Developing countries in International Relations

Nigeria in 2050

Outline:

1. Political situation

2. Economic situation

3. Relations with neighbouring countries

4. Regional/Global Influence

5. Population

6 .Bibliography

1.Political situation

The present political tension across Nigeria, which has led to violence in a part of the

country, Rivers State, is provoked by the 2015 elections. Following general elections in

March 2015, Nigeria tried out its first democratic handover of power. Unlike other

elections since the 1999 democratic transition, these elections ran unmarred by

suspicions of vote cordage and widespread electoral violence. Muhammadu Buhari,

which is the elected president won with a vow to crack down on endemic corruption.

Nigeria is ranked at 136th position out of the 167 recorded corrupt countries.

Nigeria is governed by a democratic Executive Presidential System of government. The

Nigerians President is both head of state and head of government. The president also

heads the Federal Executive Council. Executive power is exercised by the government,

while legislative power is vested in both the government and the 2 chambers of the

legislature. Together they make the federal bi­cameral legislature so­called the National

Assembly.

The Representatives house, the lower house, consists of 360 seats. These seats are

picked per electoral districts. Just like the US model, they are based on the

first­past­the­post system. If a party obtains a relative plurality in an electoral district it

will receive all the seats in that district. The US system, in contrast to the Nigerian

system is based on smaller electoral districts within the diverse states. These smaller

districts all provide for one seat. The Senate, the upper house is made through a similar

first­past­the­post­system. However, the partitioning differs, since every state has 3

seats in the Senate, regardless of size of inhabitants.

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The People's Democratic Party (PDP) since the introduction of civilian rule has

controlled national politics. There are a series of challenges in the political arena as well

as in diverse regions, such as curbing internal religious and ethnic tensions. The

northern 12 states out of thirty­six apply Islamic Sharia law in addition to the national

democratic Constitution.

The current political crisis, that Nigeria deals with its essential for the country’s leaders

to avoid any actions that will imperil Nigeria’s last ten years of democratic progress as

well as the accomplishments that have been reached under civilian rule. Nigerians have

a right to expect their civilian and military leaders to work through their country’s

democratic institutions, ensuring that the good of the many triumphs over the ambitions

of the few.

Attacks of Boko Haram, an Islamist group operating in the north­east, together with

other religious and ethnic violence between Nigerians have afflicted the country.

Besides, MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta) rebels are

threatening the oil production in the South­East. Moreover, unfortunately Nigeria faces

an elevated level of corruption and criminality.

2. Economic situation It was recorded in 2013, that Nigeria became Africa’s largest economy, with the second largest stock exchange market in Africa, the economy has enjoyed sustainable growth rate for a decade, with annual REAL GDP increasing by around 7%, 6.3 in 2014. The non­oil sector has over the years improved as it now contributes about 50% of growth, and the manufacturing and agriculture contributes 9% and 21 % respectively. The economy is gradually diversifying in sectors like whole sale trade, real estate and services, but not at a very impressive rate. The 2015 growth rate was at 5% due to slow global economy recovery, and the country’s vulnerability in the oil sector which accounts

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for about 85% of exports and 75 % of the nation’s revenues. The oil price has led to a sharp decrease in revenues accounting for loss of about $11 billion between June and October 2015, this oil crisis has also affected the recent government’s ability to launch some of its ambitious program, the economic crisis has also affected the country’s high exchange rate, due to importation, salaries and other allowances have also been cut short, and despite being a member of OPEC, there has been a recorded fuel scarcity in the region, and with little or no electricity, and in the history of the nation it has never recorded a phenomenon as this. Embezzled funds meant for development has also greatly contributed to the present situation, and there is a present reform to recover billions of stolen funds within the region and abroad. Addressing security issues remains a key challenge, as the insurgency in the north of the country, has driven away potential investors and domestic growth, destroying millions worth of goods and infrastructure. However the current regional coalition force against Boko Haram appears to be making headway in subduing the insurgency, evident in the current return of over seven thousand internally displaced persons to their homes, with the help of the United States of America in terms of military equipment. Overcoming geographical and socio­economic barriers is central in achieving growth and sustainable development, rural­urban differences has to be addressed to create a more balanced development through job creation, availability of loans is crucial for small business owners, which in turn will develop the economy, as the growing population has made it difficult for availability of jobs .there are present policies under construction to give at least five thousand dollars to over a million young entrepreneurs ,and also construction of over one hundred thousand units of houses every year to make accommodation more affordable, standard and with modern facilities, in order to close the gap between rural­urban society. There is also a great need to diversify the economy paying more attention to the agricultural sector, with the provision of modern farming equipment’s, attractive rewards for farmers and provision of better telecommunication services and the banking sector. Because of the massive growth, and little development, there is a recent proposed campaign called “BUY NAIJA TO SAVE NAIJA” which simply means buy Nigerian products to boast the economy rather than import foreign items. There is presently a program called “SAVING ONE MILLION LIVES INITIATIVE” which is

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supported by the world bank with $500 million dollars to run from 2015 – 2019, this program is aimed to improve maternal and child care, and to foster more development, the nation has adopted the sustainable development goal number 7 of the United Nation, which aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable and sustainable energy for all by 2030. The nation has a lot of potential and a remarkable 2050 in terms of its economy can be

achieved, as the recent projection shows that the economy will rise from the 20th

biggest economy in the world to the 16th biggest economy in 2030, and still rise to the

9th biggest economy in 2050.

3. Relations with neighbouring countries

By 2050, Nigeria will be one of the leading economies in Africa and will reach the top

15 largest economies in the world. According to a United Nations report, Nigeria will be

the 4th most populous nation in the world. So we can say that by 2050, the relations

with other states will be laying much more on economic cooperations because the

federal Republic of Nigeria will try to maintain its relations with other states as strong as

possible to keep the country developing and to solve its internal problems.

­Political relations The relations with neighbouring countries will be on positive bilateral relations in

2050. as we can see that Nigeria has been struggling to maintain its diplomatic

relations with neighbouring countries including Cameroon even though the

cooperations between two countries has been humpered by misunderstandings

arising from:

∙ The presence of suspected Boko Haram members in Cameroon, the problems

inherent in the demarcation of the borders (including the lake area, sea and

land).

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∙ The fight of safeguard specific interests ( energy resources,wildlife, forest and

equatic).

∙ The significant presence of nigerians on Cameroon territory ( estimated at

4million people).

∙ The divergent interpretation of texts ( protesting bad faith by Nigeria with

respect to the 1975 Maroua Declaration and the Anglo­German Treaty of the

sea and land border dispute.

So in 2050 maybe only the problem of the sea and land border dispute between two

countries will continue due to increase of the population. İn other hand, the diplomatic

relations with neighbouring countries is getting better as currently Nigeria and its

neighbors have decided, to create a multinational joint task force (MNJTF) to fight

against the jihadists Boko Haram. The MNJTF must be equipped with 8700 soldiers,

police and civilians, and its headquarters will be located in N'Djamena, the Chadian

capital[3]. Following a meeting at the Abuja airport, the Nigerian capital of Nigeria

representatives, Chad, Niger, Benin and Cameroon announced that military force

should be operational by 30 July. It will be placed under Nigerian command, a

concession to the new Nigerian leader Muhammadu Buhari. This shows us how Nigeria

is struggling to maintain its political relations as positive as it can.

­Economic Relations

Nigeria relationship with her neighbors

Nigeria’s relationship with her neighbours is predicated mainly on the issue of avoiding

border disputes which might escalate into full­fledged armed hostilities. The series of

economic, sociocultural and other joint initiatives between these countries and Nigeria

are thus considered as preventive mechanisms directed at ensuring peaceful

coexistence of all the states in the sub region

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NIGERIA’S POLICY TOWARD HER NEIGHBOURS

Nigeria is surrounded on all sides by Francophone states (cameroon,chad,benin and

chad). Typically, her foreign policy goals and leadership aspirations in West­Africa

receive perhaps the greatest challenges from these states (Ede, 1986). Nigeria’s policy

toward her neighbours had since independence, been based largely on the following

four principles (Ogpu, 1967):

a. The sovereign equality of all African states.

b. Respect for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of every African

state.

c. Non­interference in the internal affairs of other African countries.

d. Commitment to functional cooperation as a means of promoting African unity. Based

on these principles, Nigeria has been totally indifferent to the internal political power

struggle in other states around her. The lukewarm attitude of Nigeria towards her

neighbours can also be attributed to feelings of phobia, real or imagined, of French

response in case of an overtly aggressive policy against any of those states that have

close colonial ties and cultural affinities with France.

Apart from african countries,Nigeria also has good economic relations with countries

like china,india, among others.

China­Nigeria relations

1. Bilateral Relations;

The bilateral relations between the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the

People’s Republic of china have expanded on growing bilateral trade and

strategic cooperation. China is considered one of Nigeria's closest allies and

partners. China is also one of Nigeria's important trading and export partners.

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According to a 2014 BBC World Service Poll, 85% of Nigerians view China's

influence positively, with only 10% expressing a negative view, making Nigeria

the most pro­Chinese nation in the world.

Nigeria and the People's Republic of China established formaldiplomatic

relations on February 10, 1971. Relations between the two nations grew closer

as a result of the international isolation and Western condemnation of Nigeria's

military regimes (1970s­1998). Nigeria has since become an important source of

oil and petroleum for China's rapidly growing economy and Nigeria is looking to

China for help in achieving high economic growth; China has provided extensive

economic, military and political support.

Although Nigeria maintains trade relations withTaiwan, and has arepresentative

office in Taipei, it issued a joint communiqué with China in 2005, reaffirming that

Beijing was "the only legitimate government representing the whole of China and

Taiwan is an unalienable part of its territory"

2. Strategic cooperation

Reacting to the hesitation of the United States and other Western nations in

providing military aid in fighting insurgents in the oil­rich Niger Delta to protect

Nigeria's oil resources, the Nigerian government has developed close military

cooperation with China, which has supplied arms, equipment, training and

technology to the Nigerian armed forces. Both nations also signed a USD 311

million agreement to develop cooperation in communications and space

programs.

According to the latest economic forecast published by international accountants PwC,

Nigeria is on course to become one of the world’s top 10 economies by the year 2050

overtaking countries by like the UK and france.

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4.Global and regional influence of Nigeria Nigeria is part of the “Big Five”, this name refers to their demographic, economic and military size but also to their historical role as regional leaders (Institute for Security Studies). “The Big five” is composed by Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Algeria and Egypt. Those countries have the largest potential of energy.

Nigeria is the largest country in Africa and is composed of 47% of West Africa's

population. Nigeria is the only country of the Big 5 that could become a global

significant player according to ISS. It already has the continent’s biggest economy, a

huge military budget and a fair record of regional engagement. By 2040 it will also be

the fourth largest country in the world after India, China and the United States.

Furthermore, because of its size and economic and political influence, Nigeria is often

called “the Giant of Africa”. In fact it has been playing an important role in peacekeeping

mission in countries like Sierra Leone or Liberia due to the civil war situation. Nigeria is

also see as a strong force and leading engine to West Africa’s economic development.

Moreover, in the annual “100 Most influential Africans of 2015”, which is a magazine

that present the continent’s power list in the fields of politics, public office, art and

culture, business, civil society, technology, media and sport; among 30 countries

represented, Nigeria dominates the list with South Africa.

But the ascension as a player in the worldwide ring is compromised by the internal

situation of Nigeria and the conflict against Boko Haram. In fact the government is more

focus in the internal policy by trying to fight against this organization and in making

plans to protect the population than to organize its economy. Moreover, Nigeria’s

presidents were fighting against high level of corruption.

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As a consequence, Nigeria is often accused of being unable to project power. But, with

the elections of the past year, and the victory of Muhammadu Buhari with a peaceful

transfer of power, “new hope arises that domestic peace and stability will be restored

and corruption reduced. This will boost its capacity for participating in regional,

continental and even global affairs”.

5.Population Nigeria is the most populated country in Africa.The current population is 185,825,853 (2016)based on the latest United Nations estimates. According to the UN predictions Nigeria will have a bigger population that US in 2050.It is also predicted that Nigeria will become 9th worlds economy,which explains why the population number will increase. Development will bring better medical care, sanitation, education, family planning measures. Age structure will also be different. Currently, the biggest age group in Nigeria is aged :0­14 (43,02% of the population), people aged 55+ are only 7% of the whole population. Nigeria has a very young population, the median of which is 18 years old. In 2050, when Nigeria will have a better economy, as it is predicted,the population will increase. Due to better medical care and better social policies, age structure will be more stable, number of group aged 55+ will increase rapidly and the number of people 1

aged 0­14 will decrease a little bit. Infant mortality in Nigeria is: 74.09 deaths/1,000 live births, which is a very big number of deaths comparing to 3 deaths/1,000 live births(Germany). So, in 2050 infant mortality will decrease. Average population growth is 2,7% p.a but it will decrease to 2.5% p.a due to greater education and family planning measures. Nigeria today Facts and problems Unfortunately, the situation of Nigeria now is not that optimistic. The country has the largest population of poor people in Africa (some might blame it on population

1 Life expectancy in Nigeria is 52,62 years old I think It will decrease by 2050 that is one of the reasons why population will grow.

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size).Nigeria faces corruption problems, unemployment, political instability, poor management of funds. Although Nigeria has many graduates, most of them are unemployed. Over 50% of the population lives below poverty line. Most of the people are giving up education because of lack of future perspectives . 2

Second big problem is HIV/AIDS and malaria. Above 4 mln people live with HIV/AIDS in Nigeria , a lot of them die without receiving medical care. I think that in future Nigerian government will try to educate people about contraception and teach how to avoid such diseases. Another problem is ethnic disputes. Half on the population is Muslim, 30%­ Christians, so there are ethnic and religious conflicts, especially between these 2 groups. There are also local terrorist groups.

2 A lot of Nigerians travel to UK to find a better opportunities.

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http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Project­and­Operati

ons/Nigeria%20­%202013­2017%20­%20Country%20Strategy%20Paper.p

df African development bank group, Federal Republic of Nigeria, country

strategy paper 2013­ 2017

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2015/afr/eng/pdf/sreo0415.pdf

world economic and financial surveys, regional economic outlook,

Sub­saharan Africa

http://www.pwc.com/world2050

http://www.heritage.org/index/country/nigeria

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http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria

Comparative Politics in Transition (John McCormick)

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/11/nigerians­dominate­new­africas­100­

most­influential­africans­of­2015/

http://english.cntv.cn/2015/04/03/ARTI1428042971736210.shtml

Institute for Security Studies.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2010/03/137831.htm

http://www.usip.org/publications/the­current­situation­in­nigeria

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