National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Fourth International Conference on Agriculture Statistics Beijing – People’s Republic of China – October 22-24,

National Water Resources Plan of BrazilNational Water Resources Plan of Brazil

Fourth International Conference Fourth International Conference on Agriculture Statisticson Agriculture StatisticsBeijing – People’s Republic of China – Beijing – People’s Republic of China – October 22-24, 2007October 22-24, 2007

Alberto J. PalomboAlberto J. Palombo

The importance of developing demand-The importance of developing demand-side agricultural statistics for side agricultural statistics for sustainable resource planning and sustainable resource planning and management:management:

A reflection from the perspective A reflection from the perspective of the National Water Resources of the National Water Resources Plan (PNRH) of BrazilPlan (PNRH) of Brazil


DisclaimerDisclaimer

The speaker does not represent anyone or any agency. The opinions expressed here are his own and do not reflect, necessarily, the positions of the Government of Brazil, the National Water Plan of Brazil, the Inter-American Development Bank, or anyone else.However, the reflections made herein are based on the experience of making a national water plan (they are not that many around yet!)Thus, if you disagree, please see me and we will work it out! And, if you agree, see me, too. We have a lot of people to convince!


Water (and people) issues in the worldWater (and people) issues in the world


China, USA, India, Brazil, France are among the key players. 5 countries account for:

50% of world’s GDP40% of world’s agricultural GDP 65% of world’s agricultural population50% of world’s food production (calories)50% of word’s food consumption (calories)40% of world’s agricultural exports40% of world agricultural imports

Source: Kasnakoglu, FAO, ICAS-III, 2004

Big countries, big agriculture – Big challenges, big numbers

Big water users!Big water users!


Where we are and what is the outlook for 2025



Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006


















Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006; U.S Census Bureau, 2007

Pop > 6,626,503,990 Pop > 6,626,503,990 (by the time ICAS-4 finishes)(by the time ICAS-4 finishes)

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popclockworld.htmlhttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popclockworld.html

(It was 6,626,116,196 when ICAS-4 started on Monday)(It was 6,626,116,196 when ICAS-4 started on Monday)



Source: U.S Census Bureau, 2007






Half of all poor people live in the driest areas of the world. By 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in areas with absolute water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world’s population could be living under water stress conditions (FAO, 2007).Despite this fact, a significant portion of future development is foreseen to take place in these areas.

Additional pressures on regional ecosystems Additional pressures on regional ecosystems Requires new ways for managing water to Requires new ways for managing water to

accommodate multiple uses accommodate multiple uses (agriculture, energy, and human consumption).(agriculture, energy, and human consumption).



The current expansion of the agricultural frontier puts additional pressures on available water resources beyond the carrying capacity of regional ecosystems.

Much of the answer to water scarcity can be foundMuch of the answer to water scarcity can be foundin farming-related techniques harvesting more in farming-related techniques harvesting more

rainfall, reducing waste in irrigation, increasingrainfall, reducing waste in irrigation, increasingcrop productivity, and in changing crop andcrop productivity, and in changing crop anddietary choices (FAO, 2007).dietary choices (FAO, 2007).



Burning Question:

How do we measure food security effects of How do we measure food security effects of water scarcity under that scenario? water scarcity under that scenario? Are agricultural statistics capturing theAre agricultural statistics capturing the information needed to cope with it? information needed to cope with it?


Water Issues in BrazilWater Issues in Brazil



BrazilBrazil


Agriculture72.53%

Human Consumption

18.03%

Industrial9.44%

Water in BrazilWater in Brazil

Water uses in Brazil add up to 46.6 Km3 per year, distribuited as follows:

This represents 0.8111% of the total surface water availability in the country (5745 Km3).

SIH/ANEEL, 1999, Palombo 2003


Water Availability Water Availability by Basins:by Basins:

SIH/ANEEL, 1999, Palombo 2003

PopulationAmazônica 4206 6,687,893Tocantins 372 3,503,365Atlântico Norte / Nordeste 285 31,253,068São Francisco 90 11,734,966Atlântico Leste 137 35,880,413Paraguai (**) 41 1,820,569Paraná 347 49,924,540Uruguai (**) 131 3,837,972Atlântico Sudeste 136 12,427,377

Km3 per year: 5745 157,070,163

Surface Water Availability

Amazônica73.21%

Paraná6.04%

Atlântico Norte / Nordeste4.96%

Tocantins6.48%

São Francisco1.57%

Atlântico Leste2.38%

Paraguai (**)0.71%

Atlântico Sudeste2.37%

Uruguai (**)2.28%

Amazônica

Tocantins

Atlântico Norte / Nordeste

São Francisco

Atlântico Leste

Paraguai (**)

Paraná

Uruguai (**)

Atlântico Sudeste

73%73% of freshwater is of freshwater is available where Brazil available where Brazil has has 5%5% of its of its population, population, whereas just whereas just 27%27% is is available where it has available where it has 95%95% of the population. of the population.


Water Availability:Water Availability:

ANA, 2002


Water and Population Water and Population Density:Density:

ANA, 2002

More than More than 100 million100 million Brazilians live within Brazilians live within 100 Km100 Km of the of the coastline. coastline.

This means more This means more people, water is more people, water is more or less the same, or less the same, but but its water quality is its water quality is much worse.much worse.


How does Brazil manage the water resource?How does Brazil manage the water resource?


How does Brazil manage the water resource?How does Brazil manage the water resource?

Given the importance of energy, agriculture, and Given the importance of energy, agriculture, and sanitation (among other uses), there is a need to sanitation (among other uses), there is a need to

manage water among competing uses.manage water among competing uses.


Water Uses by BasinWater Uses by Basin

The keyword is The keyword is COMPETINGCOMPETING uses. uses.

GEO-Brasil – UNEP/ANA, 2007


Implementation of Policy Instruments

Originating Authority

Basin Entity

Policy Formulation

EntitiesDirect

ResposibilityLevel

ANACNRH MMA / SRH

Basin AgencyBasin Committee

National

State Water Mgmt Entity

CERH State Secretariat

State

Basin AgencyBasin Committee

National Water Resources Management SystemNational Water Resources Management System

Put in practice

Think, plan, legislate

PNRH

Think, plan, legislate


National Water Resources Management SystemNational Water Resources Management System

National Water National Water Resources PolicyResources Policy

Basin = Basic Territorial Unit for Planning and Policy Implementation

Inte

gra

ted

Wate

rIn

teg

rate

d W

ate

r

Resou

rces M

an

ag

em

en

tR

esou

rces M

an

ag

em

en

t Implementation ofImplementation ofthe National Waterthe National WaterResources PolicyResources Policy

State WaterState WaterResources PolicyResources Policy

ImplementationImplementationof the State Waterof the State WaterResources PolicyResources Policy

Fed

era

lS

tate

MMA-SRHMMA-SRH

ANAANA

State EntityState Entity State EntityState Entity

CNRHCNRH

CERHCERH State EntityState Entity

Federal EntityFederal EntityBasin Committee

Basin Committee

Basin AgencyBasin Agency

Basin AgencyBasin Agency

Palombo (2002)


The National Water Resources The National Water Resources PlanPlan


More than just a Plan, it is a PACT!More than just a Plan, it is a PACT!

In Brazil, water resources plans are the result of a three-way pactthree-way pact involving the government, the users, and the civil society. Brazil opted for the social negotiation social negotiation model taking over the former command and control model. In reality, the intent is to achieve the empowerment of the parties (social control and responsibility)(social control and responsibility)All this falls within the National Water National Water Resources Management System (SINGREH)Resources Management System (SINGREH)


What do we pretend to achieve with the implementation of the PNRH? Three dimensions....

an improvement of availability, of surface waters and groundwater in quantitative and qualitative terms;

a reduction of real and potential conflicts in water uses, as well as the mitigation of adverse effects of extreme hydrological events;

The perception of conservation of water resources as a relevant social and environmental value.

Strategic Objectives of the PNRHStrategic Objectives of the PNRH


Dividing the Country in Dividing the Country in Hydrographical Regions:Hydrographical Regions:

The country was The country was organized in organized in 12 12 hydrographical hydrographical regionsregions, in accordance , in accordance to their most relevant to their most relevant characteristics and main characteristics and main hydrological bordershydrological borders


Dividing the Country in Dividing the Country in Hydrographical Regions:Hydrographical Regions:

… … and and 57 57 hydrographical unitshydrographical units, , for the purposes of the for the purposes of the PNRH elaboration…PNRH elaboration…

IBGE has geocoded locations for their censa IBGE has geocoded locations for their censa by watersheds!by watersheds!

Otto-Basin Coding – Up to 4Otto-Basin Coding – Up to 4thth tributary level tributary level


Prospective Analysis - Considerations about the Prospective Analysis - Considerations about the strategies for the construction of the future strategies for the construction of the future

outlooksoutlooks

Formulation of strategies that permit taking advantage the Formulation of strategies that permit taking advantage the opportunities and reduce the threats to the objectives of opportunities and reduce the threats to the objectives of

the PNRHthe PNRH

Main threatMain threat: possibility of the merge of a inefficient water resources management system and a large expansion of urban and economic activities.

Principal opportunityPrincipal opportunity: environmental awareness growth and increased perception by diverse stakeholders of the importance of water resources for economic development and well being.


Logical Diagram for the Construction of ScenariosLogical Diagram for the Construction of Scenarios






Plan Plan Process Process


PNRH is documented and available …PNRH is documented and available …

httphttp://pnrh.cnrh-srh.gov.br://pnrh.cnrh-srh.gov.br


The Supply and Demand question for water…The Supply and Demand question for water…


The Supply and Demand question for water…The Supply and Demand question for water…

Or should it be Needs and Availability?Or should it be Needs and Availability?


Water is a finite and vulnerable resource …Water is a finite and vulnerable resource …

Main efforts should be concentrated in knowing the needs and limitations to build a strategy to distribute AVAILABLE AVAILABLE water among different needs (including the environment)

Supply vs. Demand Availability vs. Needs

Change of paradigmsChange of paradigms


Water Withdrawals by User by Hydrographical RegionWater Withdrawals by User by Hydrographical Region

Source: National Water Agency (ANA), 2006




Industrial / UrbanIndustrial / Urban




Rural, animal and irrigation uses account for more than 56%Rural, animal and irrigation uses account for more than 56%


Brazil - Total Withdrawals by UserBrazil - Total Withdrawals by User



Irrigation inIrrigation inHydrographical Regions:Hydrographical Regions:

Source: PNRH, 2006


Irrigation inIrrigation inHydrographical Regions:Hydrographical Regions:

Thus, most of the hopes for those Thus, most of the hopes for those regions, as far as water availability is regions, as far as water availability is concerned, are to promote water concerned, are to promote water efficiency in agriculture. efficiency in agriculture.

ZERO HUNGER ZERO HUNGER ZERO THIRST ZERO THIRST

Fome Zero Fome Zero Sede Zero Sede Zero

Source: PNRH, 2006


We have discussed the COMPETING uses for We have discussed the COMPETING uses for water…water…


We have discussed the COMPETING uses for We have discussed the COMPETING uses for water…water…

What about the COMPETING USES for What about the COMPETING USES for agricultural products and what do they mean for agricultural products and what do they mean for

water management?water management?


SouthPotential: 42 030 MWInstalled: 47.8%

Southeast/Central WestPotential: 78 716 MWInstalled: 41.0%

NorthPotential: 111 396 MWInstalled: 8.9%

NortheastPotential : 26 268 MWInstalled: 40.4%

BrazilPotential: 258 410 MW

Installed: 28.2%

Legend

Load Centers

Basins

Potential Hydropower Generation in BrazilPotential Hydropower Generation in Brazil

Source: SPE/MME, 2005


We have demand-side information for energy…We have demand-side information for energy…

Fonte: BEN, 2005

… … which means that policy makers KNOW where the which means that policy makers KNOW where the future energy needs might be …future energy needs might be …

Source: SPE/MME, 2005


Current Irrigation DemandsCurrent Irrigation Demands



ProbableProbable Irrigation Demands due to Energy Crops Irrigation Demands due to Energy Crops

Source: National Water Agency (ANA), 2006, mod Palombo, 2007

Expansion of ??%, ?? Ha Expansion of ??%, ?? Ha of land for energy cropsof land for energy crops


Productivity on the run: More crop per drop?

0

20.000.000

40.000.000

60.000.000

80.000.000

100.000.000

120.000.000

140.000.000

Cereais, leguminosas e oleaginosasÁrea e Produção - Brasil

1981 - 2007

Produção (t)Área (ha)Production (ton)Production (ton) Area (hectares)Area (hectares)

Cereals, legumes, and oil Cereals, legumes, and oil seedsseeds

Area vs. ProductionArea vs. Production1981 - 20071981 - 2007

Source: IBGE, LSPA 09/2007

133.3 M ton133.3 M ton

45.5 M ha45.5 M ha

… … but we don’t know for certain where it is but we don’t know for certain where it is going…going…

Is it going to food? Or, is it going to fuel?Is it going to food? Or, is it going to fuel?


Maybe, this is a good point to discuss Maybe, this is a good point to discuss the advent of biofuels… the advent of biofuels…


The Question of Energy Crops

So far, there is NO clear and conclusive data on the MAGNITUDE of the impact of the biofuels on water. However, there is a clear increase in the trends of land use expansion to accommodate energy demands of agricultural-based crops.“Current biofuels production methods place a heavy burden on land and water resources, due in part to the fossil fuel- and chemical-intensive corn that is used to produce over half the world’s ethanol” (Hunt, Worldwatch Institute, 2007)In Brazil – There are CLEAR advantages: It can buy fuel from its own farmers rather than importing fossil-based fuels from abroad. However, this might come at an environmental cost, unless there is appropriate planning and safeguards to protect soil and water resources at the watershed level.

… … and what about the EQUITY issues?and what about the EQUITY issues?

Who will benefit from the energy crop rush?Who will benefit from the energy crop rush?



… “Increasing global reliance on grain as a source of fuel could drive up food prices in poor countries. "The use of food as a source of fuel may have serious implications for the demand for food if the expansion of biofuels continues. (IMF, 2007)It argued that such an effect on food prices could be eased if the U.S. and the EU reduced barriers to biofuel imports from developing countries such as Brazil, "where production is cheaper, more efficient and environmentally less damaging.“ (IMF, idem)



In 2006, Brazil expanded its sugarcane production 8.1% compared to 2005, equivalent to 457,245,516 tons. Such growth was due primarily to the increasing demand for ethanol in the internal and foreign markets impacting the price of the crop in BRL 3,8 billion (USD 2 billion) or 29%, to a total of almost BRL 17 billion in 2006 (from PAM – Produção Agrícola Municipal 2006, IBGE, 2007).While a growing use of grain as feedstock for biofuels could boost food prices beyond current levels, the trend could also "exert additional stress on already highly exploited land and water resources worldwide.” (IMF, 2007)Increasing biofuel production to a point where it provided 5% of global fuel needs by 2015 would require expanding the acreage of allall cultivated land worldwide by 15%15% (LMC International, 2006)



Burning Question:

With the advent of energy With the advent of energy crops, are we able to derive crops, are we able to derive the scenarios to determine the scenarios to determine which crops and areas of which crops and areas of the world might be susceptible to food securitythe world might be susceptible to food securitythreats due to energy demands for crops?threats due to energy demands for crops?

Do we have the numbers in statistics, directly Do we have the numbers in statistics, directly or indirectly, to support the claims of one side oror indirectly, to support the claims of one side orthe other?the other?


… going back to the issue of demand-side statistics…

Probably, the answer to the previous question is laid beneath some of the proposals already mentioned in ICAS-4:

Integration:Integration:- at the NSO’s level (among sectoral SO’s);- at the NSO’s level (among sectoral SO’s);- - from head to tail (production to markets);from head to tail (production to markets);- with the users (- with the users (like water managerslike water managers)!)!

Networking:Networking:- exchange data, whenever possible;- exchange data, whenever possible;- exchange tools and best practices- exchange tools and best practices;;- CHANGE CULTURE on sharing!- CHANGE CULTURE on sharing!



We need “productivity”, and for achieving productivity, we need to know WHAT, WHERE and HOW to sow, plant, harvest, and convey food to curb starvation, and feed the country and the world equitably!Water management is a crucial chore in making that happen, since the same water that is used for agriculture is often claimed by other uses, like energy, transportation, and ultimately, direct human consumption.



A reflection on this reality and despite the advances made to increment food production, agriculture statistics compilation are failing to provide a reliable picture of the matrix of such production mosaic in the watersheds, in function of the final destination of crops, whether they are destined for human food or fuel products. We need to insist on correlating agricultural production and demands in the watersheds in order to make better decisions to support sustainable practices.


Water for Food, Agriculture, and Rural Livelihoods

Pasture and crops take up 37% of the Earth's land area.Poor drainage and irrigation practices have led to waterlogging and salinization of approximately 10% of the world's irrigated lands.Although it covers only 10% of the water used in agriculture, irrigation claims 70% of all freshwater withdrawals and so comes under heavy scrutiny when discussing freshwater governance. At present, about 13% of the world's population does not have access to enough food to live a healthy and productive life, yet the ability, technology and resources needed to produce enough food for every man, woman and child in the world do currently exist. Lack of health, financial or natural resources such as land and water, and lack of skills to link productive activities with remote markets and ensure employment, are all intimately related to poverty.

WWAP, WWDR2, 2006


Water for Food, Agriculture, and Rural Livelihoods

Although it covers only 10% of the water used in agriculture, irrigation claims 70% of all freshwater withdrawals and so comes under heavy scrutiny when discussing freshwater governance. Current global water withdrawals for irrigation are estimated at about 2,000 to 2,555 km3 per year.Irrigated area as a proportion or irrigation potential in 1999: - World: 50% - Sub-Saharan Africa: 13% - South Asia: more than 85%Land in agricultural use has increased by 12% since the 1960s to about 1.5 billion hectares.

WWAP, WWDR2, 2006


Efforts to monitor Earth resources – Remote Sensing

China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS)


Energy vs. FoodEnergy vs. Food

Burning Question:

With the advent of energy crops, are we able toWith the advent of energy crops, are we able toderive the scenarios to determine which crops derive the scenarios to determine which crops and areas of the world might be susceptible toand areas of the world might be susceptible tofood security threats due to energy demands food security threats due to energy demands for crops?for crops?

Do we have the numbers in statistics, directly Do we have the numbers in statistics, directly or indirectly, to support the claims of one side oror indirectly, to support the claims of one side orthe other?the other?


Population and water stress



More than half of the remaining agriculturable lands are in Brazil

Source: WWAP – WWDR2, 2006, mod. IICA, Palombo, 2007







Persistent variables:Persistent variables:- Water availability (stress, scarcity)- Water availability (stress, scarcity)- Population growth- Population growth

Driving forces:Driving forces:- Agricultural and energy policy- Agricultural and energy policy- Alternative energy sources- Alternative energy sources- Technology- Technology

Tools:Tools:- Agricultural and energy statistics- Agricultural and energy statistics

(supply- and demand-side)(supply- and demand-side)


Since I do not have time series, or current statistical data, Since I do not have time series, or current statistical data, I will recourse to the best guess of a water planner … I will recourse to the best guess of a water planner …

Land in agricultural use has increased by 12% since the 1960s to about 1.5 billion hectares1.5 billion hectares. (WWAP, 2006)Increasing biofuel production to a point where it provided 5% of global fuel needs by 2015 would require expanding the acreage of allall cultivated land worldwide by 15%15% (LMC International, 2006)

More than 50%More than 50% of future agriculturable lands are in Brazil...

Assuming Assuming expansion of up to half of the 15% expansion of up to half of the 15% in Brazil land for energy cropsin Brazil land for energy crops

That is up to 112.5 million hectaresThat is up to 112.5 million hectaresjust in Brazil!just in Brazil!


ProbableProbable Irrigation Demands due to Energy Crops Irrigation Demands due to Energy Crops

Source: National Water Agency (ANA), 2006, mod Palombo, 2007

Expansion of 30 – 84.4% Expansion of 30 – 84.4% of land for energy cropsof land for energy crops


Dilemmas in big countries with lots of people: Dilemmas in big countries with lots of people: The problem of aggregation and scaleThe problem of aggregation and scale

The physical scale of statistical aggregation, augmented with the limited manpower to validate crop almanacs, coefficients of evapotranspiration, soil humidity variation as result of changes in land cover and tilling practices, are making current agricultural statistics a less than desirable source of water resources planning for mid- to long-term timeframes in the field.

Burning question:

Which crops are offering more Which crops are offering more pressure on raw natural intakes pressure on raw natural intakes like soil and water in the watersheds? like soil and water in the watersheds? Are we measuring that? What is the Are we measuring that? What is the appropriate scale for POLICY MAKERS?appropriate scale for POLICY MAKERS?


A World described through Statistics – A World described through Statistics – How useful are they to How useful are they to

plan ahead and point to the path towards plan ahead and point to the path towards sustainability?sustainability?


A Proposal for FAOSTAT2A Proposal for FAOSTAT2

and many CountryStats, EuroStats, etc., …... and even for IBGE (Brazil) !


FAOSTAT2 Conceptual FrameworkFAOSTAT2 Conceptual Framework

Source: FAO (Kasnakoglu), 2004

WATER WATER ACCOUNTS?ACCOUNTS?

Total Water Total Water ConsumptionConsumption

HH22O Needs for AgricultureO Needs for Agriculture and Other Competing Uses

Water Stress?Water Stress?


FAOSTAT2 Conceptual FrameworkFAOSTAT2 Conceptual Framework

Source: FAO (Kasnakoglu), 2004

WATER WATER ACCOUNTS?ACCOUNTS?

Total Water Total Water ConsumptionConsumption

HH22O Needs for AgricultureO Needs for Agriculture and Other Competing Uses

$$$ - Where is the WATER COST? - $$$$$$ - Where is the WATER COST? - $$$

Water Stress?Water Stress?


AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

ICAS-4 Organizing CommitteeInternational Statistical Institute (ISI) and World Bank Institute (WBI)National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of ChinaDepartment of Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (DEFRA-UK)

… … and to each and everyone of you, for and to each and everyone of you, for coming and sharing your experiences!coming and sharing your experiences!


Useful linksUseful links

National Water Resources Council - Conselho Nacional de Recursos Hídricos

www.cnrh-srh.gov.brNational Water Resources Plan - Plano Nacional de Recursos Hídricos (PNRH)

pnrh.cnrh-srh.gov.brMinistry of Environment – Ministério do Meio Ambiente (MMA)

www.mma.gov.brAgencia Nacional de Águas

www.ana.gov.brSecond World Water Resources Development Report:

http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/wwdr2/


httphttp://pnrh.cnrh-srh.gov.br://pnrh.cnrh-srh.gov.br

Thank You! Thank You! ¡Gracias! ¡Gracias! Obrigado!Obrigado!

谢谢谢谢

[email protected]

+55 61 9232.0696 (Tel) - +55 61 3468-1599 (Fax)USA Direct +1 305 720.2810

Alberto J. PalomboAlberto J. Palombo

Documents

National Water Resources Plan of Brazil Fourth International Conference on Agriculture Statistics Beijing – People’s Republic of China – October 22-24,