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National Freight Demand Study 2014 Prepared by Gayelene Wright, Maritime and Freight
The Study’s approach
► Commodity based estimate of the freight task
► Uses government and industry data
► 170 interviews with people in industry
► Forecasts based on industry data and published
government forecasts
A lot has changed since the first study in 2008
Powerpoint presentation - 2014
global
financial crisis
growth of the
services
sector
climatic
events
changes in
international
shipping
patterns
online
shopping
new transport
policies
The current freight task is substantial
236m
tonnes
In both tonnes and tonne-kilometres
26.3b
tonne-km
Currently the growth area is rail...
…but roads remain our
main mode for moving
freight
Modal Shares tonne-kilometres
Rail 8%
Coastal Shipping -10%
Road -2%
Percentage growth 2006 - 2012 tonne-kilometres
...but roads remain our
main mode for moving
freight
Rail, 15%
Coastal Shipping,
15%
Road, 70%
Rail, 16%
Coastal Shipping,
14% Road, 70%
2006 2012
The freight task is set to rise significantly by 2042
373m tonnes
236m tonnes
The freight forecast by broad commodity group
60%
28% 33%
62%
29%
102%
54%
70%
54% 58%
Milk and dairy Logs and timber products
Livestock, meat and wool
Oter agriculture and fish
Petroleum and coal
Building material, fertiliser and
other minterals
Manufactured and retail goods,
steel and aluminium
Waste General freight Total
percentage growth between 2012 and 2042
The predicted growth is lower than the 2008 forecast
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2008 forecast
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
2008 2042
Freight Forecast from 2008 and 2014 tonnes
2012 2031
74%
increase
from
2008
58%
increase
from
2012
2014 forecast
Growth will be uneven across the country
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100
Auckland
Canterbury
Waikato
Bay of Plenty
Northland
Southland
Manawatu
Hawke’s Bay
Otago
Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough
Wellington
Taranaki
West Coast
Gisborne
20 40 60 80 100
Ori
gin
Freight Movements 2012 and 2042 million tonnes
De
stinatio
n
2012
2042
0
The study is available at
www.transport.govt.nz/research/nationalfreightdemandsstudy