Nightly Business Report - Monday March 18 2013.pdf

7/29/2019 Nightly Business Report - Monday March 18 2013.pdf

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ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and

Susie Gharib.

SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Markets around the

world sell off as investors worry whether a bank bailout plan for Cyprus

means for trouble in Europe`s financial system. We`ll get answers from

PIMCO`s Mohamed El-Erian.


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TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Nobel laureate Paul

Krugman diagnoses American`s biggest economic challenges.

GHARIB: And builders say demand for homes is up, but so are costs and

buildable land is scarce. Why home builders aren`t as confident as they

have been.

We have that and more starting right now.

Good evening, everyone.

Tyler, you know, it`s just amazing how one small country in the

Mediterranean can create such big problems for the rest of the world.

MATHISEN: This maybe a tiny black swan, but it can still bite. Stock

markets around the world wobbled today in response to a plan floated over

the weekend to bailout the troubled banks of Cyprus. Part of the proposal

now being reworked, would take money from the depositors to pay for the

rescue.

Cyprus, a tiny eurozone island nation, has an economy the size of

Vermont but a banking sector crippled by the Greek financial crisis with

assets eight times as great as the country s GDP. And therein lies the

rub.


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The reemergence of Europe`s financial woes comes as no surprise to

many analysts. Listen to what former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told NBR

Friday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALAN GREENSPAN, FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE:Europe has

been hanging over the American markets now for quite a while. And the

removal of that risk, at least temporarily, and I think it is only

temporary, has enabled the underlying forces of the market to begin to come

into vision.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATHISEN: And today, the clearer vision that Greenspan referred to

was clouded the Cyprus.

Sue Herera has our report on why Cyprus matters.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SUE HERERA, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):

Cyprus is a smaller island with an even smaller economy. But right now,

the world`s biggest markets are closely watching what happens in the tiny

Mediterranean nation.


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ANDREW BUSCH, THE BUSCH UPDATE AUTHOR: It`s a tiny nation and it`s a

tiny banking system to some extent. The reason we care about it isn`t, of

course, Cyprus -- just like it wasn`t Greece. It`s what it means for the

bigger nations in Europe if they follow and go down the same path.

HERERA: Banking is a huge part of Cyprus` economy. And it`s a mess.

If it fails the country will probably fail, too, and the European Union

will not let the country fail.

But here`s the rub: the biggest customers of banks in Cyprus are

wealth Russians.

BUSCH: German taxpayers don`t want to bail out the depositors in

Cyprus because they are mainly Russians. And I think that`s really what

the issue is.

HERERA: So European finance ministers say they will give Cyprus 10

billion euros, but the country is on the hook for the other 7 billion euros

its banks need. And they don t have it.

So, they`re going to charge bank depositors a fee. Even small

investors who thought their savings were insured will take a hit.

And prospect of any government taking money from the private savings


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of its citizens has investors everywhere nervous.

MICHALIS SARRIS, CYPRUS FINANCE MINISTER: This was a necessary, but

single shot at the problem. And that from now one they can be very

confident that nothing will happen to their savings.

HERERA (on camera): The government says that this is just a one-time

hit and depositors are going be compensated with bank shares. But with the

stock market down some 60 percent, those shares are essentially worthless.

(voice-over): The blanks are closed now and they won t open again

until after parliament votes on the bailout measure. But all across

Cyprus, people are waiting in lines at ATMs to withdraw money from their

accounts. And governments all over Europe worried that their citizens

might also take their savings out of local banks and cause a run on the

banks of Europe. A banking panic could plunge the world economy into

recession.

And that`s why even the most seasoned Wall Street veterans are closely

watching what happens on this tiny island in the Mediterranean.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Sue Herrera.

(END VIDEOTAPE)


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GHARIB: So what does the crisis in Cyprus mean for the U.S. economy,

the markets and American investors?

For some answers, we turn to Mohamed El-Erian. He`s the CEO of PIMCO,

the world`s largest bond fund. When I talked with him a short while ago, I

asked him if the situation in Cypress is unique, isolated problem, or is it

a serious issue for the U.S.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, PIMCO CEO & CO-CIO: It is mainly unique to Europe

and Cyprus in the sense that Cyprus has a very large bank system and

there`s no other way they can raise money.

The reason why it`s relevant to us, Susie, is because it`s disrupting

a certain conventional wisdom which is that deposits are sacred. Ensured

deposits are sacred. And what the Europeans decided this weekend is that

that`s no longer the case.

GHARIB: Absolutely, Mohamed. I mean, that`s what a lot of people

here were thinking about. It raised this question as whether your bank

deposits, can you trust bank insurance, even though this problem was all

the way in Cyprus? What can you tell people at home tonight?

EL-ERIAN: I would say there s no fear in the case of the United


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States. There`s no fear that the FDIC insurance is not going to apply. I

think that what`s happening in Cyprus is very special to Cyprus. However,

we may feel the spillover in different way.

What`s going to happen now is that unless they fix the blunder that

they call them, the mistakes -- these are the words that are being used

right now within Europe -- unless they fix that, there`s a chance there

will be outflow deposits in Cyprus when the banks reopen on Thursday.

GHARIB: So, what impact does that have on the U.S.? What impact does

all of this stuff that`s going on in Europe and in Cyprus have on the U.S.

economic recovery? Can it derail it?

EL-ERIAN: I don`t think it derails it. I think it`s an initial

headwind. So, Europe is after all the biggest economic zone. So the

thicker Europe gets, the more headwinds we get.

Now, the good news, and this is really important for us is that we

have, internally, some indigenous healing. We are getting better, the

economy. And secondly, the Federal Reserve is very committed right now to

buying time for our politicians to get their act together.

So, I think that this is a headwind, but I do not see some of it would

derail our recovery.


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GHARIB: What about the global economy? What about the global

financial system? What risk is there to that because of this Cyprus

situation?

This is a big worry for so many people.

EL-ERIAN: So, the risk scenario -- and I should stress it`s a risk

scenario, not a baseline -- is that the Cypriots are so upset that you get

both political disorder and social unrest, and that increases the chance of

Cyprus exiting the euro zone. If they exit the euro zone, you reopen all

these questions (ph) that were put aside and dry by the very aggressive

intervention of the European central banks.

So, that is the risk, that unless they find a solution and unless they

exempt the small savers from this levy, that you may get social disorder

and political disorder.

GHARIB: Let`s bring it here to the U.S. and U.S. stock market. We`ve

had a nice market rally. Could this situation disrupt the market rally

here? And for American investors, is this a time, an opportunity to get

in, or is there more turmoil ahead? What do you think?

EL-ERIAN: Well, so far, we`ve shrugged off this element for three

reasons. One is the Europeans have realized that they`ve made a mistake

and are trying to find a way out. It`s not going to be easy but they`re


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trying.

Second is the view that our market will become more attractive because

Europe once again has a question mark.

And, third, let`s not forget wheat going well here. So, the reason

why we, in the United States, have shrugged off the news today is because

of these things.

So, I would say that. But do not -- do not forget that we are in

over-board situation, so we have come a very long way, will be on the

fundamentals. So I wouldn`t say this is a buying opportunity. I`d say

this is a reminder that we are subject to the political shocks from

outside.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO.

Well, the Cyprus news and worries about a broader spill throughout

Europe sent world markets down sharply. And U.S. stocks were not immune,

especially in early trading. But as Mr. El-Erian just pointed, they

recouped nearly half of their losses by the end of today`s session.

Being down as much as 110 points, the Dow finished the day 62 points


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lower, closing at 14,452. NASDAQ also under pressure, down 11 points. The

S&P down 8, now 13 points shy of its all-time closing high.

GHARIB: Looking at the U.S. economy -- home builder confidence fell

more than expected and for the third straight month. The National

Association of Homebuilders said its home confidence index fell two points

to 44. The rating below 50 suggests negative sentiment about the housing

market.

Builders say they are concerned about meeting increased demand for new

homes because of bottlenecks in the system, not enough workers and building

supplies.

With us now to talk about the outlook, Brian Wesbury. He`s chief

economist of First Trust (NYSE:FFA) Advisers.

So, Brian, is this a case of an abundance of issue? Is that what

builders are telling us?

BRIAN WESBURY, FIRST TRUST ADVISORS CHIEF ECONOMIST: Yes. Youknow,

excuse me, Susie, but, you know, when -- after a surgery, you know, we --

it takes some time before everything starts to work right again. And I

think that`s kind of what housing is going through.

We have massive layouts. We literally shut down the entire industry -


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- I mean, almost. And so, getting it started up again, I think builders

are surprised by the strength of sales. And what`s happening now is that

there are bottlenecks appearing and there`s a shortage of homes on the

market.

And this is creating, kind of good difficulties, if you will, for

builders and for the housing market. It`s a shortage of homes on the

market in many, many areas of the economy.

MATHISEN: So, Brian, builders are a little less confident than they

were a month before but maybe for technical reasons.

WESBURY: Right.

MATHISEN: Should homeowners be, or people who are out on the market

today be less confident about buying a house or do you see a pretty good

year ahead?

WESBURY: Oh, I see a great year ahead. Builders will catch up

eventually.

You know, last year, I think -- I think housing prices were up almost

30 percent. That`s a huge gain and they`re just having a hard time

catching up. We had lots of immigrant workers, many of them immigrated

back out of the United States, or they`ve moved to different areas of the


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economy. And, so, what`s happens here, we just have -- we just have a

little problem restarting.

You know, one of the other areas that we can see this happening in is

lumber. Lumber prices now, the price of lumber is back up to where it was

in 2005, at the height of the boom. And we`re building about a third of

the houses that we were building then. The reason lumber prices are up so

much is that we`re not producing as much lumber and yet demand is taking

off.

GHARIB: Let me ask you this, Brian. The other thing that`s going up

are the rates on mortgages. We`ve seen on 30-year --

WESBURY: Yes.

GHARIB: -- it`s up to like 3.6 plus percent. You know, not a lot

still.

WESBURY: Right.

GHARIB: But as mortgage rates go up, what is that going to do to the

housing recovery? Could it stall it out?

WESBURY: You know, yes, it could, Susie, if rates go up significantly

more. But we`ve had -- we had a boom in housing back in the early 2000s,


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back in the late 1990s, with mortgage rates of 6 percent or 7 percent or 8

percent. And, you know, as long as the economy is doing well, as long as

wages are rising -- and I know they`re not surging today -- as long as

we`re adding jobs, I don`t believe interest rates anywhere near current

levels are going to put a dent in the housing market.

GHARIB: Hey, a nice upbeat way to end our conversation. Thanks a

lot.

WESBURY: Yes.

GHARIB: Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust (NYSE:FFA)

Advisers.

WESBURY: Thanks, Susie. Thanks, Tyler.

GHARIB: And we want to get a jump on the spring selling season. So,

for the rest of this week we`ll be taking an in-depth look at housing.

Diana Olick kicks things off at one of the hardest hit, the Miami

condo market, where things are starting to boom again.

MATHISEN: And coming up, we`re going to focus on Washington and the

stumbling blocks in the deal to curtail the so-called sequester, those

government spending cuts.


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But, first, the look at how the overseas markets fared today.

(MUSIC)

GHARIB: On Wall Street today, more red than green in the stock market

and some losses in the oil patch as well. And that`s where we begin our

"Market Focus" tonight.

Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), the oil field services supplier, warned

investors that fewer rigs were going back online than expected. The

company`s CEO said he expects negative pricing pressure in several areas.

Looking at the stocks, Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) down almost 4 percent.

Other drillers almost got hit. Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP) tumbling 5.5

percent. Nabors and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) down as well.

Leading the S&P gainers today: JCPenney. The retailer got a positive

report from analyst Brian Nagel at Oppenheimer because of the new Joe Fresh

shop within the store concept. But he did say that Penney still needs to

work through its problems.

Investors on the positives, pushing JCPenney up more than 6 percent,

to $16.44.


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MATHISEN: And AstraZeneca cutting 1,200 jobs at its Wilmington,

Delaware, site, as it starts a research and development reorganization.

The cuts come weeks after the company reported a big drop in revenue for

2012, and forecast continuing difficulties with competition from generic

drugs.

Shares of AstraZeneca traded in New York were down slightly on the

day, at $46.18.

And after six year on the job, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) CEO John

Riccitiello offered his resignation. During his tenure, the stock dropped

more than 60 percent. Riccitiello said in a memo that revenue and earnings

for the current quarter would be at the low end of its earlier guidance and

he was accountable for it. Shares were down at the close and then rose

after hours.

GHARIB: Moving now from Wall Street to Washington. This week,

lawmakers are working toward a measure that will keep the government up and

running past next Wednesday. That`s when current funding runs out.

But the real budget battle over long-term spending cuts continues.

John Harwood has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)


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JOHN HARWOOD, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):

Republicans and Democrats in Washington are still fighting over taxes and

spending but they`ve agreed to keep the fight under control. The House has

already passed a bill to keep the government running past the end of this

month. Now, the Senate is preparing to do the same thing and there, the

two parties aren`t far apart on the details.

SEN. HARRY REID (D-NV), MAJORITY LEADER: We`ve condensed the number

of amendments being talked about seriously. I commend them and their staff

through all of their efforts. I`ve spoken to both of them this morning.

They have yet, though, reached an agreement. I think we are getting close.

HARWOOD: But the gap remains huge for a long-term plan for bringing

government spending and revenue inline.

Democrats say they`re willing to reduce outlays for the massive Social

Security and Medicare entitlement programs, but only if Republicans agree

to additional tax hikes.

And just yesterday, Speaker John Boehner said the House`s answer to

that is no.

REP. JOHN BOEHNER (R-OH), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: The president got his

tax hikes on January 1st. The talk about raising revenue is over. It`s


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time to deal with the spending problem.

HARWOOD (on camera): Still, the two chambers at least have a way of

talking about their differences, not with President Obama but on each

other. Work on the contrasting House and Senate plans continue this week.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m John Harwood on Capitol Hill.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATHISEN: Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has been

outspoken about what he thinks policymakers should do about the federal

debt and deficit. I asked when we spoke recently, but I began by getting

him to rate the U.S. economy on a scale of one to 10, with 10 being very

strong.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PAUL KRUGMAN, NOBEL PRIZE-WINNING ECONOMIST: I think it`s trying to

be a six but the government -- the sequester and, generally, the government

doing the wrong thing might be pulling it back to a four. But we`re

definitely off the bottom and economy is trying to recover.

MATHISEN: Are you concerned? I spoke with former Fed Chairman Alan

Greenspan who said that with respect to the sequester, that rising asset


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prices both in stocks and housing may in part offset the otherwise

deleterious effects of the federal spending cuts. Are you in that camp at

all?

KRUGMAN: Not especially. I mean, there`s a little bit coming from

stocks but the main thing is housing is coming back because we`ve built

very few houses for a long time. Household debt has been coming down

relative to income. So, balance sheets are in better shape.

So, we have in a way, we`ve been down so long that there`s no place to

go but up. And so, the private sector is starting to recover.

MATHISEN: If the economy is, as you seem to characterize it,

lukewarm, but growing, why are stock prices as high as they are today? And

do you think they can move up from these levels?

KRUGMAN: Well, there`s two things, although the economy is only

lukewarm, profits have done very, very well. We`ve had, for whatever

reason, we`ve had a major shift of income away from labor to capital. So,

profits are very high.

And the other thing is interest rates are still very low, so money has

to go some place and it bids up symptom prices.

I don`t think -- I don`t think stock prices are obviously


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unreasonable. I don`t know, you know, whether it`s exactly right or not.

But it doesn`t look like a crazy number right now.

MATHISEN: As you look -- we`ve finished obviously two and a half

months of the year, as you look into the future for the rest of the year,

how do you think the U.S. economy is going to perform? And similarly for

stocks, how do you think they`ll do?

KRUGMAN: I have no idea whatsoever on stocks. That`s not my game.

I think the U.S. economy, as I said, it`s trying to grow. But a lot

depends on what is going happen in Washington. Does the sequester

continue? Do we have, you know, crazy -- do we another complication over

the debt ceiling?

So, at this point, it is dysfunctional politics getting in the way of

an economy that is gradually getting its act together.

MATHISEN: Does the economy in terms of federal finances need what`s

been characterized as a grand bargain? And do you think it`s possible?

I was listening to a political analyst earlier this week who said, you

know, if a grand bargain means somebody has to -- each side has to sign on

to raising taxes and cutting entitlements, he knew of no politician who

would buy that bargain.


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KRUGMAN: Well, yes, I don`t think it`s likely, but I wouldn`t put it

this way. I would have said the division between the parties is just too

large. That the -- that we`ve -- Republicans basically have not

acknowledged that they lost the election, and that`s the problem.

But, look, it is not urgent. The Congressional Budget Office debt

projections show pretty much stable U.S. indebtedness for the next 10

years. They do not show anything that looks like a crisis.

So, we are -- you know, we have long, long run problems but not

anything that has to be dealt with this year or five years from now or even

seven years from now.

MATHISEN: Are you worried about the level of consumer debt?

Consumers have pared their debt, but it`s still much, much higher than it

was a decade, decade and a half ago?

KRUGMAN: Yes. Well, but consumers are continuing to pare it back

some. I mean, the -- I think that`s one of the reasons we`ve had such a

slow recovery. But I think it is -- it`s on the right trajectory.

MATHISEN: If you look at the biggest challenges that you foresee

facing the U.S. economy over, let`s say, the next decade -- give me three

that come top of mind.


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KRUGMAN: Well, first of all, we`re part of a year. We`re not alone.

Europe is really a mess. I do worry about various kinds of blowback from

the European situation. So, that`s an economic political problem.

I worry about our own politics. We have, you know, it s one thing. I

don`t think we need a grand bargain but we need a functioning government.

I`m not sure we have that.

And, finally, I think the environmental issues, we`ve been ignoring

them, but they`re going to get more and more visible. And we really should

have been panicking about them long before now and I think by the time 10

years are up, we`re really -- it will become undeniable that we really,

really should be scared and acting on environmental issue.

MATHISEN: Professor Krugman, thank you very much for joining us

tonight.

KRUGMAN: Thank you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GHARIB: You can always count on Krugman for a fresh perspective on

the world economy.


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Well, let`s take a look now at treasuries, currencies and commodities

and how they did today.

(MUSIC)

MATHISEN: One upcoming movie that hopes to join that same list of box

office winners someday is the film based on the canceled TV series

"Veronica Mars". And the funding needed to produce the movie is being

raised in the most unusual way.

Julia Boorstin takes a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JULIA BOORSTIN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-

over):

"Veronica Mars" had a cult following before the show was canceled in 2007.

Now die hard fans are rushing to spend money to turn the TV show into a

movie.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What are we going to do with this old "Veronica

Mars" movie, huh?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don`t know. You have million dollars laying

around?


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BOORSTIN: The show`s producer Rob Thomas and actress Kristen Bell are

leveraging the power of crowd funding, raising more than $3.6 million from

over 55,000 backers, setting a new record for Kickstarter, a 4-year-old

platform that helps people fund creative projects. It`s raised over half a

billion dollars for more than 3 million people.

MICHAEL WOLF, CHIEF ANALYST NEXTMARKET INSIGHTS: You can say toyour

friends that you`ve actually given money to help get this movie on the big

screen. Or you`ve given money to help get this concern or record off the

ground. And for a true fan, that`s a huge thing to be able to do.

BOORSTIN: In less than 24 hour, Thomas and Bell reached their goal of

$2 million, demonstrating the demand Warner Brothers wanted to see before

it would agree to make the film. They generated that massive demand from

passionate fans, not by offering a return on investment but with a variety

of rewards, everything from $10 for a copy of the script, to $10,000 for a

speaking role in the film.

Three people sent $1,000 for tickets to a premiere.

(on camera): This is a big win not just for fans but also for Warner

Brothers, proving the power of a devoted fan base. It could be a turning

point for how Hollywood thinks about financing and pricing a film.

(voice-over): This Kickstarter campaign demonstrates people will pay


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more than a $10 movie ticket to see a film and it also gauges audience

interest.

WOLF: A movie studio can combine with a filmmaker and say, hey, we

don`t know if there`s an audience for this movie. Let`s test that market.

Let`s test that hypothesis.

Now all of the studios are watching to see how "Veronica Mars"

performs. It`s expected to start shooting this summer and hit theaters

next year.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Julia Boorstin in Los Angeles.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GHARIB: Well, just like Hollywood studios, colleges have become

pretty good at making money in different ways. And with the NCAA men`s

basketball tournament tipping off this week, the schools involved will all

get a piece of the pie.

But one school is catching in on its basketball program at a far

greater rate than the others.

Brian Shactman tells us which university is already a big winner.


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(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRIAN SHACTMAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):

It goes by many names, March Madness, the Big Dance, or more formally known

as the NCAA`s men`s basketball tournament.

Every year, schools from around the country compete for the national

title. This year`s top overall seed is the University of Louisville, and

they also happen to be the number one in another aspect of the game, money.

PATRICK RISHE, SPORTS MARKETING CONSULTANT: Louisville is the most

profitable team in college basketball.

SHACTMAN (on camera): From basketball alone, Louisville takes in more

than $40 million, with huge margins profiting anywhere from $24 million to

$28 million.

RISHE: That`s largely due to the new KFC Yum Center that`s a few

years old. They also get $20 million in donations from alumni, which is

larger than most school`s overall athletic budgets in basketball.

SHACTMAN: In the profit game, the Cardinals beat out some legendary

programs like Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky and Indiana.

They make the bulk of profits from the fund-raising, but the team also


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draws 20,000 fans a game, at a premium that is more NBA-like than NCAA.

RISHE: The average ticket price for University of Louisville

basketball is $35, which doesn`t seem that expensive. But again, it`s more

expensive than average ticket price for about seven NBA teams.

SHACTMAN: Also like pro-basketball and unlike most NCAA programs,

they sell beer and concession at another half a million to the bottom line.

For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Brian Shactman.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GHARIB: And coming up tomorrow, more information on housing when we

get February housing starts.

And the Federal Reserve meets for a two-day policy meeting on

interests rates.

And, Tyler, I`m going to be interviewing the CEO of Coca-Cola

(NYSE:KO) and talking to him about how his business is doing and how are

things going overseas for him.

MATHISEN: It would be very interesting to see what he says about

Europe, not specifically Cyprus, which might be one tenth of one tenth of 1


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percent of his business. But Europe overall is a pretty significant part

of Coca-Cola`s business.

That`s it for NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT. I`m Tyler Mathisen. Thanks so

much for watching.

GHARIB: And I`m Susie Gharib, have a great evening, everyone.

And Tyler and I will see you right back here tomorrow night.

END

Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post

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Transcriptions, LLC. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of

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the views of Nightly Business Report, or CNBC, Inc. Information presented

on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as

investment advice. (c) 2013 CNBC, Inc.


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Nightly Business Report - Monday March 18 2013.pdf