NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Seminar on Shifting Paradigms: Innovative Statistical Frameworks to Meet Global Challenges RAVirola/18 February

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDSeminar on Shifting Paradigms: Innovative Statistical Frameworks to Meet Global Challenges

RAVirola/18 February 2011

1

Presentation by ROMULO A. VIROLA

Secretary GeneralNational Statistical Coordination Board, The Philippines

Organized by the United Nations Statistics Division 42nd Session of the United Nations Statistical Commission

Conference Room 1 (TNLB)18 February 2011

Seminar on Shifting Paradigms: Innovative Statistical Frameworks To Meet Global Challenges

Session 2: Innovative Frameworks for Social/Household Statistics

Panel Discussion on Emerging Statistical Frameworks



2

Outline of the Presentation

I. Introduction

II. A Developing Country Perspective: View from the Philippines

III. Some Premises/Some Questions/Some Answers/Some Challenges



3

I. Introduction

• Social statistics lagging behind economic statistics

• But social progress is just as important as economic progress

• Therefore, there is an urgent need to move the agenda on the development of social statistics forward



4

I. Introduction

• Actually, there are many past and present efforts to further develop social statistics/measures of well-being

UN/UNSD initiativesExperts Group MeetingsHandbooks/International

Recommendations/MNSDSGlobal Fora ( 3rd Global Forum on Gender

Statistics in Manila)City Groups ( Sienna Group, Washington

Group on Disability Statistics)Friends Of the ChairInventories/Knowledge databases

Initiatives by other international organizationsOECD (World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge

& Policy)/Istanbul Declaration, METAGORA)



5

I. Introduction

• Actually, there are many past and present efforts to develop social statistics

Regional initiativesUNESCAP Advisory Group on Social StatisticsASEAN Statistical Report on MDG Indicators

National initiativesBhutan’s Gross National Happiness



6

I. Introduction• So, why has the development of social statistics

not caught up with that of economic statistics?

We have not been able to develop a comprehensive and widely-used framework for social statistics like the SNA for economic statistics

We have general agreement on the concept of economic growth but not on social progress/genuine progress of society?

Varying cultureVarying extent of social problemsVarying social concernsVarying social priorities

o We may agree on health and even education

o But on governance, VAW, poverty, etc.?



7

I. Introduction

• And while the HDI was an attempt to combine economic and social progress, it has not gained universal acceptance ( partly because of the lack of wide and proper consultation in its development )

• Other failed attempts? Sienna Group/MNSDS?

• A single unifying framework like the SNA not possible for social statistics?

• But surely we can move forward! How?



8


• While global initiatives can continue, in developing statistical frameworks on social statistics, we need an approach that recognizes and appreciates

differences in culture/social problems and concerns/priorities among countries

Varying levels of statistical development Resource constraints of developing countries

• Thus, a global framework may not work, but regional/subregional approaches that build on homogeneity within the region/subregion, may work.



9


• And a national approach or a bottom-up approach instead of a top-down approach might work best, might be most practical and most practicable

Fosters national ownership Enhances acceptability Increases chances for national funding

support Although international comparability could be

an issue

• Possibilities: Incorporate the framework on well-being/social statistics in the country’s NSDS (PARIS21)

Improved/Expanded MNSDS? National Social Indicators? National Development Indicators?



10

GEOGRAPHICAL:

2000 city and municipal level poverty estimates • NSCB initiative funded by the World Bank (WB)• Used the Elbers, Lanjouw, and Lanjouw (ELL) SAE

methodology developed by the WB.• Collaborated with consultants from the academe • Merged data from the Family Income and Expenditure

Survey (FIES), the Labor Force Survey (LFS), and the Census of Population and Housing (CPH), which were all conducted in 2000.

• Produced the first set of SAE of poverty for the year 2000 at the city and municipal levels

1. Poverty Statistics

1.1 Small area estimates of poverty

INNOVATIVE FRAMEWORKS FOR SOCIAL/HOUSEHOLD STATISTICS IN THE PHILIPPINES AMIDST RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS




11

GEOGRAPHICAL:

2003 intercensal city and municipal level poverty estimates

• Updated 2000 SAE poverty estimates at the city and municipal level to 2003

• Developed an updating methodology in collaboration with consultants from the academe

• Merged/Used Survey data for 2003, and census data for 2000

• Estimates have been used in the Conditional Cash Transfer program – now the major poverty reduction program of government


INNOVATIVE FRAMEWORKS FOR SOCIAL/HOUSEHOLD STATISTICS IN THE PHILIPPINES





12

SECTORAL:

Poverty statistics for the basic/marginalized sectors

•Funded by UNDP•Merged data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) and the Labor Force Survey (LFS)•The NSCB generated 2006 poverty statistics for the ff. basic sectors:

i) Women v) Farmersii) Youth vi) Fishermeniii) Children vii) Workers in the formal

sectoriv) Senior citizens and migrant workers

viii) Poor population livingin urban areas






13

•Provided a definition of the Filipino middle-income class in two ways: based on income cut-off using cluster analysis and based on socio-economic characteristics, through regression analysis.

•Uses merged FIES and LFS data

•Generated estimates of the count of the middle-income class


1.2 Middle-income class




14

•Pioneering effort of the NSCB started in 2007 on the development of a methodology to estimate the Philippine Happiness Index (PHI)

•Main feature of the PHI - It is not normative; the methodology for the compilation of the PHI allows individuals to define/identify their domains of happiness.

•Has conducted nonrandom surveys on various groups to validate the conceptual and statistical framework including among low-income families.

2. Philippine Happiness Index (PHI)




15

•In 2004, the NSCB developed a methodology for a provincial level Good Governance Index (GGI) incorporating indicators on economic, political and administrative governance.

•Goal is to produce GGI estimates before elections

•Methodology is very dependent on/constrained by availability of data support

•Updated in 2007 and 2010, to include a municipal level GGI

3. Good Governance Index ( at subnational level)




16

•Now includes a Voters’ Index meant to assess whether voters are voting for candidates who have achieved a high GGI

•To rank or not to rank – ranking creates media interest/controversies, but academics are more concerned with statistically significant differences

•“Results” show that election results are not in line with the GGI

•And we have received threatening letters from politicians

3. Good Governance Index




17

•The NSCB developed a methodology for the construction of hunger index and the establishment of benchmark information on hunger, upon request of policymakers.

•Aims to provide an objective measure of the severity of hunger in the population

•Can be used to compare regions/provinces and pinpoint areas with severe hunger for purposes of identifying areas that require priority attention for hunger mitigation programs and services.

4. Hunger Index




18

•Developed the Philippine Framework for the Development of Environment Statistics (PFDES)

•Publication of the Compendium of Philippine Environment Statistics

•Developed a Statistical Framework and Indicator System in Measuring/Monitoring Climate Change Impacts – but has not been populated with data

5. Climate change




19

•NSCB efforts to quantify the contribution of women in the economy, including unpaid work

•Goal is to develope a satellite account linked with the Philippine System of National Accounts (PSNA)

•Using heroic assumptions from Time Use Surveys, generated the following:

i) GDP/GNP by sexii) Adjusted GDP/GNP by sex, accounting for the

value of unpaid work

6. Gender Statistics 6.1 Measurement of the economic contribution of

women




20

•For the first time, the 2008 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) included a separate module called the Women’s Safety Module.

•Probes into women’s experiences of violence, particularly on physical violence and sexual violence.

•Likewise, information was collected on spousal violence - covering all forms of VAW:

1) physical violence; 2) sexual violence; 3) emotional violence; and 4) economic violence

Note: The 3rd and 4th forms of VAW were grouped together in the survey as “other forms of violence.

6. Gender Statistics 6.2 Survey-based data on violence against women




21

•Funded by UNICEF

•Cognizant of the need for the country’s development agenda to prioritize policies and programs geared towards the development of children, the NSCB generated the following:

i) Child Development Index (CDI);

ii) Rights-based CDI to stress the critical role of the duty bearers in the development of children; and

iii) CDI by life stages to capture the situation/challenges in the development of children.

7. Development Indexes for Children by Life Stages




22

III. Some Premises/Some Questions/ Some Answers/Some Challenges

SOME PREMISES

• Official statisticians need to be relevant to all stakeholders – statistics must be useful to society!

• Official statisticians should maintain a “state of preparedness” (Statistics Canada) to immediately and effectively respond to emerging needs/demands of stakeholders!

• Official statisticians need capacity building in the measurement of these emerging concerns

• National statistical systems lack/suffer from dwindling resources

• Official statisticians are still in a dilemma on our role in the measurement of well-being/happiness/governance, etc.



23


SOME PREMISES• There is increasing interest by the international

community on the measurement of genuine progress of society

• Official statisticians have strong competition in the delivery of statistical products and services

Google (CPI) Private sector information brokers Research institutions Even international organizations

• National statistical systems have the comparative advantage in institutionalizing and producing consistent time series of data points not only at the national but also at subnational levels versus the adhoc initiatives of competitors



24


• Some Questions:

Should official statisticians actively engage in the measurement of emerging “concerns” such as well-being/happiness/democratic governance/ women’s contribution to the economy? Is it our mandate?

Should the UN Statistical Commission provide more specific policy guidance on the involvement of national statistical systems in these emerging areas of concern?

Should the UN Statistics Division and other international bodies allocate more resources for methodological development, expert group meetings, creation of knowledge base, conduct of global fora, and capacity building in these emerging areas of concern?



25

SOME CHALLENGES TO DATA PRODUCERS/OFFICIAL STATISTICIANS:

Challenge 1: Identification/Prioritization and Institutionalization of the innovative/emerging statistical framework to ensure sustainability of efforts and maximize return on investments in statistics

Challenge 2: Choice of indicators – is there social progress when a society has high economic growth, high life expectancy but also high suicide rates?

Challenge 3: Improved Statistical Coordination within the national statistical system to ensure that quality data support is provided to the framework




26


Challenge 4: Effective Statistical Information Management

that will give life to the framework

• merging survey data files• generating panel data• linking survey and administrative

records (Everaers and Van der Laan)

• Providing greater and easier public access to data

• Use of international standards (SDMX)




27


Challenge 5: Effective/Adaptive Dissemination and Communication Strategies so that the framework will be appreciated and used in decision-making

• Use of visualization techniques/Hans Rossling

• Laymanize statistical reports• Produce metadata• Development of effective communication

plan when introducing new/revising old statistical frameworks to maintain trust and credibility

Challenge 6: Balancing supply and demand for

statistics, amidst resource constraints, while maintaining a “state of preparedness”




28


Challenge 7: Creating demand for our products and services

• Enhancing statistical literacy• Statistical capacity building of users• Managing user/stakeholder expectations• Documenting actual policy uses

Challenge 8: Getting policymakers to invest in statistics




29


• Some Questions: Should official statisticians actively engage in

the measurement of emerging “concerns” such as well-being/happiness/democratic governance/ women’s contribution to the economy? Is it our mandate?

Should the UN Statistical Commission provide more specific policy guidance on the involvement of national statistical systems in these emerging areas of concern?

Should the UN Statistics Division and other international bodies allocate more resources for methodological development, expert group meetings, creation of knowledge base, conduct of global fora, and capacity building in these emerging areas of concern?



30


• Some Answers:

YES

YES

YES

TO ENHANCE OUR RELEVANCE, TO ENSURE OUR SURVIVAL!



31

Thank you!

URL: http://www.nscb.gov.ph

e-mail: [email protected]

Documents

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Seminar on Shifting Paradigms: Innovative Statistical Frameworks to Meet Global Challenges RAVirola/18 February