Upload
vivien-weaver
View
222
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Natural Resource Partners L.P.
RBC Capital Markets
Energy Conference
New York
June 3, 2008
2
Forward-Looking Statements
The statements made by representatives of Natural Resource Partners L.P. (“NRP”) during the course of this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Although NRP believes that the assumptions underlying these statements are reasonable, investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and necessarily involve risks that may affect NRP’s business prospects and performance, causing actual results to differ from those discussed during the presentation.
Such risks and uncertainties include, by way of example and not of limitation: general business and economic conditions; decreases in demand for coal; changes in our lessees’ operating conditions and costs; changes in the level of costs related to environmental protection and operational safety; unanticipated geologic problems; problems related to force majeure; potential labor relations problems; changes in the legislative or regulatory environment; and lessee production cuts.
These and other applicable risks and uncertainties have been described more fully in NRP’s 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K. NRP undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events.
3
The Global Coal MarketsThe Global Coal Markets
And Their ImpactAnd Their Impact
On NRPOn NRP
Current Coal Market
• Exciting time in the coal industry
• Demand increasing
• Coal prices continue to improve month over month
• U.S. coal pricing with global coal
• World economic indicators point toward higher global coal demand and a supply shortfall
• Bodes well for U.S. coal industry and NRP
4
5
Global Coal Consumption – Growth 2001 to 2006
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
North
America
S. & Cent.
America
Europe &
Euroasia
Middle
East
Africa Asia
Pacifi c
2001
2006
Global Coal Consumption
has increased 30%
between 2001 and 2006
•China ~ 75%
•India ~ 38%
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007
MM tonnes
6
Coal is on the MoveCoal is on the Move
7
Global Demand and the Domestic Coal Markets
• China doubled its annual coal production between 2000 and 2006
– Still cannot keep up with demand within China
– Has gone from exporter to importer of coal
• China, India, East Asia and Europe importing coal
– High freight rates give U.S. coal into Europe an advantage
– Weakness in the U.S. dollar
• Problems in global coal deliveries creates extremely tight coal market
– Australian floods and infrastructure issues
– Power shortages in South Africa causing mines to shut down periodically
• Currently - no excess production in U.S. market
• Increasing exports boosting U.S. domestic coal prices
• Swing coals that were being sold into steam market are now going into
met market causing shortages in the steam market
Exports Increasing
• U.S. exports increasing – up 19% in 2007 over 2006 and rising
– metallurgical coal at average price of ~ $89 per ton in 2007
– steam coal at average price of ~$48 per ton in 2007
• Exports forecasted to increase by approximately 48% in 2008 over
2007
– Steam exports forecasted to increase by approximately 73%
– Met exports forecasted to increase by approximately 28%
• Exports 2007
– Canada and Mexico ~ 35%
– Overseas ~65%
8
Source: EIA and COALCAST
Spot Coal Price Comparisons
May 16, 2008
1 monthago
M/M 1 Year ago
Y/Y
CAPPBig Sandy Rail 12,500/1.2
$98.50 $87.50 12.6% $46.50 111.8%
CAPPBargeNYMEX - spec
97.00 87.80 10.5% 44.50 118.0%
NAPPPittsburgh Seam 2.5 lbs
105.25 103.00 2.2% 44.50 136.5%
Illinois Basin Barge 11,800
70.00 68.00 1.7% 35.75 95.8%
PRB 8800 14.10 14.20 -0.7% 8.80 60.2%
9Source: Argus Coal
10
Recent Announcements – Coal Contracts
• BHP signs contracts with Japan for $315 per metric tonne for
metallurgical coal setting the tone for new contract negotiations around
the globe
• U.S. coal companies 1Q08 conference calls and earnings releases
– Alpha, the largest exporter of U.S. metallurgical coal and NRP’s largest met
producer
• After end of 1Q08, secured 2008 contract for 750,000 tons of met coal at $240-$250 per
ton at the mine
• 57% of 2009 planned production is still uncommitted
• Have sold remainder of 2008 thermal coal (340,000 tons) at $87 per ton
– Patriot Coal
• 5.5 to 6.5 million tons of met coal and 3.5 to 4.5 million tons of thermal coal still
uncommitted for 2009
– Arch Coal
• In Central App., recent metallurgical coal sales approached the Asian market benchmark
prices, on a quality adjusted basis. Arch also committed substantial steam coal volumes
for 08 and 09 at pricing averaging more than a 40% premium over 1Q08
Source: Company reports and industry trade publications
11
NRP Stands to BenefitNRP Stands to Benefit
12
NRP Investment Considerations
A Proxy for the Coal Industry
• Landholding company
– Lease reserves to coal mining companies
– Receive royalty on production based on a % of the gross selling price
• 2.1 billion tons of coal reserves (22% metallurgical and 78% steam)
• 66 lessees produce approximately 5% of U.S. production from NRP’s 191 leases
• Three major coal producing regions in eleven states
• 2008 estimated production: 57 million tons to 67 million tons
• Coal royalty accounts for approximately 75% of NRP’s revenue stream
Continue to Diversify Income Stream
• Coal Infrastructure and Transportation
• Aggregate Royalties
• Oil and Gas Royalties, Timber, Wheelage and other
NRP - 25% of U.S. Metallurgical Coal Production
• 2007 U.S. Met Production ~ 52 million tons
– Exports 32.2 million tons at an average price of ~$89/ton
• 2007 NRP Met Production ~ 13 million tons
• NRP Met Production 1Q08
– 28% of NRP’s total production and 37% of NRP’s coal royalty revenue
– 4.1 million tons
– 15 Lessees of which 8 are public companies
• 22% of NRP’s 2.1 billion tons of reserves are metallurgical
• NRP is highly leveraged to movements in metallurgical coal prices
13Source: EIA and NRP
14
Historical Performance
• We believe that NRP’s 2008 financial
performance will be better than
originally forecasted and shown on
this slide
• Currently do not have sufficient
information from our lessees to
quantify increase in guidance
• New guidance to be issued
August 11 with 2Q08 earnings
• Increasing revenue stream provides
for growing distributions
Total Revenues
Distributable Cash Flow
31% CAGR
31% CAGR
27% CAGR27% CAGR
?
?
15
Increased distributions last 19 quarters, 93% overall
DistributionsDistributions
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
4
Q 0
2
2
Q 0
3
4
Q 0
3
2
Q 0
4
4
Q 0
5
2
Q 0
5
4
Q 0
5
2
Q 0
6
4
Q 0
6
2
Q 0
7
4
Q 0
7
93% Distribution Increase
Increased Quarterly Distributions
16
Where are we going next?Where are we going next?
Short Term Outlook for Coal Markets
• World dynamics that would need to change to see lower coal
prices
– China and India economies would need to slow significantly
– Infrastructure problems in both Australia and South Africa need to
be resolved
– Stronger dollar
– Lower freight rates
– Lower fuel, steel and labor costs
• Met prices for 2008, 2009 and 2010 are well positioned to
remain strong
• Global demand and U.S. exports will continue to place upward
pressure on domestic coal prices
17
18
Long Term Outlook for the Coal Markets
• Strong demand next few years
• EIA expects total U.S. electricity sales to increase 50% by 2030
• EIA expects U. S. coal fueled electricity to gain additional
market share over the next 25 years growing to approximately
54% by 2030 from 49% today
• Developing nations around the globe are looking to coal to
supply their energy needs creating increasing demand
Source: EIA – Energy Information Agency and NRP