National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) Advisory on ... · Early Warning Unit, ADRM 3 Gauteng Normal rainfall was received over the majority of the province. The field and hydroponic

Early Warning Unit, ADRM 1

National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) Advisory on the 2010 Winter Season

Statement from the Agricultural Disaster Risk Management 08DAFF

23 April 2010

In the light of the seasonal outlook as produced by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and other centres, the following advisory guidelines are suggested. It is emphasized that these advisories are broad guidelines and should be interpreted considering the local aspects of the region such as soil types, cultural preferences and farming systems. Depending on the particular region, the prioritization of the guidelines will differ. The basic strategy to follow would be to minimize and diversify risk, optimize soil water availability and to manage the renewable resources (rain water and grazing) to uphold sound farming objectives. Long-term mitigation strategies should be considered by implementing techniques to enhance in-field water harvesting by reducing run-off and improving infiltration. Reduced tillage methods are very important in this regard, as is basin tillage, to capture rainwater in the drier areas. The provinces should further simplify, downscale and package the information according to their language preference and if possible use local radio stations and farmers’ days in disseminating the information.

I. CURRENT CONDITIONS

Figure 1 Figure 2

Figure 3 Figure 4


Normal rainfall was experienced in February (Figure 1) extending into the winter rainfall areas whereas below normal was received over most of Limpopo, northern Mpumalanga and parts of KwaZulu-Natal. The normal rainfall continued over much of the summer rainfall areas during March (Figure 2). The first 10 days of April (Figure 3) received above normal rainfall for the central and eastern parts of the country but below normal for the western half. In general normal to above normal rainfall was received for the season July 2009 - March 2010 (Figure 4) with below normal patches over western Limpopo, eastern Free State, western Northern Cape and parts of the Eastern Cape. NDVI difference map for March 2010 compared long-term mean

Vegetation conditions were normal throughout most of the country. However, lower vegetation activity can be seen in the southern and Eastern Cape.

II. CONDITIONS IN THE PROVINCES DURING MARCH 2010

Eastern Cape Normal rainfall was received for the majority of the province. Crops are reasonable to poor in Cacadu due to insufficient rainfall but reasonable to good in Amatole and OR Tambo district municipalities. Aphids have been reported on cabbage and rust on spinach in parts of Amatole. In other areas of OR Tambo there are concerns of blight in potatoes and tomatoes but this is being attended to. The other concern is mould which is attacking tuber crops. The veld and livestock are in reasonable condition but poor in most of Cacadu. Currently the level of dams is the same as during the previous year at the same time which was at 65%. Free State Normal rainfall was received with patches of above-normal in the east, north and southwest. NDVI images reflect very high values of vegetation for the period. The level of dams (Rustfontein – 34 % and Tierpoort – 17 %) in the central and south-western parts of the province is still at levels of concern. The level of dams overall is similar to the previous year during the same period (97% in 2010; 95% in 2009).


Gauteng Normal rainfall was received over the majority of the province. The field and hydroponic farmers are concluding their harvesting, however the rain especially in the east and Westrand is posing a delay in harvesting maize crop. Winter crop farmers have planted. The veld is in reasonable condition while livestock is in good condition. Cattle mortalities were reported in the Randfontein region due to Black Quarter. Major concerns include poor road conditions hampering access to markets by farmers but relevant assistance has been sought. The level of dams remains similar to the previous year during the same period (102% in 2010; 101% in 2009). KwaZulu-Natal The province received normal rainfall but lower than normal in the southern-central parts stretching from Durban to the border with Lesotho and the Free State. The good rains have benefited all crops. Farmers are harvesting the soya crops and are expecting average to better than average yields. Livestock and the veld are in fair condition. Although there have been no reports of Rift Valley Fever, farmers have been advised to purchase vaccines to be prepared in case it spreads to the province. Severe storms struck parts of the interior of the province. In the Bulwer area there were reports of limited damage to home gardens of emerging farmers and the damage was predominantly on maize crops. 13 dams are at a similar level as compared to the March 2009 level, 3 dams are significantly higher (>5% above) and 1 is significantly lower (<5% lower). Overall the level of dams is similar to the previous year during the same period (87% in 2010; 88% in 2009). Limpopo Normal rainfall conditions were experienced in the Lowveld region, Thulamela municipality, and the Sekhukhune district municipality but below normal in the western bushveld region. Dry land farmers are haversting their crops and others are preparing land for winter crop production. Veld conditions are good over the majority of both Mopani and Vhembe District municipalities except in Musina and Maruleng where they are poor to fair. Livestock is in good condition. The Middle Letaba dam is still very low (7, 7%) and overall the level of dams as compared to the previous year during the same period has increased (85% in 2010; 80% in 2009). Mpumalanga NIL REPORT. Northern Cape Normal rainfall was received in the south and eastern parts but below normal elsewhere. Good yields from grapes were reported although some were damaged by rain and hail. Cotton, maize and wheat yields were also reduced due to rain water. Veld and livestock are in reasonable to good condition. Rift Valley fever was reported in parts of Pixley KaSeme and sheep mortality in John Taolo Gaetsewe as a result of pasturellosis. The level of dams has slightly increased as compared to the previous year during the same period (100% in 2010; 97% in 2009). North West Normal rainfall was received except over the extreme eastern and western parts where it was below normal. Farmers are less active due to unpredictable weather. The livestock and veld conditions have shown improvement due to rainfall received and the provision of protein licks by the department. The level of dams is slightly lower as compared to the previous year during the same period (78% in 2010; 82% in 2009).


Western Cape The province experienced below normal rainfall in the west but normal to above normal in the east excluding Heidelberg and Oudtshoorn which received below normal rainfall. The temporal and spatial distribution of the rain especially in the Eden District Municipality was poor, thus decreasing the efficiency of rains in these areas and did not alleviate the accumulated drought conditions. Veld conditions remained poor in the Eden District but reasonable over most of the Central Karoo where livestock is in good condition. Outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever were reported in areas that received high rainfall. A large scale immunisation project was conducted to provide a buffer that would prevent the disease from spreading further. Devastating veld fires were reported in the Langkloof region and the Melkhoutfontein areas. The level of dams is similar to the previous year during the same period (56% in 2010; 57% in 2009). Information on level of dams is obtained from the Department of Water Affairs Available: http://www.dwa.gov.za/Hydrology/applets/weekly/WeekIndex.html Accessed on 2010/04/14

III. AGRICULTURAL MARKETS

Major grain commodities According to FNB Agri-weekly, domestic yellow maize and white maize prices declined further on the back of a strong rand. Wheat prices rebounded and prices are expected to follow the upward trend. Sunflower prices are higher despite a stronger rand while soybean traded lower. Domestic prices per Safex (R/t)

Futures prices (2010/04/20)

Commodity 2010/04 2010/05 2010/07 2010/09 2010/12

White maize R1100.00/t R1119.00/t R1120.00/t R1152.00/t R1202.00/t

Yellow maize R1160.00/t R1176.00/t R1189.00/t R1222.00/t R1270.00/t

Wheat R2178.00/t R2184.00/t R2203.00/t R2228.00/t R2248.00/t

Sunflower R3289.00/t R3305.00/t R3350.00/t R3410.00/t R3500.00/t

Soybeans R2530.00/t R2547.00/t R2598.00/t R2638.00/t R2700.00/t

Sagis weekly bulletin 20/04/10 Livestock domestic markets According to FNB Agri-weekly, it is expected that beef prices will remain firm in the short term. Lamb and mutton prices are expected to move sideways in the short term but will strengthen over time due to declining suppliers. Bacon and pork prices are lower due to lack of demand but prices are expected to improve. Broiler market the demand is high and steady placing pressure on IQF.

Producer prices for selected livestock commodities

Beef

Mutton

Pork

Poultry

Open market: Class A / Porker / Fresh whole birds (R/kg)

25.99 34.47 16.04 19.55

Open market: Class C / Baconer / Frozen whole birds (R/kg)

19.04 24.52 15.20 13.67

Contract: A2/A3* / Baconer/ IQF (*includes fifth 25.04 33.89 15.15 12.69


quarter) (R/kg) Import parity price (R/kg) 14.25 18.25 15.49 9.81 Weaner Calves / Feeder Lambs (R/kg) 14.84 15.57

FNB Agri-weekly: 09/04/10 NB: Users are advised that these are just indicative prices therefore it is imperative that clients investigate their own individual basis value when marketing their products (livestock and grain) IV. SADC REGION

A food security update by FEWS NET dated March 2010 reported that most parts of the region remain generally food secure even as the hunger season reaches its peak. The green harvest and targeted food distribution programs are helping to ameliorate food insecurity conditions in areas facing critical food shortages due to poor harvests during the last agricultural production season. For most parts, conditions over the outlook period to June 2010 are expected to remain satisfactory on the back of the current projections for generally favourable harvest prospects. The dry spell extending from December 2009 to mid‐ January 2010, ended in the last dekad of

January when significant rains were received across the region bringing the much needed moisture relief to the wilting crops. However, the impact of these rains on crop production is varied ranging from no effect in areas where permanent wilting had occurred to positive impact on the late and replanted crops still at vegetative stages. Rapid assessments in affected areas indicate negative food security impacts on a large number of households.

Preliminary crop production forecasts in South Africa point to yet another bumper harvest, potentially even better than that of last year. Prospects in the other main maize‐producing

countries (Malawi, Zambia, Tanzania, and Mozambique) at this stage remain mediocre due to erratic rainfall performance where both dry spells and excessive rains have been a key feature. Significant tracts of land under summer crops have been adversely affected either through moisture stress or through water logging and soil nutrient leaching, leading to yield reduction and, in some cases, complete crop failure. Summary of the reports Normal rainfall was received during the month of March and the vegetation conditions were normal throughout much of the country. Livestock is in reasonable condition but poor in parts of the Eastern Cape. Rift Valley Fever was reported in the Western and Northern Cape provinces. Livestock mortalities due to various diseases were reported in the Northern Cape and Gauteng. Veld fires were also experienced in the Western Cape. The level of dams in the majority of the provinces is similar to the March 2009 levels. Over SADC, most parts of the region remain generally food secure even as the hunger season reaches its peak.


V. MONTHLY CLIMATE OUTLOOK Extended-Range Forecast for the Period: 28 April – 17 May 2010 Figure 1-Rainfall Figure 2- Minimum Temperatures

Figure 3- Maximum Temperatures

Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall totals forecasted for greater parts of the country. Enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall totals expected for the Western Cape. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal minimum temperatures to occur are forecast for South Africa. Enhanced probabilities for above-normal minimum temperatures expected for the Western Cape coastline. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal maximum temperatures to occur are forecast for South Africa. Enhanced probabilities for above-normal maximum temperatures expected for the Western Cape coastline.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast: May to September 2010 Figure 1- Rainfall Figure 2- Minimum temperatures


Figure 3- Maximum temperatures


How to interpret the forecast maps:

• There are three sets of forecast maps: the rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures.

• Each set consists of maps showing the probabilities for above-normal (left panels) and below normal (right panels) conditions to occur.

• For each forecast map a probability percentage is given on a scale of 0-50% and above (the colour bars on the right hand side of each map) for the rainfall or temperatures for the season, i.e. MAY-JUNE-JULY 2010.

• The forecast probabilities indicate the direction of the forecast as well as the amount of confidence in the forecast.

For further clarification using MAY-JUNE-JULY 2010 rainfall (Figure 1) as an example: the Northern Cape Province for the above normal category is shaded mainly in green (33-40%) over the winter rainfall areas and for the central and east it is in white (<33%); for the below normal category it is shaded mainly in light orange (40-45%) over the winter rainfall areas and a darker orange in the central and east (45-50%). Comparing the two:- - above normal: west 33-40% ; central and east <33% while

- below normal: west 40-45%; central and east 45-50%

This then suggests a higher probability for below normal rainfall for the MAY-JUNE-JULY 2010 period over the Northern Cape Province. Seasonal Forecast Overview for SOUTH AFRICA 1. ENSO Forecast (April to October 2010) ENSO conditions have been shown to be the single most determining factor in South African summer rainfall which can also be effectively forecasted. Other local ocean basins such as those from the Atlantic and Indian oceans have also shown to have very strong influences to South African rainfall, but remain very difficult to forecast for various reasons. Because of this fact, we look at ENSO forecasts to give an indication of whether the seasons ahead would be abnormally wet (La Nina) or dry (El Nino). Below are some forecasts from international centers: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s3/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTSea.gif http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html Forecasts indicate that ENSO is returning to the neutral phase and is expected to continue the cooling trend for the forecast period with enhanced chances of a La Nina to occur. 2. Rainfall Forecast (May to September 2010) May-June-July Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall totals to occur are forecast over most of the country.


June-July-August Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall totals are forecasted for the northern parts of Limpopo. Enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall totals are forecasted for the northern parts of the Northern Cape. July-August-September Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall totals to occur are forecast over parts of the Northern Cape, Mpumalanga, Gauteng and Limpopo. 3. Minimum Temperature Forecast (May to September 2010) May-June-July Enhanced probabilities of above-normal minimum temperatures expected for parts of the Northern Cape, Western Cape and Eastern Cape. Enhanced probabilities of below-normal minimum temperatures expected for the northeastern half of the country. June-July-August Enhanced probabilities of above-normal minimum temperatures expected for southwestern half of the country. Enhanced probabilities of below-normal minimum temperatures expected for northeastern half of the country. July-August-September Enhanced probabilities for above-normal minimum temperatures expected for most of the country. 4. Maximum Temperature Forecast (May to September 2010) May-June-July Enhanced probabilities of above-normal maximum temperatures expected for the entire country. June-July-August Enhanced probabilities of above-normal maximum temperatures expected for northeastern half of the country. Enhanced probabilities of below-normal maximum temperatures expected for parts of the Northern and Western Cape. July-August-September Enhanced probabilities for above-normal maximum temperatures expected for most of the country. Summary Copious amounts of rainfall were received during the first half of April for the central and eastern half of the country. However a decrease in rainfall is anticipated for the next two weeks (28 April- 17 May) except for the southwestern Cape where above normal rainfall is forecasted. Temperatures are expected to be below normal for the said time period but above normal for the southwestern Cape coast. The winter season is chiefly expected to receive below normal rainfall, while temperatures are expected to be above normal except in the southwest and the northeastern provinces where they are expected to be below normal. With the above forecast in mind the following strategies are suggested:


VI. SUGGESTED STRATEGIES: A. Irrigation farming

• Remove all weeds containing seeds, but keep other vegetative rests on the land because that will reduce evaporation.

• Check and repair all tools and machinery.

• Irrigate during cool conditions to avoid evapotranspiration.

• Adhere to the water restrictions when issued as some of the dams are critically low.

B. Domestic and home garden water use

• Conserve existing water supplies

• Eradicate water weeds

• Limit water waste and losses

• Repair leaking pipes

• Re-use water and retain high quality

• Harvest water during rainy days.

C. Stock farming

• Provide lots of drinking points

• Provide phosphorous licks freely

• If grazing is in danger, herd animals into pens where different animals can be segregated and fed separately

• Decide in advance when to switch the animals to different levels of feeding

• Sell mature livestock as soon as they reach marketable condition

• Treat the rangeland as a valuable asset

• Build fodder reserves in years of good rainfall

• Plant reserve patches of drought –resistant fodder crops

• Accelerate rotational grazing during drought

• Disposal of livestock

• Good quality breeding ewes last

• Cows -Mature oxen, dry cows first

• Retain nucleus of best cows aged 4 to 6 years

• Diseases- Local veterinary services, relevant vaccinations and change of grazing after first rain

D. Grazing

• Determine the carrying capacity of different plant associations.

• Calculate the stocking rate of each, and then decide the best ratios of large and small animals, and of grazers and browsers.

• Do not overstock at any time.

• If the onset of the rainfall season is late, consider sowing quick-growing fodder crops such as teff, babala or millet for extra feed in dry times.

• Eradicate invader plants.

• Periodically reassess the grazing and feed available for the next few months, and start planning in advance.

• Spread water points evenly

• Cut forage early to stimulate re-growth


• Provide suitable licks to make coarse, dry range grasses more palatable E. Veld fires (very important)

The provinces are advised to ensure that the firebreaks are in place especially in the summer rainfall areas. An owner of the land who is obliged to prepare and maintain a firebreak must ensure that, with due regard to the weather, climate, terrain and vegetation of the area, the following is taken care of in terms of installing the firebreaks (chapter 4 of National Veld and Forest Fire Act No. 101 of 1998):

• It has to be wide enough and long enough to have a reasonable chance of preventing a veld fire from spreading to or from neighboring land

• It does not cause soil erosion and

• It is reasonably free of inflammable material capable of carrying a veld fire across it.

• Firebreaks may be temporary or permanent

• Firebreaks should consist of fire-resistant vegetation, inflammable materials, bare ground or a combination of these

• Firebreaks must be of sufficient width and length to contain the expected fire

• Firebreaks must be located to minimize risk to the resources being protected

• Erosion control measures must be installed at the fire break

• Veld fires may ruin pastures, destock your camps if most of the pasture is ruined and keep a numbers of livestock that could be maintained by buying feeds.

F. Cold spells (snowfall & Frost) (Very important) When temperatures plunge below zero, livestock and crops need to be given extra attention. Prevention is the key in dealing with hypothermia, and other cold weather injuries in livestock and crops. Following are a number of concerns and recommendations:

• Hypothermia and dehydration are a serious concern in animals during cold and wet conditions. Wind-chill also add greatly to the cold-stress for animals.

• Livestock should be provided with wind-break, roof shelter and monitored for signs of discomfort (extensive shivering, weakness, lethargy, etc.)

• It is very important that livestock be provided with extra hay/forage/feed to double the calories for normal body heat maintenance during extremely cold conditions.

• It is critical that livestock have access to drinking water. Usual water sources may freeze in low temperatures and dehydration becomes a life-threatening factor. In general, livestock tend to drink less water in extreme cold conditions.

• Special attention should be paid to very young and old animals because they may be less able to tolerate temperature extremes.

• Do not shear Angora goat. Also, take extra time to observe livestock, looking for early sign of diseases and injuries.

• Severe cold-weather injuries or death primarily occur in the very young or in animals that are already debilitated.

• Cases of cold weather-related sudden death in calves often result when cattle are suffering from undetected infection, particularly pneumonia.

• Livestock suffering from frostbite don’t exhibit pain. It may be up to two weeks before the injury becomes evident as freeze-damaged tissue starts to slough away. At that point, the injury should be treated as an open wound and a veterinarian should be consulted.


• Cold weather can cause all types of problems for plants in South Africa. Freezing temperatures can damage plants by rupturing plant cells as ice crystals form and rapid changes in temperatures occur.

• Frost damage in crops can also be combated through mulching, irrigation, heating, wind and planting date.

Under current conditions soil moisture is high in most summer rainfall areas. As the forecast favors below normal rainfall with above normal maximum temperatures over most of the country, farmers are advised to continue to consider soil moisture conservation strategies. Although conditions remain favourable for irrigation farmers as dam levels remain high in most areas, water has to be conserved continually and farmers must always adhere to water restrictions and also observe the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act, (Act 43 of 1983) which provides among other factors prevention of the weakening or destruction of the water sources. Measures should be in place for veldfires especially in the summer rainfall areas as winter approaches. Localized flooding may become possible over the southwestern Cape with the increase in cold front activity in winter. Therefore appropriate measures to mitigate these should be implemented. Precautionary measures should also be in place for pests and diseases and regularly scout for these. Contingency plans for early frost should be in place as below normal minimum temperatures are anticipated in the short term. The users are urged to continuously monitor, evaluate, report and attend to current Agricultural Risk and Disaster issues. Assistance will only be entertained if risk measures are practiced and good veld management maintained.

Always implement risk measures and practice good veld management. Furthermore the advisory should be disseminated widely. Users are advised to be on the look-out and act on the extreme daily warnings as well as the advisory update next month. Information sharing groups are encouraged especially among farming communities for sustainable development.

The Disaster Management Act (Act No. 57 of 2002) urges Provinces, individuals and farmers, to assess and prevent or reduce the risk of disasters using early warning information.

The current advisory can be accessed from the following websites: www.daff.gov.za and www.agis.agric.za. For more information contact: -


DAFF, Directorate: Agricultural Disaster Management Private Bag X250 Pretoria 0001 Tel:012 319 7955/56; Fax: 012 319 6711 Email: [email protected]

SAWS: Private Bag X097 Pretoria 0001 Tel: +27 (0) 12 367 6000 Fax: +27 (0) 12 367 6200 http://www.weathersa.co.za

ARC- Institute For Soil, Climate And Water Private Bag X79 Pretoria 0001 Tel: 012 310 2500 Fax: 012 323 1157 Email: [email protected] http://www.arc.agric.za

Disclaimer: The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) accepts no responsibility for any application, use or interpretation of the information contained in this advisory and disclaims all liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages resulting from the use of this advisory. Unauthorised use, copying or dissemination hereof is strictly prohibited and may result in severe civil and criminal penalties.

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National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) Advisory on ... · Early Warning Unit, ADRM 3 Gauteng Normal rainfall was received over the majority of the province. The field and hydroponic