National Science Foundation:

NSF and Space Weather

Rich BehnkeDivision of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences

June 21, 2011

Space Weather at NSFNSF Role:

• Fundamental research and modeling

• Ground-based facilities

• Education

• Interagency Partner

The Space Weather System: Systems within Systems

The intellectual framework of the system view enables transferable concepts across systems and disciplines to advance and facilitate progress in understanding our whole sun-earth system

The system view engages the entire community by providing broad unifying goals

The system view provides new insight into geospace and exposes gaps in knowledge

SDO/AIA Movie Courtesy of Ralph Seguin (LMSAL)

SDO/AIA Fe XIV 211Å ~2MKSDO/AIA Fe XII 193Å ~1.3MKSDO/AIA Fe IX 171Å ~1MK

De Pontieu et al., 2011, Science, 331, 55

Those disturbances are the signature of mass being inserted into the solar corona - rooted in very fast moving spicules abundantly observed in the lower atmosphere, likely driven by small-scale magnetic reconnection

From SDO/AIA we see that coronal loops show disturbances propagating at speeds often > 100km/s

Shrinking Thermosphere Linked to Low levels of UV Radiation

• Record low temperature and density were primarily caused by unusually low levels of solar radiation at the extreme-ultraviolet level (not increased carbon dioxide)

• NCAR results using the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model.

• Lowering of the thermosphere height and density means that satellites can more easily maintain their orbits., but space debris becomes more of an issue.

Thermospheric density has dropped 31%, temperature 41 degrees K in last prolonged solar minimum.

GPS Navigation Position Errors due to SEDSTypical positioning errors

are a few meters but during storm enhanced density (SEDS) events errors can be 15-25

meter. Oct. 29 Oct. 30

Oct. 31

Storm Enhanced Density (SED)

First Large-Scale, Physics-Based Space Weather Model Transition into Operation

The model will provide forecasters with a one-to-four day advance warning of high speed streams of solar plasma and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs).

These streams from the Sun may severely disrupt or damage space- and ground-based communications systems, and pose hazards to satellite operations.

Having key team members co-located during the development phase enabled on going discussions between scientists and forecasters that enhanced the model and led to NOAA’s decision to bring it into operations.

The Resolute Bay Incoherent Scatter Radar

SuperDARN

Old Data AMPERE: Standard AMPERE: High

10/01/2002 11:55-12:05 11/25/2009 08:45-08:55 11/24/2009 18:27-18:37

Data acquisition up and running!

Different colors denote different satellites

Side-by-side comparison of data acquired in 10 minutes. Old: 200 s/sample

Standard AMPERE: complete coverage with ~1° lat. res. 20 s/sample

High rate AMPERE: ~ 0.1° lat. res. 2 s/sample

TLM data from all satellites

Perfect First Launch! RAX

Nov 19 2010 Kodiak, AK Minotaur IV, STP-S26

First science data! Taken 12/10/2010

Next up for launch: Fall 2011

NASA ELaNa-sponsored launch on NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) mission Delta II rocket, Vandenberg Air Force Base 824 km circular, sun-synchronous orbit

(10:30 local-time) DICE & RAX-2

Construction to begin in the Spring /Summer of 2011 First light in 2018/2019 A 4-meter diameter main mirror, combined with the latest in computer and adaptive optics technology, will give the ATST the sharpest views ever of the surface of the Sun.We are positioned for a new era of discovery about the Sun and the subtle ways it affects life on Earth. To do this we must observe the Sun and its magnetic activities with the high spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions that will be made possible with ATST.

Advanced Technology Solar Telescope

Summer Schools

• AMISR Summer School – learn how to operate a radar!

• CISM Summer School– The Center for Integrated Space- Weather Modeling (CISM) conducts a

summer school for 2 weeks each year to introduce graduate students to the issues and problems of space weather modeling.

Other Educational Opportunities

• CAREER• Faculty Development in Space

Sciences (FDSS)• AGS Postdoctoral Research

Fellowship Program• GRF (Graduate Research

Fellowships)• Research Experiences for

Teachers (RET)

Some New Opportunities at NSF

• CaMRA – a Directorate-wide initiative The overarching goal of CaMRA (Creating a More Disaster Resilient

America) is to catalyze basic research efforts at NSF in hazard-related science, engineering, risk assessment and decision making in order to improve forecasting and prediction of natural and made-made hazards, mitigate their effects, and prevent and recover from disasters

• Faculty development in Space Science Create tenure track positions within the university system.

Returns (one or two positions) in FY2012.

NSF – Partners in a multi-agency effort

• Collaborations with NASA– Community Coordinated Modeling Center– Possible new FY2012 Modeling Effort

• Collaborations with the DOD– Possible joint initiative with AFOSR (and NOAA) in scintillations– Continued collaborations with ONR (GAIM project)

• The National Space Weather Program– Organized through the office of the Federal Coordinator for

Meteorology– Partners with NASA, NOAA, DOD, DOI, State, FAA, DOE– NSF, NOAA, NASA and DOD are co-chairs

• Next: International cooperation – already doing quite a bit (Europe, South America, Japan, working with China) but we will expand this.

Space Weather at NSF• We are making remarkable

progress in understanding, observations and modeling that dynamic space between the Sun and the Earth that we call GEOSPACE

• We are actively engaged in the education of the next generation of space scientists

• We are catalysts for interagency efforts