NATIONAL SECURITY

AND THE THREAT OF

CLIMATE CHANGEDavid Catarious, Ph.D.

Bill KratzCNA

Presented to: Society of American Military Engineers

25 February 2009

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• “What adverse conditions are climate changes likely to produce around the world?”

IF TRENDS CONTINUE….ADVERSE?

• “What are the ways in which these conditions may affect America’s

national security interests?”

CAN TRENDS AFFECT SECURITY?

• “What actions should the nation take to address the national security consequences of climate change?”

WHAT CAN WE (NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY) DO?

Climate Change as a National Security Risk

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• CNA study:

– Advisory Board: 11 Retired Flag and General Officers

– Director: Ms. Sherri GoodmanGeneral Counsel to CNAFormer Deputy Undersecretary of Defense

(Environmental Security)

– Staff: CNA

– Review Panel

• Briefings: Scientists, Government Officials (US, UN & UK), Industry

US Military Leaders Examine Climate Change

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Military Advisory Board (MAB)

GEN Gordon R. Sullivan (Ret.), Chairman

ADM Frank “Skip” Bowman (Ret.)

Lt Gen Lawrence P. Farrell Jr. (Ret.)

VADM Paul G. Gaffney II (Ret.)

GEN Paul Kern (Ret.)

ADM T. Joseph Lopez (Ret.)

ADM Donald “Don” L. Pilling (Ret.)

ADM Joseph W. Prueher (Ret.)

VADM Richard H. Truly (Ret.)

Gen Charles “Chuck” Wald (Ret.)

Gen Anthony C. “Tony” Zinni (Ret.)

Sherri Goodman, Executive Director

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“ “MAB Perspective on Scientific Debate

We never have 100% certainty.

If you wait until you have 100% certainty,

something bad is going to happen on the battlefield.

That’s something we know.

— GEN Sullivan

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Food

Threats to Natural & Human Systems

Case in Point: Darfur

ThreatsWater

Health Weather

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Threats to Natural & Human Systems

Case in Point: SomaliaFood

ThreatsWater

Health Weather

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Findings

• Projected climate change poses a

serious threat to America’s national security

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Findings

• Projected climate change poses a

serious threat to America’s national security

• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world

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Findings

• Projected climate change poses a

serious threat to America’s national security

• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world

• Projected climate change will add to tensions

even in stable regions of the world

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Climate Change Presents Many Threats

Image courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory

2003 European heat wave killed

more than

35,000 people

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Findings

• Projected climate change poses a

serious threat to America’s national security

• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world

• Projected climate change will add to tensions

even in stable regions of the world

• Climate change, national security,

and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges

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An Inter-related Set of Challenges

EnergyDependence

NationalSecurity

ClimateChange

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Arctic Ice Cap21 Sep 2005

Regional Impacts: Arctic

Source: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center

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Arctic Ice Cap14 Sep 2007

Regional Impacts: Arctic

Source: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center

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“ “The nation’s icebreaking capability has

diminished substantiallyand is at risk of being

unable to support our national interests in the Arctic regions.

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Bases Threatened by Rising Sea Levels

Diego Garcia: Major

logistics hub for U.S. and

Britain

Average Elevation:

4 Feet

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Creates Engagement Opportunities

Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2005:

Support Operations &

Capacity Building

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Recommendations: U.S. Must Act

1. Integrate climate change into national security strategy

2. Play a stronger national and international role

3. Commit to global partnerships that build capacity and resiliency in less developed nations

4. U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) should use its buying power to advance clean energy solutions

5. DoD should assess now the impact over the next 30-40 years of projected climate changes on military installations worldwide.

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Security and Climate.cna.org

NATIONAL SECURITY

AND THE THREAT OF

CLIMATE CHANGEDavid Catarious, Ph.D.

Bill KratzCNA

SAME Monthly Meeting

25 February 2009