THE LAW OF THE JUNGLE How can New Zealand Navigate Global Disruption?

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NZIIA Conference 2018

Tuesday 27 February 2018 Michael Fowler Centre, Wellington

The NZIIA Conference 2018 brings leading thinkers and decision-makers together to look forward to see how New Zealand can navigate global disruption.

This is a unique chance for you to be inspired, look forward, exchange ideas, and connect with leading experts from home and abroad.

Keynote: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern

NZIIA Conference 2018

THE LAW OF THE JUNGLE How can New Zealand Navigate Global Disruption?

About The NZIIA Conference 2018 brings leading thinkers together to discuss how New Zealand can navigate global disruption. The conference addresses the tectonic shifts rocking the geo-political landscape today: collective security in a multipolar world, economic stability with protectionism on the rise, and changes in the world order. This conference will encourage blue-sky thinking on how New Zealand, a small state dependent on an open rules-based global system, can thrive in an unsettled world. What risks sit under the radar but can dramatically affect New Zealand inc. and our economic wellbeing? What trade, technology, and security policies should New Zealand pursue to capitalise on the current global disruption? How will the current international climate impact New Zealanders?

Outline

0800 – 0830 Registration and Refreshments

0830 – 0845 WELCOME 0845 – 0915 OPENING KEYNOTE - A Vision for Global NZ, Prime Minister of New Zealand

0915 – 1030 SESSION 1 - The World Order Today: Is it Fit for Purpose? 1030 – 1100 Refreshments

1100 – 1200 SESSION 2 - Security: Threats without Borders1200 – 1300 SESSION 3 - Asia Pacific: Game of Thrones in our Backyard?

1300 – 1400 Lunch supported by the British High Commission1400 – 1430 KEYNOTE CONVERSATION - Nobel Peace Prize Laureate

1430 – 1530 SESSION 4 - Diffusion of Power in the Digital Age1530 – 1600 Refreshments supported by the NZ China Council

1600 – 1700 SESSION 5 - World Economy & Trade: Is Asia Re-inventing the Rules? 1700 – 1715 CONCLUDING REMARKS

Speakers and Chairs

Rt Hon Jacinda Ardern

Prime Minister

Maty Nikkhou-O'Brien Executive Director, NZIIA (Conf Host)

Sir Doug Kidd President, NZIIA

Andrew Thomas Correspondent, Al

Jazeera

Rt Hon Jim Bolger, Former Prime

Minister

HE Laura Clarke British High

Commissioner

Prof Dingli Shen Fudan University

Em Prof Sir Ken Keith

VUW Law School

HE Ewen McDonald Australian High Commissioner

Prof Rouben Azizian Director, CDSS

Lt Gen Tim Keating Chief of the NZ Defence Force

Dr Matthew Reid Médecins Sans

Frontières

Prof Tim Naish Director, Antarctic

Centre, VUWDr Fiona Barker

Victoria UniversitySimon Murdoch

Asia-NZ FoundationAllan Gyngell

President, AIIADr Cleo Paskal Chatham House

Dr Anna Powles Massey University

Joy Dunsheath President UNANZ

Tim Wright Nobel Peace Prize

Laureate ICANDan O’Brien

Technology AdvisorAndrew Hampton Director, GCSB

Prof Robert Patman Otago University

Greg Doone Strategy & Data PwC

Alexandra Lutyens Digital Unit, MFAT

H E Toshihisa Takata Japanese

Ambassador

Vangelis Vitalis Deputy Secretary,

MFAT

Stephen Jacobi, Executive Director, NZ China Council

Tim Ng Deputy Secretary,

TreasuryEm Prof Rob Rabel, Vice-President, NZIIA

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Agenda

0800 - 0830 Registration and refreshments

0830 – 0845 Welcome and opening remarks

Maty Nikkhou-O’Brien, Executive Director, New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA)

0845 – 0915 KEYNOTE SPEECH - A Vision for Global NZ, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern

Chair: Hon Sir Douglas Kidd, President, NZIIA Speaker: Rt Hon Jacinda Ardern, Prime Minister of New Zealand

0915 - 1030 SESSION 1 - The World Order Today: Is it Fit for Purpose?

The world will not stand still as Western democracies attend to domestic swings. The inexorable shift of economic power from West to East in the past two decades demonstrates that modernity takes many shapes and forms. Whilst developed states struggle to tackle the unfair distribution of global gains, others leapfrog and lift millions out of poverty. The unipolar moment described famously as the “End of History” in the late 1990s was fleeting, and the liberal world order, as it stands today, is under question. Are the systems and norms, largely developed in the 20th century, that underpin relations between states adapted to today’s world? Who does New Zealand look to for global leadership when moral authority in international relations is sorely lacking? What could cause the world order to break further and how can we prevent it? Chair: Andrew Thomas, Sydney Correspondent, Al Jazeera Speakers: - Rt Hon James Bolger, former Prime Minister of New Zealand - HE Laura Clarke, British High Commissioner to New Zealand - Prof Dingli Shen, Professor and Associate Dean, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University - Sir Ken Keith, Emeritus Professor, School of Law, VUW, former Judge at International Court of Justice - HE Ewen McDonald, Australian High Commissioner to New Zealand

1030 - 1100 Break and refreshments

1100 - 1200 SESSION 2 - Security: Threats without Borders

The advent of our global civilisation has placed the sovereignty of nation-states in question. Hard boundaries, such as national borders, are no barrier for the currency of today’s world – the whole-scale spread of information. In this session, we will talk about security challenges that cross borders: food security, terrorism, and climate change among others. How can we anticipate and plan for state collapse where civil conflict is driven by displacement and natural disaster? What role can New Zealand’s soft power play in today’s highly polarised international political climate?

Chair: Prof Rouben Azizian, Director, Centre for Defence and Security Studies, Massey University Lead Speaker: Lt Gen Tim Keating, Chief of the New Zealand Defence Force Speakers: - Dr Matthew Reid,  Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors Without Borders)  - Prof Tim Naish, Director, Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington

- Dr Fiona Barker, Senior Lecturer, Political Science and International Relations Programme, Victoria University

1200 - 1300 SESSION 3 - Asia Pacific: Game of Thrones in our Backyard?

The tightrope of doing business and enhancing security is a key challenge in our Asia Pacific neighbourhood. New Zealand treads judiciously; the China Free Trade Agreement has brought great economic boon, whilst New Zealand’s security arrangements are still very much linked to traditional partners. Heightened concerns over North Korea threaten the basis of international security within the Pacific. Does New Zealand have to choose between security and the economy? What are the political ramifications of trade and investment initiatives that include some nations but exclude others?

Chair: Simon Murdoch, Asia NZ Foundation Speakers: - Allan Gyngell, National President, Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) - Dr Cleo Paskal, Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House - Prof Dingli Shen, Professor and Associate Dean, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University - Dr Anna Powles, Senior Lecturer, Security Studies, Centre for Defence & Security Studies, Massey

University

1300 - 1400 Networking lunch supported by the British High Commission

1400– 1430 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CONVERSATION - Nobel Peace Prize Laureate

Chair: Joy Dunsheath, National President, United Nations Association of New Zealand Speaker: Tim Wright, Asia-Pacific Director, 2017 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) Journalist: Andrew Thomas, Al Jazeera

1430 – 1530 SESSION 4 - Diffusion of Power in the Digital Age

From cyber security to the impact of social media on diplomacy, technology plays a role in every area of foreign policy. What is the role of traditional diplomacy when a single tweet can alter decade-long policies? Military innovations such as automated weaponry could make the decision to go to war easier, which would shift the burden of armed conflict further onto civilians and create questions concerning accountability. Who would be legally responsible for a robot’s actions: the commander, programmer, manufacturer, or robot itself? Will cyber security become the primary battlefield in interstate conflict? Could personal data stored by multinational corporations pose a security threat?

Chair: Dan O’Brien, Technology Advisor Speakers: - Andrew Hampton, Director General, Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) - Prof Robert Patman, Department of Politics, Otago University - Greg Doone, Director, Digital Strategy and Data, PwC - Alexandra Lutyens, Unit Manager, Digital, MFAT

1530 - 1600 Networking break and refreshments supported by the NZ China Council

1600 – 1700 SESSION 5 - World Economy & Trade: Is Asia Re-inventing the Rules?

Emerging economies are projected to continue their notable growth over the next 25 years. China and India’s economic rise mean that by 2050 these two nations are predicted to account for over a third of the

world economy (GDP in PPPs). Initiatives such as the one trillion dollar One Belt One Road, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, where New Zealand is a founding member, seem set to change the established order. How can existing institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, whose voting mechanisms are stacked against emerging markets, adjust to this new reality?

Chair: Andrew Thomas, Al Jazeera Speakers: - HE Toshihisa Takata, Ambassador of Japan to New Zealand - Vangelis Vitalis, Deputy Secretary (Trade and Economic) and Chief Negotiator, CPTPP, MFAT - Stephen Jacobi, Executive Director, NZ International Business Forum, NZ China Council, APEC Business

Advisory Council (NZ) - Tim Ng, Deputy Secretary, Chief Economic Advisor, The Treasury

1700– 1715 Concluding remarks

Emeritus Prof Rob Rabel, Vice President, NZIIA Maty Nikkhou-O’Brien, Executive Director, NZIIA

End of conference

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For more information contact the New Zealand Institute of International AffairsT: (04) 463 5356 E: nziia@vuw.ac.nz W: www.nziia.org.nz @NZIIA_live #NZIIA2018