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7/30/2019 Nigeria's Gas and Gas-liquid Reserves
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RIVERS STATE UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY NKPOLU, OROWORUKWO
P.M.B. 5080, PORT HARCOURT
TERM PAPER
TOPIC:
NIGERIAS NATURAL GAS AND GAS-LIQUID RESERVES
PRESENTED BY:
(GROUP 1)
NAMES:
OHAZURUIKE LOTANNA VITUS DE. 2007/1049
EZERIE ADINDU WILLIAMS DE.2005/0713
OGBU KINGSLEY DE. 2007/1047
OKPARA NELLY CHINASOM DE. 2007/1051
GBERESUU CHRISTIAN DE. 2006/2810
ALBERT-BRIGGS FITZALLEN DE. 2007/1012
DEPARTMENT: PETROLEUM ENGINEERING
COURSE TITLE: NATURAL GAS PROCESSING
COURSE CODE: PTE 542
COURSE LECTURER: ENGR. FIDELIS WOPARA
MARCH, 2013
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ABSTRACT
A mention of the name Nigeria brings to mind, in terms of reserves, a major
quality oil producer. What few do not know is that the country is just as
much, or perhaps more of a gas than oil province. If oil has played a key role
in developing the countrys economy, gas is yet to and may even make a
much greater impact on the positive growth of the nations economy. With
an estimated 180 Tcf (30 MMboepd) proven natural gas reserves as of the
end of 2011, the country stands taller than all its African peers and is
positioned at the ninth largest natural gas reserve holder in the world. This
paper is designed to review the nations Natural gas reserves; how it has
grown over time, its utilization and importance to the economy. It shall also
employ projected production amidst exploration efforts, if any, to forecast
the rate of decline/increase of these reserves up to a foreseeable future.
Statistics are presented at every point to portray clearly and distinctively the
nature of these reserves.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Contents Pages
1. Abbreviations and Acronyms 3
2. Introduction 4
3. Current Reserves 7
4. Depletion of Gas Reserves 11
4.1.Growth of Reserves 11
4.2.Gas Reserves Decline 12
4.2.1. Gas Flaring 15
4.2.2. Domestic Gas Market 17
4.2.3. Export-Oriented Project 19
5. Conclusions and Recommendations 21
6. References 22
7. Appendix 24
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1.0 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
WB NSGMP World Bank Nigeria Strategic Gas Master Plan
US EIA United State Energy Information Administration
IOCs International Oil Companies
ALSCON Aluminium Smelter company of Nigeria
UNDP United National Development Programme
NLNG Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas
EGTL Escravos Gas To Liquids
BOE Barrels Of Oil Equivalent
MMCF Million Cubic Feet
Tcf Trillion Cubic Feet
Bcf Billion Cubic Feet
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2.0 INTRODUCTION
Nigeria and its natural gas
It is a publicly held notion that Nigeria is richly blessed with abundant
resources, but very few consider its Natural gas reserve potential when
making this statement. The focus is and has always been on its oil, with
majority of its natural gas discoveries being mishapsin the search for oil. In
spite of the fact that there has never been a single exploratory effort designed
solely to discover gas, the country has an estimated 180Tcf proven gas
reserves, enough reserves which based on its productionto-reserves ratio is
expected to last for 109 years (Ukpohor, 2009). Despite holding a top 10
position for proven natural gas reserves, Nigeria produced just 1Tcf of
natural gas in 2011 and ranked as the worlds 25 th largest natural gas
producer (US EIA, 2012).
Figure 1: Top 10 Proven Gas Reserve Holders, end 20115
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Failure to harness its gas resources has had its share of contribution to the
nations sluggish economic growth. This is particularly true in the power
sector where unreliable or nonexistent gas supplies have contributed to a
major ongoing crisis in power deliveries, crippling the economy for years,
and seriously inhibiting new investment (WB NSGMP, 2004). A number of
issues have plagued its efforts to harness these resources, the most profound
of which are the instability issues of the Niger Delta, the nations natural
resources base. For example, the US EIA 2012 Report on Nigeria stated that
dry natural gas production grew for most of the last decade until Shell
declared a force majeure on gas supplies to the Soku gas gathering and
condensate plant in November 2008. Shell shut down the plant for repair
damages to a pipeline connected to the Soku plant that was sabotaged by
local groups siphoning condensate. This is only one of similar numerous
incidents of oil theft plaguing production in the region.
Other issues hindering its efficient reserves growth and utilization have all
been found to revolve around the nations government and its regulation of
the industry. This, we believe is the sole reason why this nation still flares
majority of its produced gas in spite of the gas flaring deadline of 2008
given by the government. The government has also failed in its obligation to
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create the market necessary to encourage exploratory efforts in this sector.
This is evident in the lack of sole exploratory efforts designed to discover
gas. Also hampering the exploratory efforts are the instability involved with
the governments proposed Petroleum Industry Bill, a reason for which
international oil companies have deliberately delayed exploration and
development of certain prospects.
Also paramount is the rather slow domestic growth and utilization of its gas
resources. Some experts believe that the countrys gas reserves could be as
high as 600Tcf, which is three times more than the current conventional
estimate of 187Tcf. This is enough to last as long as 500 years, fuelling our
industries, homes, and international export, if efficiently harnessed.
Nonetheless, amidst all these setbacks, the nation does have a bright future if
its current drive and proposed gas utilization projects are seen to the end. Its
commendable increase in gas related projects, most notably the NLNG and
EGTL facilities, are giant strides in the direction of economic growth. It is
hoped that a continuous stream of similar well-conceived projects and
associated domestic power development projects, would bring the nation to
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a much anticipated top economic spot in line with its vision statement for the
year 2020.
3.0 CURRENT RESERVES
Nigeria is endowed with abundant natural resources, which in energy terms,
is in excess of the nations proven crude oil reserve. However, the gas was
discovered whilst exploring for crude oil, as there is virtually no exploration
for gas in Nigeria. Therefore, high oil production implies that additional high
volumes of associated gas will be produced (Ojide et al, 2012). This gas
reserves is split appropriately on a 50/50 ratio between AG and NAG. Most
of the proven gas reserves are found as AG in the Niger Delta basin while
the majority of the NAG has been discovered in the offshore blocks
(Economides et al, 2004).
It is estimated that 90% of Hydrocarbon reservoirs in Nigeria contain
potential commercial volume gas-cap (Economides et al, 2004). If properly
harassed, this could bring the nation an unprecedented economic growth.
The WB NSGMP 2004 stipulates that the Niger Delta Basin has a proven
plus probable oil and condensate reserves found to date of 55 billion barrels.
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This compares to gas reserves found to date of 32 billion BOE (194 Tcf)
distributed among the 707 existing fields and discoveries in the basin (WB
NSGMP, 2004). Currently, the US EIA 2012 report on Nigeria put this
figure at 30MMM BOE (180Tcf). More important however, are the
remaining and yet-to-find gas reserves. The first category is estimated to
hold 158 Tcf of gas reserves with 142 Tcf estimated to be in the second (WB
NSGMP, 2004). The YTF estimate is somewhat conservative, considering
only plays or producing zones currently known.
As previously stated, the reserve would be designated as either AG or NAG.
Traditionally, most oil companies do not like to find gas together with their
oil field associated gas (AG). Rather, they prefer to find gas without it
being mixed up with oil- Non Associated Gas (NAG) (Ojide et al, 2012).
The OPEC quota of 1.704MMBPD production for Nigeria imposes a limit to
the AG production. Consequently, producing companies have to device
means of disposing it in order to profit from the oil, the lucrative driver. The
figure below shows the quantity of gas resources available to Nigeria and the
split between NAG and AG. It should be noted that this designation has
more to do with the way the field is or will be developed than actual oil or
gas reserves. As such, a few fields that are technically gas or gas condensate
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have been designated as AG because they are located with oil fields (WB
NSGMP, 2004).
From the figure, approximately two-thirds of the remaining AG reserves are
in production and One-third are undeveloped or developing discoveries.
However, for NAG, there are more non producing reserves than producing
reserves (WB NSGMP, 2004). This is just another indication of the absence
of the deliberate exploratory efforts for gas in Nigeria.
Figure 2: Associated and Non-Associated Gas Resources
Source: World Bank Strategic Gas master Plan 2004
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Across the Niger Delta, exploration success, at fifty percent, is above global
averages. Hence, Nigerian upstream potential is likely to remain extremely
positive, and the potential YTF resources may almost equal the remaining
discovered reserves in the basin (WB NSGMP, 2004). Based on this, the
following table was prepared.
Table 1: Yet-To-Find Hydrocarbons in Nigeria by Hydrocarbon type
and Geographic Area
Oil (Bnbbl) Gas (BCF)Associated Non Associated
Onshore
East 8522 37364 2812
West 6761 17971 2926Offshore
East 15264 29878 21636
West 8830 17284 12516Total 39737 102497 39382
4.0 DEPLETION OF GAS RESERVES
4.1 GROWTH OF RESERVES
The rate of increase in gas reserves in Nigeria is to a large extent difficult to
estimate owing to the wobbly premise and blurry future of associated
exploratory efforts required to acquire the estimate. This is evident in the
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estimate presented by various sources. As of 2000, IHS Energys database
estimated a proven gas reserve of about 150 Tcf (WB NSGMP, 2004). In
2004, a total of about 187 Tcf was estimated by the WB NSGMP. This
represents an increase of about 6.2 % per annum. According to the BP
Statistical Energy Survey, Nigeria had as at 2009, proved natural gas
reserves of 185 Tcf, representing a 0.32% decrease per annum from the 2004
estimate. At the end of 2011, OGJ put the figure at 180 Tcf, representing a
1.35% decrease per annum (US EIA, 2012). This decrease could be
attributed to the introduction of the LNG trains 4, 5 and 6 which came up in
November 2005, February 2006 and 2007 respectively, and reduced
exploratory efforts due to rumors of the proposed Petroleum Industry Bill,
amongst others.
Some barriers to the exploitation of the nations huge natural gas reserves
are:
Resources are in a remote location
The major potential market of power is in a state of stagnation
Limited infrastructure to transport the gas beyond the current
locations of Lagos and Port Harcourt
High levels of initial investment required
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Poor investment climate due to lack of a proper consistent legal, fiscal
and approval framework.
Summarily, an increase in the nations reserves base would be spurred by
favorable fiscal policies by the government. This is certain to attract
investors.
4.2 GAS RESERVES DECLINE
The nations oil & gas reserves are declining by as much as 12% per annum,
with production from onshore and shallow waters oil fields having reached
their peaks said Petroleum Minister Diezani Alison Madueke (Gbogbo-Bala,
2011). The decline is attributed to production, amidst zero gas exploration.
The gas produced is either re-injected, flared or utilized in the nations
domestic gas market or export-oriented projects. In 2000, Nigerian gas
production amounted to some 4.6Bcfd with some 55% being flared and the
balance split between re-injection, NLNG feedstock, internal fuel usage and
a small percentage marketed as LPG (WB NSGMP, 2004). The figure below
indicate the dry natural gas production and consumption in Nigeria 2000-
2011(Fig 3), the projected gas production (Fig 4) and the same projected
volume split between AG and NAG (Fig 5). What becomes immediately
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noticeable is that if the overall utilization issue of gas is not addressed now
the flaring will get worse as more AG is expected.
Figure 3: Dry Natural Gas Production and Consumption in Nigeria 2000-2011
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Figure 4: Gas Production ProjectionsSource: World Bank Strategic Gas Master Plan 2004
Figure 5: Gas Production Projections for AG and NAGSource: World Bank Strategic Gas Master Plan 2004
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4.2.1 Gas Flaring
The issue of gas flaring is one whose persistence in Nigeria is disturbing. In
2004, the Nigerian Government contracted the World Bank to design a
strategic gas plan for the nation. This was due to seven (7) project proposals
presented to it by IOCs in line with a well publicized stipulated deadline for
gas flaring, 2008. Five years past the deadline and flaring still persists. IOCs
like SPDC still flare a greater percentage of produced AG when their nation
UK, has a zero flaring policy. The WBNSGP states that Nigerian flares 2.5
BCFD resulting to an annual revenue loss of US$2.5 billion, amounting to
US$50 billion over 20 years. This figure is enough to settle the nations
foreign debts of about 31 billion US Dollars.
The persistence of the IOCs to flare gas has further bolstered the question,
is the Nigeria Oil Industry controlled by the FG on by the IOCs? Nigerian
government enacted a law Associated Gas Reinjection Act in 1979 which
allowed some conditions for specific exemption of the payment of a fee of
US $0.003 per MMCF with effect from 1984 which increased to US $0.07
per MMCF in 1988 and in January 2008 to US$3.5 per MCF of gas flared
(Ojide et al, 2012). Still, approximately 75% (by 1998), 63% (by 2000) and
24.30% (by 2010) of the total gas output were flared (Ojide et al, 2012). It is
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reported that Nigeria flares enough gas to double the power produced in sub-
saharan Africa excluding South Africa (Ojide et al, 2012).
However, noteworthy is the decline in flaring over the years even though the
zero flaring deadline of 2008 is long gone. This decline could be attributed
to improved gas distribution networks across the nation and the
commissioning of more gas utilization projects.
Figure 5: Top 5 Gas Flaring Countries 2010
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4.2.2 Domestic Gas Market
The Nigeria Gas Company (NGC), a subsidiary of NNPC is in charge of
national gas supplies for power generation, either as source of fuel or as
feedstock to cement and fertilizer plants, glass, food and beverages,
aluminum smelting, petrochemical industries, among others. The most
prominent and promising member of this family is the power industry. The
figures below indicate projections of consumption for some of these
sections.
Figure 6: Gas Consumption Projections for Future Gas Power Plants
Source: World Bank Strategic Gas Master Plan 2004
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Figure 7: ALSCON Gas Consumption
Source: World Bank Strategic Gas Master Plan 2004
Figure 8: Power Demand Projection for Nigeria
Source: World Bank Strategic Gas Master Plan 200419
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Other proposed projects are the GTL projects
- Chevron producing Nigeria (CPN) 35000 bpd GTL Plant at
Escravos (Consuming 0.35 BCfd)
- ExxonMobil (MPN) 87,000bpd GTL Plant on Bonny Island
(Consuming 0.82Bcfd)
4.2.3 Export Oriented Projects
For the International market, NNPC and its Joint Venture partners are
currently embarking on several gas utilization projects, some of which are
given in the table below:
Table 2 Export-oriented projects in Nigeria
Project Location Product Year Active Gas/Condensate
consumptionNLNG (6trains) Bonny LNG, LPG,
Condensate
1999 3.5Bcfd
Brass (2 trains) LNG, LPG,
NGL
2011
Ok LNG (4 trains) Olokola LNG, LPG 2012/2013 4.5MMcfd
Oso NGL Oso NGL 1998 110,000bpd
West Africa Gas
Pipeline
Nigeria, Togo,
Benin and
Ghana
Gas 2011 0.17Bcf/d
Trans-Sahara Gas
Pipeline
Nigeria-
Algeria
Gas - 2Bcf/d
Escravos Gas project LPG 2006
Belema Gas Injection 80MMcf/d
Odigbo Node Gas
Project (Supply
113MMMcf/d
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ALSCON)
Others are Ekpe Gas compression projects, Oso 2Y2 Project, Odidi AGG
Project Cawthorne Channel Gas Injection Project.
5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Nigerias previous foremost customer, US, has decreased their import of
Nigerias LNG to less than 5%. Japan has tripled her demand owing to the
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Fukushima incident. It is only a matter of time before these problems are
resolved, or other customers decrease their demand in search of more
economic energy sources. As such, Nigeria, as a nation, needs to take
advantage of the present economic condition fast. Just because we have
enough gas reserves to last for 109 years does not necessarily mean we sit
back, fold our arms and watch the clock tick.
Also, the domestic gas utilization projects should be pursued aggressively.
Many do not realize that power generation is the pillar of tremendous
economic growth. These projects, alongside their export-oriented projects
are expected to help put an end to gas flaring, our wealth in flames.
There exists a strategic Gas Plan for this country. The authors have reviewed
and strongly recommend that it be re-adopted as a tool/guideline to
improving the nations exploitation of its natural gas reserves.
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7.0 APPENDIX
Nigeria Reserves and Production Summary
Table 5.1 Nigeria Reserves
(Source World Bank Strategic Gas Master plan For Nigeria 2004)
24
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