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NATIONAL PROGRAM NATIONAL PROGRAM ASSESSMENTASSESSMENT
AIR QUALITY AIR QUALITY (203) (203)
GLOBAL CHANGE GLOBAL CHANGE (204)(204)
OUTLINEOUTLINE
•
OUR CHARGE•
THE ASSESSMENT PANEL
•
CRITICAL ARS RESEARCH NEEDS FOR THE FUTURE
•
WHAT WE DID AND FOUND
Assessment AudienceAssessment Audience
•
Customers, partners, and stakeholders
•
ARS managers•
ARS scientists
•
OMB
Overall Goal:Overall Goal: Assess Performance and ImpactAssess Performance and Impact
•
Provide feedback to customers, partners, and stakeholders focusing on accomplishments relative to promises made
•
Evaluate progress of the current National Program
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Provide guidance on research directions related to potential goals for the next program cycle
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Evaluate the performance and impact of the research programs within the Agency and relative to OMB perspectives
ASSESSMENT PANELASSESSMENT PANEL (who we were)(who we were)
•
Academics•
Agri-business
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Other Federal Research Agency
•
Specialties covered air quality, particulate emissions, remote sensing, greenhouse gas studies, ecosystem analysis, soil chemistry, land use
WHY ARS RESEARCH WHY ARS RESEARCH IS NEEDEDIS NEEDED
THE CHANGING WORLD VIEWTHE CHANGING WORLD VIEWAND AND
THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURE THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURE RESEARCHRESEARCH
CRITICAL CONSIDERATIONSCRITICAL CONSIDERATIONS
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CLIMATE CHANGE•
ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
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LAND USE CHANGE
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FOOD SECURITY•
ENERGY SECURITY
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LANDSCAPE INTEGRITY
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ECONOMICS•
POLICY
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FAMILY VALUES
Measured Surface Temperature the past 150 years
Warming greatest at
high latitudes2007 was 82007 was 8thth warmest warmest year on record for lower year on record for lower 48 States of USA48 States of USA
Amplification of warming Amplification of warming due to decrease of due to decrease of albedoalbedo (melting of snow and ice)(melting of snow and ice)
Globally, 7 of the 8 Globally, 7 of the 8 warmest years have warmest years have occurred since 2001occurred since 2001
Published by AAAS T. P. Barnett et al., Science 319, 1080 -1083 (2008)
Map showing averaging regions over which SWE/P and JFM Tmin were determined
(After Milly, P.C.D., K.A. Dunne, A.V. Vecchia, Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate, Nature, 438, 347-350, 2005.)
Model-Projected Changes in Annual Runoff, 2041-2060 Percentage change relative to 1900-1970 baseline. Any color indicates that >66% of models agree on sign of change; diagonal hatching indicates >90% agreement.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Fert
ilize
r N (T
gN
)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Year
Synthetic BNF Crop Res Animal Waste
Fertilier N Use Projections1950-2020
Estimate of Global N2 O Emissions Directly From Agricultural Fields
NOX
Crop Residue
SyntheticFixed N
BiologicalN-fixation
NH3
AnimalManures
N2 O~2.2
N input and N2 O Production in Tg N
N2 O
Nitrification NH4+ NO2
- NO3
Denitrification NO3 N2 O N2
Soy Bean
Corn30
6583
1 2
NO
Estimates of Global N2 O Emissions From Animal Production
NH3 ~22Tg N2 O ~2 TgNOX ~3Tg
Organic Waste~120Tg N
NH4+ NO2
- NO3Mineralization Nitrification
NO3- N2 O N2Denitrification
NO N2 O
NH3
Estimate of Global N2 O Emissions Indirectly Derived from AGN InputN2 O Indirect = N2 O(G) + N2 O(L) + N2 O(S)
NOX~13 Tg N
NH39Tg N N2 O
~2.2 Tg N
NO3
NO3
N2 ON2
AIR QUALITY TRENDS
PREVENT AND CONTROL INVASIVE SPECIES
Multi-Scaled Observations for C & N accounting and GHG emission studies
Integration
inputsModel
Predictions/
Validation New Site
Research DirectionRes
earch
Dire
ction
- Site description/Land use characterization- Soil/Climate/Landscape characteristics
- Driving variable database maps
Needs
Projections
ResearchDirection
Validation
Acquisition
Regional
Modular TraceGas Model
ExtensiveSites
Field Soil and Vegetation Data
IntensiveSites
Local
Local
Plot
C and GHGFlux
Plot Plot
PlotProject
ProjectRegional Regional
Project
RegionalProject
GeographicInformation
RemotelySensed Data
- Process studies
ENVIRONMENT:Energy BalanceGHGLand UseBiodiversityWaterNutrientsInvasive Biota
SOCIAL:Food vs FuelAestheticsEconomicJobs/TrainingEquityCertification
FUTURE CHALLENGE: BIOENERGY?LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS
Expected BioEnergy
Production 2030 (FAO 2006)
0 200 400 600 800
Organic Wastes
Dung
Agricultural Residues
Forest Residues
Energy Crops (marginal lands)
Energy Crops (current agri. lands)
Total
Total (more likely)
[Exajoules]
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
Current ethanol production(Brazil + USA)
Replacement of 10% totalgasoline consumption
Replacement of 10% totalcrude oil consumption
World's Agriculture Area
31 million hectares
123 million hectares
1 billion hectares
7.4 million hectares
Land Use to Ethanol
RESEARCH CHALLENGESRESEARCH CHALLENGES
ENVIRONMENTAL
CLIMATE
CHANGE
LAND
USE
CHANGE
POLICY
CROSSCROSS--CUTTING ISSUESCUTTING ISSUESENVIRONMENTAL
CLIMATE
CHANGE
LAND
USE
CHANGE
LIVELIHOODS
POLICY
FOOD SECURITY
ENERGY SECURITY
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
INTERSECTION OF INTERSECTION OF THESE ISSUES PROVIDE THESE ISSUES PROVIDE
A SET OF NEW A SET OF NEW RESEARCH RESEARCH
OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIES
THE NP ASSESSMENTTHE NP ASSESSMENT
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How has the ARS dealt with these challenges under current objectives?
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Has the research provided useful products?
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What are the needs for the future?
National Program 203 Air Quality
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Particulate
Emissions (Medium)•
Ammonia
and Ammonium Ammonia
Emissions (Medium-High)•
Malodorous
Compounds (High)
•
Ozone Impacts (Medium)•
Pesticides and Other
Synthetic
Organic
Chemicals
(Low)
NATIONAL PROGRAM 204 – Global Change
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Carbon Cycle and Carbon Storage (Medium-High)
•
Trace Gases (Medium-High)•
Agricultural Ecosystem Impacts (Medium-High)
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Changes in Weather and the Water Cycle at Farm, Ranch, and Regional Scales (Medium)
Assessment FindingsAssessment Findings
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Number of high quality publications•
Development and deployment of innovative research techniques and models
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Creation of partnerships among agencies, research institutions, and communities
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Implementation of finding among partner organizations
Assessment FindingsAssessment Findings
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Studies of multiple stress effects on agricultural systems
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Integrated studies of C-N-Water•
Better process understanding of air pollutants on crops
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Agricultural management practices to reduce the impact on air quality
Overall RecommendationsOverall Recommendations•
Integrated research plan
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Greater integration and coordination of studies
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Hypothesis driven research•
Innovative research approaches to address multiple scales of challenges
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Networks and partnerships to leverage resources
•
Synthesis efforts
SUMMARYSUMMARY
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Challenges and Opportunities for the ARS in coming decades
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Strategic planning of research needs to meet societal and scientific challenges
•
Acknowledge and incorporate multi- dimensional issues in research planning
and implementation
