Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
©TeamSAI
NAVIGATING THROUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE
UNCERTAINTY AND RISK . . .
2014–2024 GLOBAL MRO FORECASTMRO ASIA CONFERENCE
NOVEMBER 2014
11/04/2014
©TeamSAI
NAVIGATING THROUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE
A LOOK BACK
211/04/2014
©TeamSAI 3
IN 2004, TEAMSAI PREDICTED MRO IN 2014 WOULD EXCEED $56B
11/04/2014
$42.7
$56.5
2004 20142004 Forecast 2014 Forecast
BUT WOULD ANYONE SAY IT HAS BEEN AN EASY DECADE?Note: All values in 2014 $US
Total Jet Aircraft MRO Forecast (2014 $USB)
$54.7
2014 2024
$83.3
©TeamSAI
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MRO PLANNING?
11/04/2014
MROPLANNING
risks and uncertainty abound…
ForecastUncertainties
MROUncertainties
Geo-PoliticalRisks
NaturalDisasterRisks
©TeamSAI 5
DON’T GET COMPLACENT…GEO-POLITICAL RISKS CONTINUE
11/04/2014
slowdown in China
• Chinese economic growth accounts for 24% of net global growth
GEO
-PO
LITI
CA
L
currency fluctuations
• Threatens airlines in emerging markets such as India and Indonesia
• Ticket prices• Ability to purchase oil and parts
short term
short to medium
term
China as a share of net economic growth ¼Ticket prices
US$-denominated oilNon-local spare parts ▲
?
emerging market currency fluctuations
slowdown in China
©TeamSAI 6
DON’T GET COMPLACENT…MRO RISKS ABOUNDM
RO
©TeamSAI
NAVIGATING THROUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE
FLEET AND MROOUTLOOK
711/04/2014
©TeamSAI
year-by-year fleet forecast
year-by-year MRO forecast
improved airframe modifications model
improved component MRO model
improved line maintenance model
implemented engine shop visit model and improved interval driver methodology
improved labor/material differentiation across all models
8
MODEL ENHANCEMENTS FOR 2014
11/04/2014
©TeamSAI 9
GLOBAL FLEET OUTLOOK - COMMERCIAL AIRLINE SECTOR
11/04/2014
2014-2024 Growth
Rate
2024 Market Share
0.8% 24%
2.1% 18%
4.4% 17%
7.3% 12%
5.1% 8%
5.6% 6%
5.8% 6%
5.1% 5%
11.4% 3%
©TeamSAI 10
GLOBALLY, THE MRO GROWTH OUTLOOK IS HEALTHY
11/04/2014
$58B-$87B
Global Market Size
+4.2% CAGR
2014-2024
Airframe 4.1% 20%Engine 4.1% 38%Component 4.4% 22%Line 4.1% 20%
CAGR % SHARE
©TeamSAI 11
MRO REGIONAL MARKET SHARES CHANGE DRAMATICALLY BY 2024
11/04/2014
ME/Africa • ME will double by 2024, driving majority of growth
Asia • Asia will be the largest MRO market by 2024
Americas • Large-scale fleet replacement in NA translates to flat MRO
• LA&C market drives growth
Europe • EU to have moderate MRO growth, at 2.9%
Europe
Americas
Asia
ME/Africa
©TeamSAI 12
ASIAN FLEET GROWTH WILL BE SOLID
11/04/2014
pax traffic2014F (IATA) ▲ 5.8% RPK
current fleet2014 (Ascend Online) 6,031
fleet CAGR2014-24 (TeamSAI) +6.0%deliveries2014-24 (TeamSAI) 5,800+
retirements2014-24 (TeamSAI) 1,100+
2014-2024 CAGR
6.0%
3.6%
4.5%
5.5%
6.7%
©TeamSAI 13
ASIAN MRO OUTLOOK
11/04/2014
$15B-$30BMarket Size
+6.8% CAGR
2014-2024
Airframe 7.3% 19%Engine 6.5% 40%Component 7.7% 21%Line 6.2% 20%
CAGR % SHARE
©TeamSAI 14
ASIAN MRO BY VINTAGE & MODEL TYPE
11/04/2014
Consider Impact to MRO
less-mx-intensive HMV ▼engine MRO honeymoon ▼component MRO honeymoon ▼1970s + 1980s share ▼1990s, 2000s, 2010s share ▲
Asia’s Top 10 Aircraft Families in terms of MRO Spend2014 2024
1 A320 CEO & NEO 27% A320 CEO & NEO 30%2 737 NG & MAX 24% 737 NG & MAX 27%3 777 7% 777 6%4 A330 7% 787 5%5 737 Classics 5% A330 5%6 ATR 42/72 4% A350 4%7 747-400 4% ATR 42/72 4%8 767 3% COMAC C919 2%9 Embraer 170/175/190/195 & E2 2% ARJ21-700 2%
10 DHC-8-100/200/300 2% CSeries 2%
©TeamSAI
NAVIGATING THROUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE
DEALING WITHUNCERTAINTY AND RISK
1511/04/2014
©TeamSAI 16
RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES IN FLEET AND MRO FORECAST
11/04/2014
HIGH: higher deliveries/lower retirementsmoderate interest ratesstable economic growth in emerging regionsmoderate oil prices
lower deliveries/higher retirementshigher interest rates
LOW: low economic growth
©TeamSAI
BENEFITS
17
POSITIONING THE BUSINESS EFFECTIVELY
11/04/2014
Methods to Achieve
strong balance sheet
good bottom line
distinctive reputation
effective scenario/ contingency planning
customer focus
broad vision
excellent execution
financial discipline
Lead
ing
Qua
litie
s EXCELLENCEEXCELLENCE
PROFITABILITYPROFITABILITY
▼SURVIVABILITY▲VERSATILITY
▼SURVIVABILITY▲VERSATILITY
PREPAREDNESSPREPAREDNESS
©TeamSAI
Deliver……..Deliver……..
Define ……..Define ……..
Analyze……..Analyze……..
18
MROS MUST ANALYZE, DEFINE, AND DELIVER VALUE TO CUSTOMERS
11/04/2014
know yourmarketknow yourmarket
know your propositionknow your proposition
know yourcustomerknow yourcustomer
compelling presentation
execution
clear business case
pricing
clear strategy, positioning
market attractiveness
competitor analysis
market potential
©TeamSAI
NAVIGATING THROUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE
THANK YOU
1911/04/2014
Dave MarcontellPresident & COOTeamSAI, Inc.(404) [email protected]
WWW.TEAMSAI.COM
