New Jersey Board of Public Utilities New Jersey Solar SREC Program

Completely Rebate-free since 2010

NREL SREC Webinar

1/18/12Mike Winka, Director NJBPU OCE

Scott Hunter, RE Program Manager NJBPU OCE

"Energy Year"

NEG Scen. Con-verted to

%

CON Scen. Con-verted to

%

POS Scen. Con-verted

to %

2005 n/a n/a n/a 0.01%2006 n/a n/a n/a 0.0170%2007 n/a n/a n/a 0.0393%2008 n/a n/a n/a 0.0817%2009 n/a n/a n/a 0.1600%2010 n/a n/a n/a 0.2210%

EY 2011 306 gwh 255 MW 6.68 MW 0.41% 0.38% 0.365% 0.3050%EY 2012 442 gwh 368 MW 47.55 MW 0.62% 0.54% 0.519% 0.3940%EY 2013 596 gwh 497 MW 92.03 MW 0.86% 0.73% 0.690% 0.4970%EY 2014 772 gwh 643 MW 137.74 MW 1.14% 0.95% 0.880% 0.6210%EY 2015 965 gwh 804 MW 181.33 MW 1.48% 1.19% 1.084% 0.7650%EY 2016 1,150 gwh 958 MW 202.79 MW 1.82% 1.41% 1.273% 0.9280%EY 2017 1,357 gwh 1131 MW 220.60 MW 2.23% 1.67% 1.480% 1.1180%EY 2018 1,591 gwh 1326 MW 240.56 MW 2.71% 1.95% 1.709% 1.3330%EY 2019 1,858 gwh 1548 MW 268.47 MW 3.28% 2.28% 1.966% 1.5720%EY 2020 2,164 gwh 1803 MW 308.53 MW 3.97% 2.66% 2.256% 1.8360%EY 2021 2,518 gwh 2098 MW 372.31 MW 4.82% 3.09% 2.587% 2.1200%EY 2022 2,928 gwh 2440 MW n/a MW n/a n/a n/aEY 2023 3,433 gwh 2861 MW n/a MW n/a n/a n/aEY 2024 3,989 gwh 3324 MW n/a MW n/a n/a n/aEY 2025 4,610 gwh 3842 MW n/a MW n/a n/a n/aEY 2026 5,316 gwh 4430 MW n/a MW n/a n/a n/aEY 2027+> 5,316 gwh 4430 MW n/a MW n/a n/a n/a

n/a

Comparison between Solar Advancement Act and RPS Solar % as of Jan. 2010

GWh Requirement Converted to % based upon Retail Sales

n/a

GWh Requirement

Converted to MW

n/an/a

n/a

n/an/an/an/an/a

n/an/a

n/a

n/an/an/a

Solar RPS Requirement

% as of 1/16/10

Est. Add't Capacity

Required over Current (from

%)

n/an/a

The Solar Advancement Act

(P.L.2009, c.289) vs. today’s RPS

Solar Installed Capacity Preliminary Data

• The preliminary installed solar capacity as of 12/31/11 is approximately 564 to 566 MW.

– Approximately 35 to 36 mw installed in current month

• The preliminary solar capacity project pipeline as of 12/31/11 is over 616 MW.

– Over 99% of pipeline projects are registered in the SRP program.

Solar Capacity

NJCEP Solar Pipeline Plus Installed Projects as of 11/30/11

Description Project Qty System Size (KW dc)

Pipeline Projects 4,966 599,375.9

Installed Projects 12,896 531,725.6

Totals 17,862 1,131,101.5

The capacity installed of the pipeline projects will depend on severalFactors including the federal incentives, LTC and SREC prices as well as the NJ Legislature actions and NJBPU regulatory and policy Direction.

Solar Installed Capacity Report

NJ Solar Installations by Year As of 11/30/11

Year # Projects Total kW Total Rebate $

2001 3 7.5 $ 37,145.00 2002 37 623.5 $ 2,424,694.07 2003 95 1,176.6 $ 5,323,410.81 2004 289 2,037.1 $ 10,581,974.70 2005 729 9,908.1 $ 46,235,896.76 2006 867 18,320.4 $ 78,086,786.34 2007 693 15,258.3 $ 58,122,386.02 2008 833 22,711.3 $ 44,923,416.05 2009 1350 57,254.7 $ 56,027,417.06 2010 3134 132,415.7 $ 46,008,608.46 2011 4866 272,012.5 $ 13,854,508.33

Total 12,896 531,725.6 $361,626,244

Solar Installed Capacity Report

NJ Solar Installations by Year As of 11/30/11

NJ Solar Installed Capacity by Year

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001-4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity

(MW

dc)

Capacity Added

Total Installed Capacity

Solar Projects by Interconnection Type

Installed Solar Projects as of 11/30/11

Interconnection Type Qty System Size Percent

Behind the meter 12,841 439,534.4 82.7%

Direct Grid Supply 55 92,191.2 17.3%

Totals 12,896 531,725.6 100.0%

Solar Project Pipeline as of 11/30/11

Interconnection Type Qty System Size Percent

Behind the meter 4,929 419,565.7 70.0%

Direct Grid Supply 37 179,810.1 30.0%

Totals 4,966 599,375.8 100.0%

Note: The Direct Grid Supply values above include approximately 47.6 MW of capacity from 42 PSE&G Solar 4 All and Pole Attached Solar projects.

Note: The Direct Grid Supply values above include approximately 15 MW of approved capacity from PSE&G Solar 4 All projects.

Solar Project Scrub Rate

• Deactivation Analysis by Expiration Date

– 12/01/2009 to 11/30/2011 (24 Months)

PROGRAM QUANTITY KW DC QUANTITY KW DC By QUANTITY By KW DC

REIP 732 8,974.2 4,297 45,297.9 17.0% 19.8%

SRP 347 40,384.7 2,151 261,396.6 16.1% 15.5%

DEACTIVATED PROJECTS ALL PROJECTS SCRUB PERCENT

Solar Installed Capacity Forecast As Of 11/30/11

• The 531.7 MW of solar capacity installed as of 11/30/11 the forecast of installed solar capacity for EY 2012 is estimated to be capable of producing approximately 596,800 to 611,000 SRECs during Energy year 2012.

• This equates to a range of 135.0% to 138.3% of the EY 2012 RPS requirement of 442,000 SRECs.

• This projection assumes past actions are a predictor of future activities which may not be correct.

• These are a number of factors that influence this projection including:• Will the installation pipeline continue when the federal investment tax credit

reverts from an upfront cash grant (a rebate) back to a tax credit?• Will the installation pipeline continue when the federal accelerated depreciation

is eliminated in 2012?• Given the reduction in the value of the SREC will the pace of installations

continue?

End Date 09/30/11 10/31/11 11/30/11 12/31/11 01/31/12 02/29/12 03/31/12 04/30/12 05/31/12

Forecast - Low 445.8 489.6 531.7 557.4 577.1 595.8 615.5 636.0 657.3

Forecast - High 445.8 489.6 531.7 565.7 594.7 621.2 651.1 682.8 715.2

Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW dc)

Solar Installed Capacity Forecast As Of 11/30/11

Cumulative Installed Capacity By Month (MW dc)

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

10/1

0

11/1

0

12/1

0

01/1

1

02/1

1

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1

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1

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1

06/1

1

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Period Ending

Cu

mla

tive

Cap

acit

y (M

W d

c)

Installed Capacity

Forecast - High

Forecast - Low

Solar RPS EY 2012 thru 2016 compared to current solar projection

Energy Year 2012 through 2016 solar RPS requirement

Energy Year MWh Equivalent MWs needed as of June 1 of the EY to met the solar

RPS

Current projected MW to May

31, 2012

Percentage of solar RPS

(%)

2012 442,000 368 600-700 133 -136

2013 596,000 496 600-700 120 - 140

2014 772,000 643 600-700 93 - 108

2015 965,000 804 600-700 75 - 88

2016 1,150,000 958 600-700 63 - 73

EDC SREC Program Capacity

• PSE&G Solar Loan Program – 80 MW– Loan on net metered projects completion for 50% of cost at a set

rate 6% for residential and 11% for all others - pay back by SRECs;

• PSE&G Solar for All – 80 MW – Grid supply projects – rate based at the WACC

• JCPL, ACE and RECO SREC solicitation 64 MW– Net metered projects -developers bid in the SREC price and term

needed to build solar – payments set for term based on the contract

• The EDC SREC Program are currently approximately 20 of the SREC market

SREC Auction Proceeds are uncertain due to unknown future SREC prices.

Does not include any environmental benefits of solar, the impacts on the transmission and distribution system, or any other costs or benefits of solar other than those directly related to the EDC Solar Long term Contract Program.

Ratepayer Exposure for Long-term Financing Programs Only

Ratepayer Exposure is not for the overall SREC Program, but only for the Long-term financing Program.

13DRAFT

Revised Staff Options

1. Increase the solar RPS

• Establish an incremental increase in the solar RPS to address the oversupplied SREC market. This increase in the solar RPS would be a specific set aside for the EDC SREC programs and would implement the Board’s solar policies for both economic and environmental benefits.

. Virtual Increase in the Solar RPS only increase the EDC program capacity.

• Establish additional EDC SREC program capacity. This increase in EDC SREC programs can be set aside to implement the Board’s solar policies for both economic and environmental benefits. In this manner the solar developers can continue to build solar based on the Board’s policies. This will also keep downward pressure on the SREC prices and make the EDC SREC program very price competitive.

Both of these proposals also address the volatility in SREC market by establishing additional capacity in a price competitive manner.

One of the key components in proceeding with one of these two positions is that the ratepayer must see an overall cost savings from the current status for this solar capacity increase – basically a net zero sum gain for the ratepayer – More solar at a lower overall cost

More information on

New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program

at www.NJCleanEnergy.com

or b.hunter@bpu.state.nj.us

m.winka@bpu.state.nj.us

609 777 3335

solartransition@njcleanenergy.com

http://www.njcleanenergy.com/renewable-energy/program-updates-and-background-information/solar-transition/solar-transition