Neupert

Market Success of Pedelecs based on technology and general Market trends.05. March 2010City Hall / Prag

Hannes NeupertPresident ExtraEnergy e.V.Treasurer EnergyBus e.V.Industrial Designer, independent consultant

Content:

- Self Introduction - LEV Definition- LEV Market - Why Pedelecs will be successful- General phenomena of „Electrification“- Battery Technology used today in LEV‘s- Battery Safety Experience in the LEV Market- Connectivity and Standardization

Self introductionHannes Neupert, Solar car racing since 1985, Since 1992 working only on electric bicycle Tests, since 2001 focussed on Battery safety and connectivity.

Self introductionExtraEnergy e.V. a consumer protection non for profit organization headquartered in Tanna Germany. Promoting the use of LEV‘s especially Pedelecs by making available independent Test data, organizing conferences, trade fairs...

Self introductionEnergyBus e.V. a Industry standardization non for profit organization headquartered in Tanna Germany. Promoting a common connector family and communication protocol to be used within the LEV market to allow for example hassle free public charging and global service.

LEV Definition - 4 subgroups:6

Light Electric Vehicle (LEV) DefinitionMuscle Electric Hybrid Vehicles

Pure Light Electric Vehicles

Pure Electric Sports and Leisure Vehicles Pure Electric Work Assist Vehicles

Muscle Electric Hybrid Vehicle7

Light Electric Vehicle (LEV) DefinitionSubcategories:E-Bike: Pedelec:

E-Bike: Accelerate independent from the muscle power input by twisting the throttle!

Pedelec: An abbreviation of Pedal-Electric-Cycle. It assists you only when you pedal.

Electric Bike and the drawer is open!8

for elderly peoplefor handicappedfor fat peoplefor unsportyfor lazy people= nothing for me!

for embarrassing items where nobody wants to spend money fore!

Marketing agencies which have no Idea about LEV‘s prefare usually the terminology E-Bike!

9

Pedelec - What is that?Can I try it?Wow! now I have tried it - that is really cool it has made real fun! I did not expect so much.

52 000 CZK for such a pedelec - quite a reasonable price for such a cool item!

The term Pedelec opens a chance for a unbiased test ride!

What is a Pedelec?

10

Testride = The only chance to get it!

Please try it today at the Forebikes Exhibition.

11

Pedelec =

Bicycle with incline removal functionality

Bicycle-Rider-Fun but not bicycle rider hassle like pushing uphill...

12

Cycling without arriving at work sweated and exhausted...

Cycling with integrated motivator unit...

13

Pedelec riding is not sporty?

„Pedelec usage is not sporty since you do not need to move your body as much as on a normal bicycle!“

Cars are sporty!

This physical lie proves: Public reception is just based on good marketing!

Public reception is not logical:

Sporty! ? Lazy!Not used by anyone in industrialized countries anymore

Common associations:- old fashioned- grand mother style- only for poor people in developing countries- hard and terrible work

Used by everyone in industrialized countries

Common associations:- easy- modern lifestyle - clever- ecological friendly- comfy

Fact no 1: The human is a lazy animal!Watch stairs and escalators in any city in the world - and you will find the proof! True as well for Prague! Just the same humans everywhere...

Future based on laziness!Pedelecs are the escalator, the washing machine as well the daily exercise machine - they are becoming to be the iconic image of modern mobility.

Sparta TV TV Spot 200419

Sparta has made it to remove the Pedelec in the netherlands from the old and handicapped image corner and make it a acceptable and smart mobility device!

20

„No need to be ashamed anymore, when riding an electric bike“

February 2008, one of the biggest morning news papers of The Netherlands.

Pedelecs do not need to be embarrassing:

The Netherlands market is the most developed pedelec market in Europe, and about 3 years ahead of the german market and many more ears ahead of other EU markets... It is like a window into the future of pedelec sales for other countries.

According to the BOVAG organization in 2009 150 000 Pedelecs where sold in The Netherlands.

30% market growth compared to 2008!

10% of the sold bicycles in 2009 have been Pedelecs

30% of the turn over money-wise has been made with Pedelecs

According to industry insiders from the Netherlands the real numbers are even higher: about 200 000 Pedelecs sold, which is about 16% of the market share in numbers and about 35-40% of the turn over!

Cycles per person - Pedelecs are the modern cycles

Daily bicycle usage:

Sales and sales route data:

LEV Market:The total number of LEV‘s sold in 2008 (only electric scooters and Pedelec/E-Bikes counted). Have been over 23 Million units Worldwide!(Source EBWW Report Frank Jamerson)

Strong differences are visible between the main market in China and the markets in North-America, Europe and Japan.

LEV Market in China:In China the electric drive is domination and it is not intended by the most users to use the pedals - they are more or less a emergency propulsion device to get back to the charger.

• Chinese fast food delivery E-Bike!

• E-Bike brand:

• Year purchased:

• Price when purchased when new:

• Typical usage: several deliveries a day with chinese fast food for customers in the area (approximate milage of the vehicle assumption ??? km)

• Address and Name of the shop.

• Name of the rider on the picture:

• Range of the bike with one charge when new and when purchased? Have the batteries been replaced?

Jean if he does not want to sell it we can just skip it!

LEV Market in NA, Europe, Japan:People enjoy mild daily exercise and expect the motor assist to just support and relieve the stress from steep inclines and accelerations.

0

750.000

1.500.000

2.250.000

3.000.000

0

750.000

1.500.000

2.250.000

3.000.000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018

conservative realistic progressive

Market growth expectation till 2018 in German market:

0

7.500.000

15.000.000

22.500.000

30.000.000

0

7.500.000

15.000.000

22.500.000

30.000.000

Worldwide sales according to EBWR:

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

China

IndiaJapan

Europe

SE AsiaTaiwan

USAWorld

0

2.000.000.000

4.000.000.000

6.000.000.000

8.000.000.000

0

2.000.000.000

4.000.000.000

6.000.000.000

8.000.000.000

Turnover / Euro:

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

China, 150 Euro

India, 150 EuroJapan, 900 Euro

Europa, 1300 Euro

SE Asia, 150 EuroTaiwan, 450 Euro

USA, 450 EuroWorld

Profit / Euro:

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

375.000.000

750.000.000

1.125.000.000

1.500.000.000

Profit / Euro:

0

375.000.000

750.000.000

1.125.000.000

1.500.000.000

China, 4 Euro India, 4 Euro

Japan, 250 EuroEuropa, 350 Euro

SE Asia, 4 Euro Taiwan, 150 Euro

USA, 180 EuroWorld

Relationship to other traffic tools:

Why Pedelecs will be successful -10 key reasons:1) Easy parking2) More movements per street3) Low costs of ownership4) Low emissions5) Safe6) Provides mobility7) Good for health8) Energy-Efficient9) Helping to reach CO2 Emission Targets10) Sustainable

Why Pedelecs will be successful:

Easy parking -Cycles and pedelecs do need minimum parking space = Creating room for green areas and playgrounds in urban areas!

More movements per street - Cycles as well as pedelecs use the road very efficient.


Low costs of ownership - Extremely low cost of ownership and operation. A best practice example from Salzburg shows that with a monthly lease of about 40 Euro it is possible to use a pedelec.


Low emissions - Less emissions of Noise, exhaust gasses and particle emissions.


Safe - Lower danger potential as cars due to the lower mass and lower speed.

Provides mobility - Fulfills most daily mobility needs of most people.


Good for health - according to the WHO extended lifetime of up to 8 years if used daily for light exercise of minimum 30 continues minutes.

Statistic about reasons for unnatural death England 2003:

2003, Source - Bike to Work Tim Grahl und Carlton Reid


Efficient - The most efficient mode of transportation ever developed.


Helping to reach CO2 Emission Targets - A new car is still emitting about 150 g CO2 per km in the EU!

The Gepida Reptila 1000 emits only 11,7 g CO2 per km according to the ExtraEnergy Test 2009/2010 (3 g electrically based on the german energy mix with coal, gas and oil power plants plus 8,7 g out of human exercise based on average german diet and CO2 balance of the food)


Sustainable - The CO2 balance can be easily improved by using renewable energy sources!

General phenomena of „Electrification“As it has happened to many other products before it will happen to the bicycle as well - the virus of „electronification“ will kill the mechanical bicycle within a few years like it has killed many other mechanical products before.

Vision: Future Bicycle = Pedelec!I believe that the Pedelec as a electronic counterpart of the bicycle will dominate the Bicycle market in the near future due to so many more options and Features which can never be realized by a mechanical solution!

The 3 Rules of electronification:A) Much more customers due to more applications based on the software driven features - ranges factor 3-30B) Much higher pricing due to higher user value ranges between factor 3-4C) Much shorter usage cycle due to faster development cycles which are creating replacement wishes by the customer who wants the latest features

Theory proven in the German market:0

5001000

1500

Theory proven in the German market:0

5001000

1500

Pedelecs

MTB suspension

Speciality bicycles

Roadracers

MTB no suspension

Terkingbikes

Foldingbikes

ATB

Citybikes

Children bicycles

2007 2008

Pedelec 1685 Euro

Citybike 517 Euro

times 3,25

Battery Technology used today in LEV‘s:In the Pedelec Market the Lithium battery is dominating in Japan, Europe but not jet in the North American Market.

In China the PB Battery is still domination but it seems that the switch will be step-less from PB to Lithium as it is already visible in the Bicycle stores in China today.

Currently sold LEV Batteries EU Market:

Retails in the average for 574 Euro between 348 and 970 EuroAverage capacity 298 Wh ranges from 212 to 648 WhTypical voltage 24-36VAverage weight 3,2 kg ranges from 2,2 to 8,5 kgAll pictured removable batteries of the April 2009 Pedelec Tests are lithium chemistry!

The Pedelec battery has changed to Lithium!

The Pedelec industry has changed in just 6 Years to over 90% Lithium batteries. Due to the improved capacity per weight, easy handling and long lifetime!

51

The Pedelec industry has changed in just 6 Years to over 90%

2008 2009

Battery Safety Experience with LEV‘sMany accidents, have happened in the past several years. Several houses of customers have burned down. Several Bicycle stores, Bicycle factories have been heavily damaged.

Just good luck nobody has died so far!

That is why ExtraEnergy has developed a Battery Safety test protocol for LEV Lithium Batteries together with UL, TÜV Rheinland and ITRI called BATSO 01

53

BATSO Test a worldwide solution!- Battery types used in the European Pedelec market- Transport rules by the United Nations are binding law!- 8 key factors for battery selection- Potential danger of batteries - Safety first!- How to know if a battery is safe!- BATSO Tests and their history

54

The main factors for the market success:-Safe and long life productsBATSO, GS, ExtraEnergy Tests,...- Easy usage and reliable infrastructureEnergyBus charge and battery swapping with intuitive handling - Affordability and pay by usage optionsPay buy use of the battery - Fun and prestigious productsA Pedelec for all applications:

A pedelec does not need to look like a bike - The Netherlands are always a innovative corner for bicycle trends...

Thank you for your time!Please visit as well:

www.ExtraEnergy.orgwww.BATSO.orgwww.EnergyBus.orgwww.LEVConference.orgwww.GoPedelec.eu

Hannes NeupertExtraEnergy e.V.Koskauer Str 10007922 Tanna/Thü[email protected]: 036646-27094

Documents

Neupert