New Report Template · With regard to serial vouching, as described in section 8.2.1, from the ninety‐nine (99) poll book entries where the name of the person vouching was recorded,

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Polling Day Registrants in the Riding of Trinity–Spadina for the 39th Canadian General Election

Confidential

May 1, 2007

May 1, 2007 Confidential Page i


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CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION................................................................... 1

1.1 Background................................................................... 1 1.2 Terms of Engagement.................................................. 2 1.3 Scope of this Report & Restriction on Its Use .......... 3 1.4 Statement of Qualifications ........................................ 3

2.0 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS................................................... 4

2.1 Overall Conclusion ...................................................... 4 2.2 Defining the Polling Day Registrant Universe ........ 5 2.3 Verification of Polling Day Registrant

Addresses ...................................................................... 5 2.4 Potential Instances of Polling Day Registrants

Having Voted More Than Once................................. 6 2.5 Validity of Address of Polling Day Registrants ...... 6 2.6 Vouching and Serial Vouching .................................. 7

3.0 SCOPE OF REVIEW............................................................... 8

3.1 Information Relied Upon............................................ 8 3.2 Limitations on Scope ................................................... 9

4.0 OVERVIEW OF THE POLLING DAY REGISTRATION PROCESS ................................................ 11

4.1 Polling Day Registration Process............................. 11

May 1, 2007 Confidential Page ii

4.2 Post Election Data Capture....................................... 13 4.3 Process Polling Day Registrants .............................. 14

5.0 DEFINING THE POPULATION OF POLLING DAY REGISTRANTS ..................................................................... 17

5.1 Completeness of Polling Day Registrant Population................................................................... 17

6.0 VERIFICATION OF POLLING DAY REGISTRANT ADDRESSES.......................................................................... 21

6.1 Overview of Process Undertaken ............................ 21 6.2 Summary of Polling Day Registrant Address

Verification.................................................................. 24

7.0 EXAMINATION AND IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL MULTIPLE VOTING BY POLLING DAY REGISTRANTS ........................................................... 28

7.1 Potential Multiple Voting – Transfers and Moves........................................................................... 29

7.2 Potential Multiple Voting – Advance Polls and Special Ballots ..................................................... 30

7.3 Potential Multiple Voting – Multiple Registrations on Polling Day.................................... 31

8.0 OTHER AREAS OF EXAMINATION............................... 32

8.1 Validity of Addresses Provided............................... 32 8.2 Vouching and Provision of Identification .............. 35

May 1, 2007 Confidential Page iii

APPENDICES Additional Supporting Detail A1. Example Registration Certificate A2. Distribution of Polling Day Registrants Within Trinity–

Spadina A3. Detailed Description of the Polling Day Registrant

Address Verification Process and Procedures A4. Examination of Potential Multiple Voting by Polling

Day Registrants A5. Navigant Consulting Testing of Work Performed by

Elections Canada A6. Relevant Identified Sections of the Canada Elections Act

May 1, 2007 Confidential Page 1



1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background We understand that members of the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs had concerns stemming from the nature and extent of the polling day registrations in the federal electoral district of Trinity–Spadina for the 39th Canadian General Election held on January 23, 2006. As a result, a member of the Committee, on June 13, 2006, suggested that the Chief Electoral Officer undertake an audit with respect to this polling day registration. The Chief Electoral Officer agreed to undertake the review and to report back to the Committee upon receipt of the audit report.

Initially, Elections Canada undertook a number of tasks internally with a view to responding to the above‐noted commitment made by the Chief Electoral Officer. In August 2006, Navigant Consulting was approached by Elections Canada to undertake an external independent and objective examination related to the polling day registration in the electoral district of Trinity–Spadina for the 39th General Election.

At the outset of our engagement, Elections Canada had identified that some 10,000 individuals registered to vote in Trinity–Spadina on January 23, 2006, polling day for the 39th Canadian General Election.


1.2 Terms of Engagement

The primary objective of the Navigant Consulting engagement was to perform an examination and review of the polling day registration of electors for the electoral district of Trinity–Spadina that would seek to:

a) determine an accurate and complete picture of the polling day registration; and

b) determine the accuracy of the information recorded.

In order to meet this overall objective, Navigant Consulting was asked to address the following questions regarding the Polling Day Registrants in Trinity–Spadina:

1. How many Polling Day Registrants were there?

2. Were the Polling Day Registrants resident at the address they provided when they registered to vote?

3. Were the addresses provided by the Polling Day Registrants residential and located in the Electoral District and Polling Division where they registered?

4. Did any Polling Day Registrants also vote through another method or at another polling station?

The structure of this report reflects our findings regarding these four questions. Each question is addressed in a separate chapter, supported by Appendices containing additional details on the investigation. Navigant Consulting was asked to determine the facts concerning polling day registration in Trinity–Spadina, and not to explain why registration rates were high in this particular electoral district. For that reason, only the facts are presented here, without extensive explanation or commentary.


1.3 Scope of this Report & Restriction on Its Use

This report has been prepared for the purposes of assisting the Chief Electoral Officer to fulfill his undertaking to the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs to review and examine the polling day registration in Trinity–Spadina for the 39th General Election.

This report is based on our review of the documents available to date as described in Section 3 of this report. In the event that further documents or other information become available that could impact our findings, we reserve the right to review such records and reconsider and amend the findings set out in this report.

1.4 Statement of Qualifications

Gary Timm, a Managing Director of Navigant Consulting and a Chartered Accountant designated as a specialist in Investigative and Forensic Accounting, and Ron Gelinas, a Director of Navigant Consulting, have prepared this report with assistance from other professionals under their direction and supervision.

Navigant Consulting is Canada’s largest and most experienced independent forensic accounting practice. It specializes exclusively in the practice of forensic and investigative accounting. In Canada, the practice comprises professional staff in Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City and Vancouver. Since 1975, these professionals have proven their knowledge, skill and experience in numerous cases dealing with nearly every type of financial dispute or investigative problem faced by corporations, law firms, insurance companies, financial institutions, governments and private individuals.


2.0 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

Based on our assessment of the information described in sections 5 to 8 of this report, and subject to the limitations of scope identified in section 3.2, we provide the following findings.

Further particulars and the support for these findings are addressed in the remainder of this report and appendices.

2.1 Overall Conclusion

During the June 13, 2006 session of the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs, the Honourable Raymond Simard posed the following:

“I didn’t quite get my last comment in last time, and it was with regard to the Trinity–Spadina riding, with 10,000 people showing up on that particular day.

It seems to me, Mr. Kingsley, if I were the returning officer I would have an audit of that riding. If that’s the highest in Canada, I would take the highest in Canada and find out if it was actually fraud that was being committed, or it was a matter of demographics. …..”

In the context of the address verification of polling day registrations, we did not identify any indication which would suggest that there was an organized or systematic attempt to influence the outcome of the election results in Trinity–Spadina by way of inappropriate Polling Day Registrants. This conclusion is based on:

i) our understanding of the polling day registration system and its inherent controls,

ii) our assessment of the opportunity and possibility that a significant number of people would work together to be able to affect the results of the Trinity–Spadina electoral district, and


iii) the results of our examination of Polling Day Registrants, including our examination related to the potential for multiple voting by these individuals.

2.2 Defining the Polling Day Registrant Universe

Using as its source, the Final List of Electors, which reflected all of the elector list changes made after polling day, Elections Canada initially identified 10,040 Polling Day Registrants who had registered. Upon a more extensive review of all the available source documentation, namely the Registration Certificates and poll books, for Trinity–Spadina, we have determined that there were at least 10,738 registrations on polling day for the 39th General Election.

Given that two (2) poll books could not be located, we can not conclude on the completeness of the Polling Day Registrant population, however, we have concluded that it is unlikely significant additional registrations exist undetected.

2.3 Verification of Polling Day Registrant Addresses

In the course of our examination, 10,136, or 94.4%, of the 10,738 names and addresses of Polling Day Registrants were matched to independent address sources or verified through direct contact. The names and addresses of the remaining 602 registrants could not be verified, however, this does not mean that these Polling Day Registrants did not reside at the address recorded in their respective Registration Certificates.

Of the 602 names and addresses that could not be verified, there were forty‐three (43) Polling Day Registrant names which listed their address as that of a shelter. These names could not be verified at the shelters due to privacy concerns. If these names are taken out of the total population of Polling Day Registrants, the verified names and addresses would increase to 94.8%.

In addition, we note that a number of these non‐verified Polling Day Registrants appear to be in areas that house university students or in areas where significant new construction has


taken place. Therefore it is not unexpected that we could not reach these individuals through direct contact, due to restricted accessibility to certain buildings, including residences associated with the University of Toronto and apartment buildings where superintendents refused our request to enter or to provide information.

2.4 Potential Instances of Polling Day Registrants Having Voted More Than Once

In reviewing the potential that the Polling Day Registrants in Trinity–Spadina may have voted more than once during the 39th General Election, we found:

i) One (1) instance from a sample of 344 where a Polling Day Registrant may have voted in another electoral district as well as in Trinity–Spadina.

ii) Four (4) instances out of 991 where a Polling Day Registrant may have voted more than once within the riding of Trinity–Spadina.

iii) Five (5) additional instances where a Polling Day Registrant may have voted at an Advance Poll either in another electoral district or in Trinity–Spadina.

Each of these instances has been reported to the Chief Electoral Officer who may then decide to refer them to the Commissioner of Canada Elections for further review.

2.5 Validity of Address of Polling Day Registrants

In reviewing the validity of the addresses provided by the Polling Day Registrants of Trinity–Spadina, including on‐site visits to the address, we determined the following:

• Three (3) of the addresses were for a building that appeared not to exist;

• Four (4) addresses appeared to be non‐residential; and

• Three (3) addresses were located outside of Trinity–Spadina.


2.6 Vouching and Serial Vouching

Based on the available information, we identified 281 Polling Day Registrants, or 2.6%, of 10,738 Polling Day Registrants, who were registered by being vouched for by another elector to attest to the identity and/or residency qualifications of the Polling Day Registrant.

With regard to serial vouching, as described in section 8.2.1, from the ninety‐nine (99) poll book entries where the name of the person vouching was recorded, we identified two (2) instances of serial vouching. Both instances consisted of a group of three (3) people, all of whom registered as having the same last name.


3.0 SCOPE OF REVIEW

3.1 Information Relied Upon

During the course of our examination, a variety of sources of information and methodologies, both direct and indirect, were used to verify the names and addresses of the Polling Day Registrants of Trinity–Spadina for the 39th General Election.

Elections Canada Electronic Information

1. A database of the 10,040 selected records initially identified as Polling Day Registrants, extracted from the Final List of Electors for Trinity–Spadina.

2. A database version of the full Final List of Electors for Trinity–Spadina.

3. Extracts from Elections Canada and other independent administrative source databases, such as Canada Revenue Agency and Ontario Driver Licence records, pertaining to the Polling Day Registrants.

4. Elections Canada Corporate Address Register.

Documentation Reviewed from Trinity–Spadina Polls

5. Copies of the available Registration Certificates completed by Polling Day Registrants at the polls.

6. Copies of the available Correction Certificates completed by electors on polling day to correct name and address errors.

7. Copies of the available poll books, which list the names and addresses of Polling Day Registrants, the names of registrants and vouchers who registered by vouching, as well as recording oaths taken at each polling station.

8. Copies of the available Official List of Electors, used to administer the vote in Trinity–Spadina.


Documentation From Electoral Districts Other than Trinity–Spadina

9. Copies of the Official List of Electors for certain polling divisions.

Discussions With Representatives of Elections Canada

10. Discussions with the Returning Officer and Assistant Returning Officer for Trinity–Spadina as well as the Field Liaison Officer responsible for Trinity–Spadina, in addition to other Metro Toronto Electoral Districts.

11. Discussions with employees of Elections Canada, specifically in the areas of Operations, Register and Geography Directorate and the Legal Services Directorate.

External Information

12. Electronic telephone directories.

13. Navigant Consulting independent third‐party data source in the information management industry used to match Polling Day Registrant name and address information.

These documents were made available to Navigant Consulting for review purposes as an agent of the Chief Electoral Officer.

3.2 Limitations on Scope

In certain circumstances, the information, listed in section 3.1 above, was not complete or was deemed not able to be accessed to assist in our examination. In this regard, we note the following areas where the scope of our work was limited.

Of the documentation reviewed for the Trinity–Spadina Electoral District, we note that:

• Official Lists of Electors were not found by Elections Canada for seven (7) of the 250 polling stations identified for Trinity–Spadina.


Of the 397 Polling Divisions outside of Trinity–Spadina that were reviewed, Official Lists of Electors were not found for thirty‐one (31) Polling Divisions. Also, for an additional five (5) Polling Divisions, the Official Lists of Electors were not found for all of the polling stations within the Polling Division.

• Poll books were not found by Elections Canada for two (2) of the 250 polling stations; and

• Registration certificates were not found for as many as 1,205 of the 10,738 records that we have identified as Polling Day Registrants.

Elections Canada would not normally detect whether Deputy Returning Officers have returned their poll books, Official Lists or Registration Certificates, as required by the Canada Elections Act, to the office of the Returning Officer at the end of polling day. We understand that section 540 of the Act requires that these documents be sealed after the counting process on election night and that they remain sealed except for very limited circumstances.

Due to the fact that this review was conducted in the new academic year commencing September 2006, we were unable to reach individuals who recorded their addresses known to be a residence of the University of Toronto during the 2005 – 2006 academic year. Attempts to obtain access to student records were made to the President of the University, but due to legal restrictions, this was not possible. In addition, we were unable, due to privacy concerns, to conduct visits at addresses known to be shelters for the homeless or abused. In many cases, we were unable to gain access to apartment buildings to make direct contact with electors, or were refused by building superintendents when we asked them to identify whether Polling Day Registrants resided at the addresses given on polling day.


4.0 OVERVIEW OF THE POLLING DAY REGISTRATION PROCESS

Elections Canada maintains a National Register of Electors on an ongoing basis between elections. The National Register of Electors is a database of Canadians qualified to vote in federal elections and contains only basic information about electors: name, sex, date of birth and address. When an election is called, Elections Canada uses the National Register of Electors to produce a Preliminary List of Electors, which is used as the basis to generate, for each registered elector, a Voter Identification Card identifying when and where they may vote. The Preliminary List of Electors is also provided to candidates for their campaign purposes.

During an election period, a number of additional initiatives, such as target revision (door‐to‐door revision in selected buildings and neighbourhoods where the electors list is known to be less complete or up‐to‐date), are implemented prior to election day to “revise” the Preliminary List of Electors and produce the Revised List of Electors and later the Official List of Electors. This latter list is used to determine the eligibility of an elector to vote at a given polling station on polling day. However, if an eligible elector’s name is not on the Official List of Electors, it is still possible to register on election day to vote, as set out in s.161(1) of the Canada Elections Act; see Appendix A6 of this report. These individuals are referred to as Polling Day Registrants.

4.1 Polling Day Registration Process

The polling day elector registration process involves completing and signing a Registration Certificate (see Appendix A1 for a sample form). Part of the requirements of completing the Registration Certificate is to establish the elector’s identity and residence in order to verify that the name and address information provided by the registrant are valid, and that the elector resides in the area served by that particular polling division. This is done either by providing identification (as set out by Elections Canada) or by being vouched (attested to) by another elector whose name is included in the List of Electors


for that polling division. The elector takes one copy of the completed certificate to the polling station at which he or she is to vote, and provides the form to the Deputy Returning Officer. An entry documenting the registration is then made by the Deputy Returning Officer in a ledger referred to as a poll book. The Polling Day Registrant’s name and address are recorded. This transaction is witnessed by the Poll Clerk as well as by candidate representatives, should they be in attendance at the poll.

In the event that the Polling Day Registrant’s identity is established by vouching, an oath is required by both the Polling Day Registrant and the registered elector vouching for the Polling Day Registrant. The fact that these oaths are taken, is also recorded separately in the poll book.

In contrast, electors whose names already appear on the Official Lists of Electors, present themselves at their polling station and give their name and address to the Deputy Returning Officer. Their record on the Official List is drawn through with a pen and ruler to show they have voted, and they are handed their ballot.

Registration is normally carried out by a Registration Officer, who serves electors for multiple polling divisions that vote at a single site. Where only a single poll is located at a site, or where designated by the Returning Officer, the Deputy Returning Officer for that poll is directed to register electors.

As outlined in the Canada Elections Act, Deputy Returning Officers and Poll Clerks are selected from lists of potential election day workers provided by the candidates of the parties of the candidates that finished first and second, respectively, in the previous election.

After the polls have closed and the ballots have been counted, the Registration Officer’s copy of each certificate is returned in


a secure fashion to the Returning Officer for data entry. The Deputy Returning Officer’s copies of Registration Certificates, along with any Correction Certificates, are placed into a separate envelope and returned to the Returning Officer for document storage. The poll book, the Official List of Electors, the ballots and any other forms and documents used at the polling station are placed in a secure poll bag. This poll bag is then sealed, signed by the Deputy Returning Officer, Poll Clerk and any candidate representatives that might be present. It is then placed inside the ballot box, which itself is sealed and signed, and returned to the Returning Office. These poll bags are then sent, along with all other electoral materials, to Elections Canada Headquarters to be stored for a period of at least one year, as prescribed by s.540(1) of the Canada Elections Act, as shown in Appendix A6.

4.2 Post Election Data Capture

At the Returning Office after polling day, the information from registration and correction certificates is entered into REVISE, a field database application used by the Returning Officer for management of the list of electors during the election period.

The Registration Certificate allows an elector to provide a previous address, in order to help identify a pre‐existing record that requires update elsewhere in the country, rather than assuming that all Polling Day Registrants are new electors. In the event that the Revising Agents are able to definitively match the elector to a pre‐existing record in the REVISE database, the elector status code is changed to “Transfer” or “Move”. An elector code of “Transfer” means the previous record for this elector was in a different Electoral District, whereas “Move” means the previous record for this elector was within the same Electoral District, but in a different polling division. When an elector code of Transfer or Move is assigned to an elector, the previous record is struck from the list of electors of the Polling Division associated with the previous record. When an existing registration for the elector cannot be found in REVISE, the


Polling Day Registrant is assigned an elector code of “Add”, meaning that they are a new elector.

Once the data capture and other post‐election tasks are complete in each Polling Division, the Registration Certificates are forwarded to Elections Canada in Ottawa for secure storage. The REVISE data is also returned to Elections Canada Headquarters normally within ten days after election day. At that time, in addition to quality checks done on the data, methodology specialists in the National Register of Electors program match these data sets in order to identify duplicate elector registrations. Using more sophisticated methods than are available in the field version of REVISE, many thousands of new registrations are paired with existing records for electors on the National Register of Electors, allowing old records to be removed (as if the Revising Agents had found the pre‐existing registration in REVISE).

The result of the data capture is the creation of the Final List of Electors which is then copied to CD and provided to members of Parliament and to registered political parties for the electoral districts where they ran candidates, as required by the Canada Elections Act. The Final List of Electors is also used to update the National Register of Electors.

4.3 Process Polling Day Registrants

Although the polling day registration process is well defined by Elections Canada, there are, invariably, various situations that arise at polling stations during polling day. As a result, there is sometimes confusion that can lead to an elector unnecessarily completing a Registration Certificate even though the elector is already registered under their current address, and is included in the Official List of Electors for their assigned Polling Division.

Based on our discussions with Elections Canada representatives, and our review of the documentation, there appear to be two general types of situations that result in Registration Certificates being generated when they did not


need to be. We have termed these “Process Polling Day Registrants”.

In the first situation, an elector that is a resident of the Electoral District and is registered to vote goes to the wrong polling station to vote. Since the Official List of Electors is unique for each poll, and each polling station has access to only its own list, the elector will not be on the Official List of Electors at this Polling Division. Consequently, they will either be told to go to their proper polling station to vote, based on checking the elector’s address against the poll key, a street and address range description of each polling division, or, although technically not allowed, will complete a Registration Certificate and vote, resulting in a “process Polling Day Registrant”. In some cases, the registration officer may be uncertain whether the range of addresses associated to a given poll is correct or not, and allows the registration to take place because the elector is clearly resident in the electoral district.

The second situation arises when the elector goes to the correct Polling Division where they are already registered but, for various reasons, completes a Registration Certificate unnecessarily. A non‐exhaustive list of possible instances of this nature include:

• The elector’s name is different than what is on the Official List of Electors (requiring a correction certificate rather than a Registration Certificate);

• The elector’s name has been struck from the Official List of Electors indicating that they have either already voted (requiring the taking of an oath, rather than a Registration Certificate) or that they were removed during revision (requiring a Registration Certificate to ‘undo’ the erroneous removal);


• The elector gets in the registration desk line before determining whether they are on the Official List of Electors, and the registration officer fails to check the list; or

• The Deputy Returning Officer, or Registration Officer, at the polling station does not find the elector’s name on the alphabetically‐sorted Official List of Electors.

Polling Day Registrant Universe Definition

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2,000

0

1,000

11,000

POLLING DAY REGISTRANT UNIVERSE – 10,738

Polling Day Registrants extracted from Final List of Electors 10,040

Polling Day Registrants eliminated due to duplicate data entry (28)

9,840

898

Registrations in poll books that were not captured on Final List of Electors 1,929

Process Polling Day Registrants –Already on Official List of Electors (1,053)

Registration Certificates that were not captured on Final List of Electors 22

Poll Book and Registration Certificate Polling Day Registrants Not Captured

in Final List of Electors

Polling Day Registrants Extracted From Final List of Electors

Polling Day Registrants based

on Final List of Electors

9,840

Polling Day Registrants not captured on Final List of Electors - 898

Polling Day Registrants eliminated because they were corrections (67)

Process Polling Day Registrants –Already on Official List of Electors (105)


5.0 DEFINING THE POPULATION OF POLLING DAY REGISTRANTS

The first step in the process of determining an accurate and complete picture of polling day registration in Trinity–Spadina consisted of reviewing the available information to define the total Polling Day Registrant population for the electoral district.

The chart on the opposite page provides a summary of the number of Polling Day Registrants and how they were identified.

The following sections outline the process that was undertaken by Elections Canada and subsequently by Navigant Consulting in determining the total population of Polling Day Registrants summarized above.

5.1 Completeness of Polling Day Registrant Population

The Polling Day Registrant population was determined initially by Elections Canada, and then verified and updated by Navigant Consulting.

5.1.1 Elections Canada Generation of the Polling Day Registrant Database

Upon commencing the review internally, Elections Canada used the Final List of Electors to create a list of all possible Polling Day Registrants for Trinity–Spadina based on the elector code assigned to the record and the transaction date of the most recent update.

The list was created by using an electronic query of the Final List of Electors for Trinity–Spadina to identify all records created on January 23, 2006 (election day) or later, and having an elector code, as described in section 4.2, which classified the record as an Add, Transfer In, or Move. The result was a list of 10,040 records deemed by Elections Canada to be Polling Day Registrants.

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Rd

Rox

ton

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oria

St

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oria

St

Park

Rd

Park

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British Columbia Rd

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avel

ock

St

Lakeshore Ave

Clu

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Cluny

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Bay

St

Bay

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ParkC

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sta

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men

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St

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Oss

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South Island Rd

Gor

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leAv

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Beat

rice

St

Col

lege

Pl

Spen

cerA

ve

Paul

ine

Ave

Russett Ave

Carstowe Rd

Armstrong Ave

Millicent St

Sale

mAv

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Bartl

ettA

veN

Wes

tmor

elan

dA

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Bris

tolA

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Polson St

Del

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Dev

onsh

irePl

Olympic Island Rd

Adm

iralR

d

Rem

embr

ance

Dr

Whitney Ave

Castle Frank CresBe

atric

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Beaumont Rd

Croatia St Gla

dsto

neAv

e

Shannon St

Dundonald St

Gladstone

Ave

Ontario

St

Edgar Ave

Roxborough St W

Isla

ndPa

rkTr

ail

Mitchell Ave

Montrose

Ave

Mur

ray

St

McKenzie Ave

Elgin Ave

Tranby Ave

Boswell Ave

Del

awar

eA

ve

Chicora Ave

Rob

inso

nP

l

Oak St

Pears Ave

Lakeshore Ave

Skey

Lane

Nanton

Ave

Bulwer St

FreelandS

t

Dal

ton

Rd

Mackenzie

Cres

RobertsonCres

How

land

Ave

Coo per S

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tral H

ospi

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ane

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d

Seat

onSt

Scollard St

Ham

mon

d

Pl

Lynn Williams St

Berryman St

Fenn

ings

St

Gloucester St

Charles St E

Stewart St

Breadalbane St

Broo

kfie

ldS

t

Aberdeen Ave

Camden St

Mercer St

SaskatchewanRd

Dacotah AveWyandot Ave

Cottingham St

DunbarR

d

Piper St

HeydonParkRd

Rowanwood Ave

McMaster Ave

Marchmount Rd

Wal

mer

Rd

Haw

thor

nAv

e

Oneida Ave

MacPherson Ave

Station St

Mow

atAv

e

Ros

smor

eR

d

Fras

erAv

e

King

'sC

olle

geR

d

Dar

tnel

lAve

Hallam St

Burnfield Ave

Hooper Ave

Yarmouth Rd

Manchester Ave

Newfoundland

Rd

Yarmouth Gdns

Essex St

Ros

sS

t

Birch Ave

A c htm

anL a

ne

GalbraithRd

Fran

kK

ovac

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ne

Geo

rge

St

Maitland Pl

Linden St

Palmerston Gdns

Selby St

Lombard St

LagoonRd

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eefe

Lane

Cro

ftS

t

VictoriaLane

Bond

St

Rolyat St

Can

ada

Blvd

Yorkville ParkDr

Mad

ison

Ave

Oriole

Ave

Wel

lesl

eyPl

Hur

onS

t

Nottawa Ave

OrdnanceSt

Severn St

Melita Ave

Rob

ertS

t

Ashworth Ave

BrightSt

Van

De Water Cres

Draper St

Balm

uto

St

Wal

mer

Rd

Glen Morris St

Lyn dhur

s t

Cr t

Washington Ave

Classic Ave

Rob

lock

eAv

e

Ric h ar d son

St

Gibson Ave

Bonar Pl

Moutray St

Western Battery Rd

Mac

klem

Ave

Cottingham St

AvondaleRd

Gordon St

Broa

dcas

tLan

e

Bank St

Florence St

Portugal Sq

Kend

alAv

e

Belsh aw

Pl

DouvilleCrt

Scadding Crt

Nova

ScotiaAve

d'Arcy St

Churchill Ave

Emily

St

Min

ho

Blvd

Bancroft Ave

Saint Raymond Hts

Co

Middleton St

St Andrews St

Cro

ftSt

Lipp

inco

ttS

t

Marshall St

Phipps St

Nor

thco

teAv

e

Argy

leP

l

Lindsey Ave

Frankish Ave

Atkins Ave

Win

dsor

St

Muir Ave

Wellesley Lane

Beac

onsf

ield

Ave

Perry Lane

Lisg

arS

t

Ontario

Place

Blvd

Webster Ave

Derm

ott Pl

Inkerman St

Nas

mith

Ave

Wid

mer

St

Quebec St

Mau

dS

t

Giff

ord

St

Thorburn Ave

Temple Ave

Wychcrest Ave

First StSecond St

Rusholm

ePark

Cres

Que

ens

Park

Hen

ryS

t

Me redithCres

Arno

ldAv

e

G

Prince Arthur Ave

Nelson St

LeonardPl

LyndhurstAve

SackvilleSt

Bishop St

Salisbury Ave

Farq

uhar

sLa

ne

Noble St

Millington St

Hec

torA

ve

Ramsden Park Rd

Onondaga Ave

Lake

view

Ave

Ree

sSt

ScrivenerSq

Collahie St

Earnbridge St

St.

Jam

esC

rt

McF

arre

nsLa

ne

Rai

nsAv

e

Rachael St

Garrison

Rd

Fran

kC

res

Cross St

Castleview Ave

Court St

OaklandsAve

Chestnut Park Rd

Arc

herSt

Frichot Ave

PoplarPlains

Cres

UniversityAve

Powell Ave

Craftsm

an

Lane

St. E

n oc h

'sSq

Peel Ave

Milky Way

Carus Ave

StonehouseCres

Bedf

ord

Rd

Albert

Fr an c kP

l

Walnut Ave

Albert St

Alma Ave

Chr

istie

St

Dufferin ParkAve

McAlpine St

McGill St

Del

awar

eA

ve

Third St

YoYo

Ma

Lane

Granby St

WaterlooAve

Sylvan Ave

Con

cord

Ave

Larc

hSt

B.P.

Nic

olLa

ne

Lindsey Ave

HighlandAve

Fifth St

Monteith St

Fourth St

Lamport

Ave

Wood St

Oxley St

Bonnycast le

St

Rus

holm

eR

d

Hagerman St

Eden Pl

Grange Rd

Ros

eAv

e

Sidn

eySt

St. P

aul's

Sq

Temperance St

Tadd leC

r eekR

d

Fort York Blvd

St. Albans Sq

Gra

nge

Pl

Whitaker Ave

Lancaster Ave

Isabella St

Abe

llSt

Mel

bour

neP

l

Orde St

Rebecca St

MathersfieldDr

Edm

Gat

e

Don

naS

haw

Lane

Alexander Pl

Tow

erR

d

TrinityD

r

Gro

veAv

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Glasgow

St

DenisonSq

Wilton St

Brun

elC

rt

Earl Pl

Pete

rSt

Mai

tland

Terr

Hanna

Ave

Henderson Ave

Walton St

Maj

orSt

Prospect St

Surr

eyP

l

Mac

hells

Ave

Nav

yW

har f

Crt

Grosvenor St

Rob

lock

eAv

e

Willis St

Mol

son

St

Hoskin Ave

Southview Ave

Canniff St

Treford Pl

Cay

ley

Lane

Fernbank Ave

BellwoodsPk

AbbeyLane

Dewson St

Harrison St

Hepbourne St

BrockCres

Ellen

Ave

Lipp

inco

ttS

t

Pine HillRd

Gore St

Collier St

Dewson St

Halton St

Douro St

Hillcrest Dr

Vermont Ave

Sloping Sky Mews

Baldwin St

Derby St

ChesleyAve

Pearl St

Herrick St

Wre

ntha

mPl

Hou

sey

St

Olive Ave

Brun

swic

kAv

e

Follis Ave

Hallam St

London St

Logie Pl

Cluny Ave

Lobb Ave

Sale

mAv

e

Northumberland St

McClear Pl

Humbert St

Richmond St E

Scott Lane

Shanly St

Ontario

St

Dewson St

BartonAve

Scadding Ave

Edg

edal

eR

d

Brown'sLane

Jean

S

Wes

tmor

elan

dA

ve

Queens Quay E

Old

York

Lane

Sale

mAv

e

Small St

Hillcrest Dr

Brandon Ave

Austin Terr

GerrardStE

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wAv

e

Sully Cres

Geary Ave

StricklandAve

Pem

brok

eS

t

Pullan Pl

Glen

Edyth

Pl

Dan

Leck

ieW

ay

AlbertaC

ir

BrocktonAve

ErinSt

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tbou

rnAv

e

GildersleevePl

Melinda St

MichaelSweetAve

Wel

lesl

eyAv

e

MackenzieCres

Critchley Lane

RegalRd

Laur

ierA

ve

CinderAve

Haz

elto

nAv

e

Hom

ewoo

dAv

e

QueensPa rk

Sixth St

g l Rd

StanleyAve

Lambertlodge Ave

Clinton Pl

Cumberland St

Bremner Blvd

Lake Shore Blvd E

LaP

lant

eA

ve

L aS

cala

Lan e

Page St

PardeeAve

HawthornGdns

Elm

sley

Pl

Wal

mer

Rd

Berti St

Alcorn Ave

ParkviewAve

Pemberton

St

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Pl

Mon

trose

Ave

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Cen

treAv

e

Sac kvil leG

re en

Pow

erS

t

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phS

alsb

erg

Lane

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Bord

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t

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allA

ve

Brac

onda

le

BernardAve

Casim

ir St

HeenanPl

Wal

ker

Ave

Liberty St

Front St W

Baden St

Sain

tTho

mas

St

New St

RussellSt

ChestnutParkR

d

Shank St

Raw

lingsAv e

Wolseley St

Acores Ave

NancyPocock

Pl

Bow

man

St

Grange Ave

AnnexLane

SenecaAve

Colborne St

Irwin Ave

JordanSt

Atla

ntic

Ave

Chippewa

Cres

CawthraSq

Mor

rison

St

VirginPl

Hic

kory

S t

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Met

calfe

St

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Lane

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Ave

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ling

Ave

SaintDavidWalk

University

Ave

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t

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ndO

pera

Lane

Lead

erLa

ne

Glenholme Pl

Drumsnab Rd

Bast

ion

St

Nunavut Rd

Hillsboro Ave

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Bola

ndLa

ne

University

Ave

Giv

ins

St

Dun

can

St

Sum

ach

St

Dale Ave

Summerhill Ave

Alba

nyA

ve

Parr St

CourtneyPl

Willcocks St

AncroftPl

Ros

eAv

e

KempAve

HayterSt

Bran

tSt

Jam

esS

t

Maple Ave

Adel

aide

Pl

Asquith Ave

Reg

entS

t

Price St

Gra

ceS

t

Saint Joseph St

O'Keefe

Lane

Mon

trose

Ave

Bartl

ettA

ve

Man

ning

Ave

She ardS

t

Mill St

Saint Anne's Rd

Manitoba Dr

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Fleet St

Rol

ston

Ave

Pontiac

Ave

Front St E

FitzroyTerr

Turn

Tyn d

all

Ave

Ea s te rnP

l

Wilkins

Ave

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Ston

ecut

ters

Lane

Elm Ave

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Pl

MacPherson Ave

Fed e ralS

t

Omaha Ave

Fort

Rou

ille

St

FosterPl

Essex St

Leon

ard

Ave

Pendrith St

Augu

sta

Ave Cecil St

HighlandGdns

PirandelloS

t

Berk

eley

St

Mila

nS

t

Ont

ario

St

Tor ont oS

t

Housey St

WiltonSt

Saint David St

White'sPl

SaintBartholomewSt

Poul

ette

St

Barn

aby

Pl

Cha

rlotte

St

Cottingham St

Amelia St

Gen

oaSt

Remembrance Dr

Summerhill Ave

Binscarth Rd

EuclidPl

Rus

holm

eR

d

Belle

vue

Ave

FortYork Blvd

Ont

ario

St

Sullivan St

Melita Ave

ScottSt

TracyS

t

Gle

nR

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Soho Sq

Chippew

aAve

Wellington St W

Oxford St

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t

Mas

sey

St

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ison

Ave

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St

Beac

onsf

ield

Ave

George

St

Nassau St

Iann

uzzi

St

CarrStreet

Crt

Sa intN

i cho lasS

t

Whitehall Rd

Sussex Ave

Baldwin St

Plymouth Ave

TrinityS

t

Rusholme ParkCres

VankoughnetSt

Palm

erst

onAv

e

Withrow St

Melville Ave

Austin Terr

Melbourne Ave

Fisher St

Crocker Ave

AceLane

Grange Ave

Suss

exM

ews

Yarmouth Rd

Gre

gory

Ave

Cottingham Rd

Algonquin

Bridge

Rd

Sain

tMat

hias

Pl

Maitland St

Douglas Dr

Mac

lenn

anAv

e

Palm

erst

onAv

e

Walnut Ave

Ga rnet Ave

Britain St

Pend

rith

Lane

The Esplanade

Staf

ford

St

Stan

ley

Terr

Adelaide St W

Phoebe St

Grenville St

Winchester St

Hayden St

Argyle St

Rosedale Valley Rd

Mansfield Ave

Sudbury St

Hur

onS

t

Carlton St

Cla

rem

ontS

t

CobourgAve

PrincesBlvd

Irene Ave

Sain

tPa t

r ick

Sq

Bella

irSt

Lake Shore Blvd W

Lennox St

Adelaide St EAdelaide St W

Vana

uley

St

Harbord St

SohoPl

ElizabethS

tUlster St

Sain

tPat

rick

Mar

ket

Coatsworth St

Bruce St

Barton Ave

AylmerAve

Gilead

Pl

Yorkville Ave

John

St

Market St

Gould St

Aitken

Pl

Belmont St

Dundas Sq

Wellington St W

McD

ougal lLane

GlenE

dythD

r

East Liberty St

Portl

and

St

MacPherson Ave

PrincessS

t

Gzo

wsk

i St

Bellwoods Pl

Clin

ton

St

Saint Mary St

Gra

ndM

agaz

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St

MarinerTerr

Afton Ave

Rye

rson

Ave

Elm

Gro

veAv

e

Spruce St

Roy

'sS

q

Sher

bour

neSt

N

Dupont St

SackvilleS

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Longboat Ave

Ray Lane

ChestnutParkRd

Ways

Lane

Soho

St

Sain

tPat

rick

St

Mar

kham

St

Low

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adin

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Rush Lane

Gardiner Expy

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Howard St

Bayv

iew

Ave

Lower S

herbourneSt

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coe

St

Otta

wa

St

GrangeCrt

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Beaver Ave

Geary Ave

Aven

ueR

d

WychwoodPk

Stephanie St

Lower Jarvis

St

Broc

kAv

e

Charles St W

Niagara

St

Marlborough Ave

Kendal Ave

Chr

istie

St

WaterlooTerr

Robinson St

Foxley St

Ojibway Ave

Wellesley St W

Dov

erco

urtR

d

Armoury St

Gerrard St W

Jarv

isSt

Bridgman Ave

Austin

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SaintGeorge

St

Renfrew Pl

Richmond St W

Wellesley St E

Elm St

Mou

ntPl

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Bernard Ave

WellesleyCottages

Edward St

Sack

ville

St

Sydenham St

Channel

Ave

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Dundas St W

Bathurst St

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Shuter St

Adelaide St E

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Alexander St

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3509

5

Décret de représentation électorale de 2003. Élections Canada.Representation Order of 2003. Elections Canada.

The sources used in the preparation of this map are from Natural Resources Canada (GeoAccess,Canada Centre for Remote Sensing) and Statistics Canada (Geography Division).

Canada Centre for Remote Sensing) and Statistics Canada (Geography Division).

Municipal Boundaries: September 2004Road Network: May 2005

Les sources utilisées pour la préparation de cette carte proviennent de Ressources Naturelles Canada(GéoAccès, Centre canadien de télédétection) et de Statistique Canada (Division de la Géographie).Sections de vote : Juin 2005

Limites municipales : Septembre 2004Réseau routier : Mai 2005

3509

5

Scale / Échelle

0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.750.125 km

Ontario

Electoral District Boundaries Limites de la circonscription électorale

Polling Division Boundaries Limites des sections de vote

Municipal Limits Limites municipales

Municipality / Locality Insets Cartons de municipalité / localité1

Toronto, C

0

Total Polling Day RegistrationTotal des inscriptions le jour du scrutin

65 +

T o r o n t o C e n t r eT o r C e n t r e

S t . P a u l ’sP

ar

H i

g h

P a

r k

D a v e r t

To

ro

nt

Da

nf o

rt h

159


Review of Supporting Documentation

The data added during the transformation of the Official List of Electors into the Final List of Electors comes from the Registration Certificates supplied by the Deputy Returning Officer of each polling station to the Returning Office of the Electoral District on election night. As a result, any record in the Final List of Electors that is considered to be a Polling Day Registrant should have a corresponding Registration Certificate.

5.1.2 Navigant Consulting Polling Day Registrant Population – Identification and Verification

Upon commencing our engagement, Navigant Consulting reviewed the database of 10,040 Polling Day Registrants that Elections Canada had assembled from the Final List of Electors. We also reviewed all of the Registration Certificates, correction certificates, poll books and Official List of Electors that were retrieved by Elections Canada from the poll bags. We note that these documents were not available for all polling divisions, as noted in section 3.2 regarding limitation of scope.

Through our review of the database and the supporting documentation provided by Elections Canada, we have determined that at least 10,738 electors were required to register on polling day in the riding of Trinity–Spadina, as shown in the chart opposite page 17. The map on the opposite page shows the distribution of the 10,738 electors within Trinity–Spadina. Appendix A2 contains a detailed listing of Polling Day Registrants by Polling Division. The 10,738 electors consisted of 9,840 Polling Day Registrants identified from the Final List of Electors and 898 individuals identified from other sources, as described in the following paragraphs.


Additional Polling Day Registrants not Recorded in Final List of Electors Extract

As described in section 4.1 of this report, two separate sources of documentation are created when an elector is registered on polling day, namely the Registration Certificate and the poll book entry. It is important to realize however, that the Registration Certificate carries detailed information intended for data capture into the Final List of Electors, while the poll book contains only the elector’s first and last name and basic address information; middle names and dates of birth are not recorded in the poll book. Navigant Consulting reviewed both sets of information independently to determine whether all Registration Certificates were noted in the poll books, and that there were no poll book entries for which a corresponding Registration Certificate could not be found. Any names for which the certificate could not be found were included in our population as potential new Polling Day Registrants.

We found 1,929 additional records in the poll books that were not included as Polling Day Registrants in the Final List of Electors extract. In addition, we found twenty‐two (22) Registration Certificates that were not recorded in the poll books or included as Polling Day Registrants in the Final List of Electors.

A detailed review of these additional potential Polling Day Registrants was then performed to determine which of these records were “Process Polling Day Registrants”, as defined in section 4.3, and which records should be added to the Polling Day Registrant universe, as actual Polling Day Registrants.

We determined that 1,053 of these records were “Process Polling Day Registrants”, as defined in section 4.3. These records were excluded from the Polling Day Registrant population as they represent unnecessary registrations for electors whose names already appeared on the Official Lists of


Electors. They therefore do not need to be examined through the review process described in Section 6.

The remaining 898 records were then added to the Navigant Consulting Polling Day Registrant population to be included in the verification of the matching of the names and addresses provided by the Polling Day Registrants.

Records Included in Final List of Electors Extract

During the review of the 10,040 records included in the Final List of Electors Extract and our attempts to verify these records against the available supporting documentation, Navigant Consulting, together with Elections Canada, was able to identify a number of records that did not represent true registrations, and as such were removed from the Polling Day Registrant population. These 200 records consist of duplicate records, corrections and “process Polling Day Registrants” that Navigant Consulting has identified as follows:

• twenty‐eight (28) records were identified as duplicates of other records within the Final List of Electors Extract;

• sixty‐seven (67) records were identified as corrections in that, for each record, the Polling Day Registrant name and address is included in the Official List of Electors of the associated Polling Division, but for which there was no evidence that the Polling Day Registrant registered on polling day (i.e. there was not a Registration Certificate or entry in a poll book); and

• 105 records were identified as process Polling Day Registrants, as defined in section 4.3.

The net Polling Day Registrants identified from the Final List of Electors, after adjustment for the items noted above, was 9,840.

ADDRESS MATCHING SOURCES

Polling Day Registrant Address Verification Sources

Canada Revenue Agency

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2,000

0

1,000

11,000

Ontario Driver Licence

Municipal Property Assessment Corporation

Cornerstone Digital Telephone Directories

SOURCE COVERAGE

All

All

All

All

Independent Source –Information Management Company Residual

Letters Residual

Telephone Calls Residual

Visits Residual

Un-Matched Addresses



9,840



Other Elections Canada Administrative Sources Residual

The following sequence applies primarily to Polling Day Registrants identified from the Final List of Electors. The

same matching sources were used, to the extent possible, on the Polling Day Registrants not captured in the Final List

of Electors.


6.0 VERIFICATION OF POLLING DAY REGISTRANT ADDRESSES

The core task of this engagement was to identify and match, to the extent possible, the names and addresses of the Polling Day Registrants in Trinity–Spadina to independent third party evidence showing that a person having the same name as a polling day registrant resided at the address provided by said Polling Day Registrant on or around the date of January 23, 2006, polling day for the 39th General Election.

6.1 Overview of Process Undertaken

Our approach to accomplish this core task was to either:

i) determine whether the names and associated addresses of the Polling Day Registrants were supported by an independent third‐party data source, or

ii) directly contact the Polling Day Registrants themselves and have them verbally verify the address in question.

This is depicted in the chart shown on the opposite page. Initially, all identified Polling Day Registrants were compared by Elections Canada to four independent third party data sources. For Polling Day Registrant names and addresses not matched to a third party source, an iterative process was undertaken for remaining “unmatched” Polling Day Registrants from the previous matching process. Detailed discussion of the process and work undertaken is contained in Appendix A3 to this report.

6.1.1 Independent Address Sources

Elections Canada Administrative Sources

Elections Canada has access to several different independent third party data sources that are used by it on a regular basis to update the National Register of Electors between elections. Four of these independent sources were used in an attempt to match the Polling Day Registrant names and addresses. They included the following:


• Canada Revenue Agency

• Ontario Driver Licence

• Municipal Property Assessment Corporation

• Cornerstone Digital Telephone Directories

Information from Canada Post’s National Change of Address database, and from Citizenship and Immigration Canada, were also used to a lesser extent.

Each of these sources is defined in more detail in Appendix A3.

Prior to the involvement of Navigant Consulting, Elections Canada compared the names and addresses contained on the Final List of Electors extract of 10,040 Polling Day Registrants to these four data sources. We have reviewed, tested and verified this process.

Navigant Consulting Independent Source

In addition to the Elections Canada administrative sources, we acquired access to a database maintained by a large information management company to assist with the matching of the Polling Day Registrant names and addresses identified. This database contains current information for a large segment of the Canadian population. Only the name, date of birth and address information were accessed. This matching was performed only on those Polling Day Registrants not already matched through the Elections Canada administrative sources noted above. This database and the method with which it was used is discussed in more detail in Appendix A3.

6.1.2 Direct Contact With Polling Day Registrants

Following the use of third party data sources described above, we undertook to make direct contact with all remaining


unmatched Polling Day Registrants. Direct contact was attempted through the following means:

• letter and/or telephone calls; and

• visits at the address provided by the Polling Day Registrant.

A brief description of each type of contact is discussed below and in more detail in Appendix A3.

Contact Through Letter and/or Telephone

For all Polling Day Registrants that were not matched through independent sources, a personalized letter from the Chief Electoral Officer was sent to the address provided by the Polling Day Registrant. Electors were advised of the Trinity–Spadina study, advised that they would receive a telephone call shortly to conduct a short interview, and were offered a 1‐800 number if they wished to initiate the interview process. In addition, telephone contact was attempted up to ten times, at different hours and on different days, for all of the Polling Day Registrants for which:

• a telephone number had been provided on their Registration Certificate; and/or

• we were able to identify a telephone number that corresponded to the address provided on their Registration Certificate.

It is important to note that the Polling Day Registrants identified from the review of the poll books and Registration Certificates, as discussed in section 5.1.2, were not included in this initial procedure due to the timing of their discovery. However, a further attempt to make direct contact with those Polling Day Registrants that were otherwise not contacted or

Polling Day Registrant Address Matching



9,840

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2,000

0

1,000

11,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2,000

0

1,000

11,000

Third-Party Data Sources

8,655

MATCHED ADDRESSES – 10,136

Visits 628

Letters 86

Electoral Processes 15

Shelter - 43

Telephone 752

Un-Matched - 559




verified was undertaken, as discussed in sections 4.4 and 6.5 of Appendix A3.

Contact Through Visits

For the Polling Day Registrants that we were unable to contact through the initial letter and/or telephone contact process, a visit was made to the address they had provided. A private investigation firm was contracted to visit each Polling Day Registrant up to two times, at different hours and on different days. Investigators also spoke with landlords and building superintendents in order to gather required information. This process was undertaken for all remaining Polling Day Registrants, including those identified from the review of the poll books and Registration Certificates with the exception of those Polling Day Registrants that provided an address that was known to be a student residence of the University of Toronto.

6.2 Summary of Polling Day Registrant Address Verification

Based on the above processes and procedures, 10,136 Polling Day Registrant names and addresses, identified from either the Registration Certificates or poll books, were matched to independent address sources or verified through direct contact with the Polling Day Registrants. No such verification was able to be done for 602 Polling Day Registrants.

The table shown on the opposite page summarizes the results of the matching process for the two Polling Day Registrant populations examined.

6.2.1 Verified Polling Day Registrant Addresses

Of the 10,738 Polling Day Registrants identified for the Electoral District of Trinity–Spadina for the 39th General Election, we have verified that 10,136 were consistent with independent evidence showing that someone having the Registrant’s name, resided at the registration address at or around the time of polling day.


Verification Through Independent Data Sources

Of the 10,136 that were verified, 8,655 were verified through the review of independent data sources. Particularly, 5,954 were verified through one or more of the Elections Canada administrative sources used to update the National Register of Electors. The remaining 2,701 were verified through the Navigant Consulting independent data source. Many Polling Day Registrants were verified through multiple sources.

While information for some of the Polling Day Registrants verified through these administrative sources was available to Elections Canada prior to the 39th General Election, most were verified from data sources that were received following the January 2006 election.

Verification Through Direct Contact With Polling Day Registrants

Of the 2,083 Polling Day Registrants not verified through independent data sources, we were unable to attempt direct contact for seven (7) based on the lack of information available. Of the 2,076 that we attempted to contact, we were able to verify 1,466 at the address listed by the Polling Day Registrant. These consist of:

• 752 verified through telephone contact;

• 86 verified through returned mail; and

• 628 verified through visits to the Polling Day Registrant address.

It should be noted that some of the Polling Day Registrants where we attempted contact were subsequently verified through additional passes through one or more of the independent data sources.

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Montrose

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Tranby Ave

Boswell Ave

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Pears Ave

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Oxley St

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BellwoodsPk

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Hillcrest Dr

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ChesleyAve

Pearl St

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ntha

mPl

Hou

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Hallam St

London St

Logie Pl

Cluny Ave

Lobb Ave

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McClear Pl

Humbert St

Richmond St E

Scott Lane

Shanly St

Ontario

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RussellSt

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AnnexLane

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Colborne St

Irwin Ave

JordanSt

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Chippewa

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VirginPl

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Met

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Car

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SaintDavidWalk

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Lane

Lead

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Glenholme Pl

Drumsnab Rd

Bast

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Nunavut Rd

Hillsboro Ave

Lake Shore Blvd W

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Bola

ndLa

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University

Ave

Giv

ins

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Dun

can

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Sum

ach

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Dale Ave

Summerhill Ave

Alba

nyA

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Parr St

CourtneyPl

Willcocks St

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Coatsworth St

Bruce St

Barton Ave

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Yorkville Ave

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St

Market St

Gould St

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Pl

Belmont St

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McD

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Verification Through Electoral Processes

Also included as being verified are fifteen (15) Polling Day Registrants that registered at a mobile poll. Elections Canada uses mobile polls to take the polling station to buildings where it is recognized that the residents can not easily make their way to a poll away from their building. These locations typically include long‐term care facilities and other similar facilities. Elections Canada effectively verified the residence of these Polling Day Registrants at the time and location of their registration.

Verification of Polling Day Registrants Not Possible

Due to privacy concerns, we were unable to attempt visits at addresses known to be shelters for the homeless or abused. There were 43 Polling Day Registrants identified under this category.

6.2.2 Unmatched Polling Day Registrant Addresses

For 602 of the 10,738 Polling Day Registrants identified, we were unable to match a person having the same name at the recorded Polling Day Registrant address.

The age demographic in the following table and spatial distributions (see map on opposite page) are provided for these remaining unmatched records.

Age Range Unverified %18 - 24 283 47.025 - 34 123 20.435 - 44 35 5.845 - 54 21 3.555 - 64 16 2.765+ 6 1.0Age not known 118 19.6

Total 602 100.0

Ages of Unverified PDRs for Trinity-Spadina

An examination of the 602 unmatched Polling Day Registrants, with regard to their REVISE registration status, indicates that twenty nine (29) had recently moved within Trinity–Spadina (M); 202 recently transferred into Trinity–Spadina (T) and 227 were new electors (A). For 144 unverified Electors we had no status information as their records came from poll book entries. Because less detail was available from the poll book about both the Polling Day Registrants and their addresses, this group of Polling Day Registrants was correspondingly more difficult to verify.

In addition, included in the 602 unmatched Polling Day Registrants are 127 that provided an address that appears to be a student residence of the University of Toronto. Efforts to obtain access to the University’s student records, in order to verify the name and address provided by these Polling Day Registrants, were unsuccessful because of legal and policy restrictions on the disclosure of personal information.



7.0 EXAMINATION AND IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL MULTIPLE VOTING BY POLLING DAY REGISTRANTS

In addition to verifying the address submitted by the Polling Day Registrants, as discussed in section 6, we were also requested to assess the potential that the Polling Day Registrants in Trinity–Spadina voted more than once, either within the riding of Trinity–Spadina, or in other Electoral Districts.

We note that under our mandate, we were to identify those instances where the available information indicated that a Polling Day Registrant may have voted more than once. We understand that any such instances identified would be provided to the Chief Electoral Officer who may then decide to refer them to the Commissioner of Canada Elections, who would determine what further action, if any, would be undertaken by Elections Canada.

For the purpose of this review, three scenarios were identified, and discussed with Elections Canada, which could result in a Polling Day Registrant voting more than once.

i) The Polling Day Registrant was already registered in a different Polling Division than the one they registered at on polling day, either within Trinity–Spadina or in another Electoral District, therefore providing an opportunity to vote more than once.

ii) The Polling Day Registrant could vote either at an advance poll or by special ballot elsewhere in the country, and also as a Polling Day Registrant in Trinity–Spadina.

iii) The Polling Day Registrant registered on polling day at multiple Polling Divisions within Trinity–Spadina.

Our findings for each of the above scenarios are discussed in sections 7.1 to 7.3 with more details provided in Appendix A4.

Elector Codes for Polling Day Registrants Based on Final List of Electors

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2,000

0

1,000

11,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2,000

0

1,000

11,000

Transfers4,913

ELECTOR CODES

Adds3,839

Moves1,088



9,840




7.1 Potential Multiple Voting – Transfers and Moves

Under scenario (i), if the Polling Day Registrant was previously recorded in the National Register of Electors as being resident at a different address than the one provided on polling day, they could potentially vote at the polling station for their previous address simply by going to that polling station and stating their name and address.

Of the 10,738 Polling Day Registrants, 6,001 were identified by Elections Canada as being the same person as another name already on the List of Electors, but at another address. These 6,001 Polling Day Registrants, as shown on the opposite page, were separated into two groups:

i) 4,913 people whose previous address was outside of the Electoral District of Trinity–Spadina (“Transfers”), and

ii) 1,088 people whose previous address was within Trinity–Spadina (“Moves”).

7.1.1 Potential Multiple Voting – Transfers

As noted in Appendix A4, a sample of the 4,913 Transfers was tested. From this sample, we identified one (1) elector that may have voted in the Toronto Electoral District of Eglinton–Lawrence in addition to being a Polling Day Registrant in Trinity–Spadina.

This one elector has been referred to Elections Canada and we understand that the information will be reviewed by the Commissioner of Canada Elections to determine whether multiple voting occurred.

Based on the final sample size of 344 Polling Day Registrants, Navigant Consulting estimates the proportion of potential double voters in the total population of 4,913 Polling Day Registrant Transfers to be in the range of between 0.02% and 1.55%, at a 95% confidence level. We caution that this result is

Identifying Potential Double Voting

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2,000

0

1,000

11,000

ELECTOR CODES POTENTIAL DOUBLE VOTING

Transfers4,934

987No Indication of Potential Double

Voting (979). An indication but with an explanation (8)

Indication of Potential Double Voting4

Moves [1]

Transfers [2]

Indication of Potential Double Voting1

343No Indication of Potential Double

Voting

[2] Based on sample size of 344 Polling Day Registrants identified as Transfers, we estimate that the proportion of potential double voters in the total population of PDR Transfers was calculated to be between 0.02% and 1.55% at a 95% confidence level.


Transfers4,913

Adds3,839

Moves1,088

[1] Does not include 97 potential Moves where a proper link to an existing record on the National Register of Electors could not be established.


based on data for the electoral district of Trinity–Spadina, and should not be used to extrapolate over the population of Canada, given that Trinity–Spadina appears to be a somewhat unique electoral district.

7.1.2 Potential Multiple Voting - Moves

As noted in Appendix A4, we examined 991 Polling Day Registrants classified as Moves to determine the extent of potential multiple voting. From this review, we identified four (4) electors that may have voted at a polling station within Trinity–Spadina that was different from the polling station at which they were Polling Day Registrants.

These four electors have been referred to Elections Canada and we understand that the information will be reviewed by the Commissioner of Canada Elections to determine whether multiple voting occurred.

7.2 Potential Multiple Voting – Advance Polls and Special Ballots

Under scenario (ii), multiple voting could potentially occur if the Polling Day Registrants also voted at an advance poll or by using a special ballot. While these instances would have been identified in the potential multiple voting testing described in section 7.1, testing the potential for multiple voting at an advance poll or by special ballot by all Polling Day Registrants was facilitated by the computerized records of Elections Canada. The testing process is discussed in further detail in section 1.4 of appendix A4.

In addition to the instances of potential multiple voting identified in section 7.1, this test identified five (5) Polling Day Registrants as potentially having voted at an advance poll and an additional three (3) Polling Day Registrants as having received a special ballot. Further investigations by Elections Canada has revealed that the three special ballots were not recorded as being returned by the elector and, based on the


address information used for mailing, may not have been received by the electors.

Similar to those identified in section 7.1, we understand that these eight (8) electors will be reviewed by the Commissioner of Canada Elections to determine whether multiple voting occurred.

7.3 Potential Multiple Voting – Multiple Registrations on Polling Day

All of the 10,738 Polling Day Registrants were examined to determine whether they could have potentially registered to vote on polling day, using the same name and address, at more than one polling station. We understand that while electors should not be permitted to vote at a polling station other than the one associated with their address, this does occasionally occur.

Based on the documentation reviewed, we did not identify any instances that would indicate that an individual had registered, using the same name and address, to vote at more than one Polling Division within the riding of Trinity–Spadina.


8.0 OTHER AREAS OF EXAMINATION

8.1 Validity of Addresses Provided

As part of validating the Polling Day Registrants in Trinity–Spadina, Elections Canada sought to ensure that the addresses indicated on the Registration Certificates were valid. This included the verification that each Polling Day Registrant address:

• consisted of a valid street name and street number;

• was residential in nature; and

• was located within the Trinity–Spadina Electoral District.

The 898 Polling Day Registrants not recorded in the Final List of Electors did not form part of the examination that follows, due to the fact that the addresses retrieved from these Polling Day Registrants were missing details, such as apartment numbers and postal codes.

8.1.1 Verify That Polling Day Registrant Addresses Consist of Valid Street Names and Numbers

Of the original 10,040 Polling Day Registrants, 9,710 had addresses that existed within Elections Canada’s Corporate Address Register. While this does not validate the address against an authoritative source, it does indicate that the address had previously been used by another elector. This was achieved after standardizing the address information as it existed on the Registration Certificates, for instance by allowing for slight differences in free‐form textual descriptions of units (e.g., 2 FLR, 2NDFLOOR, 2, Upper, etc.). Of the 330 remaining Polling Day Registrants, some 273 represented new units in a building that already appeared in the Address Register. It is expected that many of these represent apartments in buildings that are being inhabited by electors for the first time.


Using the Corporate Address Register to determine the validity of the 10,040 addresses, it was determined that there were fifty‐seven (57) Polling Day Registrants at addresses that either represented new buildings or were believed to be invalid due to typographical errors. However, forty‐two (42) of these fifty‐seven (57) Polling Day Registrant addresses were subsequently matched to independent third party data providers such as the Canada Revenue Agency and/or the Ontario Ministry of Transportation (driver’s licence) and one was removed because of duplication.

Given that forty‐two (42) of the fifty‐seven (57) Polling Day Registrant addresses that did not match a building address found in the Corporate Address Register were matched to an independent third party data source, we undertook to determine whether the fifteen (15) remaining Polling Day Registrants were at residential addresses. A review of the data determined that these fifteen (15) Polling Day Registrants were listed at fourteen (14) different addresses.

Navigant Consulting conducted walk‐by visits of the fourteen (14) addresses to verify that these street numbers and/or names existed and thus were valid. Of these addresses:

• ten (10) addresses were located, of which:

• eight (8) were determined to be residential; and

• two (2) appeared to be non‐residential (discussed further in section 8.1.2).

• three (3) addresses did not exist; and

• one (1) address was incomplete and therefore could not be located.


8.1.2 Verify That Polling Day Registrant Addresses are Classified as Residential

The 9,710 Polling Day Registrants, for which an address was found in the Corporate Address Register (Section 8.1.1), were linked to a file extracted from the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation database in April 2006 as part of the address verification procedure discussed in section 6 of this report. This examination was performed to ensure that the property classification of the addresses documented on the Registration Certificates were residential in nature.

The Polling Day Registrant address was matched to the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation database for 7,245 of these 9,710 records. Of these matches forty‐four (44) addresses were identified as non‐residential. Most of these consisted of commercial and industrial use classification. This was not entirely unexpected in an Electoral District such as Trinity–Spadina where there is significant new construction and conversion of industrial/commercial use property to residential.

Navigant Consulting conducted walk‐by visits of these forty‐four (44) addresses to assess whether there was a residential component to the address in question. Of the forty‐four (44) addresses visited:

• Forty‐two (42) did have a residential component at the address;

• Two (2) did not appear to have a residential component.

Adding the two (2) addresses identified in section 8.1.1, there are four (4) addresses in total that do not appear to have a residential component. However, these included restaurants and small businesses that may have had accommodations for the owner, accessible only through the commercial entrance and not visible from the street.


8.1.3 Verify That Polling Day Registrant Addresses are Located in the Trinity–Spadina Electoral District

Elections Canada has also determined that three (3) Polling Day Registrants who registered in Trinity–Spadina provided addresses that were located outside the Electoral District, specifically the adjacent Electoral District of Davenport. These three Polling Day Registrants were on the Official List of Electors for their correct polls in Davenport, and when they registered in Trinity–Spadina, they provided the Davenport addresses against which they were already registered. In all three cases, the addresses provided were within metres of the boundary between the two electoral districts. A Navigant Consulting review of these addresses has verified their location outside of Trinity–Spadina.

In addition, we also reviewed the Official List of Electors for each of these three persons to determine if they had potentially voted in the Electoral District of Davenport in addition to being a Polling Day Registrant in Trinity–Spadina. In all three cases, there was no indication that the person voted in the Polling Division that they were registered in within the Electoral District of Davenport.

8.2 Vouching and Provision of Identification

In addition to reviewing the address of each Polling Day Registrant, Elections Canada also requested that Navigant Consulting examine the Registration Certificates to determine the proportion of Polling Day Registrants that were registered by providing identification compared to those that were registered by being vouched for by another elector.

Registration Certificates were located and copied by Elections Canada for 9,489 of the 10,738 Polling Day Registrants identified. Registration Certificates contain a designated “check box” area on the front of the form to record whether the registrant provided proof of identity by showing identification or by being vouched for by another elector. The information

collected from the Registration Certificates and poll books in this regard is summarized in the following table:

Registration Certificates Identifying:

Identification Provided 8,603 Vouched 180 Both boxes checked 78 Neither box checked 628

Total Registration Certificates 9,489

Summary of Proof of Identity for Polling Day Registrants

In addition to the information provided from the Registration Certificates, as summarized in the above table, we also identified twenty‐three (23) additional Polling Day Registrants as having registered by being vouched for, but for whom Registration Certificates were not provided. Therefore, the total number of Polling Day Registrants that were identified as being vouched for was 281, assuming that the seventy‐eight (78) Registration Certificates containing a check mark in both boxes were all vouched for. The elector names from the 628 Registration Certificates where neither box was checked were searched for in the poll books; no entries were found to indicate vouching had occurred.

8.2.1 Serial Vouching

Elections Canada also requested that we review the Polling Day Registrants that were registered by vouching to determine if there were any instances of serial vouching.

Serial vouching occurs when an elector that is registered in the Polling Division vouches for a Polling Day Registrant and that Polling Day Registrant then vouches for another Polling Day Registrant. As noted in Appendix A6, Section 161 of the Canada Elections Act provides that once an elector has been registered,


the list of electors is considered to be modified such that the newly registered elector is now eligible to vouch for another elector.

The following table provides further information on the distribution of vouching across all the Polling Divisions of Trinity–Spadina during the 39th General Election, based on the information that was available for us to review.

Number of Vouchees per

Polling Division

Number of Polling

DivisionsTotal

Vouchees0 94 01 65 652 28 563 14 424 9 365 5 256 2 127 2 14

8+ 3 31

222 281

Summary of Polling Day Registrant Vouching

Of the 281 Polling Day Registrants that were vouched for, identified from the available records, ninety‐nine (99) entries in the poll books were found that provided the name of the elector that vouched for the Polling Day Registrant. As a result of the unavailability of this information, we are only able to comment on occurrences of serial vouching as it pertains to these ninety‐nine (99) Polling Day Registrants.

In reviewing the records of these ninety‐nine (99) Polling Day Registrants, we identified two (2) instances of serial vouching. Both instances consisted of a group of three (3) people, all of whom registered as having the same last name.


NAVIGANT CONSULTING

Per: Gary Timm, CA•IFA, CFE Managing Director


Appendix A1 May 1, 2007 Confidential Page 1 of 2



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The

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you

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sed

for f

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rovi

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pro

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ed u

nder

the

Cana

da

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tions

Act

and

the

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The

info

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is re

tain

ed in

Per

sona

l Inf

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atio

n Ba

nks

CEO

PPU

005

and

CEO

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Les

rens

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emen

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rmul

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à de

s fin

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les

et p

rovi

ncia

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Ils

sont

pro

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ver

tu d

e la

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ur la

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ctor

s

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e p

erso

n w

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nam

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rs in

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adia

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, 18

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s of

age

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ove

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t si

nce

the

beg

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ontin

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the

ele

ctor

al d

istr

ict

until

pol

ling

day

.

Veui

llez

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ette

cas

e et

ap

pos

er v

otre

sig

natu

re s

i vou

s N

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ue v

otre

nom

soi

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outé

au

Reg

istr

e na

tiona

l des

éle

cteu

rs.

Je, d

ont

le n

om a

pp

araî

t d

ans

la c

ase

no 1, c

ertif

ie q

ue je

sui

s ci

toye

n ca

nad

ien,

que

j’ai

18

ans

ou p

lus

le jo

ur d

u sc

rutin

et

que

je r

ésid

e ha

bitu

elle

men

t à

l’ad

ress

e in

diq

uée

à la

cas

e no

2.S

i le

scru

tin

en c

our

s es

t un

e él

ecti

on

par

tiel

le, j

e ce

rtifi

e q

ue je

rés

ide

hab

ituel

lem

ent

dan

s la

circ

onsc

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n d

epui

s le

déb

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e la

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tinue

rai d

’y r

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squ’

au jo

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u sc

rutin

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Vouc

hing

Rép

ond

ant

x

(See

sec

tions

161

, 169

, 170

, 47

of th

e Ca

nada

Ele

ctio

ns A

ct)

(Voi

r arti

cles

161

, 169

, 170

, 47

de la

Loi

éle

ctor

ale

du C

anad

a)

1 2 3 4 5 6




DDiissttrriibbuuttiioonn ooff PPoolllliinngg DDaayy RReeggiissttrraannttss WWiitthhiinn TTrriinniittyy––SSppaaddiinnaa

The following table lists the distribution of Polling Day Registrants by Polling Division within Trinity–Spadina. Also, included is the Registered Elector distribution by Polling Division (as supplied by Elections Canada, from the Official Voting Results) as well as the percentage of Polling Day Registrants out of the number of registered electors for each Polling Division. The table is sorted by Polling Division, from the largest number of Polling Day Registrants to the smallest.

A base map of Trinity–Spadina is included after the table for reference to the Polling Division location.

Polling Division Number

Polling Day Registrants Identified

Electors on Final List of Electors

Polling Day Registrants as a Percentage of


[A] [B] [A]/[B]

169 391 1686 23.19%55 272 812 33.50%54 237 676 35.06%

167 233 1875 12.43%







[A] [B] [A]/[B]

119 114 510 22.35%91 110 320 34.38%

122 102 494 20.65%74 96 541 17.74%

426 95 230 41.30%126 90 542 16.61%125 90 394 22.84%41 89 274 32.48%

171 88 984 8.94%142 88 720 12.22%416 88 407 21.62%438 80 424 18.87%95 79 648 12.19%

120 77 399 19.30%29 77 394 19.54%

152 76 516 14.73%127 76 411 18.49%157 75 694 10.81%50 74 629 11.76%

137 74 602 12.29%116 74 517 14.31%159 72 467 15.42%61 71 503 14.12%88 71 448 15.85%

150 70 770 9.09%78 69 448 15.40%94 68 638 10.66%

162 67 532 12.59%121 66 366 18.03%129 65 465 13.98%42 65 443 14.67%

413 65 352 18.47%70 64 435 14.71%80 63 405 15.56%

111 62 533 11.63%56 62 532 11.65%31 61 429 14.22%30 61 340 17.94%







[A] [B] [A]/[B]

85 59 338 17.46%79 58 335 17.31%40 57 485 11.75%90 57 437 13.04%43 57 410 13.90%86 56 409 13.69%

434 55 478 11.51%26 55 323 17.03%64 54 505 10.69%36 54 374 14.44%

158 53 502 10.56%51 53 462 11.47%

107 53 412 12.86%114 52 519 10.02%115 52 475 10.95%65 52 338 15.38%71 52 305 17.05%

423 52 262 19.85%104 51 528 9.66%93 51 515 9.90%

117 51 417 12.23%35 51 412 12.38%

139 51 354 14.41%38 51 264 19.32%

417 50 323 15.48%429 50 312 16.03%441 50 160 31.25%445 49 591 8.29%92 49 533 9.19%14 49 475 10.32%99 49 470 10.43%37 49 379 12.93%17 48 448 10.71%49 48 385 12.47%59 46 558 8.24%

134 46 521 8.83%100 46 502 9.16%123 46 453 10.15%







[A] [B] [A]/[B]

34 45 374 12.03%9 45 372 12.10%66 45 360 12.50%

431 45 321 14.02%27 45 260 17.31%

113 44 487 9.03%155 44 468 9.40%96 44 405 10.86%73 44 395 11.14%

128 44 389 11.31%450 44 352 12.50%89 44 342 12.87%81 43 324 13.27%83 43 298 14.43%

138 43 296 14.53%433 43 284 15.14%15 42 412 10.19%

409 42 299 14.05%67 41 521 7.87%

105 41 521 7.87%5 41 393 10.43%28 41 221 18.55%

444 40 486 8.23%60 40 449 8.91%

101 40 432 9.26%21 40 419 9.55%

110 40 401 9.98%63 40 394 10.15%

432 40 304 13.16%98 39 513 7.60%

147 39 448 8.71%102 39 382 10.21%72 39 368 10.60%

411 39 342 11.40%412 39 257 15.18%168 39 250 15.60%141 38 503 7.55%449 38 450 8.44%







[A] [B] [A]/[B]

106 37 412 8.98%84 37 235 15.74%11 36 425 8.47%

173 36 323 11.15%69 36 279 12.90%77 36 255 14.12%

165 35 540 6.48%166 35 423 8.27%

3 35 376 9.31%44 35 355 9.86%

428 35 322 10.87%4 35 320 10.94%1 35 230 15.22%97 34 459 7.41%

172 34 383 8.88%108 34 266 12.78%130 33 401 8.23%39 32 351 9.12%24 32 313 10.22%82 32 263 12.17%

175 31 509 6.09%103 31 403 7.69%446 31 390 7.95%109 31 361 8.59%406 31 335 9.25%163 31 291 10.65%75 31 260 11.92%

112 30 452 6.64%16 30 408 7.35%52 30 396 7.58%

146 30 302 9.93%140 29 484 5.99%58 29 336 8.63%23 29 284 10.21%

424 29 245 11.84%437 29 123 23.58%404 29 110 26.36%174 28 466 6.01%







[A] [B] [A]/[B]

47 27 324 8.33%62 27 318 8.49%32 27 290 9.31%87 27 283 9.54%25 27 272 9.93%

408 27 238 11.34%160 27 220 12.27%10 26 457 5.69%

435 26 323 8.05%149 25 273 9.16%

8 24 397 6.05%7 24 395 6.08%

135 24 362 6.63%2 24 345 6.96%48 24 344 6.98%19 24 302 7.95%68 24 295 8.14%

421 24 254 9.45%20 24 228 10.53%

133 23 369 6.23%161 22 324 6.79%402 21 439 4.78%448 21 423 4.96%13 21 306 6.86%

440 21 268 7.84%439 21 249 8.43%

6 20 408 4.90%418 20 241 8.30%12 20 236 8.47%76 20 233 8.58%

415 20 194 10.31%151 18 330 5.45%53 17 318 5.35%46 16 327 4.89%

447 15 354 4.24%410 15 285 5.26%403 14 354 3.95%400 14 222 6.31%







[A] [B] [A]/[B]

164 10 199 5.03%143 10 175 5.71%500 10 56 17.86%148 9 194 4.64%504 6 134 4.48%420 5 46 10.87%419 4 83 4.82%436 2 132 1.52%407 1 168 0.60%401 1 31 3.23%422 0 241 0.00%442 0 153 0.00%427 0 122 0.00%501 0 59 0.00%503 0 5 0.00%

Total 10,738 88,183 12.18%

Note:

1. Polls 1 – 399 are ordinary polls; Polls numbered 400 – 499 serve a single large apartment or condominium building each; Polls numbered 500 and greater are mobile polls serving two or more buildings where electors are physically unable to attend an ordinary poll.

2. The column “Total Registered Electors on Final List of Electors” does not include the 898 unprocessed polling day registrants identified through poll book entries.

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DDeettaaiilleedd DDeessccrriippttiioonn ooff tthhee PPoolllliinngg DDaayy RReeggiissttrraanntt AAddddrreessss VVeerriiffiiccaattiioonn PPrroocceessss aanndd PPrroocceedduurreess

1.0 INTRODUCTION Section 6 of our report summarizes the various processes and procedures used to verify the names and addresses reported by the Trinity–Spadina Polling Day Registrants in the 39th General Election. This Appendix describes the processes and procedures in more detail to provide a better understanding of the effort undertaken, both by Navigant Consulting and by Elections Canada, to verify these Polling Day Registrant addresses.

1.1 Overview of Processes and Procedures

As noted previously, the core task of this engagement was to identify and match, to the extent possible, the names and addresses of the 10,738 Polling Day Registrants in Trinity–Spadina to independent evidence showing that a person having the same name as the Polling Day Registrant resided at the address provided by said Polling Day Registrant on or around the date of January 23, 2006, polling day for the 39th General Election.

Section 5 of our report describes how the Polling Day Registrant universe consists of two distinct populations: Poll Book and Registration Certificate Polling Day Registrants (898);


and, those Polling Day Registrants extracted from the Final List of Electors (9,840). The former population, having been identified after much of the initial address verification had been completed, have been dealt with in a slightly different fashion with regard to address verification. Sections 2 through 5 of this Appendix describe the processes and procedures for address verification for the Polling Day Registrants extracted from the Final List of Electors, while section 6 describes these processes and procedures for the Poll Book and Registration Certificate Polling Day Registrants.

1.1.1 Polling Day Registrant Address Verification Approaches

In the course of its day‐to‐day operations, Elections Canada uses a variety of data sources to continually update address information for electors in the National Register of Electors, and in some cases, to identify potential new electors so that Elections Canada can forward information to them regarding the registration process.

Prior to the involvement of Navigant Consulting, Elections Canada compared the Polling Day Registrant names and addresses contained on the Final List of Electors extract of 10,040 Polling Day Registrants to four data sources:

• Canada Revenue Agency (CRA)

• Ontario Driver Licence (ODL)

• Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC)

• Cornerstone Digital Telephone Directories (CDTD)

Navigant Consulting subsequently reviewed, tested and verified this process as discussed in Appendix A5.

With the exclusion of the Cornerstone Digital Telephone Directories, the Polling Day Registrant names and addresses


from the 898 Poll Book and Registration Certificate Polling Day Registrants were also matched to these databases as well, but at a later time.

In addition to the data sources described above, Elections Canada also compared the Polling Day Registrant addresses to those in the National Register of Electors, to obtain an address verification where the Register records have been updated using information from: Citizenship and Immigration; the 2003 Ontario Provincial Voters List; Canada Post’s National Change of Address database and from the 2004 federal general election. This was done on the remaining unverified addresses after much of the initial matching had been completed.

Navigant Consulting also utilized a database from an independent third‐party data source in the information management industry, to match the Polling Day Registrant names and addresses contained on the Final List of Electors extract and the Poll book and Registration Certificate Polling Day Registrants.

Following the use of third‐party data sources, Navigant Consulting also attempted to contact by letter and telephone those Polling Day Registrants for which no address matches were found on any of the above data sources. Contact by letter and telephone was only attempted for Polling Day Registrants identified from the Final List of Electors extract.

The telephone component of the verification process was contracted by Navigant Consulting to Circum Networks, a communications firm that specializes in telephone interviews and surveys.

Finally, we visited the Polling Day Registrant address for all remaining Polling Day Registrants whose address remained unverified by any of the above sources. This was done for both Polling Day Registrant populations.


2.0 ELECTIONS CANADA ADMINISTRATIVE SOURCES

As noted above, Elections Canada uses a variety of data sources to continually update address information for electors in the National Register of Electors. The following paragraphs describe our understanding of the principal data sources which were relied upon to demonstrate that a third‐party organization’s information matched the Polling Day Registrant name at the address indicated on the Final List of Electors.

2.1 Canada Revenue Agency

The Canada Revenue Agency (“CRA”) maintains a database of all Canadian citizens who file tax returns. Elections Canada relies on the CRA database information to identify potential new electors and to update the Elections Canada address information for existing electors.

2.1.1 CRA Data Source

According to documentation obtained from Elections Canada, some 18.6 million, or 84% of tax filers, provide consent to CRA to transfer name, address and date of birth information to Elections Canada.

2.1.2 Elections Canada Process and Procedures

Each month Elections Canada receives information from CRA for tax filers who have provided consent for the transfer of their name, address and date of birth information to Elections Canada for the maintenance of the National Register of Electors.

Elections Canada compared the names and addresses on the CRA updates from December 2005 and July 2006 to the Polling Day Registrant names and addresses contained on the Final List of Electors extract of Polling Day Registrants. Most Canadians file their tax returns between January and May each year. While Elections Canada receives a monthly update from CRA, the use of the December 2005 CRA file likely reflects name and address information from the first quarter of 2005. Similarly,


the July 2006 CRA file likely reflects name and address information from the first quarter of 2006.

Some preprocessing by Elections Canada was performed on the addresses provided by CRA so that the formatting adhered to the Treasury Board standards for key fielding of addresses. This included parsing the CRA addresses into standard and consistent formats and in some cases correcting known address problems.

A given Polling Day Registrant address record was considered to match with the CRA information if the:

• First and last names were identical;

• Date of birth was exact;

• Unit number was identical;

• Building number was identical; and,

• Street name, type and direction was identical.

In cases where the CRA record contained a unit number and the Polling Day Registrant record did not (in cases of a potential match where all else was identical), a match was considered. For the opposite, that is, a Polling Day Registrant record with unit number and CRA record without it, a match was not considered in order to minimize false matches.

Also, a subset of non‐exact matches were considered on a case‐by‐case basis and accepted if it was evident that it was a legitimate match. Elections Canada staff erred on the side of caution and were conservative in accepting non‐exact matches.


2.2 Ontario Driver Licence

The Ontario Ministry of Transportation maintains a database of all Ontario residents who hold a driver’s licence. Elections Canada relies on the Ontario Driver Licence (“ODL”) database to update their address information for existing electors as well as identifying potential new electors, to whom a voter registration form is sent.

2.2.1 ODL Data Source

Each quarter, Elections Canada receives a file containing name, address and date of birth information from Ontario’s Ministry of Transportation for individuals who hold a valid driver’s licence in the province. Approximately 5.3 million records are included in each quarterly update which represents a complete extract of the driver’s licence database regardless of whether or not the records have changed during the previous three months.

While drivers are required by law to update their driver’s and vehicle licences with the Ministry of Transportation within six days of a move, we understand that many drivers wait to do so. Further, we understand that many driver’s licence updates appear to occur when drivers renew their vehicle licence plates, on or before their birth dates. In Ontario, vehicle renewals are on an annual or bi‐annual basis, while driver’s licence renewals are on a five‐year cycle, when the photo identification portion of the licence needs to be updated.


Elections Canada compared the names and addresses on the quarterly ODL database updates from October 2005 and January, April and July 2006 to the Polling Day Registrant names and addresses contained on the Final List of Electors extract of Polling Day Registrants.


Some preprocessing by Elections Canada was performed on the addresses provided by ODL so that they conformed to the Treasury Board standards for address key fielding. This included parsing the ODL addresses into standard and consistent formats and in some cases correcting known address problems.

A given Polling Day Registrant address record was considered to match with the ODL information if the:

• First and last names were identical;

• Date of birth was exact;

• Unit number was identical;

• Building number was identical; and,

• Street name, type and direction was identical.

In cases where the ODL record contained a unit number and the Polling Day Registrant record did not (in cases of a potential match where all else was identical), a match was considered. For the opposite, that is, a Polling Day Registrant record with unit number and ODL record without it, a match was not considered in order to minimize false matches.

Also, a subset of non‐exact matches were considered on a case‐by‐case basis and accepted if it was evident that it was a legitimate match. Elections Canada staff erred on the side of caution and were conservative in accepting non‐exact matches.


2.3 Municipal Property Assessment Corporation

The Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) maintains a database of property ownership and tenancy information. Elections Canada has used information on the MPAC data source to correct addresses in the Corporate Address Register, and to update the information for a small number of existing electors.

2.3.1 MPAC Data Source

The MPAC Voter Notification File contains the records of individuals who have the right to vote in municipal elections in Ontario. The list is derived from MPAC’s property assessment database, which contains property ownership and tenancy information received through change of ownership and tenancy surveys. Tenancy surveys are completed for a variety of purposes including determining which school boards taxpayers wish to support through their municipal taxes.


Elections Canada compared the names and addresses on the MPAC database updates from April and October 2006 to the Polling Day Registrant names and addresses contained on the Final List of Electors extract of Polling Day Registrants.

Some standard Register preprocessing by Elections Canada was required to convert the MPAC addresses into standard and consistent formats. For example, accents and special characters were removed.

Polling Day Registrant name and address records were matched using three cascading types of matches. For each type, the two addresses had to be identical for a match to be considered:

• Type 1 Matches required that there be an exact match of the last name and first name for Polling Day Registrant and


MPAC records of the same address. The Date of Birth was not used for Type 1 matches due to many partial or missing dates of birth in the MPAC Voter Notification File.

• Type 2 Matches included records that were not considered type 1 Matches because there were small differences in name spelling on the two files (e.g., Patrick vs. Patrik, MacDonald vs. McDonald). New matches were found by cross‐matching First and Middle Name and First and Last Name values on both files to determine if they had been inverted. Last Name matching allowed splitting of hyphenated names and matching on individual components. In addition, to link women who might use a married family name on one source and their birth family name on the other, a match was also allowed on First Name and Date of Birth for electors at the same address.

• Type 3 Matches included records that failed the first two matches, but revealed greater spelling differences for names that clearly applied to the same individual. As a result, the Soundex comparison (spelling variants that are phonetically the same) of first and last names was used, as well as matches where the Last Name field and full Date of Birth were equal.

2.4 Cornerstone Digital Telephone Directories

The Cornerstone Digital Telephone Directories (“CDTD”) are digital versions of the municipal telephone books. Elections Canada is evaluating these digital telephone files for their potential to update their address information for existing electors on the National Register of Electors.

2.4.1 CDTD Data Source

The CDTD files contain the same information found in a regular “White Pages” telephone directory or on the Canada 411 web site. Frequently addresses are incomplete or


abbreviated, names reflect only an initial and not the full given name, and so on.

The CDTD files do not contain information on cellular phone subscribers, as the number is not associated with a fixed address, nor do they contain private telephone listings.


Elections Canada compared the names and addresses on the February 2006 CDTD files to the Polling Day Registrant names and addresses contained on the Final List of Electors extract of Polling Day Registrants.

As with all administrative data sources, some preprocessing of the address information in the CDTD file was performed by Elections Canada including the parsing of the addresses into standard and consistent formats.

Three separate matching criteria were performed:

• Cases where the telephone number for the Polling Day Registrant, if it exists on the registration certificate, and the CDTD returned the same address and surname.

• Cases where the Polling Day Registrant address and the CDTD returned the same surname and first initial of given name.

• Cases where the Polling Day Registrant address and the CDTD returned the same surname only in a single unit dwelling.


2.5 Summary of Address Verifications

The following results were obtained using the Elections Canada administrative data sources for address verification. Using CRA, 2,199 Polling Day Registrant addresses were verified, using ODL 2,210 were verified, using MPAC 2,499 verified and in using the CDTD data 2,003 were verified. The other Elections Canada databases, as described in Section 1.1.1, provided nine (9) address matches. Because of multiple verifications between data sources there is much overlap in the above numbers.

This resulted in 5,555 Polling Day Registrant address verifications for the Final List of Electors extract of the 9,840 Polling Day Registrants.


3.0 NAVIGANT CONSULTING INDEPENDENT DATA SOURCE

3.1 Information Management Company

As noted in section 6 of the report, Navigant Consulting has access to a database managed by a global leader in the information management industry. They support more than 50,000 customers on six continents and more than 500 million consumers worldwide.

While this database contains current information for a large segment of the Canadian population, only the name, date of birth and address information were accessed.

3.2 Process and Procedures Undertaken

Navigant Consulting compared the names and addresses in the database to the 5,221 Polling Day Registrant names and addresses that remained unverified following the use of the four Elections Canada administrative sources described above.

An exact match of the name and address was required for verification.

In total, the database verified that 2,491 names and addresses matched Polling Day Registrant names and addresses contained on the Final List of Electors extract of the 9,840 Polling Day Registrants which were not verified by the data sources described in section 2 of this Appendix.


4.0 DIRECT CONTACT WITH POLLING DAY REGISTRANTS

Direct contact with the Polling Day Registrants was attempted using a number of different methods, namely by mail, telephone and finally by a visit to the address provided by the Polling Day Registrant.

The initial attempt was made to contact Polling Day Registrants through mailings and telephone contact. This was for those names and addresses which were not already matched through the above described independent data sources. A visit to the given address was then attempted for all remaining unverified Polling Day Registrants.

4.1 Contact By Mail Letters from the Chief Electoral Officer, using the CEO’s official letterhead and envelope, were sent to 2,139 Polling Day Registrant addresses, that remained unverified at the time. Electors were advised of the Trinity–Spadina study, advised that they would receive a telephone call shortly to conduct a short interview, and were offered a 1‐800 number if they wished to initiate the interview process.

Also, in 127 cases where Elections Canada had received an updated address since January 23, 2006, letters were sent to the new address as well.

In the cases where the envelopes were returned with a note from the occupant, Canada Post or a residence mail‐room indicating that the individual had moved, we accepted as verification that the individual had lived there on Election day. Eighty‐six (86) Polling Day Registrant names and addresses were verified in this manner.


4.2 Contact By Telephone

Shortly after the letters were issued, attempts were made to contact the same group of Polling Day Registrants through any available telephone number, including:

• Telephone directory number matching the Polling Day Registrant address or matching only the name, if the address was not available;

• Telephone directory number matching the new address since January 23, 2006 or matching the name if the former was not available; and

• Telephone number identified on the registration certificate.

As such, it was possible for a Polling Day Registrant to have as many as three telephone numbers to call and conversely, some telephone numbers were not available for some of the Polling Day Registrants that were sent a letter. The available Polling Day Registrant telephone numbers were called in the order listed above and each number was called up to ten times, at various times during the day, and on different days until contact was established, if at all.

During the process of looking for telephone numbers based on Polling Day Registrant names and addresses, we identified 25 Polling Day Registrant records where the digital telephone directory yielded the same name and address as was provided by the Polling Day Registrant. This is identical to the process followed by Elections Canada for verifying Polling Day Registrant names and addresses based on digital telephone directories (see section 2.4 of this Appendix).

The contact by telephone phase was aimed at contacting the individuals identified on the registration certificates to verify their address as on January 23, 2006. However, if this was not possible, the interviewers attempted to obtain and record additional information, including whether:


• The Polling Day Registrant is deceased,

• The Polling Day Registrant is unknown at this address, or

• The Polling Day Registrant has moved from this address.

The interviewers also noted whether they were not able to contact the individual at that address or whether the individual was unavailable.

Verified

Through this process, a total of 497 Polling Day Registrants were verified as living at the address indicated on the registration certificate on January 23, 2006.

Moved

A total of 28 Polling Day Registrants were verified by the current resident of the registration certificate address as having moved.

This resulted in a total of 525 Polling Day Registrant names and addresses being verified by the contact through the calling procedure.

4.3 Contact By Visit After attempting to contact the Polling Day Registrants through mail and telephone, we then attempted to contact those Polling Day Registrants that remained unverified by visiting the Polling Day Registrant address.

Navigant Consulting engaged PII Private Investigations International Inc., a firm of private investigators, to visit the selected Polling Day Registrant addresses to attempt to verify that the individual identified on the registration certificate or in the poll book lived at that address on January 23, 2006.

Each unverified Polling Day Registrant address was visited at least two times, if necessary, at varying times during the day


and week. An address verification was accepted under the following circumstances:

• The Polling Day Registrant verified their residency directly;

• A current occupant verified that the Polling Day Registrant was resident at the time of the election; and,

• Occupancy was determined by an alternate source such as a co‐habitant, building directory, superintendent or neighbour.

Of the 1,043 Polling Day Registrants visited from the Final List of Electors extract of 9,840, we were able to verify that 466 were resident at the addresses given, on or about January 23, 2006.

4.4 Additional Telephone Contact

At the conclusion of the matching process, further attempts were made by telephone to contact all Polling Day Registrants who remained unverified. Section 6.5 of this Appendix discusses the results of the attempted contact of those Polling Day Registrants identified from the poll books.

It was anticipated that in cases where the Polling Day Registrant was a younger voter, a previous address recorded in the National Register of Electors may represent the home of the Polling Day Registrant’s family. Therefore, if contact could be established at this address with the Polling Day Registrant or a member of their family, verification of the Polling Day Registrant’s address at the time of the election could then be attempted.

For the 458 Polling Day Registrants extracted from the Final List of Electors that were unverified, 450 addresses were identified from these electors’ current Canada Revenue Agency or Ontario Driver Licence files. These addresses were then used to identify telephone numbers that were called using the same procedures as in section 4.2 of this Appendix.


Through this process 199 Polling Day Registrants were verified as living, or having lived, at the address indicated in the Final List of Electors on January 23, 2006.


5.0 ADDITIONAL ADDRESS MATCHING METHODS

5.1 Matches by Association

Elections Canada developed and implemented a methodology to verify the remaining unmatched Polling Day Registrants from the Final List of Electors extract by matching family members and / or partners of the Polling Day Registrant name at the address on the registration certificate.

Navigant Consulting reviewed the process utilized by Elections Canada and coordinated their implementation of the following tests:

• Family Name Matching ‐ using Elections Canada administrative sources to identify individuals with the same family name as the Polling Day Registrant at the Polling Day Registrant address.

• Partner Matching ‐ using Elections Canada administrative sources to verify that individuals with a different family name, but currently living at the Polling Day Registrant address, also shared a previous address with the unverified Polling Day Registrant.

This data source verified thirty‐six (36) Polling Day Registrant names located at the addresses identified in the Final List of Electors.


5.2 National Change of Address Directory

The National Change of Address Directory (NCOA) is maintained by Canada Post and contains a move history of people across the country. As subscribers provide Canada Post with information on their move, the registry is updated with a “Move From” and a “Move To” location. This is maintained for purposes of mail redirection. Using this directory, Elections Canada was able to verify nine (9) Polling Day Registrant addresses from the Final List of Electors extract.


6.0 MATCHING OF ADDITIONAL POLLING DAY REGISTRANTS IDENTIFIED FROM POLL BOOKS & REGISTRATION CERTIFICATES

As described in Section 5.0 of the report, 898 additional Polling Day Registrants were identified from reviewing the Trinity–Spadina poll books and registration certificates. These are Polling Day Registrants that were either recorded in the poll books or completed a registration certificate but were not captured into the Final List of Electors.

6.1 Elections Canada Administrative Sources

Elections Canada employed, to the extent possible, the same processes and procedures as outlined in section 2 to determine whether the Elections Canada administrative sources had records of the Polling Day Registrant names in the 898 poll book entries located at the addresses identified in these poll book entries. In addition to the data sources described above, Elections Canada also compared the Polling Day Registrant addresses to those in the following databases to obtain an address verification: Citizenship and Immigration; Ontario Voters List; Canada Post’s National Change of Address database and the Elections Canada REVISE database.

Upon further examination, Navigant Consulting found a corresponding registration certificate for 103 of the poll book Polling Day Registrants. The remaining 795 poll book Polling Day Registrants did not have a date of birth, middle name and in many cases specific address details. This likely contributed to the lower success in address verification than the Polling Day Registrants extracted from the Final List of Electors.

6.1.1 Canada Revenue Agency

The CRA files verified 122 names located at the addresses identified in the poll book entries.

6.1.2 Ontario Driver Licence

The ODL files verified 159 names located at the addresses identified in the poll book entries.


6.1.3 Municipal Property Assessment Corporation

The MPAC files verified twenty‐seven (27) names located at the addresses identified in the poll book entries.

6.1.4 Cornerstone Digital Telephone Directories

The digital telephone directory files verified twelve (12) names located at the address identified in the poll book entries.

6.1.5 Other Data Sources

As listed in Section 6.1 Elections Canada employed other databases for address verification. This resulted in 28 names located at the addresses identified in the poll book entries.

6.2 Independent Source – Information Management Company

Only those poll book Polling Day Registrants for which we could obtain a date of birth were compared to our independent database as noted in section 3 of this Appendix. This consisted of 676 Polling Day Registrants, most of whom were linked to a date of birth that was based on a record with the same name from the National Register of Electors.

The independent database verified 210 names located at the addresses identified in the poll book entries.

6.3 Contact by Visits The addresses for a significant number of the poll book and registration certificate Polling Day Registrants were visited by representatives of PII Private Investigations International Inc. This was mainly due to timing, as the poll book and registration certificate Polling Day Registrants were finalized at roughly the same time as visits were being conducted for the remaining unverified Final List of Electors Polling Day Registrants.

Of the 898 additional poll book and registration certificate Polling Day Registrants, 555 were visited, representing those Polling Day Registrants that remained unverified at the time. The results were 162 names verified as being located at the


addresses identified in the poll book entries or on the registration certificates.

6.4 Additional Address Matching Methods

The matching methods described in section 5 of this Appendix were also applied, to the extent possible, to the Polling Day Registrants identified from the poll books and registration certificates.

6.4.1 Matches By Association

Using the methodology described in section 5.1 of this Appendix, Elections Canada was able to verify two (2) Polling Day Registrant names located at the addresses provided in the poll books.

6.4.2 National Change of Address Directory

Elections Canada compared the addresses of the poll book and registration certificate Polling Day Registrants to addresses in this directory where there was a name match, and was able to verify four (4) Polling Day Registrant addresses.

6.5 Contact by Telephone

Section 4.4 of this Appendix describes the procedures for the additional contact by telephone that were attempted for all Polling Day Registrants that remained unverified.

For the 144 Polling Day Registrants identified from the poll books that remained unverified, 84 potential previous addresses were identified. These addresses were then used to identify telephone numbers that were called using the same procedures as in section 4.2 of this Appendix.

Through this process twenty‐eight (28) Polling Day Registrants were verified as living, or having lived, at the address indicated in the poll books on January 23, 2006.




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1.0 EXAMINATION AND IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL MULTIPLE VOTING BY POLLING DAY REGISTRANTS

In addition to verifying the address submitted by the Polling Day Registrants, we were also requested to assess the potential that the Polling Day Registrants in Trinity–Spadina voted more than once, either within the riding of Trinity–Spadina, or in other Electoral Districts.

We note that under our mandate, we were to identify those instances where the available information indicated that a Polling Day Registrant may have voted more than once. We understand that any such instances identified would be provided to the Chief Electoral Officer who may then decide to refer them to the Commissioner of Canada Elections, who would determine what further action, if any, would be undertaken by Elections Canada.

For the purpose of this review, three scenarios were identified, and discussed with Elections Canada, which could result in a Polling Day Registrant voting more than once.

i) The Polling Day Registrant was already registered in a different Polling Division than the one they registered at on polling day, either within Trinity–Spadina or in another


Electoral District, therefore providing an opportunity to vote more than once.

ii) The Polling Day Registrant could vote either at an advance poll or by special ballot elsewhere in the country, and also as a Polling Day Registrant in Trinity–Spadina.

iii) The Polling Day Registrant registered on polling day at multiple Polling Divisions within Trinity–Spadina.

1.1 Process Undertaken to Assess Potential Multiple Voting by Polling Day Registrants through Multiple Polling Divisions

For the purpose of this task, the population of Polling Day Registrants was segregated into three distinct groups based on the elector code classifications, as described in section 4.2. These groups are Adds, Transfers and Moves.

We note that the 898 Polling Day Registrants not recorded in the Final List of Electors, as discussed in section 5.1.2, were excluded from this process due to both the lack of information available about them and the timing of our discovery of these records following the work having been performed on the Polling Day Registrants extracted from the Final List of Electors.

The ability to identify potential instances of multiple voting is dependent on the links established between Polling Day Registrants and the previously existing records in the National Register of Electors. When these links are established, the Polling Day Registrant is classified as either a Transfer or a Move.

As noted in Appendix A5, section 1.3, we tested these links to ensure that the historical record that was linked to the Polling Day Registrant is correct. Based on this testing, we are satisfied that, despite the existence of some errors, the majority of the links established appear to be accurate.

Using the links, we then determined which Polling Day Registrants were previously registered in a Polling Division other than the one where they registered on polling day.


The Polling Day Registrants classified as Adds (3,839) are considered to be new electors as there was no corresponding record on any official list that matched the information they provided. Since these Polling Day Registrants appear to be new electors, these records have been excluded from the review of potential multiple voting under scenarios (i) and (ii), above.

The Polling Day Registrants for whom a corresponding record was found on an Official List of Electors somewhere in Canada, are therefore classified as either Transfers (4,913) or Moves (1,088) and are included in this review under scenarios (i) and (ii).

In terms of the process for voting on polling day, we understand that the registered elector’s name is “ink‐lined” or stroked off the Official List of Electors by the Poll Clerk when the electors present themselves to vote. For the Transfer and Move Polling Day Registrants, the review process undertaken was therefore to examine the Official List of Electors for the poll where the elector was previously registered to identify whether they may have voted at their old address as well as at the new poll where they registered.

Our review and the results are discussed in sections 1.2 and 1.3 below for Transfers and Moves, respectively.

1.2 Potential Multiple Voting by Polling Day Registrants Classified as Transfers

For the 4,913 Polling Day Registrants classified as Transfers, we undertook to assess whether the Polling Day Registrant may have also voted in the electoral district where their previous address was located.

As it would be necessary to open thousands of individual poll bags from all over the country in order to locate the corresponding Official List of Electors for the old address of each Polling Day Registrant, Navigant Consulting, with the aid of a statistical expert, designed the methodology and selected a


sample of 400 of these Polling Day Registrants for testing. We also verified that the geographic distribution of the sample Polling Day Registrants reflected the geographic distribution of the total 4,913 Polling Day Registrant Transfers.

As noted in Section 1.3 of Appendix A5, our random sample was reduced to 381, as a result of

i. not being able to test the link to the National Register of Electors for twelve (12) records, and

ii. seven (7) records where the link was determined to be incorrect and unable to be corrected by Elections Canada.

The resulting 381 Polling Day Registrants were from 378 different Polling Divisions in 131 different Electoral Districts. Elections Canada was unable to locate the Official List of Electors for thirty‐seven (37) Polling Day Registrants (located in thirty‐six (36) Polling Divisions). This further reduced our sample to 344 Polling Day Registrants. However, because this had been built in to the design of the test, the reduced sample size still allowed the same predictive confidence limits.

Findings

Of these 344 Polling Day Registrants classified as Transfers we found that:

• 332 were not ”ink‐lined” on the Official List of Electors at their previous address, indicating multiple voting at the previous Polling Division did not likely occur.

• Eleven (11) had a computer‐generated line through their name indicating they were removed or that they had moved from their previous address, indicating that multiple voting at the previous Polling Division did not likely occur.


• One (1) had a computer‐generated line through the name marked by a code indicating that the individual had voted at an advance poll. This individual has been referred to Elections Canada as having potentially voted twice.

Based on the reduced sample size of 344, and the fact that we found one potential double voter, Navigant Consulting estimates the rate of potential double voters in the total population of Polling Day Registrants classified as Transfers to be between 0.02% and 1.55%, at a 95% confidence level. We caution that this result is based on data for the Electoral District of Trinity–Spadina, and should not be used to extrapolate over the population of Canada, given that Trinity–Spadina appears to be a somewhat unique electoral district.

1.3 Potential Multiple Voting by Polling Day Registrants Classified as Moves

Since all of the available Official Lists of Electors for Trinity–Spadina were available to us, except as noted in section 3.2 of the report, Navigant Consulting elected to review all Polling Day Registrants with an elector status of Move for potential multiple voting.

As noted in section 1.3 of Appendix A5, the number of Polling Day Registrants classified as Moves that we have included in our potential voting testing has been reduced from 1,088 to 1,057.

For the 1,057 Polling Day Registrants classified as Moves, twenty‐three (23) were not found on the Official List of Electors at their previous address, likely due to a slight difference in the name used for registration purposes. Also, the Official List of Electors for forty‐three (43) Polling Day Registrant Moves were unavailable. Therefore, it was only possible to assess 991 Polling Day Registrant Moves against the Official List of Electors.

For these 991 records, we reviewed the Official List of Electors of the Polling Day Registrant’s previous address to determine if


there was a potential that the Polling Day Registrant voted more than once, based on whether their individual listing in the Official List of Electors was “ink‐lined”.

Findings

Of the 991 records of Polling Day Registrants classified as Moves that were available for review, we found that:

• 736 were not ”ink‐lined” on the Official List of Electors at their previous address, indicating multiple voting at the previous Polling Division did not likely occur.

• 243 had a computer‐generated line through their name indicating they were removed or that they had moved from their previous address, indicating multiple voting at the previous Polling Division did not likely occur.

• Twelve (12) were “ink‐lined” on the Official List of Electors at their previous address, indicating the potential for double voting. Upon further investigation:

• Eight (8) of these were eliminated as having potentially voted twice for a number of reasons. For example, some of the Registration Certificates were used as “correction certificates” for moves within a Polling Division. Also, some of the ink lines included an explanation as to why they had been crossed out.

• Four (4) Polling Day Registrant Moves were referred to Elections Canada as having potentially voted twice, e.g., they registered to vote in one Polling Division and their name was struck off the Official List of Electors of their previous address (Polling Division).


1.4 Process Undertaken to Assess Potential Multiple Voting by Polling Day Registrants – Advance Poll or Special Ballot

Under scenario (ii), multiple voting could potentially occur if the Polling Day Registrants also voted at an advance poll or by using a special ballot. While these instances would have been identified in the potential multiple voting testing described in section 7.1, testing the potential for multiple voting at an advance poll or by special ballot by all Polling Day Registrants was facilitated by the computerized records of Elections Canada.

In order to assess potential multiple voting by Polling Day Registrants through advance polls or special ballot, Elections Canada ran a query of the 10,040 Polling Day Registrants in the Final List of Electors extract to determine if any of these Polling Day Registrants had a voting status code that would indicate that they had voted at an advance poll or requested a special ballot prior to January 23, 2006, polling day. This query was subsequently repeated by Navigant Consulting.

Findings

In addition to the instances of potential multiple voting identified in sections 1.2 and 1.3 of this Appendix, this test identified eight (8) Polling Day Registrants that were recorded as having voted at an advance poll and six (6) Polling Day Registrants that were recorded as having received a special ballot.

Of the eight recorded as having voted at an advance poll, it was determined that the link established by Elections Canada for three of these Polling Day Registrants was incorrect. As a result, the remaining five names have been reported to the Chief Electoral Officer who may then decide to refer them to the Commissioner of Canada Elections for further review.

Of the six recorded as having received a special ballot, it was determined that the link established by Elections Canada for three of these Polling Day Registrants was incorrect. In


addition, for the remaining three Polling Day Registrants, the special ballots were not recorded as being received by Elections Canada, and based on the addresses used for mailing the ballots, the electors may not have received them.

1.5 Potential for Voting More Than Once within Trinity–Spadina

Scenario (iii), above, would apply to all of the 10,738 Polling Day Registrants as they could have potentially registered to vote on polling day, using the same name and address, at more than one polling station. We understand that while electors should not be permitted to vote at a polling station other than the one associated with their address, this does occasionally occur.

Based on the documentation reviewed, we did not identify any instances that would indicate that an individual had registered, using the same name and address, to vote at more than one Polling Division within the riding of Trinity–Spadina.




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1.0 NAVIGANT CONSULTING TESTING OF ELECTIONS CANADA WORK

Elections Canada had already performed extensive work towards verifying the addresses of the Polling Day Registrants of Trinity–Spadina in the 39th General Election prior to the commencement of our review. Therefore, it was necessary for us to review this work to ensure that the results were accurate.

1.1 Navigant Consulting Review of Elections Canada Polling Day Registrant Database

Navigant Consulting relied on a database containing the Final List of Electors extract of Polling Day Registrants provided by Elections Canada to commence our review. In order to ensure this information was accurate, we performed various reviews of the data.

Review of the Final List of Electors Extract Query

Navigant Consulting reviewed the procedures employed by Elections Canada Operations that resulted in the list of 10,040 Polling Day Registrants extracted from the Final List of Electors. The database “queries” that were used to compile this list were regenerated and re‐ran. The result was a list of 10,040 names that was identical to the list provided by Elections Canada at the outset of our engagement.


Review of the Available Registration Certificates

We reviewed all of the available registration certificates to gather the information pertaining to how the elector was qualified (i.e. identification provided or vouching), as well as to determine how many of the records identified as Polling Day Registrants were supported by a registration certificate.

Testing of the Data Capture

Prior to address verification, Elections Canada needed to ensure that the addresses captured on the registration certificates had been correctly data entered into the Elections Canada database.

Navigant Consulting obtained a copy of all available registration certificates and selected a random sample of 334 to compare to the information in the Final List of Electors database.

Any differences between the two could be the result of the following:

• Inaccurate post‐polling day capture of the Registration Certificates by Revising Agents in the Returning Office;

• Updates and/or corrections performed by Elections Canada Headquarters based on additional information from the National Register of Electors; or

• Inaccurate capture by Elections Canada into the Excel spreadsheet schedules developed during their review of the registration certificates. This applied primarily to the transcription of registration certificate information indicating whether the Polling Day Registrant showed identification or was vouched for when they registered.

Navigant Consulting developed an assessment scheme for comparing the information on the actual Registration Certificate and the information in the Final List of Electors


database and / or the Excel spreadsheet schedules documenting the findings of the Elections Canada review. Potential errors were categorized as follows:

• Type 1 ‐ variance between the registration certificate and the Final List of Electors database that is clearly a correction to a spelling error or a misprint on the original registration certificate. These differences did not materially impact on our tasks related to verifying Polling Day Registrant names and addresses using independent third‐party data sources.

• Type 2 ‐ variance between the registration certificate and the Final List of Electors database that could materially impact on our tasks related to verifying Polling Day Registrant names and addresses using independent third‐party data sources. An example of this might be an improperly captured date of birth. This could call into question the validity of the Polling Day Registrant verification.

• Type 3 ‐ variances between the registration certificate and the Excel spreadsheet schedules documenting findings of the Elections Canada review that would produce an inaccurate count of Polling Day Registrants that showed identification or were vouched for.

The results of our review using the sample of 334 breaks out as follows:

• 163 Type 1 errors

• 8 Type 2 errors

• 0 Type 3 errors

For the Type 2 errors (the most critical for address matching) the overall error rate for the total population after finding eight


errors in a sample of 334 has an upper bound of 4.24%. This is at a 95% confidence level.

1.2 Navigant Consulting Review of Polling Day Registrant Addresses Matched Through Elections Canada Work

Prior to the commencement of our work, Elections Canada had already used several of its administrative database sources to verify the addresses of the Polling Day Registrants based on the 10,040 records in the Final List of Electors extract.

Navigant Consulting reviewed the work completed by Elections Canada and re‐performed the matching techniques undertaken by Elections Canada for each of the four following database sources that were used to verify Polling Day Registrant addresses:

• Canada Revenue Agency (CRA)

• Ontario Driver Licence (ODL)

• Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC)

• Cornerstone Digital Telephone Directories (CDTD)

For each of the above administrative sources, Navigant Consulting reviewed and documented the procedures employed by Elections Canada to prepare and match the data. We then selected Polling Day Registrant records that were identified by Elections Canada as either matches or non‐matches, and re‐ran the matching procedures to compare the results. In all cases, the procedures yielded the same results as previously reported by Elections Canada.


1.3 Navigant Consulting Review of Links Established Between Polling Day Registrants and the National Register of Electors

The ability to determine whether any of the Polling Day Registrants may have voted more than once is dependent on whether or not the Polling Day Registrant was already registered in the List of Electors but at another Polling Division, possibly in another Electoral District. To determine this, Elections Canada attempts to link each Polling Day Registrant to an historical record based on unique information provided upon registration.

If the Polling Day Registrant can be linked, the Electoral District and Polling Division that they previously resided at can be identified. With this information, we can review the Official List of Electors for that Polling Division for any indication that the Polling Day Registrant may have also voted at their previous address.

Elections Canada was able to establish links for 6,001 of the 9,840 Polling Day Registrants identified from the Final List of Electors. The remaining 3,839 Polling Day Registrants could not be linked and were therefore classified as Adds. The 898 Polling Day Registrants identified during our review were not subject to attempts to establish links.

Of these 6,001 links, 4,913 were identified as Transfers, meaning the previous address was in another Electoral District, and 1,088 were identified as Moves, meaning the previous address was within Trinity–Spadina.

Navigant Consulting tested these links to determine whether the link established was made based on an adequate amount of unique information being provided by the Polling Day Registrant. The testing was performed on links established for Polling Day Registrants identified as both Transfers and Moves.


Testing of Links – Transfers

Of the 4,913 Polling Day Registrants identified as Transfers, we reviewed the links for a sample of 400. Included in our sample were twelve (12) Polling Day Registrants for whom we were not provided a copy of the registration certificate and therefore were unable to verify the accuracy of the link.

For the 388 Polling Day Registrants for which a Registration Certificate was provided, the links were accurate for 379. Of the nine (9) inaccurate links, Elections Canada was able to identify the correct link for two (2) Polling Day Registrants.

As a result, we were able to test 381 Polling Day Registrants classified as Transfers for potential multiple voting. The results of this testing is discussed in section 1.2 of Appendix A4.

Testing of Links – Moves

Of the 1,088 Polling Day Registrants identified as Moves, twenty‐eight (28) registration certificates were not provided meaning that 1,060 of the links could be tested. These twenty‐eight (28) Polling Day Registrants classified as Moves were excluded from our potential multiple voting testing.

In a random sample of 197 of the 1,060 Polling Day Registrants classified as Moves for which a Registration Certificate was provided, 194 of the links were accurate. Elections Canada was unable to identify a correct link for the three Polling Day Registrants that were linked incorrectly. As a result, we have excluded these three Polling Day Registrants classified as Moves from our potential multiple voting testing.

As a result of the above findings, we are satisfied that any additional incorrect links that may exist will not adversely affect the results of our potential multiple voting testing for the 1,057 Polling Day Registrants classified as Moves, as detailed in section 1.3 of Appendix A4.


In addition, for any instance where there was an indication of potential multiple voting, the link was examined to ensure that it was accurate.

1.4 Navigant Consulting Review of Address Validity

Prior to verifying that the names and addresses in the Final List of Electors extract database of 10,040 Polling Day Registrants in Trinity–Spadina were supported by an independent third‐party data source, Elections Canada sought to ensure that the addresses indicated were, in fact, valid.

This included:

• Verifying that the Polling Day Registrant addresses consisted of valid street names and street numbers,

• Verifying that the addresses were classified as residential, and

• Ensuring that the Polling Day Registrant addresses were located within the Trinity–Spadina Electoral District.

1.4.1 Validate Street Names and Street Number Ranges

Navigant Consulting reviewed and verified the geo‐coding procedures employed by Elections Canada to assess the validity and location of the Polling Day Registrant addresses and is satisfied that the results are accurate.

1.4.2 Verify That Polling Day Registrant Addresses are Residential Property Classification

Navigant Consulting reviewed and verified the Corporate Address Register and Municipal Property Assessment Corporation data procedures employed by Elections Canada to assess the property classification of the Polling Day Registrant addresses and is satisfied that the results are accurate.


1.4.3 Verify That Polling Day Registrant Addresses are Located in the Trinity–Spadina Electoral District

Elections Canada has also determined that three electors who registered in Trinity–Spadina provided addresses that were located in the adjacent Electoral District of Davenport. A Navigant Consulting review of these addresses has verified their location.




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1.0 INTRODUCTION In investigating and determining the answers to the questions raised concerning the identified Polling Day Registrants, the following sections of the Canada Elections Act were identified as being relevant to conducting our review:

1.1 Elector Name Appears on the List of Electors

“143. (1) Each elector, on arriving at the polling station, shall give his or her name and address to the deputy returning officer and the poll clerk, and on request to a representative of the candidate.

(2) The poll clerk shall ascertain if the name of the elector appears on the list of electors and, if it does, the elector’s name shall be crossed off the list and, subject to section 144, the elector shall be immediately allowed to vote.”

“144. (1) A deputy returning officer, poll clerk, candidate or candidate’s representative who has doubts concerning the identity or right to vote of a person intending to vote at a polling station may request that the person show satisfactory proof of identity and residence.

(2) A person may, instead of showing satisfactory proof of identity, take the prescribed oath.


(3) Once an elector has been given a ballot, no person shall require the elector to show proof of identity or take an oath.”

1.2 Elector Name Does Not Appear on the List of Electors

“149. An elector whose name does not appear on the official list of electors in his or her polling station shall not be allowed to vote unless the elector

(a) …

(b) …

(c) gives the deputy returning officer a registration certificate described in subsection 161(4).”

“161. (1) An elector whose name is not on the list of electors may register in person on polling day if

(a) the elector provides satisfactory proof of identity and residence; or

(b) the elector takes an oath in the prescribed form and is accompanied by an elector whose name appears on the list of electors for the same polling division and who vouches for him or her on oath in the prescribed form.

. (2) Where subsection (1) applies, the registration may take place before

(a) a registration officer at a registration desk established under subsection 39(1); or

(b) a deputy returning officer at a polling station with respect to which the Chief Electoral Officer determines that the officer be authorized to receive registrations

(3) In the case of a registration under paragraph (2)(a), the registration officer shall permit one representative of each candidate in the electoral district to be present.


(4) Where the elector satisfies the requirements of subsection (1), the registration officer or deputy returning officer, as the case may be, shall complete a registration certificate in the prescribed form authorizing the elector to vote and the elector shall sign it.

(5) When a registration certificate is given under subsection (4), the list of electors is deemed, for the purposes of this Act, to have been modified in accordance with the certificate.

(6) No elector shall vouch under paragraph (1)(b) for more than one elector at an election.”.

1.3 Retention of Election Documents

“540 (1) The Chief Electoral Officer shall retain in his or her possession the election documents sent to him or her by a returning officer, with the return of the writ, for at least one year if the election is not contested during that time and, if the election is contested, for one year after the end of the contestation.

(2) The Chief Electoral Officer shall, for at least two years after receiving them, retain in his or her possession, on film or in electronic form, all documents that relate to the updating of the Register of Electors.

(3) No election documents, or documents that relate to the establishment or updating of the Register of Electors, that are retained in the custody of the Chief Electoral Officer under subsection (1) or (2) shall, during the period of their retention, be inspected or produced except under an order of a judge of a superior court, which, if made, the Chief Electoral Officer shall obey.


(4) Subsection (3) does not prohibit the Chief Electoral Officer, any authorized member of his or her staff or the Commissioner from inspecting the documents referred to in that subsection, and any of those documents may be produced by the Commissioner for the purpose of an inquiry made under section 510 or provided to the Director of Public Prosecutions who may produce them for the purpose of a prosecution — or possible prosecution — by the Director for an offence under this Act.

(5) When a judge of a superior court has ordered the production of election documents, the Chief Electoral Officer need not, unless the judge orders otherwise, appear personally to produce them but shall certify the documents and send them by courier to the clerk or registrar of the court, who shall, when the documents have served the purposes of the judge, return them by courier to the Chief Electoral Officer.

(6) Documents purporting to be certified by the Chief Electoral Officer are admissible in evidence without further proof.

(7) In any proceedings under this Act, a print that is made from a photographic film or from a document in electronic form made by the Chief Electoral Officer for the purpose of keeping a permanent record of a document, and certified by the Chief Electoral Officer or by a person acting in the name of or under the direction of the Chief Electoral Officer, is admissible in evidence for all purposes for which the recorded document would be admitted as evidence, without proof of the signature or official character of the person appearing to have signed the certificate.

(8) A judge may make an order under subsection (3) on being satisfied by evidence on oath that the inspection or production of a document referred to in that subsection is required for the purpose of instituting or maintaining a prosecution for an offence in relation to an election or for the purpose of an application under subsection 524(1).


(9) An order for the inspection or production of election documents or documents that relate to the updating of the Register of Electors may be made subject to any conditions with respect to persons, time, place and mode of inspection or production that the judge considers appropriate.”