NATIONAL Economics - AreaSearch

EconomicsNATIONAL

Real GDP CPI Population Total Emp. Unemp. Rate Job Ads

Latest $1.87 tril N / A 25.69 mil 13.08 mil 5.62% 0.55 mil $355.35 bil $749,000 $563,000

Yr Change -0.31% 0.86% 0.87% 0.99% + 6 (bps) 28.48% 7.49% 1.58% 1.41%

10yr % pa 1.92% 1.92% 1.52% 1.62% 5.64% (Avg.) -1.53% 3.83% 3.58% 2.62%

As at Dec-20 Dec-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Dec-20

Retail Trade (MAT)

HousePrice

AttachedPrice

For PropertyApril 2021

IMF Forecasts - Apr-21Labour Markets - Mar-21Labour Markets by Region - Dec-20Population by Region - Jun-20

KEY UPDATES

Contents

Summary 1

Our Services 2

Economic Growth 3

Rates & Inflation 5

Population 7

Employment 11

Retail Trade 15

Housing 19

Superannuation 25

Forecasts 27

About AreaSearch 29

Contents & Summary

A stronger than expected economic rebound, as illustrated by persistent consumer demand and the recent windfall in employment growth, places Australia among the top performers of all developed nations in terms of Covid-19 recovery, with Government and Central Bank response proving successful thus far in offsetting the majority the pandemic’s negative economic impacts.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the December quarter of 2020 is up 3.3% on a QvQ basis, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth, while annual job advertisements change has risen to its highest level in 10 years, setting a likely precedent for continuation of this trend over the near-term, though simultaneously raising concerns over inflation. This outperformance, which is further reflected in retail trade and share market figures of late, will be tested over coming periods as the recent termination of the government’s JobKeeperinitiative joins the lifting of temporary anti-insolvency measures as a potential challenge to domestic demand.

While clear global risks remain, particularly in the US, given rampant growth in monetary supply and a proposed 33% increase in the corporate tax rate among numerous other challenges and peculiarities, the mood remains strongly positive.

In this report, and on the AreaSearch web platform, we hope to provide a quick reference point that assists in identifying risks and opportunities and capitalising upon market movements.

Summary

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3

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%Qtr Change Yr Change

The rebound in production has been unevenly distributed, with a slower recovering New South Wales posting negative state final demand (SFD) on a YoY basis while the worst affected and most-recently locked-down state of Victoria appears to be at least 3 months behind other states in its recovery.

Besides South Australia, amid a less aggressive rebound, performance across other states and territories has been robust, driven by the unique economic composition of each, with public sector employment, strong resource output and interstate migration standing out as key drivers.

Since the universally-suffered setback of this time last year, we have experienced steady economic recovery, with Australian GDP recording 3.3% growth over the quarter to December 2020. Meanwhile, on an annual basis the rate is just shy of emerging from its Covid-induced shift into negative territory.

As generous government support measures, namely JobKeeper, were put to sleep as of last month, recent positives in the form of strong employment data and ongoing growth in QvQ retail trade performance imply a comfortable level of cushioning against the downside, while promises of low-for-long monetary policy are likely to encourage continued business and household spending.

AUSGDP: $1.87 trillion

Yr: -0.3%|Qtr: +3.3%10yr % pa: 1.9%

Gross Domestic Product

Data Sources: ABS / AreaSearch

April 2021 Economic Review

4

4.8%

4.4%

2.4%

1.5%

1.2%

0.0%

-0.7%

-3.4%

NT

ACT

QLD

TAS

WA

SA

NSW

VIC

Year Change

NSW - 32.1% VIC - 24.9% QLD - 19.6% SA - 6.3% WA - 10.9% TAS - 1.9% NT - 1.3% ACT - 2.9%

Value Yr Change 10yr % pa

Mining $154.94 bil -5% 5.8%

Rental, Hire & Real Estate $42.88 bil 7.3% 5.2%

Manufacturing $41.07 bil 20.9% 1%

Professional Services $36.61 bil 39.3% 11.4%

Construction $34.04 bil 24.6% 4.3%

Wholesale Trade $33.84 bil 27.8% 4.5%

Retail Trade $32.68 bil 30.9% 5.6%

Logistics $25.82 bil -4% 3.6%

Banks $25.73 bil -3.9% 0.9%

Telecommunications $18.59 bil 3.5% -0.5%

Utilities $17.87 bil -2.7% 7%

Hospitality $15.41 bil 57.2% 6.9%

Other $11.88 bil 166% 7.9%

Admin & Support $10.67 bil 68.9% 11.2%

Arts & Recreation $8.31 bil 65.6% 8.3%

SFD: $204.42 billion SFD: $35.93 billion SFD: $23.88 billion SFD: $55.21 billionYr: +1.2%|Qtr: +1.5% Yr: +1.5%|Qtr: +3.3% Yr: +4.8%|Qtr: +4.1% Yr: +4.4%|Qtr: +1.3%

10yr % pa: 0.8% 10yr % pa: 1.4% 10yr % pa: 1.0% 10yr % pa: 2.8%

SFD: $597.56 billion SFD: $467.60 billion SFD: $364.62 billion SFD: $118.68 billionYr: -0.7%|Qtr: +2.9% Yr: -3.4%|Qtr: +6.8% Yr: +2.4%|Qtr: +2.0% Yr: +0.0%|Qtr: +0.6%

10yr % pa: 2.2% 10yr % pa: 2.3% 10yr % pa: 1.9% 10yr % pa: 1.4%

Typically gross corporate revenues provide further insight into the sectoral performance of the economy, but with Job Keeper payments treated as technical income, unusual results such as the increases seen in hospitality revenues make sectoral analysis challenging while also raising questions about how certain sectors will perform as government assistance continues to scale back.

Looking over the longer term however, clear differences in performance among sectors are apparent.

State Final Demand Corporate Profits

Data Sources: ABS / APRA / AreaSearch

5

Food Liquor Clothing Housing H. Hold Goods

Health Transport Telecom. Recreation Education FinancialServices

1yr Change 2.3% 9.3% -1.3% -0.9% 3.6% 2.6% -4.6% -2.7% 0.0% 2.1% 1.2%

10yr % pa 1.4% 6.1% -0.4% 2.4% 0.8% 4.2% 0.8% -2.5% 0.7% 4.2% 2.2%

20yr % pa 2.6% 5.4% -0.5% 3.3% 0.9% 4.6% 1.4% -0.9% 0.8% 4.8% n.a.*

* Analysis unavailable from the ABS

0.9%

1.5% 1.6%

1.9%

2.4%

1yr Growth

3yr % pa

5yr % pa

10yr % pa

20yr % pa

AUS+0.86% (1yr)

5yr % pa: 1.57%10yr % pa: 1.92%

+0.77% (1yr) +1.28% (1yr) +1.03% (1yr) +0.95% (1yr)5yr % pa: 1.62% 5yr % pa: 1.80% 5yr % pa: 1.61% 5yr % pa: 1.66%10yr % pa: 2.01% 10yr % pa: 2.02% 10yr % pa: 1.89% 10yr % pa: 1.90%

-0.09% (1yr) +0.77% (1yr) +0.00% (1yr) +1.13% (1yr)5yr % pa: 0.80% 5yr % pa: 1.98% 5yr % pa: 0.45% 5yr % pa: 1.87%10yr % pa: 1.54% 10yr % pa: 1.95% 10yr % pa: 1.39% 10yr % pa: 1.86%

In the past year’s lower demand environment, inflationary pressure subsequently subsided, with levels well below the RBA’s target band of 2-3% enabling a new level stimulatory monetary policy to be enacted by the RBA that saw official rates cut to just 0.10% in November in conjunction with quantitative easing efforts via 3yr Government Bond purchases.

Inflation across all states and territories over the year to December 2020 ran below short and medium term averages, though picking up steadily approaching the end of the year, as the economy began to operate nearer to normal. As demand currently surges across the nation’s labour and housing markets, talks of inflationary pressure bringing about a rate increase earlier than initially projected are becoming more prevalent.

Household Goods, Food and Liquor have outperformed materially over the past year, from a pricing perspective, with a clear bias for home consumption while Health, Education and Financial Services were the only other sectors to experience positive growth.

CPI by Sector



6

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%Cash Rate 20yr Avg

0.09%

1.69%

0.20%

3.65%

2.14%

2.05%

2.78%

2.45%

4.96%

4.58%

Two Yr Bond

Ten Yr Bond

Term Deposit

Occupier 3yrVariable Rate

Occupier 3yrFixed Rate

Current 10yr Avg

0.10% 0.25% 0.00% 0.10% 3.85%1.70% 1.63% -0.31% 0.78% 3.16%1.00 0.77 0.64 0.56 5.02

0.25% -0.10% 0.86% 0.26% -0.75%1.72% 0.09% 1.31% 1.57% -0.30%1.08 83.56 5.96 1.03 1.48

$0.5

$0.6

$0.7

$0.8

$0.9

$1.0

$1.1

$1.2AUD / USD 10yr Avg

-100bps

-50bps

0bps

50bps

100bps

150bps

200bps2-10yr Yield Spread 20yr Avg

Interest rates remain at their lowest point in history with the Reserve Bank announcing their latest cut to 0.10% as at the 3rd November 2020.

While up slightly from 2019 lows, the AUD remains down significantly against the 10 year average with 1 Australian Dollar equal to $0.76USD as at April 2021.

Term deposits on average tightened 5 basis points (bps) over the recent 3 months to March 2021. Occupier fixed interest rates fell 6 bp over the same period.

In relative terms, the spread been 2 and 10yr bond yields is at record highs, showing expectations of a more normalised inflation environment over coming years.

Interest Rates

Cash Rate AUD vs USD

2-10 Year Bond Yield Spread

* As at April 2021, below chart shows prior month end

Food Liquor Clothing Housing H. Hold Goods

Health Transport Telecom. Recreation Education FinancialServices

1yr Change 2.3% 9.3% -1.3% -0.9% 3.6% 2.6% -4.6% -2.7% 0.0% 2.1% 1.2%

10yr % pa 1.4% 6.1% -0.4% 2.4% 0.8% 4.2% 0.8% -2.5% 0.7% 4.2% 2.2%

20yr % pa 2.6% 5.4% -0.5% 3.3% 0.9% 4.6% 1.4% -0.9% 0.8% 4.8% n.a.*

* Analysis unavailable from the ABS

0.9%

1.5% 1.6%

1.9%

2.4%

1yr Growth

3yr % pa

5yr % pa

10yr % pa

20yr % pa

AUS+0.86% (1yr)

5yr % pa: 1.57%10yr % pa: 1.92%

+0.77% (1yr) +1.28% (1yr) +1.03% (1yr) +0.95% (1yr)5yr % pa: 1.62% 5yr % pa: 1.80% 5yr % pa: 1.61% 5yr % pa: 1.66%10yr % pa: 2.01% 10yr % pa: 2.02% 10yr % pa: 1.89% 10yr % pa: 1.90%

-0.09% (1yr) +0.77% (1yr) +0.00% (1yr) +1.13% (1yr)5yr % pa: 0.80% 5yr % pa: 1.98% 5yr % pa: 0.45% 5yr % pa: 1.87%10yr % pa: 1.54% 10yr % pa: 1.95% 10yr % pa: 1.39% 10yr % pa: 1.86%

In the past year’s lower demand environment, inflationary pressure subsequently subsided, with levels well below the RBA’s target band of 2-3% enabling a new level stimulatory monetary policy to be enacted by the RBA that saw official rates cut to just 0.10% in November in conjunction with quantitative easing efforts via 3yr Government Bond purchases.

Inflation across all states and territories over the year to December 2020 ran below short and medium term averages, though picking up steadily approaching the end of the year, as the economy began to operate nearer to normal. As demand currently surges across the nation’s labour and housing markets, talks of inflationary pressure bringing about a rate increase earlier than initially projected are becoming more prevalent.

Household Goods, Food and Liquor have outperformed materially over the past year, from a pricing perspective, with a clear bias for home consumption while Health, Education and Financial Services were the only other sectors to experience positive growth.

CPI by Sector

Data Sources: ABS / RBA / AreaSearch / Trading Economics

0.25% 0.10% -0.10% 3.85% 0.21% 0.25% 0.25%0.81% 0.25% 0.03% 3.16% 0.86% 0.81% 0.60%

0.82% 0.00% 0.00% -0.75% 0.00% 0.25% 0.00%1.51% -0.59% -0.31% -0.52% 0.77% 0.62% 0.20%

7

15,000,000

17,000,000

19,000,000

21,000,000

23,000,000

25,000,000

27,000,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000Natural Increase Overseas Migration Total Population (rhs)

AUS+0.87% (1yr)

10yr % pa: +1.52%Latest: 25.69 million

The below chart shows Australia’s total population along with the rolling 12 month composition of growth, split between natural growth (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration to Australia.

At the end of Sep 2020, Australia’s total population stood at 25.69 million people, decreasing 0.02% over the quarter, marking the first quarter of negative growth recorded in over a hundred years. However on an annual basis, the population grew at 0.87%. Of this growth, 62% was by Natural Increase and the remaining 38% from Overseas Migration, which suffered a massive 65% decline from the 12 months prior.

The drop in Overseas Migration highlights the significant potential impact on demand of Covid-related travel restrictions, particularly for residential development, with investors having to be particularly mindful of local supply and demand dynamics given the uncertainty around the reopening of the country’s borders. While global vaccine roll-outs have boosted overall sentiment, Australia’s population and overall economy has felt a blow as a result of weakened overseas demand.

Population Components



8

NSW - 31.8% VIC - 26.0% QLD - 20.2% SA - 6.9% WA - 10.4% TAS - 2.1% NT - 1.0% ACT - 1.7%

+0.62% (1yr) +0.71% (1yr) +1.33% (1yr) +0.72% (1yr)10yr % pa: +1.32% 10yr % pa: +2.00% 10yr % pa: +1.61% 10yr % pa: +0.83%

Latest: 8.17 million Latest: 6.68 million Latest: 5.18 million Latest: 1.77 million

+1.24% (1yr) +0.99% (1yr) +0.18% (1yr) +0.80% (1yr)10yr % pa: +1.47% 10yr % pa: +0.60% 10yr % pa: +0.68% 10yr % pa: +1.74%

Latest: 2.67 million Latest: 541,000 Latest: 247,000 Latest: 431,000

WANat Inc. 10yr Avg: 19,954

Overseas Mig. 10yr Avg: 24,213

1.2x

NTNat Inc. 10yr Avg: 2,811


0.6x

TASNat Inc. 10yr Avg: 1,458


1.4x

VIC

1.7x

Nat Inc. 10yr Avg: 38,302


QLDNat Inc. 10yr Avg: 33,017


1.0x

ACTNat Inc. 10yr Avg: 3,569


0.9x

NSWNat Inc. 10yr Avg: 46,527


1.6x

SANat Inc. 10yr Avg: 6,403


1.9x

AUSNat Inc. 10yr Avg: 152,058


1.4x


Overseas Migration Dependence Ratio by State

9Data Sources: ABS / 2016 Census / AreaSearch

Greater Sydney

Greater Melbourne

Greater BrisbaneGreater Perth

Greater Adelaide

Greater Darwin

Greater Hobart

Population Growth since Census (as at Jun-2020)

ACT

HighLow

National Scale (SA2 Areas)

Local data: www.AreaSearch.com.au/search

http://www.areasearch.com.au/search

http://www.areasearch.com.au/Search

10Data Sources: ABS / 2016 Census / AreaSearch

Greater Sydney

Latest Pop. 1 Yr Change 2011 - 2016 2006 - 2011 PersonsEst. (2020) Growth since Census Growth Growth per SqKm

Sydney - Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury 257,359 2.4% 13% 8.24% 5.45% 79

Sydney - Blacktown 385,650 2.2% 13.5% 11.9% 10.81% 1,593

Sydney - City and Inner South 372,826 1.4% 18.2% 19.28% 8.12% 5,675

Sydney - Eastern Suburbs 296,088 0.4% 10.9% 7.01% 5.96% 5,140

Sydney - Inner South West 630,964 0.7% 10.4% 9.13% 6.64% 3,850

Sydney - Inner West 326,651 0.7% 11.4% 11.28% 8.41% 5,057

Sydney - North Sydney and Hornsby 442,646 0.4% 9.2% 8.19% 6.28% 1,607

Sydney - Northern Beaches 274,041 0.2% 8.4% 6.41% 5.57% 1,078

Sydney - Outer South West 294,899 2% 12.5% 11.14% 5.43% 231

Sydney - Outer West and Blue Mountains 331,168 1.2% 7.9% 6.5% 3.29% 84

Sydney - Parramatta 507,197 0.8% 13.1% 13.6% 10.94% 3,139

Sydney - Ryde 207,511 1.3% 13.9% 11.84% 5.02% 2,990

Sydney - South West 462,408 1.7% 13.9% 12.72% 6.73% 858

Sydney - Sutherland 231,941 0.8% 6.5% 3.62% 2.61% 784

Central Coast 345,857 0.6% 5.5% 4.98% 4.77% 206

Melbourne - Inner 713,203 1.6% 20.5% 17.87% 9.39% 5,016

Melbourne - Inner East 400,191 0.8% 11.3% 5.78% 3.35% 2,730

Melbourne - Inner South 450,242 1% 11.5% 6.74% 5.51% 2,788

Melbourne - North East 566,199 1.7% 14.3% 13.34% 10.21% 306

Melbourne - North West 429,721 2.5% 18.3% 14.1% 9.93% 265

Melbourne - Outer East 536,496 0.4% 7.4% 4.28% 2.8% 286

Melbourne - South East 883,260 1.9% 16.9% 14.78% 12.48% 460

Melbourne - West 867,699 2.5% 19.3% 18.08% 21.02% 613

Mornington Peninsula 312,200 0.6% 8% 6.67% 6.6% 366

Brisbane - East 243,121 1% 9% 5.67% 10.08% 372

Brisbane - North 228,486 1.2% 10.6% 8.1% 9.54% 1,222

Brisbane - South 381,849 1.6% 12.1% 8.43% 9.21% 1,439

Brisbane - West 194,889 0.8% 8.9% 5.07% 5.66% 723

Brisbane Inner City 298,546 2.6% 19.3% 11.71% 9.25% 3,641

Ipswich 371,126 2.4% 14.9% 14.65% 16.58% 56

Logan - Beaudesert 357,143 2.3% 12.6% 9.25% 10.96% 138

Moreton Bay - North 261,602 2.1% 10.8% 9.43% 14.85% 60

Moreton Bay - South 223,958 2.2% 14.9% 16.45% 18.62% 290

Adelaide - Central and Hills 310,091 1.3% 7.1% 4.51% 4.53% 207

Adelaide - North 448,458 1.2% 6% 8.03% 7.87% 477

Adelaide - South 374,910 1% 5.5% 4.55% 5.03% 566

Adelaide - West 243,142 1.3% 6.8% 5.12% 5.56% 1,524

Mandurah 105,364 1.8% 8.9% 16.14% 24.59% 102

Perth - Inner 187,107 2.2% 10.5% 8.28% 9.99% 2,027

Perth - North East 275,750 2.1% 9.9% 14.15% 11.7% 157

Perth - North West 579,082 1.4% 8.2% 10.8% 14.7% 655

Perth - South East 531,673 1.8% 8.9% 12.62% 14.6% 263

Perth - South West 446,138 2% 10.6% 14.34% 14.97% 719

Hobart 238,834 1.1% 7.4% 5.06% 5.01% 141

Darwin 147,231 -0.1% 7.6% 13.47% 13.77% 47

Australian Capital Territory 431,380 1.2% 8.7% 11.29% 10.29% 183

Region

11

3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%

9,000,000

9,500,000

10,000,000

10,500,000

11,000,000

11,500,000

12,000,000

12,500,000

13,000,000

13,500,000

Total Emp. Unemp. (rhs)

AUS+0.57% (1yr)

Unemp. Rate: 5.62%Change: +40 (bps)

Since the abrupt drop in Q1 2020, backed by vaccine optimism and generous government incentives, labour figures have risen beyond pre-Covid levels, to their highest level in history, with total employment as at March 2021 surpassing 13,000,000.

This has seen the unemployment rate decrease by over 1% in the previous six months and the annual rate of job advertisement growth recovering to the highest level in 10 years. More pronounced than widely expected, this performance puts the Reserve Bank at possible odds over its current low-for-long monetary strategy.

While a perceivable level of uncertainty remains over whether the current windfall in business sentiment holds firm or dampens in the face of diminished government support, further positivity can be gleaned from stronger than expected growth within white collar employment sectors. This suggests previous expectations of a part-time-centric employment growth environment may be overly pessimistic.

Employment vs. Unemployment

Annual Employment Growth By Sector (Feb-21)

9.4%6.4%

5.2%5.1%

4.4%3.9%

3.3%2.4%2.1%

1.7%1.1%0.9%

-0.6%-1.0%

-1.5%-1.6%

-2.0%-8.8%

-10.4%

Information & Telecommunications Professional Services

Accommodation & Food Wholsale Trade

Education Public Admin

Other Services Health Care

Construction Manufacturing

Mining Logistics

Finance & Insurance Rental & RE

Admin Retail Trade

Arts & Rec Agriculture

Utilites

Data Sources: ABS / DOE / AreaSearch


12

3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%

9,000,000

9,500,000

10,000,000

10,500,000

11,000,000

11,500,000

12,000,000

12,500,000

13,000,000

13,500,000

Total Emp. Unemp. (rhs)

AUS+0.57% (1yr)

Unemp. Rate: 5.62%Change: +40 (bps)

Since the abrupt drop in Q1 2020, backed by vaccine optimism and generous government incentives, labour figures have risen beyond pre-Covid levels, to their highest level in history, with total employment as at March 2021 surpassing 13,000,000.

This has seen the unemployment rate decrease by over 1% in the previous six months and the annual rate of job advertisement growth recovering to the highest level in 10 years. More pronounced than widely expected, this performance puts the Reserve Bank at possible odds over its current low-for-long monetary strategy.

While a perceivable level of uncertainty remains over whether the current windfall in business sentiment holds firm or dampens in the face of diminished government support, further positivity can be gleaned from stronger than expected growth within white collar employment sectors. This suggests previous expectations of a part-time-centric employment growth environment may be overly pessimistic.

Employment vs. Unemployment

Annual Employment Growth By Sector (Feb-21)

9.4%6.4%

5.2%5.1%

4.4%3.9%

3.3%2.4%2.1%

1.7%1.1%0.9%

-0.6%-1.0%

-1.5%-1.6%

-2.0%-8.8%

-10.4%

Information & Telecommunications Professional Services

Accommodation & Food Wholsale Trade

Education Public Admin

Other Services Health Care

Construction Manufacturing

Mining Logistics

Finance & Insurance Rental & RE

Admin Retail Trade

Arts & Rec Agriculture

Utilites

Total Emp. Yr Change 10yr Avg Unemp. Rate Yr Change 10yr AvgNSW 4,127,761 0.1% 1.6% 5.4% + 52 (bps) 5.3%

VIC 3,445,443 0.1% 2.0% 6.1% + 89 (bps) 5.7%

QLD 2,627,095 2.5% 1.6% 5.9% + 22 (bps) 6.1%

SA 846,791 -1.2% 0.5% 6.3% + 02 (bps) 6.4%

WA 1,402,023 2.1% 1.3% 4.8% -65 (bps) 5.4%

TAS 261,633 1.1% 0.8% 5.9% + 97 (bps) 6.5%

NT 233,387 -2.3% 1.1% 5.6% + 11 (bps) 4.3%

ACT 129,500 -4.9% 0.6% 3.4% + 21 (bps) 4.0%

AUS 13,077,592 0.6% 1.6% 5.6% + 40 (bps) 5.6%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

SA VIC TAS QLD AUS NT NSW WA ACT

Unemp. Rate 10yr Avg

+0.07% (1yr) +0.06% (1yr) +2.45% (1yr) -1.23% (1yr)Unemp. Rate: 5.37% Unemp. Rate: 6.05% Unemp. Rate: 5.85% Unemp. Rate: 6.29%

Change: +52 (bps) Change: +89 (bps) Change: +22 (bps) Change: +2 (bps)

+2.05% (1yr) +1.09% (1yr) -2.26% (1yr) -4.94% (1yr)Unemp. Rate: 4.76% Unemp. Rate: 5.90% Unemp. Rate: 5.57% Unemp. Rate: 3.40%

Change: -65 (bps) Change: +97 (bps) Change: +11 (bps) Change: +21 (bps)

Unemployment rates, while higher than pre-Covid levels, appear to be recovering across all states and territories, with the national rate now falling below the 10 year average, a surprisingly positive result given the termination of JobKeeper.


State Unemployment Rates


13

Greater Sydney

Greater Melbourne


Greater Adelaide

Greater Darwin

Greater Hobart

Unemployment Rate (as at Dec-2020)

LowHigh


ACT





52.6%

50.7%

47.9%

42.4%

38.5%

28.5%

22.0%

18.6%

16.9%

TAS

SA

NT

WA

QLD

AUS

NSW

ACT

VIC

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Total Professionals Industrial SalesFollowing the monumental drop in job

ads between Q3 2019 and Q2 2020, the rate of growth recorded in the year to February 2021 reached its highest point in 10 years. The total number recorded over the year amounted to 545,333 compared to 424,455 in the year previous.

Recent growth has been strong across all sectors, including heavily-hit sales roles, as companies now rush to match rising domestic demand.

While the rebound in job advertisements has been experienced nationwide, it has been far more substantial across the smaller states on a percentage basis, with Tasmania, South Australia, Western Australia and Northern Territory each seeing growth of over 40% over the 3 months to February 2021.

At a more micro level, non-metropolitan areas continue to perform materially better as people opting for life in regional towns has seen demand for services grow.

Job Ads by State & DOE Region

Job Ads Job Ads 10yr Index by Industry

Department of Employment Region Total 2021-Feb 12 Month ChangeDubbo & Western NSW 3,814 95.2%North Coast NSW 9,207 74.1%Tamworth and North West NSW 2,484 71.0%Southern Highlands & Snowy, NSW 2,489 69.0%Illawarra & South Coast, NSW 5,963 65.9%North West TAS 1,263 63.9%South West WA 3,091 63.5%Riverina & Murray, NSW 5,304 62.3%Fleurieu Peninsula & Murray Mallee, SA 2,016 56.5%Sunshine Coast, QLD 6,993 54.1%Bendigo & High Country, VIC 8,124 49.7%Blue Mountains, Bathurst & Central West NSW 4,316 49.4%Toowoomba and South West QLD 5,039 48.3%Ballarat & Central Highlands, VIC 2,390 42.0%Gippsland, VIC 5,863 40.8%Gold Coast, QLD 13,087 39.5%Port Augusta & Eyre Peninsula, SA 1,303 36.4%Newcastle & Hunter, NSW 12,363 35.4%Goldfields & Southern WA 5,120 33.5%Regional NT 1,952 32.9%Yorke Peninsula & Clare Valley, SA 610 31.5%Gosford & Central Coast, NSW 4,026 30.6%Wimmera & Western, VIC 2,464 30.1%Pilbara & Kimberley, WA 5,790 29.0%Launceston and Northeast TAS 1,751 25.8%Adelaide, SA 24,473 24.9%Perth, WA 46,823 24.5%Hobart & Southeast TAS 3,652 24.2%Central QLD 7,466 22.9%Darwin, NT 4,194 22.8%Geelong & Surf Coast, VIC 5,757 19.5%Outback QLD 1,437 11.4%Brisbane, QLD 57,581 11.0%Far North QLD 13,028 10.2%Canberra & ACT 17,477 2.7%Melbourne, VIC 113,273 -2.0%Sydney, NSW 116,449 -8.5%

Greater Sydney

14Data Sources: ABS / DOE / AreaSearch

15

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9% Qtr Change Yr Change

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT AUS

1yr Growth 10yr % pa 20yr % pa

AUS+7.49% MAT

Month Basis +9.09% (YoY)$355.35 billion (MAT)

Moving annual turnover figures show retail trade performance reaching a historical peak, with growth to February 2021 (month vs PCP) up 7.49% on the previous year.

The previous 12 months have seen a strong initial leaning towards Household Goods, Liquor and Food categories while Covid-induced contraction in discretionary spend has made a healthy recovery.

Reflecting ongoing confidence as Australia traverses the pandemic, positive growth was experienced across all states and territories, including Victoria, albeit at a much lower rate due to the state’s lagged recovery.

Total retail trade over the rolling 12 months equated to $355.4 billion, amounting to an average per capita spend of $13,831.

Retail Trade Performance



Note: Our retail trade analysis involves comparison of the previous 3 and 12 month totals to the figures recorded over the previous corresponding periods. As such, our figures differ from the more volatile month on month change figures, as released by the ABS. We believe this methodology provides a more consistent basis with industry practice.

16

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9% Qtr Change Yr Change

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT AUS

1yr Growth 10yr % pa 20yr % pa

AUS+7.49% MAT

Month Basis +9.09% (YoY)$355.35 billion (MAT)

Moving annual turnover figures show retail trade performance reaching a historical peak, with growth to February 2021 (month vs PCP) up 7.49% on the previous year.

The previous 12 months have seen a strong initial leaning towards Household Goods, Liquor and Food categories while Covid-induced contraction in discretionary spend has made a healthy recovery.

Reflecting ongoing confidence as Australia traverses the pandemic, positive growth was experienced across all states and territories, including Victoria, albeit at a much lower rate due to the state’s lagged recovery.

Total retail trade over the rolling 12 months equated to $355.4 billion, amounting to an average per capita spend of $13,831.

Retail Trade Performance

$0bn

$50bn

$100bn

$150bn

$200bn

$250bn

$300bn

$350bn

$400bn Food Household GoodsClothing Department StoresOther Cafes & Restaurants

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Food HouseholdGoods

Clothing DepartmentStores

Other Cafes &Restaurants

Qtr Growth 1yr Growth 10yr % pa

Food HouseholdGoods Clothing

44.1% 19.1% 4.7%

Department Stores Other Cafes &

Restaurants5.5% 15.3% 11.3%

+7.56% MAT +0.79% MAT +11.58% MAT +8.48% MATMonth Basis +10.67% (YoY) Month Basis +3.56% (YoY) Month Basis +12.07% (YoY) Month Basis +9.08% (YoY)

$112.71 billion (MAT) $87.28 billion (MAT) $74.67 billion (MAT) $23.33 billion (MAT)

+13.60% MAT +11.37% MAT +12.32% MAT +11.03% MATMonth Basis +10.50% (YoY) Month Basis +10.27% (YoY) Month Basis +16.37% (YoY) Month Basis +14.88% (YoY)

$39.52 billion (MAT) $7.50 billion (MAT) $3.51 billion (MAT) $6.83 billion (MAT)

As mentioned, Food and Household Goods spend witnessed the most significant growth of all categories over the year to February 2021, with people spending more time at home, while the Clothing and Cafes & Restaurantscategories are yet to return to pre-restriction levels.


Retail Trade Growth by Category

Retail Trade by Category


17

$15,847

$14,819

$14,401

$14,235

$13,869

$13,831

$13,802

$13,175

$13,064

ACT

WA

QLD

NT

TAS

AUS

NSW

SA

VIC

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160Non-Discretionary Discretionary

NSW - 31.7%

VIC - 24.6%

QLD - 21.0%

SA - 6.6%

WA - 11.1%

TAS - 2.1%

NT - 1.0%

ACT - 1.9%

Retail Trade by Sub-Group MAT Yr Change 10yr Avg. Per Capita Yr Change

Supermarket & Grocery Stores $126.3 bil + 10.61% + 4.6% $4,917 + 9.66%

Liquor Retailing $16.1 bil + 30.03% + 6.03% $626 + 28.92%

Other Specialised Food Retailing $10.7 bil + 13.6% + 3.37% $415 + 12.62%

Furniture, Floor Coverings, Houseware & Textile Goods Retailing $16.8 bil + 17.2% + 3.81% $653 + 16.19%

Electrical & Electronic Goods Retailing $25.5 bil + 19.45% + 3.34% $992 + 18.42%

Hardware, Building & Garden Supplies Retailing $24.2 bil + 23.13% + 6.5% $943 + 22.08%

Clothing Retailing $16.3 bil -6.64% + 2.77% $634 -7.44%

Footwear & Other Personal Accessory Retailing $7.9 bil -7.05% + 1.18% $309 -7.85%

Department Stores $19.0 bil + 0.98% + 0.26% $741 + 0.11%

Newspaper & Book Retailing $2.3 bil -10.9% -6.64% $91 -11.66%

Other Recreational Goods Retailing $6.6 bil + 30.15% + 3.71% $258 + 29.03%

Pharmaceutical, Cosmetic & Toiletry Goods Retailing $20.1 bil + 5.88% + 4.44% $781 + 4.98%

Other Retailing n.e.c. $24.0 bil + 15.31% + 7.44% $936 + 14.32%

Cafes, Restaurants & Catering Services $20.3 bil -26.38% + 1.33% $791 -27.01%

Takeaway Food Services $19.1 bil -1.21% + 3.02% $743 -2.06%

New South Wales and Victoria, as the country’s most populous states with the highest levels of economic output, made up almost 55% of the country’s overall retail trade.

Largely correlating with average earnings, retail trade per capita ranged from circa $13,064 to $15,847/pp across states.

Sales of non-discretionary retail goods extended their outperformance of discretionary categories over the year, with total growth of over 50% in the past decade.

In the months between May 2020 and February 2021, however, discretionary spend made a marked comeback, with its growth rate increasing at a far higher rate than over preceding periods.

Overall retail spend as assessed by AreaSearch equated to $6,113 per capita for Non-discretionary retail and $7,717 for discretionary spending.

Retail Trade Compositionby State

Discretionary vs. Non-Discretionary Index

Retail Trade per Capita by State

Data Sources: ABS / AreaSearch 17

18

$15,847

$14,819

$14,401

$14,235

$13,869

$13,831

$13,802

$13,175

$13,064

ACT

WA

QLD

NT

TAS

AUS

NSW

SA

VIC

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160Non-Discretionary Discretionary

NSW - 31.7%

VIC - 24.6%

QLD - 21.0%

SA - 6.6%

WA - 11.1%

TAS - 2.1%

NT - 1.0%

ACT - 1.9%

Retail Trade by Sub-Group MAT Yr Change 10yr Avg. Per Capita Yr Change

Supermarket & Grocery Stores $126.3 bil + 10.61% + 4.6% $4,917 + 9.66%

Liquor Retailing $16.1 bil + 30.03% + 6.03% $626 + 28.92%

Other Specialised Food Retailing $10.7 bil + 13.6% + 3.37% $415 + 12.62%

Furniture, Floor Coverings, Houseware & Textile Goods Retailing $16.8 bil + 17.2% + 3.81% $653 + 16.19%

Electrical & Electronic Goods Retailing $25.5 bil + 19.45% + 3.34% $992 + 18.42%

Hardware, Building & Garden Supplies Retailing $24.2 bil + 23.13% + 6.5% $943 + 22.08%

Clothing Retailing $16.3 bil -6.64% + 2.77% $634 -7.44%

Footwear & Other Personal Accessory Retailing $7.9 bil -7.05% + 1.18% $309 -7.85%

Department Stores $19.0 bil + 0.98% + 0.26% $741 + 0.11%

Newspaper & Book Retailing $2.3 bil -10.9% -6.64% $91 -11.66%

Other Recreational Goods Retailing $6.6 bil + 30.15% + 3.71% $258 + 29.03%

Pharmaceutical, Cosmetic & Toiletry Goods Retailing $20.1 bil + 5.88% + 4.44% $781 + 4.98%

Other Retailing n.e.c. $24.0 bil + 15.31% + 7.44% $936 + 14.32%

Cafes, Restaurants & Catering Services $20.3 bil -26.38% + 1.33% $791 -27.01%

Takeaway Food Services $19.1 bil -1.21% + 3.02% $743 -2.06%

New South Wales and Victoria, as the country’s most populous states with the highest levels of economic output, made up almost 55% of the country’s overall retail trade.

Largely correlating with average earnings, retail trade per capita ranged from circa $13,064 to $15,847/pp across states.

Sales of non-discretionary retail goods extended their outperformance of discretionary categories over the year, with total growth of over 50% in the past decade.

In the months between May 2020 and February 2021, however, discretionary spend made a marked comeback, with its growth rate increasing at a far higher rate than over preceding periods.

Overall retail spend as assessed by AreaSearch equated to $6,113 per capita for Non-discretionary retail and $7,717 for discretionary spending.

Retail Trade Compositionby State

Discretionary vs. Non-Discretionary Index

Retail Trade per Capita by State

NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT

Food

- MAT $46.2 bil $38.5 bil $32.7 bil $10.5 bil $17.0 bil $3.4 bil $1.7 bil $2.9 bil

- Yr Change 11.6% 13.4% 12.5% 10.1% 15.6% 11.6% 11.9% 11.9%

- 10yr % pa 4.4% 5.2% 4.6% 4.1% 4.6% 4.6% 4.2% 4.5%

- Per Capita $5,661 $5,763 $6,311 $5,948 $6,378 $6,352 $7,010 $6,782

Household Goods

- MAT $21.1 bil $17.3 bil $13.6 bil $4.1 bil $6.9 bil n.a.* n.a.* $1.5 bil

- Yr Change 22.4% 12.0% 23.7% 22.9% 25.9% n.a.* n.a.* 27.6%

- 10yr % pa 4.7% 4.9% 5.1% 2.3% 3.9% n.a.* n.a.* 4.9%

- Per Capita $2,585 $2,588 $2,630 $2,322 $2,598 n.a.* n.a.* $3,419

Clothing

- MAT $6.6 bil $3.8 bil $3.3 bil $733 mil $1.2 bil $240 mil $102 mil $326 mil

- Yr Change 5.7% -28.9% 0.0% 1.7% -1.5% -2.1% 1.1% 8.8%

- 10yr % pa 4.8% 0.5% 4.1% -1.8% 1.1% 2.0% 1.4% 3.7%

- Per Capita $813 $565 $642 $414 $432 $444 $415 $755

Department Stores

- MAT $6.4 bil $4.2 bil $3.9 bil $1.4 bil $2.2 bil n.a.* n.a.* $381 mil

- Yr Change 4.1% -13.0% 6.2% 7.6% 7.5% n.a.* n.a.* 1.9%

- 10yr % pa 0.7% -0.4% 0.6% -0.6% 0.4% n.a.* n.a.* 0.0%

- Per Capita $786 $624 $759 $801 $808 n.a.* n.a.* $883

Other

- MAT $15.9 bil $14.2 bil $11.3 bil $3.6 bil $5.5 bil n.a.* n.a.* $799 mil

- Yr Change 12.5% 4.6% 17.9% 6.9% 17.2% n.a.* n.a.* 16.7%

- 10yr % pa 5.0% 4.1% 4.5% 3.6% 5.5% n.a.* n.a.* 5.2%

- Per Capita $1,952 $2,124 $2,176 $2,061 $2,079 n.a.* n.a.* $1,854

Cafes & Restaurants

- MAT $13.3 bil $7.7 bil $8.3 bil $2.3 bil $5.8 bil $690 mil $444 mil $760 mil

- Yr Change -18.1% -32.2% -5.7% -12.0% 1.4% -8.7% -2.5% -12.1%

- 10yr % pa 2.6% -0.9% 3.0% 2.9% 4.4% 3.0% 0.5% 2.8%

- Per Capita $1,634 $1,148 $1,606 $1,313 $2,193 $1,274 $1,802 $1,763

* Retail industry group analysis unavailable from the ABS


19

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

AUS

House Attached

$200k

$300k

$400k

$500k

$600k

$700k

$800k House Attached

$0k

$200k

$400k

$600k

$800k

$1,000k

$1,200k House Attached

AUSHouse: $748,657Attached: $563,380

283,940 Sales

With both interest rates and housing supply output relative to population at their lowest levels in history, the conditions are telling of the strong price growth we have witnessed across Australian cities over recent periods. While there has been notable variation in performance across states, cities and suburbs, regional markets have clearly outperformed over the past 12 months.

Excluding Darwin due to its extreme volatility (largely compositional based) the ACT saw the largest gain over the 12 months to December-20 recording appreciation of 7.17% on ABS numbers. All metro markets bar Melbourne are now moderately higher over the past 12 months, with growth typically in the 3-6% range for the year.

Prices by Capital City

Historical Housing Prices by Dwelling Type

Prices Year Change %



* Metro averages shown

20

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000 House Attached

Sydney - 31.7% Melbourne - 24.7% Brisbane - 16.3% Adelaide - 8.8% Perth - 13.3% Hobart - 1.5% Darwin - 0.6% Canberra - 3.2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

ACT

AUS

House Attached

Overall sales volumes in metro areas totalled just under 284,000 sales for 2020, which is still down significantly from the excess of 350,000 seen in 2015. Around two thirds of housing transactions across the country’s markets (both metro and regional) consisted of ‘House’ sales.


Sales Compositionby Dwelling Type

Metropolitan Residential Sales Volume

House: $750,000Attached: $605,000

69,998 Sales

House: $575,000Attached: $412,300

46,399 Sales

House: $516,300Attached: $411,000

24,913 Sales

House: $554,000Attached: $430,000

4,301 Sales

House: $520,000Attached: $287,500

1,626 Sales

House: $795,000Attached: $500,000

9,009 Sales

House: $522,000Attached: $392,300

37,632 Sales

House: $1,000,000Attached: $735,000

90,062 Sales

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

AUS

House Attached

$200k

$300k

$400k

$500k

$600k

$700k

$800k House Attached

$0k

$200k

$400k

$600k

$800k

$1,000k

$1,200k House Attached

AUSHouse: $748,657Attached: $563,380

283,940 Sales

With both interest rates and housing supply output relative to population at their lowest levels in history, the conditions are telling of the strong price growth we have witnessed across Australian cities over recent periods. While there has been notable variation in performance across states, cities and suburbs, regional markets have clearly outperformed over the past 12 months.

Excluding Darwin due to its extreme volatility (largely compositional based) the ACT saw the largest gain over the 12 months to December-20 recording appreciation of 7.17% on ABS numbers. All metro markets bar Melbourne are now moderately higher over the past 12 months, with growth typically in the 3-6% range for the year.

Prices by Capital City

Historical Housing Prices by Dwelling Type

Prices Year Change %


21

$0m

$5,000m

$10,000m

$15,000m

$20,000m

$25,000m

$30,000m

$35,000mInvestor Finance Owner-Occupier Finance

1x

3x

5x

7x

9x

11x

13xHouse Attached

1.16

0.92

0.79

0.74

0.70

0.68

0.67

0.62

0.30

ACT

VIC

WA

AUS

SA

TAS

QLD

NSW

NT

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000House Attached Approvals per 100 Persons (rhs) NSW - 26.6%

VIC - 32.3%

QLD - 18.3%

WA - 11.2%

SA - 6.5%

TAS - 2.0%

NT - 0.4%

ACT - 2.6%

Cross-referencing average full time earnings per state against median housing prices gives an indication of the relative housing cost burden. Relative pricing is substantially higher in Sydney, Melbourne and ACT although this is partially explained by population density metrics.

Housing finance has remained elevated since its strong spike at the end of October 2020, with the total nearing $30bn over the past 12 months, surpassing the highs of 2017, which is a major positive for housing prices over the coming year.


Housing Prices as a Multiple of Full-time Earnings

Development Approvals vs. Approvals per 100 Persons

Historical HousingFinance Composition

Approvals per 100 Persons by State

NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT AUSMETROPOLITAN

House Price $1000k $750k $575k $516k $522k $554k $520k $795k $749k*- 1yr Change +1.0% -1.6% +4.5% +6.5% +5.5% +7.2% +10.6% +7.2% +1.6%- 10yr % pa +4.9% +3.7% +2.3% +2.3% +0.4% +4.9% -0.5% +4.1% +3.6%Attached Price $735k $605k $412k $411k $392k $430k $288k $500k $563k*- 1yr Change 0.0% +0.8% +3.4% +6.8% +3.2% +7.4% -10.2% +5.8% +1.4%- 10yr % pa +4.2% +2.8% +0.7% +2.1% -0.4% +4.1% -3.7% +1.6% +2.6%House Sales 51,310 40,525 34,531 17,432 28,239 3,085 1,089 4,988 181,199- 1yr Change +15.2% -19.9% +8.5% +9.2% +19.6% -11.4% +19.3% +16.9% +3.5%- Change from 10yr Avg +4.8% -25.4% +3.4% +6.3% +13.3% -11.4% -12.5% +12.1% -3.2%Attached Sales 38,752 29,473 11,868 7,481 9,393 1,216 537 4,021 102,741- 1yr Change +8.4% -19.3% +17.5% +3.2% +23.5% -9.1% -10.7% +8.3% -0.1%- Change from 10yr Avg -10.1% -18.4% -7.5% +13.6% +9.3% -1.0% -45.7% +2.9% -9.4%

REGIONAL

House Price $550k $428k $467k $300k $375k $376k $401k n.a. $452k- 1yr Change +10.0% +9.7% +4.2% +3.4% +10.6% +10.6% -7.6% n.a. +8.3%- 10yr % pa +4.9% +3.9% +1.9% +0.8% -0.3% +3.8% -0.8% n.a. +3.2%Attached Price $435k $313k $399k $184k $229k $300k $329k n.a. $346k

- 1yr Change +7.0% +8.6% +6.7% +16.5% +12.2% +1.9% +14.8% n.a. +8.0%- 10yr % pa +4.2% +3.0% +1.9% +1.8% -2.0% +2.7% -0.2% n.a. +2.6%House Sales 52,244 24,121 40,851 6,823 8,731 6,165 392 n.a. 139,327- 1yr Change +20.8% +2.3% +20.3% +20.3% +35.1% +0.2% +28.5% n.a. +16.7%- Change from 10yr Avg +20.8% +1.1% +14.6% +21.3% +34.4% +11.5% -7.3% n.a. +15.3%Attached Sales 12,099 4,437 18,688 819 1,240 1,080 132 n.a. 38,495- 1yr Change +26.8% -2.1% +14.6% +35.6% +22.1% -7.2% -21.4% n.a. +15.5%- Change from 10yr Avg +21.7% +11.8% +15.4% +30.2% +32.1% +16.0% -30.7% n.a. +17.4%

HOUSEHOLD FINANCES

Weekly Full-time Earnings $1,815 $1,769 $1,679 $1,586 $1,908 $1,540 $1,777 $1,921 $1,770- Annualised $94,354 $91,983 $87,298 $82,488 $99,216 $80,075 $92,394 $99,887 $92,035- 1yr Change +7.7% +8.9% +2.6% +4.8% +3.4% +4.1% +2.9% +4.5% +6.1%- Change from 10yr Avg +35.7% +37.9% +31.8% +31.0% +32.8% +34.8% +32.4% +31.0% +34.6%House Price Multiple 10.6x 8.2x 6.6x 6.3x 5.3x 6.9x 5.6x 8.0x 8.1x- 1yr Change -6.2% -9.6% +1.9% +1.6% +2.0% +3.0% +7.5% +2.5% -4.3%- Change from 10yr Avg -9.8% -11.6% -14.2% -12.0% -28.1% +2.5% -30.8% -2.5% -12.2%Attached Price Multiple 7.8x 6.6x 4.7x 5.0x 4.0x 5.4x 3.1x 5.0x 6.1x*- 1yr Change -7.1% -7.4% +0.8% +1.9% -0.2% +3.2% -12.7% +1.2% -4.4%- Change from 10yr Avg -16.7% -15.6% -25.6% -14.7% -33.5% -1.9% -49.6% -15.4% -18.9%Owner-Occupier Finance $6,464m $6,465m $4,180m $1,243m $2,507m $335m $122m $455m $21,703m- 1yr Change +43.6% +50.2% +62.7% +62.0% +103.7% +46.0% +100.2% +30.7% +55.2%- Change from 10yr Avg +68.2% +87.0% +84.4% +73.7% +81.1% +81.0% +42.0% +63.3% +77.8%Investor Finance $2,846m $1,942m $1,144m $304m $412m $89m $18m $180m $6,936m- 1yr Change +31.7% +16.6% +35.8% +48.3% +64.6% +16.6% +19.5% +141.0% +31.6%- Change from 10yr Avg +3.6% +10.4% +5.5% -3.2% -22.0% +46.3% -49.0% +42.0% +4.3%Total Housing Finance $9,311m $8,407m $5,325m $1,547m $2,919m $424m $140m $635m $28,639m- 1yr Change +39.7% +40.8% +56.0% +59.1% +97.1% +38.7% +84.3% +50.2% +48.8%- Change from 10yr Avg +41.2% +61.1% +58.8% +50.3% +52.7% +72.4% +15.7% +56.7% +51.9%

DEVELOPMENT APPROVALS

House Approvals 27,281 41,260 24,328 9,659 17,300 3,500 493 1,247 125,068- 1yr Change +14.0% +17.8% +19.9% +21.7% +55.4% +25.5% +31.5% +9.6% +21.8%- Change from 10yr Avg +11.7% +20.9% +11.7% +23.7% +4.5% +58.7% -14.9% -10.9% +14.9%Attached Approvals 23,201 20,025 10,386 2,693 3,883 197 248 3,772 64,405- 1yr Change -10.7% -16.6% -3.0% -27.0% +8.7% -40.1% +57.0% -4.0% -11.0%- Change from 10yr Avg -25.5% -26.3% -34.2% -20.8% -32.6% -54.7% -68.5% +3.9% -26.9%Total Approvals 50,482 61,285 34,714 12,352 21,183 3,697 741 5,019 189,473- 1yr Change +1.1% +3.8% +12.0% +6.2% +44.0% +18.6% +39.0% -1.0% +8.3%- Change from 10yr Avg -9.1% 0.0% -7.6% +10.2% -5.1% +40.0% -45.8% -0.2% -3.8%

Approvals per 100 Persons 0.62 0.92 0.67 0.70 0.79 0.68 0.30 1.16 0.74- 10yr Average 0.72 1.01 0.78 0.66 0.89 0.51 0.57 1.26 0.82

Population Growth per Approval 1.0 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.7 1.2- 10yr Average 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.9

* Population-based Weighted Average

Housing Prices as at Dec-20 Development Approvals as at Feb-21 Population as at Sep-20Weekly Earnings as at Nov-20 Housing Finance as at Feb-21


With population growth having declined materially, pre-Covid dwelling approvals near historic lows (relative to the population base) has provided strong support to pricing over recent periods. Total approvals of 189,473 for the year, equates to 0.74 approvals per 100 people, which is circa 10% below the 10 year average.

This figure differs substantially between states and regions however, with ACT having almost more than double the relative supply of Brisbane for example and as such, assessing supply and demand dynamics between areas becomes increasingly critical given the decline in overseas demand.


22

$0m

$5,000m

$10,000m

$15,000m

$20,000m

$25,000m

$30,000m

$35,000mInvestor Finance Owner-Occupier Finance

1x

3x

5x

7x

9x

11x

13xHouse Attached

1.16

0.92

0.79

0.74

0.70

0.68

0.67

0.62

0.30

ACT

VIC

WA

AUS

SA

TAS

QLD

NSW

NT

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000House Attached Approvals per 100 Persons (rhs) NSW - 26.6%

VIC - 32.3%

QLD - 18.3%

WA - 11.2%

SA - 6.5%

TAS - 2.0%

NT - 0.4%

ACT - 2.6%

With population growth set to decline materially, dwelling approvals currently at historic lows (relative to the population base) provides important, and timely, support to pricing. Total approvals of 189,473 for the year, equate to 0.74 approvals per 100 people, which is circa 10% below the 10 year average.

This figure differs substantially between states and regions however, with ACT having almost more than double the relative supply of Brisbane for example and as such, assessing supply and demand dynamics between areas becomes increasingly critical given the decline in overseas demand.

Cross-referencing average full time earnings per state against median housing prices gives an indication of the relative housing cost burden. Relative pricing is substantially higher in Sydney, Melbourne and ACT although this is partially explained by population density metrics.

Housing finance has remained elevated since its strong spike at the end of October 2020, with the total nearing $30bn over the past 12 months, surpassing the highs of 2017, which is a major positive for housing prices over the coming year.


Housing Prices as a Multiple of Full-time Earnings

Development Approvals vs. Approvals per 100 Persons

Historical HousingFinance Composition

Approvals per 100 Persons by State

NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT AUSMETROPOLITAN

House Price $1000k $750k $575k $516k $522k $554k $520k $795k $749k* - 1yr Change +1.0% -1.6% +4.5% +6.5% +5.5% +7.2% +10.6% +7.2% +1.6% - 10yr % pa +4.9% +3.7% +2.3% +2.3% +0.4% +4.9% -0.5% +4.1% +3.6% Attached Price $735k $605k $412k $411k $392k $430k $288k $500k $563k* - 1yr Change 0.0% +0.8% +3.4% +6.8% +3.2% +7.4% -10.2% +5.8% +1.4% - 10yr % pa +4.2% +2.8% +0.7% +2.1% -0.4% +4.1% -3.7% +1.6% +2.6% House Sales 51,310 40,525 34,531 17,432 28,239 3,085 1,089 4,988 181,199 - 1yr Change +15.2% -19.9% +8.5% +9.2% +19.6% -11.4% +19.3% +16.9% +3.5% - Change from 10yr Avg +4.8% -25.4% +3.4% +6.3% +13.3% -11.4% -12.5% +12.1% -3.2% Attached Sales 38,752 29,473 11,868 7,481 9,393 1,216 537 4,021 102,741 - 1yr Change +8.4% -19.3% +17.5% +3.2% +23.5% -9.1% -10.7% +8.3% -0.1% - Change from 10yr Avg -10.1% -18.4% -7.5% +13.6% +9.3% -1.0% -45.7% +2.9% -9.4%

REGIONAL

House Price $550k $428k $467k $300k $375k $376k $401k n.a. $452k - 1yr Change +10.0% +9.7% +4.2% +3.4% +10.6% +10.6% -7.6% n.a. +8.3% - 10yr % pa +4.9% +3.9% +1.9% +0.8% -0.3% +3.8% -0.8% n.a. +3.2% Attached Price $435k $313k $399k $184k $229k $300k $329k n.a. $346k - 1yr Change +7.0% +8.6% +6.7% +16.5% +12.2% +1.9% +14.8% n.a. +8.0% - 10yr % pa +4.2% +3.0% +1.9% +1.8% -2.0% +2.7% -0.2% n.a. +2.6% House Sales 52,244 24,121 40,851 6,823 8,731 6,165 392 n.a. 139,327 - 1yr Change +20.8% +2.3% +20.3% +20.3% +35.1% +0.2% +28.5% n.a. +16.7% - Change from 10yr Avg +20.8% +1.1% +14.6% +21.3% +34.4% +11.5% -7.3% n.a. +15.3% Attached Sales 12,099 4,437 18,688 819 1,240 1,080 132 n.a. 38,495 - 1yr Change +26.8% -2.1% +14.6% +35.6% +22.1% -7.2% -21.4% n.a. +15.5% - Change from 10yr Avg +21.7% +11.8% +15.4% +30.2% +32.1% +16.0% -30.7% n.a. +17.4%

HOUSEHOLD FINANCES

Weekly Full-time Earnings $1,815 $1,769 $1,679 $1,586 $1,908 $1,540 $1,777 $1,921 $1,770 - Annualised $94,354 $91,983 $87,298 $82,488 $99,216 $80,075 $92,394 $99,887 $92,035 - 1yr Change +7.7% +8.9% +2.6% +4.8% +3.4% +4.1% +2.9% +4.5% +6.1% - Change from 10yr Avg +35.7% +37.9% +31.8% +31.0% +32.8% +34.8% +32.4% +31.0% +34.6% House Price Multiple 10.6x 8.2x 6.6x 6.3x 5.3x 6.9x 5.6x 8.0x 8.1x - 1yr Change -6.2% -9.6% +1.9% +1.6% +2.0% +3.0% +7.5% +2.5% -4.3% - Change from 10yr Avg -9.8% -11.6% -14.2% -12.0% -28.1% +2.5% -30.8% -2.5% -12.2% Attached Price Multiple 7.8x 6.6x 4.7x 5.0x 4.0x 5.4x 3.1x 5.0x 6.1x* - 1yr Change -7.1% -7.4% +0.8% +1.9% -0.2% +3.2% -12.7% +1.2% -4.4% - Change from 10yr Avg -16.7% -15.6% -25.6% -14.7% -33.5% -1.9% -49.6% -15.4% -18.9% Owner-Occupier Finance $6,464m $6,465m $4,180m $1,243m $2,507m $335m $122m $455m $21,703m - 1yr Change +43.6% +50.2% +62.7% +62.0% +103.7% +46.0% +100.2% +30.7% +55.2% - Change from 10yr Avg +68.2% +87.0% +84.4% +73.7% +81.1% +81.0% +42.0% +63.3% +77.8% Investor Finance $2,846m $1,942m $1,144m $304m $412m $89m $18m $180m $6,936m - 1yr Change +31.7% +16.6% +35.8% +48.3% +64.6% +16.6% +19.5% +141.0% +31.6% - Change from 10yr Avg +3.6% +10.4% +5.5% -3.2% -22.0% +46.3% -49.0% +42.0% +4.3% Total Housing Finance $9,311m $8,407m $5,325m $1,547m $2,919m $424m $140m $635m $28,639m - 1yr Change +39.7% +40.8% +56.0% +59.1% +97.1% +38.7% +84.3% +50.2% +48.8% - Change from 10yr Avg +41.2% +61.1% +58.8% +50.3% +52.7% +72.4% +15.7% +56.7% +51.9%

DEVELOPMENT APPROVALS

House Approvals 27,281 41,260 24,328 9,659 17,300 3,500 493 1,247 125,068 - 1yr Change +14.0% +17.8% +19.9% +21.7% +55.4% +25.5% +31.5% +9.6% +21.8% - Change from 10yr Avg +11.7% +20.9% +11.7% +23.7% +4.5% +58.7% -14.9% -10.9% +14.9% Attached Approvals 23,201 20,025 10,386 2,693 3,883 197 248 3,772 64,405 - 1yr Change -10.7% -16.6% -3.0% -27.0% +8.7% -40.1% +57.0% -4.0% -11.0% - Change from 10yr Avg -25.5% -26.3% -34.2% -20.8% -32.6% -54.7% -68.5% +3.9% -26.9% Total Approvals 50,482 61,285 34,714 12,352 21,183 3,697 741 5,019 189,473 - 1yr Change +1.1% +3.8% +12.0% +6.2% +44.0% +18.6% +39.0% -1.0% +8.3% - Change from 10yr Avg -9.1% 0.0% -7.6% +10.2% -5.1% +40.0% -45.8% -0.2% -3.8%Approvals per 100 Persons 0.62 0.92 0.67 0.70 0.79 0.68 0.30 1.16 0.74 - 10yr Average 0.72 1.01 0.78 0.66 0.89 0.51 0.57 1.26 0.82Population Growth per Approval 1.0 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 - 10yr Average 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.9

* Population-based Weighted Average

Housing Prices as at Dec-20 Development Approvals as at Feb-21 Population as at Sep-20Weekly Earnings as at Nov-20 Housing Finance as at Feb-21


23Data Sources: ABS / AreaSearch

Development Approvals per 100 Persons (as at Feb-2021)

Greater Sydney

Greater Melbourne


Greater Adelaide

Greater Darwin

Greater Hobart

HighLow


ACT




24Data Sources: ABS / AreaSearch

Greater Sydney

Total DAs Avg. House Other Pop. Gr. DAs per Persons Densificationprev. year Apps.* Apps. Apps. per DA 100 Pers. per DA Rating**

Sydney - Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury 2,646 3,087 75% 25% 1.18 1.00 101 Low

Sydney - Blacktown 5,373 4,839 61% 39% 0.87 1.28 78 Moderate

Sydney - City and Inner South 3,572 4,708 4% 96% 1.06 0.64 156 High

Sydney - Eastern Suburbs 479 1,082 28% 72% 0.76 0.29 351 Moderate

Sydney - Inner South West 3,152 4,885 26% 74% 0.58 0.58 172 High

Sydney - Inner West 1,025 2,356 21% 79% 0.89 0.41 244 High

Sydney - North Sydney and Hornsby 1,763 3,118 30% 70% 0.40 0.45 222 High

Sydney - Northern Beaches 809 896 59% 41% 0.58 0.20 500 Low

Sydney - Outer South West 2,513 3,022 76% 24% 0.96 1.01 99 Low

Sydney - Outer West and Blue Mountains 1,800 2,608 59% 41% 0.95 0.60 168 Moderate

Sydney - Parramatta 3,713 6,078 19% 81% 0.39 1.03 98 High

Sydney - Ryde 1,232 2,989 14% 86% 0.83 0.80 125 High

Sydney - South West 4,955 5,742 68% 32% 0.82 1.03 97 Moderate

Sydney - Sutherland 999 1,743 20% 80% 0.61 0.64 158 High

Central Coast 1,079 1,655 68% 32% 0.68 0.41 247 Low

Melbourne - Inner 5,027 11,012 4% 96% 0.74 1.09 92 High

Melbourne - Inner East 2,213 3,903 23% 78% 0.41 0.93 108 High

Melbourne - Inner South 3,440 4,153 23% 77% 0.72 0.67 150 High

Melbourne - North East 4,905 5,168 66% 34% 0.94 0.90 112 Moderate

Melbourne - North West 5,136 5,244 78% 22% 1.04 1.17 86 Low

Melbourne - Outer East 2,019 2,728 47% 53% 0.42 0.44 230 Moderate

Melbourne - South East 7,323 9,260 74% 26% 1.01 0.94 106 Moderate

Melbourne - West 14,045 10,911 80% 20% 0.92 1.34 75 Low

Mornington Peninsula 1,328 1,903 65% 35% 0.62 0.50 200 Low

Brisbane - East 1,481 1,663 80% 20% 1.09 0.47 215 Low

Brisbane - North 1,104 1,855 53% 48% 0.99 0.59 171 Moderate

Brisbane - South 2,885 3,089 57% 43% 1.32 0.60 168 Moderate

Brisbane - West 870 1,101 57% 43% 1.01 0.42 241 Moderate

Brisbane Inner City 2,346 4,298 13% 87% 1.75 0.72 139 High

Ipswich 3,429 3,887 88% 12% 1.47 0.81 124 Low

Logan - Beaudesert 3,963 3,070 81% 19% 1.24 0.91 111 Low

Moreton Bay - North 3,140 2,593 84% 16% 0.99 1.05 96 Low

Moreton Bay - South 1,740 1,877 73% 27% 1.70 0.65 155 Moderate

Adelaide - Central and Hills 2,424 2,869 51% 49% 0.73 0.89 113 Moderate

Adelaide - North 3,921 2,757 93% 7% 1.01 0.58 172 Low

Adelaide - South 2,121 2,228 75% 25% 0.90 0.56 179 Low

Adelaide - West 1,943 2,281 65% 35% 0.71 0.92 109 Low

Mandurah 1,328 912 98% 2% 1.38 0.65 155 Low

Perth - Inner 2,396 1,449 24% 76% 1.82 0.60 168 High

Perth - North East 3,294 2,378 95% 5% 1.38 0.76 132 Low

Perth - North West 4,361 3,827 86% 14% 1.23 0.55 182 Low

Perth - South East 4,344 3,846 84% 16% 1.54 0.58 174 Low

Perth - South West 4,841 3,681 87% 13% 1.58 0.64 156 Low

Hobart 1,695 1,340 91% 9% 0.81 0.68 147 Low

Darwin 480 689 83% 17% -0.22 0.28 357 Low

Australian Capital Territory 4,884 5,397 26% 74% 0.46 1.29 78 High

* Over 5 years

** AreaSearch ranking based on difference in recent approval composition to housing composition as at the previous Census

Region

25

$bn

$500bn

$1,000bn

$1,500bn

$2,000bn

$2,500bn

$3,000bn

$3,500bnAustralian GDP Superannuation

Given the sheer scale of Australia’s superannuation system, the investment decisions made by the superannuation industry as a whole can play a material part in asset class performance and should be taken into consideration where possible. Presently at 9.5%, superannuation guarantee contributions will rise to 10% of every Australian worker’s income and progressively rise to 12% at the start of FY-26. As such, the impact of the superannuation juggernaut will remain a key factor for investment in coming years.

With total assets of $3.04 trillion dollars as at December 2020 according to the latest APRA data, Australia’s Superannuation system now possesses a total asset pool well in excess of national GDP and has grown well beyond the rate of national production over the past 20 years. Filling such growth requirements with real assets such as property is challenging given the need for development, while fixed income and equities allocations can be attained with far greater ease and liquidity.

The current target allocation for the superannuation industry stands at 8.0% for property, split between 5.0% for direct assets (typically via property funds) and 3.0% for listed property (A-REITs). Over the 12 months to December 2020, total returns for the sector were down 7.5%. The previous two quarters, however, have recorded positive growth, with continued strong performance in the share market. Total asset levels for superannuation were also up (2.1%) for the 12 months after a rare period of contraction initially driven by equities, to which superannuation funds hold a high 49.2% allocation, spurring redemption requests among less volatile asset classes such as property which drove a number of sales. Given the subsequent recovery, the sector is likely to again move to be a net acquirer of property assets.

Superannuation Assets vs National GDP

Data Sources: ABS / APRA / PCA / AreaSearch


26Data Sources: ABS / APRA / PCA / AreaSearch

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%YoY Change Accumulation Index (rhs)

Industry Funds - $818 bn|Yr 6.0%|10yr % pa 13.1%|26.9% of Total Assets

SMSFs - $764 bn|Yr 2.8%|10yr % pa 7.3%|25.1% of Total Assets

Retail Funds - $634 bn|Yr 2.8%|10yr % pa 6.0%|20.8% of Total Assets

Public Funds - $553 bn|Yr 2.8%|10yr % pa 11.2%|18.2% of Total Assets

Balance - $217 bn|Yr -2.9%|10yr % pa 14.6%|7.1% of Total Assets

Corporate Funds - $58 bn|Yr 2.8%|10yr % pa 0.1%|1.9% of Total Assets

Equities - 53% Fixed Income - 20% Cash - 11% Infrastructure - 6%

Unlisted Property - 5% Other - 3% Listed Property - 3% Commodities - 0%

Data Sources: ABS / APRA / PCA / AreaSearch

Total Assets & Growth by Super Type

Asset Allocation by Category

Superannuation Returns vs. Year Change %

Total Assets

SuperannuationReturns

Current $3.04 trilQtr Growth 5.4%1yr Growth 2.2%10yr % pa 9.1%20yr % pa 9.4%

Qtr Growth 6.2%1yr Growth 3.0%3yr % pa 5.7%10yr % pa 7.0%15yr % pa 5.5%

OfficeTotal 4.7% - Income 4.9% - Capital -0.2%

RetailTotal -10.1% - Income 4.1% - Capital -13.7%

IndustrialTotal 13.9% - Income 5.6% - Capital 7.9%

Property SectorReturns

27

NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT

Real Gross State Product 1.90% 3.00% 1.60% 1.40% n/a 3.60% -1.50% 3.00%Employment 3.30% 3.40% 1.40% 1.50% n/a 0.20% -3.40% 1.50%Unemployment Rate 4.60% 4.60% 6.10% n/a n/a 6.30% 4.50% n/aConsumer Price Index 1.70% 1.70% 1.60% 1.50% n/a 2.50% 0.90% 1.70%Wage Price Index 2.40% 2.70% 2.30% n/a n/a n/a 2.10% 2.20%Population 1.30% 2.10% 1.70% n/a n/a 1.20% -0.40% 1.50%

Real Gross State Product -1.00% -0.25% -0.40% -1.75% 2.00% -0.50% 4.80% 2.40%Employment 0.00% 1.20% 0.50% -0.60% 0.30% 1.30% -0.70% 0.50%Unemployment Rate 6.50% 5.40% 6.40% n/a 6.10% 5.90% 5.60% n/aConsumer Price Index 1.00% 1.70% 1.20% 1.80% 1.30% 2.40% 0.20% -0.60%Wage Price Index 2.00% 2.40% 1.90% n/a 1.70% n/a 2.30% 2.00%Population 0.90% 1.60% 1.50% n/a 1.30% 1.00% -0.30% 1.10%

Real Gross State Product -0.50% -4.00% 0.25% -0.75% 1.25% -1.50% -0.10% 2.00%Employment -0.25% -3.25% 1.00% 0.00% -0.25% -1.75% -0.70% 4.00%Unemployment Rate 6.50% 7.75% 7.50% n/a 8.00% 8.50% 6.30% n/aConsumer Price Index 1.25% 0.75% 1.25% 1.50% 1.50% 1.70% 0.50% 3.00%Wage Price Index 1.25% 1.00% 1.25% n/a 1.50% n/a 1.60% 1.50%Population 0.00% 0.20% 1.00% n/a 0.80% 0.50% 0.20% 0.25%

Real Gross State Product 2.75% 7.75% 3.50% 4.25% 2.75% 3.75% 1.50% 2.75%Employment 0.75% 3.50% 2.25% 2.00% 2.25% -1.00% 1.30% 0.50%Unemployment Rate 6.00% 7.00% 7.00% n/a 7.00% 8.25% 6.10% n/aConsumer Price Index 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.25% 1.75% 1.20% 1.10% 1.25%Wage Price Index 1.50% 1.75% 1.50% n/a 1.75% n/a 1.60% 1.75%Population 0.20% 0.40% 1.00% n/a 0.70% 0.60% 0.40% 0.25%

Real Gross State Product 2.00% 3.25% 2.75% 3.00% 1.25% n/a 2.10% 2.75%Employment 1.00% 2.25% 2.00% 1.50% 2.00% n/a 1.60% 1.00%Unemployment Rate 5.75% 6.25% 6.50% n/a 6.25% n/a 5.60% n/aConsumer Price Index 1.50% 1.75% 1.75% 1.50% 1.75% n/a 1.40% 1.50%Wage Price Index 1.50% 2.00% 2.00% n/a 2.00% n/a 1.30% 1.75%Population 0.70% 1.10% 1.25% n/a 1.00% n/a 0.70% 0.75%

Real Gross State Product 2.75% 3.00% 2.75% 3.00% 1.50% n/a -0.80% 3.00%Employment 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.50% 1.75% n/a 1.80% 1.25%Unemployment Rate 5.00% 5.75% 6.50% n/a 6.00% n/a 5.10% n/aConsumer Price Index 1.75% 2.00% 2.00% 1.75% 2.00% n/a 1.80% 1.75%Wage Price Index 1.75% 2.25% 2.25% n/a 2.25% n/a 1.20% 2.00%Population 1.10% 1.70% 1.50% n/a 1.30% n/a 0.90% 1.00%

Note: Forecasts, estimates and actual figures in line with state treasuries. Latest figures as at April 2021.Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics; Estimates and forecasts, NSW Treasury, VIC Treasury, QLD Treasury,SA Treasury, WA Treasury, TAS Treasury, NT Treasury & ACT Treasury Budget Papers 2020-21

2023-2024 Projection

2019-2020 Outcome

2018-2019 Outcome

2020-2021 Forecasts

2021-2022 Forecasts

2022-2023 Projection

ForecastsApril 2021 Economic Review

Click headings to view online

ACTNTTASWASAQLDVICNSW

https://budget.gov.au/2020-21/content/overview.htm

https://apps.treasury.act.gov.au/budget/budget-2020-21/budget-papers


https://nteconomy.nt.gov.au/outlook#:~:text=The%20NT's%20headline%20economic%20activity,in%20goods%20exports%2C%20notably%20LNG.&text=In%202020%E2%80%9121%2C%20GSP%20is,economic%20conditions%20(Chart%202).


https://www.treasury.tas.gov.au/budget-and-financial-management/2020-21-tasmanian-budget/2020-21-tasmanian-budget-html


https://www.ourstatebudget.wa.gov.au/budget-papers.html


https://www.treasury.sa.gov.au/budget/current-budget


https://budget.qld.gov.au/budget-papers/#budget-paper-2


https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/2020-21-state-budget/2020-21-strategy-and-outlook


https://www.budget.nsw.gov.au/2020-21-Budget-Papers

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Percentages equate to the annual change from PCP , * 5 yr Avg. Inflation

Forecasts

Real GDP

Employment

Unemployment

CPI

WPI

Nominal GDP

1.50% 2.00% 2.25%

-1.75% 3.25% 4.50% 5.00%

1.80%

1.70%

7.00%

-0.30%

7.25%

1.25%

1.75%

2020 - 2021

2.00%

6.50% 6.00% 5.50%

1.50% 1.75%

1.75%

2022 - 2023-0.20% -1.50% 4.75% 2.75%

-4.30%

2019 - 2020

2.75% 1.75% 1.00%

Actual

3.00%2023 - 20242021 - 2022

IMF Global Forecasts

Federal Government Economic Forecasts (as at Dec-2020)

21 22 23-26 (CAGR)

- GDP 6.4%| 3.5%| 1.5% - Inflation 2.3%| 2.4%| 2.4%* - Pop. Gr. 0.6%| 0.6%| 0.6%

USA - GDP 3.6%| 2.8%| 2.4% - Inflation 1.4%| 0.9%| 1.7%* - Pop. Gr. 0.1%| 0.1%| 0.0%

South Korea

- GDP 3.3%| 2.5%| 0.7% - Inflation 0.1%| 0.7%| 0.9%* - Pop. Gr. -0.4%| -0.4%| -0.5%

Japan


Germany


China


Hong Kong


Australia


Singapore


New Zealand


United Kingdom

* Note: Using IMF/WEO data from April 2021

Data Sources: Government of Australia / IMF

Federal Government Economic Forecasts



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Reach out today to schedule

Chris Freeman Matthew DiBernardoRonan O’Carroll

AreaSearch was founded by Chris Freeman, who previously established and ran the research function for the Charter Hall Group, now Australia’s largest property fund manager.

With hundreds of thousands of data points collated and cross examined, unique AreaSearch algorithms make economic and location-based analysis infinitely more convenient and effective.

Chris Freeman Matthew Di BernardoRonan O’Carroll

About AreaSearch

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