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A G20 InItIAtIve
GlobAl InfrAstructure outlook
Infrastructure investment need in the compact with Africa countriesGlobal Infrastructure Outlook forecasts infrastructure investment needs to 2040 at a country and sector level. In 2018, it was updated to include the 10 countries participating in the G20 Compact with Africa (CwA), an ambitious yet practical effort to substantially increase infrastructure investment.
US $ 2.0 trillion is needed to close infrastructure gaps for the 10 CwA nations, increasing to $US 2.4 trillion to meet the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for electricity and water by 2030. This compares with $US 1.4 trillion forecasted based on current investment trends.
0.5
0.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
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forecAsts of InfrAstructure Investment for 10 cwA countrIes – 2016 to 2040$US Trillion
Current trends
Investment need
Investment need inc. SDGs by 2030
the majority of investment needs in electricity, roads and waterForecasted investment needs of electricity and roads, including SDGs, represent the majority of total investment need for the CwA countries. Of the $US 2.4 trillion needed by 2040, the greatest is in electricity at $US 974 billion, followed by roads at $US 519 billion and water at $US 426 billion.
Compared with the world, of the $US 97 trillion needed by 2040, the largest needs are in roads at $US 34 trillion, followed by electricity at $US 31 trillion and rail at $US 11 trillion.
explore infrastructure and economic dataGlobal Infrastructure Outlook allows users to explore the impact of drivers of investment need, including GDP growth rate, population growth rate and rate of urbanisation, on total infrastructure investment need.
Office Address Level 23, 68 Pitt St Sydney NSW 2000
Postal Address PO Box R1947, Royal Exchange Sydney NSW 1225 Australia
Tel +61 2 8315 5300 Email [email protected] www.gihub.org
Benin
Cote d’Ivo
ire
Ghana
Guinea
Morocco
Ethiopia
Rwanda
Senegal
Tunisia
Egypt
Infrastructure investment needs by country as a proportion of GDP Ethiopia and Egypt comprises 60% of the GDP and 57% of the population of CwA countries. Together they comprise $1.5 trillion of the $2.4 trillion needed by CwA countries, and represent the majority of infrastructure investment need among Compact with Africa (CwA) countries taking into account UN’s Sustainable Development Goals for electricity and water access (SDG). However, as a proportion of GDP, Ethiopia and Guinea are forecast with the greatest investment need at 19% and 13% respectively.Figure 1 - Forecasts of infrastructure investment need 2016 - 2040, including SDGs
Figure 2 - Forecasts of infrastructure investment gaps 2016 - 2040, including SDGs
Electricity Piped water and improved sanitation
100
0
200
400
300
600
500
current investment trends is unlikely to meet sDGs Current investment trends into the electricity and water sector are forecast to only meet 25% and 57% of that required to meet the SDGs for universal access to electricity and water in CwA countries
Figure 3 – Total investment need to meet universal access to electricity and water by 2030$US billion
Figure 4 – Current levels of access to electricity, potable water and sewage
Figure 5 – Forecast investment need of CwA countries including meeting SDGs
Figure 6 – Forecast investment need of the world including meeting SDGs
Electricity – $US 974 billion Road – $US 519 billion Water – $US 426 billion Remaining – $US 448 billion
Road – $US 33.67 trillion Electricity – $US 31.207 trillion Rail – $US 11.347 trillion Remaining – $US 20.971 trillion
Electricity Piped water
Improved sanitation
Average access 60% 41% 47%
Benin
Cote d’Ivo
ire
Ghana
Guinea
Morocco
Ethiopia
Rwanda
Senegal
Tunisia
Egypt
Figure 7 – Comparing drivers of investment need forecasts with investment need as a percentage of GDP, including meeting SDGs
% of GDP
SDGs Current trends
outlook.gihub.org
% of GDP $US billion
$200
0% $0
5%$400
10%$600
20% $1,000
15% $800 % of GDP $US billion
Benin
Cote d’Ivo
ire
Ghana
Guinea
Morocco
Ethiopia
Rwanda
Senegal
Tunisia
Egypt
% of GDP $US billion
5% $200
0% $0
10% $400 % of GDP $US billion
2%
0%
4%
5%
8% GDP growth rate Population growth rate Urbanisation growth rate