National Integrated Drought Information SystemSoutheast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahooche-Flint River Basin25 September 2012

OutlineWelcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate

ConsortiumCurrent drought status and how we got here – David

Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate CenterStreamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGSSummary of lake conditions – Bailey CraneSeasonal outlooks – David ZierdenStreamflow forecasts – Todd Hamill, SE River Forecast

CenterNew Agricultural Drought Products – Jon CaseSummary and Discussion

Current drought status from Drought Monitor

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

7 Day Precipitation Totals

Cumulative Rainfall Deficits

Past 30 days

Since Oct. 1

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages

Current:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Previous Brief:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows

Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with

historical streamflow for day shown

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Current:

Previous brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)

Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)

Current Streamflows

Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)

Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Streamflows

Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Groundwater Status

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Miller County, GA(Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Summary of lake conditions in the ACF

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Near Surface Winds

Multivariate ENSO Index

1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook

1 Month

3 Month

Fall Rainfall Climatology

U.S. Drought Outlook

Tropical Outlook

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

1-Month Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

September 24th – October 24th

2012

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

September 24th – December 24th

2012Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

52%25%

23%

78%11%11%

54%35%

11%

55%36%

9%

69%14%

17%

Week of May 29th, 2012

Week of June 5th, 2012

Week of June 12th, 2012

Week of June 19th, 2012

Note precipitation has removed drought stress over most of region even though hydrologic drought is still high in central Georgia

Note high temperatures and lack of rainfall has produced drought stress in North Alabama

Week of June 26th, 2012

Week of July 3rd, 2012

Note high temperatures and lack of rainfall has produced continual drought stress on corn. Final yield data indicates that North Alabama even though never above D2 drought category had substantial harm.

Weekly Soil Moisture Measurement and vegetative Index (LIS)

Summary• Drought persists in most of the basin in AL and

GA, which is classified as in severe to exceptional drought in the latest drought monitor

• Rainfall during the previous 7 days has been 2 inches or less for the entire basin.

• Streamflows and groundwater levels, especially in the southern part of the basin, continue to be still critically low

Summary• The 5-day rainfall forecast calls for less than 0.5

inches across the basin, which indicates that drought will continue to worsen in the near term

• Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies and models still indicate the likelihood that El Niño will develop during the fall, with the 1-3 month precipitation outlook calling for above normal rainfall and the drought outlook calling for some improvement of drought conditions in the basin

Summary• The 1-month and 3-month streamflow forecasts

have not changed much since the last briefing, with all forecasts for below normal streamflow levels and a greater than 50% probability of below normal streamflows for all locations in the 3-month forecast

• New agricultural drought products show the impacts of drought on crops as well as the amount of water crops demand for irrigation

ReferencesSpeakers

David Zierden, FSUTony Gotvald, USGSBailey Crane, US ACEJeff Dobur, SERFCJon Case, NASA

ModeratorKeith Ingram, UF/SECC

Additional informationGeneral drought information

http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu

General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/

Streamflow monitoring & forecastinghttp://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/

Groundwater monitoringhttp://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Thank you!

Next briefing 9 October 2012, 1:00 pm EST

Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://www.drought.gov/portal/server.pt/community/acfrb

Please send comments and suggestions to:ktingram@ufl.edu