18
Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

Natural Resource Partners L.P.

RBC Capital Markets

Energy Conference

New York

June 3, 2008

Page 2: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

2

Forward-Looking Statements

The statements made by representatives of Natural Resource Partners L.P. (“NRP”) during the course of this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Although NRP believes that the assumptions underlying these statements are reasonable, investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and necessarily involve risks that may affect NRP’s business prospects and performance, causing actual results to differ from those discussed during the presentation.

Such risks and uncertainties include, by way of example and not of limitation: general business and economic conditions; decreases in demand for coal; changes in our lessees’ operating conditions and costs; changes in the level of costs related to environmental protection and operational safety; unanticipated geologic problems; problems related to force majeure; potential labor relations problems; changes in the legislative or regulatory environment; and lessee production cuts.

These and other applicable risks and uncertainties have been described more fully in NRP’s 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K. NRP undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events.

Page 3: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

3

The Global Coal MarketsThe Global Coal Markets

And Their ImpactAnd Their Impact

On NRPOn NRP

Page 4: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

Current Coal Market

• Exciting time in the coal industry

• Demand increasing

• Coal prices continue to improve month over month

• U.S. coal pricing with global coal

• World economic indicators point toward higher global coal demand and a supply shortfall

• Bodes well for U.S. coal industry and NRP

4

Page 5: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

5

Global Coal Consumption – Growth 2001 to 2006

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

North

America

S. & Cent.

America

Europe &

Euroasia

Middle

East

Africa Asia

Pacifi c

2001

2006

Global Coal Consumption

has increased 30%

between 2001 and 2006

•China ~ 75%

•India ~ 38%

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007

MM tonnes

Page 6: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

6

Coal is on the MoveCoal is on the Move

Page 7: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

7

Global Demand and the Domestic Coal Markets

• China doubled its annual coal production between 2000 and 2006

– Still cannot keep up with demand within China

– Has gone from exporter to importer of coal

• China, India, East Asia and Europe importing coal

– High freight rates give U.S. coal into Europe an advantage

– Weakness in the U.S. dollar

• Problems in global coal deliveries creates extremely tight coal market

– Australian floods and infrastructure issues

– Power shortages in South Africa causing mines to shut down periodically

• Currently - no excess production in U.S. market

• Increasing exports boosting U.S. domestic coal prices

• Swing coals that were being sold into steam market are now going into

met market causing shortages in the steam market

Page 8: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

Exports Increasing

• U.S. exports increasing – up 19% in 2007 over 2006 and rising

– metallurgical coal at average price of ~ $89 per ton in 2007

– steam coal at average price of ~$48 per ton in 2007

• Exports forecasted to increase by approximately 48% in 2008 over

2007

– Steam exports forecasted to increase by approximately 73%

– Met exports forecasted to increase by approximately 28%

• Exports 2007

– Canada and Mexico ~ 35%

– Overseas ~65%

8

Source: EIA and COALCAST

Page 9: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

Spot Coal Price Comparisons

May 16, 2008

1 monthago

M/M 1 Year ago

Y/Y

CAPPBig Sandy Rail 12,500/1.2

$98.50 $87.50 12.6% $46.50 111.8%

CAPPBargeNYMEX - spec

97.00 87.80 10.5% 44.50 118.0%

NAPPPittsburgh Seam 2.5 lbs

105.25 103.00 2.2% 44.50 136.5%

Illinois Basin Barge 11,800

70.00 68.00 1.7% 35.75 95.8%

PRB 8800 14.10 14.20 -0.7% 8.80 60.2%

9Source: Argus Coal

Page 10: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

10

Recent Announcements – Coal Contracts

• BHP signs contracts with Japan for $315 per metric tonne for

metallurgical coal setting the tone for new contract negotiations around

the globe

• U.S. coal companies 1Q08 conference calls and earnings releases

– Alpha, the largest exporter of U.S. metallurgical coal and NRP’s largest met

producer

• After end of 1Q08, secured 2008 contract for 750,000 tons of met coal at $240-$250 per

ton at the mine

• 57% of 2009 planned production is still uncommitted

• Have sold remainder of 2008 thermal coal (340,000 tons) at $87 per ton

– Patriot Coal

• 5.5 to 6.5 million tons of met coal and 3.5 to 4.5 million tons of thermal coal still

uncommitted for 2009

– Arch Coal

• In Central App., recent metallurgical coal sales approached the Asian market benchmark

prices, on a quality adjusted basis. Arch also committed substantial steam coal volumes

for 08 and 09 at pricing averaging more than a 40% premium over 1Q08

Source: Company reports and industry trade publications

Page 11: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

11

NRP Stands to BenefitNRP Stands to Benefit

Page 12: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

12

NRP Investment Considerations

A Proxy for the Coal Industry

• Landholding company

– Lease reserves to coal mining companies

– Receive royalty on production based on a % of the gross selling price

• 2.1 billion tons of coal reserves (22% metallurgical and 78% steam)

• 66 lessees produce approximately 5% of U.S. production from NRP’s 191 leases

• Three major coal producing regions in eleven states

• 2008 estimated production: 57 million tons to 67 million tons

• Coal royalty accounts for approximately 75% of NRP’s revenue stream

Continue to Diversify Income Stream

• Coal Infrastructure and Transportation

• Aggregate Royalties

• Oil and Gas Royalties, Timber, Wheelage and other

Page 13: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

NRP - 25% of U.S. Metallurgical Coal Production

• 2007 U.S. Met Production ~ 52 million tons

– Exports 32.2 million tons at an average price of ~$89/ton

• 2007 NRP Met Production ~ 13 million tons

• NRP Met Production 1Q08

– 28% of NRP’s total production and 37% of NRP’s coal royalty revenue

– 4.1 million tons

– 15 Lessees of which 8 are public companies

• 22% of NRP’s 2.1 billion tons of reserves are metallurgical

• NRP is highly leveraged to movements in metallurgical coal prices

13Source: EIA and NRP

Page 14: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

14

Historical Performance

• We believe that NRP’s 2008 financial

performance will be better than

originally forecasted and shown on

this slide

• Currently do not have sufficient

information from our lessees to

quantify increase in guidance

• New guidance to be issued

August 11 with 2Q08 earnings

• Increasing revenue stream provides

for growing distributions

Total Revenues

Distributable Cash Flow

31% CAGR

31% CAGR

27% CAGR27% CAGR

?

?

Page 15: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

15

Increased distributions last 19 quarters, 93% overall

DistributionsDistributions

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

4

Q 0

2

2

Q 0

3

4

Q 0

3

2

Q 0

4

4

Q 0

5

2

Q 0

5

4

Q 0

5

2

Q 0

6

4

Q 0

6

2

Q 0

7

4

Q 0

7

93% Distribution Increase

Increased Quarterly Distributions

Page 16: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

16

Where are we going next?Where are we going next?

Page 17: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

Short Term Outlook for Coal Markets

• World dynamics that would need to change to see lower coal

prices

– China and India economies would need to slow significantly

– Infrastructure problems in both Australia and South Africa need to

be resolved

– Stronger dollar

– Lower freight rates

– Lower fuel, steel and labor costs

• Met prices for 2008, 2009 and 2010 are well positioned to

remain strong

• Global demand and U.S. exports will continue to place upward

pressure on domestic coal prices

17

Page 18: Natural Resource Partners L.P. RBC Capital Markets Energy Conference New York June 3, 2008

18

Long Term Outlook for the Coal Markets

• Strong demand next few years

• EIA expects total U.S. electricity sales to increase 50% by 2030

• EIA expects U. S. coal fueled electricity to gain additional

market share over the next 25 years growing to approximately

54% by 2030 from 49% today

• Developing nations around the globe are looking to coal to

supply their energy needs creating increasing demand

Source: EIA – Energy Information Agency and NRP