National Association of Home Builders -- SURVEY May 2011

8/6/2019 National Association of Home Builders -- SURVEY May 2011

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NAHBNational Survey

Key findings from a national survey of 2,000likely voters, conducted May 3-9, 2011.

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Methodology


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METHODOLOGY

3NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

On behalf of the National Association of Home Builders, Public OpinionStrategies and Lake Research Partners conducted a national survey ofN=2,000 likely 2012 voters. The survey was conducted May 3-9, 2011 and hasa margin of error of +2.19%.

Due to the large sample size of our survey, we are able to show key dataamong both homeowners and renters. Fully 73% of voters in our surveyidentified themselves as homeowners, which is slightly higher than recentpublic polls among adults. However, this is not surprising as voters tend tobe a higher educated, higher income audience than the adult population.

In addition, due to the large sample size of our survey, we are able to showkey data among key political swing areas. Throughout this presentation,we have broken out the data by seats held by House Republican freshmen,Charlie Cooks Swing House & Senate seats, as well as among WashingtonPost Reporter Chris Cillizzas Presidential Swing states.


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METHODOLOGY


House GOP Freshman Seats:Alabama, 2nd Alabama, 5th Arizona, 1st Arizona, 3rd Arizona, 5th Arkansas, 1st Arkansas, 2nd Arkansas, 3rd California, 19th Colorado, 3rd Colorado, 4th Florida, 12th Florida, 22nd Florida, 24th Florida, 25th Florida, 2nd Florida, 5th Florida, 8th

Georgia, 7th

Georgia, 8th Idaho, 1st Illinois, 10th Illinois, 11th Illinois, 14th Illinois, 17th Illinois, 8th Indiana, 4th Indiana, 8th Indiana, 9th

Ohio, 1st Ohio, 6th Oklahoma, 5th Pennsylvania, 10th Pennsylvania, 11th Pennsylvania, 3rd Pennsylvania, 7th Pennsylvania, 8th South Carolina, 1st South Carolina, 3rd South Carolina, 4th South Carolina, 5th South Dakota, At-Large Tennessee, 3rd Tennessee, 4th Tennessee, 6th Tennessee, 8th Texas, 17th

Texas, 23rd

Texas, 27th Virginia, 2nd Virginia, 5th Virginia, 9th Washington, 3rd West Virginia, 1st Wisconsin, 7th Wisconsin, 8th

Kansas, 1st Kansas, 3rd Kansas, 4th Louisiana, 3rd Maryland, 1st Michigan, 1st Michigan, 2nd Michigan, 3rd Michigan, 7th Minnesota, 8th Mississippi, 1st Mississippi, 4th Missouri, 4th Missouri, 7th Nevada, 3rd New Hampshire, 1st New Hampshire, 2nd New Jersey, 3rd

New Mexico, 2nd

New York, 13th New York, 19th New York, 20th New York, 24th New York, 25th North Carolina, 2nd North Dakota, At-Large Ohio, 15th Ohio, 16th Ohio, 18th


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METHODOLOGY


Cook Report House and Senate Swing Seats:U.S. House U.S. Senate

New Mexico

North Dakota

West Virginia

Missouri

New England

Montana

Virginia

Massachusetts

Nevada

Ohio

Florida

Arkansas, 2nd

California, 11 th California, 20 th California, 26 th California, 3 rd Connecticut, 5 th Florida, 22 nd Georgia, 12 th Georgia, 2 nd Illinois, 10 th Illinois, 13

th

Illinois, 17 th Illinois, 8

th

Indiana, 2 nd Iowa, 3 rd Iowa, 4

th

Michigan, 9 th Minnesota, 8

th

Missouri, 3 rd Montana, At LargeNevada, 2

nd

New Hampshire, 1 st New Hampshire, 2 nd

New Jersey, 3rd

New Jersey, 7 th New York, 23 rd New York, 25 th North Carolina, 11 th North Carolina, 13

th

North Carolina, 2 nd North Carolina, 7

th

North Carolina, 8 th Ohio, 13 th Ohio, 6

th

Pennsylvania, 11 th Pennsylvania, 12

th

Pennsylvania, 4 th Pennsylvania, 7 th Pennsylvania, 8 th Texas, 23 rd Texas, 27

th

Utah, 2 nd Washington, 8

th

Wisconsin, 7 th


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METHODOLOGY


Chris Cillizzas Presidential Swing States:

ColoradoFloridaIndianaIowaMinnesotaNevadaNew Hampshire

New MexicoNorth CarolinaOhioVirginia

Swing States


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The Value ofHome Ownership


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9/489NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY MAY 2011

%One of Most/Very Important

Staying out of debt or gettingout of debt.

Owning your own home.

Being successful at your job.

Saving enough for retirement.

Americans believe that owning their own home isas important as being successful at their job or

being able to pay for a family members education.

Being able to provide your familywith more than you had when you

were younger.

Being able to pay for yours or afamily member's education.



Which ONE of these would you say is your best investment?

Home ownership and a retirement savingsprogram are considered by voters to be

their best investments.

Rental property

A home

A retirement savings program likean IRA or 401 (K)

A savings account

Stock market investments

Ownership of a business



Some people say that owning a home is the best long-term investment they can make and is worth the risk of ups and downs in the housing market. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?

Agree

43% Strongly

Disagree

9% Strongly

An overwhelming number of Americans sayowning a home is worth the ups and downs

of the housing market.

+52




Agree

42% Strgly

Dis-agree

That sentiment is strong among rentersand those who currently owe more than

their home is worth.

+64 +36 +46+53 +31

AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree

50% Strgly

39% Strgly

40% Strgly

29% Strgly

13% Strgly

13% Strgly

15% Strgly

By Residence Type Among Those Who Owe

More On Their HomeThan It Is Worth




Agree

41% Strgly

Dis-agree

And, there is agreement across age groups.

+46 +50 +49+59 +61

AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree

41% Strgly

45% Strgly 42% Strgly

50% Strgly

By Age


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Attitudes ofHomeowners



82% Very

Almost every homeowner is happy with theirdecision to own a home.

How happy would you say you are with your decision to own a home? (N=1,460)

Happy Unhappy

Happy 83%Unhappy 17%

Among Those"Under Water"



And, would you advise a member of your family or a close personal friend just starting out to buy a homein order to build long-term assets, or do you think owning a home is too risky of an investment? (N=1,460)

Yes, WouldAdvise to Buy No, Too Risky

Yes, WouldAdvise to Buy No, Too Risky

Fully 80% of homeowners would advise a close friendor family member just starting out to buy a home.

(Thats true even among those homeowners under

water on their mortgage.)

Total and Among Those Who Owe More On Their Home Than It Is Worth


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Attitudes ofNon-Homeowners



Yes No

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Is one of your goals to eventually buy a home, or is that NOT a goal of yours? (N=517)

Nearly three-fourths of voters who do notcurrently own a home say that it is a goal of

theirs to eventually buy one.



Is one of your goals to eventually buy a home, or is that NOT a goal of yours? (N=517)

Yes Yes Yes No NoYes Yes NoNo NoNo Yes

Younger voters (those most likely to be in the marketfor a home in the next few years), overwhelmingly

say buying a home is a goal of theirs.

By Age

18-54 83% -14%55+ 33% -66%



Saving for a down paymentand closing costs

And, which one of the following would you say is your biggest barrier to buying a home? Is it...

(N=376)

The biggest barrier for those who want to own ahome is money for a down payment and closing costs.

Concerns that if home prices drop,your investment could be worth less

than what you paid

Inability to get a loan

Your current debt

Job uncertainty

Your credit score


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The Politics of Housing:Encouraging HomeOwnership


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By Ethnicity

Now, as you may know, since the federal income tax was introduced in 1913, the federal government has used the tax code to encourage home-ownership. In general, do you think it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal

government to provide tax incentives to promote home-ownership or do you think that is not a good idea?

This sentiment shows little variation by ethnicity.

Yes No Yes No Yes No


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Among GOP Freshman Seats

Yes No Yes No Yes No No

And, voters in Americas key"swing areas" also agree.

Among Cook Report House

Among Cillizza Presidential Swing States

Among Cook ReportSenate

Yes

Now, as you may know, since the federal income tax was introduced in 1913, the federal government has used the

tax code to encourage home-ownership. In general, do you think it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote home-ownership or do you think that is not a good idea?


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Have you seen, read or heard anything about proposals being considered in Washington regarding raising down payment requirements when purchasing a home?

Yes No

Few voters have heard anything aboutproposals to raise the down paymentrequirements when buying a home.

-62


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And, do you believe these proposed changes will make it easier or more difficult to buy a home?(N=188)

Easier More Difficult

38% Much More

But, fully 92% of those who have heard believe thatwill make it more difficult to buy a home.

-87


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% Strongly Oppose %Total OpposeEliminating the home mortgage interestdeduction that homeowners can take on

their tax returns.

Limiting the mortgage interest deductionfor those earning over $250,000 per year.

Eliminating the deduction for interestpaid for a second or vacation home.

Scaling back the mortgage interestdeduction for homeowners withmortgages of $500,000 or more.

Eliminating the deduction for interestpaid on home equity loans.

Lowering the home mortgage interestdeduction that homeowners can take on

their tax returns.

All proposals to change the home mortgage interestdeduction are opposed by a majority of Americans.


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Now, Id like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing

industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one Eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns.

Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

A strong majority of voters oppose eliminating thehome mortgage interest deduction.

Total By Party

53%Strongly 50%

Strongly52%

Strongly

58%Strongly


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15% Strong

39% Strong

11% Strong

45% Strong

12% Strong

38% Strong

21% Strong

35% Strong

And, lowering the mortgage interest deduction isalso rejected by voters across party lines.


industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one Lowering the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns.

Total By Party



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14% Strong

36% Strong

13% Strong

42% Strong

12% Strong

36% Strong

17% Strong

30% Strong

Americans also reject eliminating the deduction forinterest paid on home equity loans.


industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one Eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans.

Total By Party



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industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one Eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home.


And, a majority oppose eliminating the deductionfor interest paid for a second or vacation home.

Total By Party

29% Strongly

28%

Strongly

27%

Strongly

33% Strongly

22% Strongly 23% Strongly

26% Strongly 17%

Strongly


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Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

A majority even oppose scaling back the homemortgage interest deduction for homeowners with

large mortgages or those with higher incomes.

Scaling back the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with mortgages of $500,000 or more.

Limiting the mortgage interest deduction for thoseearning over $250,000 per year.

Now, Id like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one

19%Strongly

30%

Strongly 22%Strongly

33%Strongly


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When voters are read two opposingpoints of view on eliminating the home

mortgage interest deduction... Now, Id like to read you two different opinions on eliminating the mortgage interest deduction...

Those who favor this proposal say that the benefits of this deduction go disproportionately to high income Americans

and that eliminating it will help reduce the deficit byincreasing government revenue.

Opponents of this proposal say that the mortgage interest deduction helps families achieve home ownership, which

helps owners build assets for the middle class and provides stability to families.

while


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Do you favor or oppose a proposal to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction?


Nearly two-thirds of voters oppose eliminating thehome mortgage interest deduction, with strong

intensity in opposition.

Total By Party

44% Strongly

13% Strongly


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33% Much

A majority of voters across party lines say they would beless likely to support a candidate for Congress who wanted

to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction.

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who proposed toeliminate the home mortgage interest deduction?

More Less More Less More Less More Less

Total By Party By Tea Party Support

Less LessMore More


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And, voters in Americas swing seats would beless likely to support a candidate who wanted to

eliminate the mortgage interest deduction.Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who proposed to

eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction?

Among GOP Freshman Seats

Among Cook Report House

Among Cillizza Presidential Swing States

Among Cook ReportSenate

LessMore LessMore LessMore LessMore


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Voter Beliefs


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Owning a home is part of the Americandream.

A strong housing industry means morejobs and more money in our communities.

Voters link homeownership toretirement security.


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%Total Convincing

Homeownership as part of the American Dreamand the housing industry's linkage to jobs resonates

strongly with voters.

A strong housing industry means more jobs and moremoney in our communities. Every new single-family home

built creates three full-time jobs and increases theproperty tax base that supports local schools. We need to

strengthen the housing market to keep our local economiesgrowing and creating jobs .

For many people, owning a home is part of their AmericanDream : It creates a stronger community , a place to raise a

family , and is their most valued stable investment for theirchildrens college education and their own retirement and

well-being . We need to strengthen the housing market so thatmore Americans can achieve homeownership .


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Bottom Line


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BOTTOM LINE


Owning a home is a core value and still partof the American dream.

Voters want the government to developpolicies that will encourage growth in thehousing market.

And, they do NOT want the government tomake it harder for people to achieve theAmerican dream.


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For More Information:

NAHB [email protected]

1-800-368-5242 x8409


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214 North Fayette Street Alexandria, Virginia 22314

Phone: (703) 836-7655 Web: www.pos.org

1726 M St., NW, Suite 1100 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: (202) 776-9066

Web: www. lakeresearch.org

Documents

National Association of Home Builders -- SURVEY May 2011