PI is striving for and the application readiness level they feel their project can ultimately satisfy. Gradient fill: indicates current level has not been reached fully.

Project IDPI-Project # (Andrews-02)-Each CMS Project is represented by its color and identified by the PI on the project

CMSApplicationReadinessLevels(ARLs)

CMSProductsandPolicySupportExamplesCMSPIandProject

Organization PolicyofInterest

Cook-01Forestbiomass

USDAForestService USFSForestInventoryandAnalysis(FIA),SilvaCarbon,USDAForestServiceExperimentalForests&Rangessystem

Dubayah-03Canopyheightandforest/non-forestmaps-ForMaryland

Dubayah-04Canopyheightandforest/non-forestmapsforSonomaCounty

MarylandDepartmentofNaturalResourcesand

SonomaCountyCA

(03):FIA,FederalLandPolicyandManagementAct(FLPMA),MarylandGreenhouseGasEmissionsReductionActPlan,MarylandClimateActionPlan,ChesapeakeBayTMDL,MarylandForestPreservationAct,MarylandNoNetForestLossAct.(04):REDD+,SonomaCountyinitiatives,CaliforniaAssemblyBill32:GlobalWarmingSolutionsAct(CA-AB32),CAP

Duren-01-Applications

Escobar-01-Applications

IPCC,Doha/Kyoto,NGHGI,CAA,US-IndiaGreenPartnership

EPA, MD,DEandPADNRs,Chesapeake RestorationProgram,

RGGI,EPA,SonomaCountyAgricultureConservation

Low-resolutionMRVtechnology for SafeDrinkingWaterAct'sUndergroundInjectionControlprogram

Workshops andReportingforMDGHGplanning,SonomaCountyAB32,EPAGHGInventoryReports,USGS3DEPProgram

Jacob-01,Jacob 02,Estimatesofmethaneemissionfluxes andAnthropogenicandnaturalmethaneemissionsestimates

EPAGlobalClimateChangeandCleanAirInitiativeoftheUSStateDepartment,GlobalMethaneInitiativeoftheUSEPA,CAA,NGHGI,PresidentObama'sClimateActionPlan(CAP),NALS

CMSProductsandPolicySupport,ExamplesCon’tCMSPIandProject Organization PolicyofInterest

Fatoyinbo-01Mangroveforestbiomassestimates

Brazil REDD+,LeGabonEmergent,GabonForestCarbonAssessment,Silvacarbon,GEO-FCT

French-04Mapsofemissionsfromwildlandfires

USForestry Wildland FireEmissionsInformationSystem(WFEIS),GlobalFireData(GFED),BlueSky,CAA,NGHGI,FLPMA

Keller-01Mapsofspatiallyexplicitassociateduncertaintiesinstockchanges

BrazilLandManagement US-BrazilMemorandumofUnderstandingonClimateChange,BrazilianForestCode,REDD+,NFMS,SilvaCarbon,SustainableLandscapesProgramBrazil

Morton-01 andMorton-02Mapsofannualdeforestation,forestdegradation,Mapsofcarbonstockswithpixelleveluncertainties

BrazilREDD+,SilvaCarbon,ScienceWithoutBorders,GlobalCarbonProject,GFED

FIA,FLPMA

Saatchi-02Disturbancelayers(timesincedisturbance,recoveryrate,disturbanceseverity)

USForestry NGHGI,CAP,IPCCGoodPracticeGuidanceforLand,Use,Land-UseChange,andForestry(IPCCGPG),FIA,NFMS

West-03Carbonrelease bylivestock andhumans

EPA IPCCGPG,NASAFPP,NASACarnegieAmesStanfordApproach(CASA)model,DOEIntegratedAssessment program,USFarmBill,CAP

NASA’sApproachtoCM/MRV• Recognizesthatasustained,observationally-drivencarbonmonitoringsystemusingremotesensingdatahasthepotentialtosignificantlyimprovetherelevantinformationbasefortheU.S.andworld;

• Recognizesmultipleusers,multiplescales,multiplequantities,andmultipleframeworksforMRV(e.g.International,nationalandsubnational,markets);

• Regonizes theimportanceofuserengagementtoberesponsivetostakeholderneeds;ThegoalforNASA’sCMSprojectistoprototypethe

developmentofcarbonmonitoringcapabilitiesneededtosupportU.S.needsforMRV.

*NASA-CMS(2014)ProgressReport

ApplicationsWorkshopSummary(2014)• ExcellentinteractionandinputfromstakeholdersworkingwithNASA-CMS

projects,acrossarangeofspatial/policyscales(subnational,national,international,andocean).

• StakeholdersverypleasedandencouragedbyCMSactivities,emergingcapabilities,andfuturepotential

• CMSshouldnotjustaboutdataproducts,butalsoaboutaddressingpolicyrelevantsciencequestions

• Importanceofbaseline,monitoring,andprojection/prediction,andattribution

• Importanceofuncertaintyquantification,“accuracywillingtopayfor”• Importanceofstateofartcapability,leadershipinCMScapabilities• Inputistimely,withveryaggressivepolicytimelines

nationally/internationally• Needtogetaheadinunderstandingfuturepolicyneedsandfuture

capabilities• DataDelivery?Don’t,makedataavailableinstd GISformat.

KeyQuestionsTodayandBeyond• HowcanwecontinuetobuildandimproveinstakeholderengagementandrelevanceofCMSscience?

• WhatarestakeholderneedsforCM/MRV,andtowhatextentaretheybeingmet?

• Whataretheemerginglessonsofsuccess,andfailure,inworkingstakeholdersandwhatareproposedsolutions?

• Whatarethenextprioritytopics,timelines,andopportunitiesforCMS?