Nivesh Post Budget Review _2013-14

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  • 7/27/2019 Nivesh Post Budget Review _2013-14

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    IndiaNiveshSecurities

    Private

    Limited

    email:[email protected] | Website:www.indianivesh.in

    IndiaNiveshResearch February2013

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    MACROVIEWNoIm etustoeconom rovided ano ortunit lost

    FY14 budget turned into a damp squib with no measures announced that can provide impetus to economy.

    In our view budget was probably made with one eye on general elections in near term & the other on

    somehow avoid any potential downgrade from rating agencies due to slipping of fiscal deficit target. With

    sleight of hand & smart window dressing the fiscal deficit number is shown as better than street estimates.

    However, like last year, the credibility of these numbers will come under scanner.

    Credibility an issue:

    .

    Following points corroborate this fact:

    a) Revenues have been inflated with highly optimistic assumption on growth in GDP at 13.8% (nominal

    terms) in FY14. This number does not tally with any of the estimates provided till date including those

    rom governmen agenc es. ven e mos op m s c es ma e rom conom c urvey sugges s ea

    terms GDP growth of 6.1 to 6.5% & inflation of ~6% in next year. Hence we do not understand how will

    this growth come? Also no concrete measures have been announced for reviving capex/investment

    cycle.

    b) Based on strong growth in GDP, the government expects tax revenue to grow @18% over FY13. At the

    time when most of the corporate are struggling to sustain, services sector under pressure, such a high

    growth in tax revenue seems to be challenging.

    c) The FM has assumed Rs 400bn from disinvestment & ~140bn from sales of residual stake of

    government in companies like SUTTI, Balco etc. Telecom sector by way of spectrum fee/one timecharge & other levies is likely to contribute another Rs 400bn. Sale from assets is marred with many

    IndiaNiveshResearch February28,2013|2PostBudgetReview201314

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    (contd)

    legal complications as many government departments are involved. Also the anomaly is Balco

    promoters themselves were willing to offer Rs 170bn for Balco/HZL which the government has not

    done anything about but they want to include that in FY14 calculations. As regards revenue from

    Telecom sector, in FY13, we have seen how auctions have failed miserably & contributed only Rs 10bn

    v/s estimated Rs 200bn. Thus there is a clear case of being over optimistic on non tax revenue.

    d) On the expenses side, as in the last year, there is a tendency to depress expenditure on subsidies.

    While the subsidy on account of food has been increased from RE FY13 Rs 850bn to Rs 900bn for

    FY14BE, amounts on fertilizer has been maintained at same level of FY13 & that of OIL subsidy has

    been actually estimated to be lower from Rs ~970bn to Rs 650bn. This can happen only in 2 cases

    either the fuel prices at retail level are increased so substantially that there is small subsidyrequirement or International crude prices come down significantly. Going by global economic situation

    we do not expect any material drop in oil prices. In election year FY14, to expect substantial increase

    in retail level fuel prices also does not seem to be prudent. Thus we expect a miss on subsidy bill in

    FY14 too. It can only be met by way of deferring some subsidy payments to next year.

    Populist measures with an eye on elections

    1. Increase target for agriculture credit from Rs 5750bn to 7000bn (an increase of ~22%). This is a means

    of providing incentive to rural population in penultimate year of election by the incumbent

    government.

    2. Outlay on rural development & social schemes has been increased by 46% over FY13RE. Allocations to

    all social schemes have been significantly increased.

    IndiaNiveshResearch February28,2013|3PostBudgetReview201314

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    (contd)

    3. Allocation of Rs 90bn made for Food Security Bill (this is when even the bill is not yet out, FM himself

    does not know what is there in the bill).

    4. Refinance from SIDBI to micro finance institutes .

    Prudent measures taken:1. Made RGESS more investor friendly & increased threshold limit for eligibility for this scheme.

    . rov e ex ra ax ene o s . mn over a ove curren s . mn on n eres or rs me ome

    loan takers for buying house worth less than Rs 2.5 mn.

    3. Enhance penetration of insurance by opening branches of LIC & encouraging other insurers to do thesame in smaller towns.

    4. Tweak STT rates favorably for equity markets, make FII investments easier in debt instruments, ETF etc.

    5. Enhance limit for raising money through tax free bonds by eligible institutions.

    1. We were expecting some path for revival of capex cycle, which according to us is most important to

    reach GDP growth target. There is no announcement on this. FM has sounded CAD is a matter of

    bigger concern than FD, but there is no announcement that will address this issue. This is the reason

    we erme s u ge as was e oppor un y.

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    (contd)

    2. Increase surcharge on high income tax payers & companies with PAT of above Rs 100mn. These kind of

    discriminatory taxes distort the concept of equitable distribution of wealth & also lead to more tax

    evasion. Although in this case since the surcharge is small amount for the ultra rich individuals, it may

    . .

    & for other in nominal tax bracket it will go up by 1.55%.

    3. Pressurizing banks to lend more towards agri side when already most of the PSB are saddled with hugeNPA burden. Also bringing Private Banks in interest subvention scheme for farm loans may put asset

    ualit of Private Banks under stress.

    4. Ambiguity regarding taxation of investors coming from tax haven areas where DTAA is applicable. New

    addition to IT act, regarding Residency Certificate alone is not sufficient, was a major disappointment

    & has potential to result in similar kind of capitulation as we witnessed last year post implementationof GAAR.

    Conclusion: Going by the reputation of FM being market friendly & pro reforms markets were expecting some directionalmoves that could revive growth. Post the series of measures announced since September 2012 hopes were raised even morethat reforms will now resurface. However, unfortunately most of these hopes have been belied thus resulting indisappointment. We believe budget will not be able to provide any support to the markets & in case of any pressure coming

    rom international li uidit reducin or dr in u our markets ma witness shar downward reaction.With budget out of the way, we expect markets will come back to basic fundamentals in a short time. Earnings growth hasto revive to bring cheer back to markets. Our stand that markets are over optimistic in the first two months & FY14 earningsdowngrades have to follow seem to be strengthening. In view of continued subdued macro picture hopes of any materialrate cuts may get deferred a little longer. We remain cautiously optimistic on overall markets & continue with stock specificapproach in line with our view given in the beginning of current calendar.

    nce s u ge was more ocuse o macro ac ors ere s no muc mpac on m cro sec or. ever e ess ensu ng pages

    contain our understanding of various provisions of budget & respective impact on specific sectors & stocks within. Most ofthe sectors are marked as neutral either due to no significant action or due to in line with expectation budget proposals.

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    AUTOMOBILES

    BUDGET IMPACT: NEGATIVE (Sector ignored by the policy makers)

    Budget 201314 disappointed automobile sector. Though this disappointment was not as much as it was last year

    but it was clearly ignored by the policy makers. Especially now when the sector is going through rough time (less

    than 5% growth in 9m FY13) it was expecting some relief in terms of export soaps, reduction in excise duty, higher

    depreciation allowance, deduction for R&D expenses, etc. Automobile sector is a job multiplier sector. Apart from

    OEMs, auto component industry, motor insurance industry and other related industries provide millions of job

    opportunities; therefore it is an important sector to focus and give incentive to flourish not only in domestic market

    u a so o e compe ve rom expor po n o v ew.

    Issue Proposal Impact

    PurchaseofbusesunderJNNURM(JawaharlalNehruNationalUrban Upto10,000busestobepurchased

    Positive forTATAMotors,AshokLeylandandEicherMotorswhich

    RenewalMission) .

    Excie dutyhikeonSUVs(vehiclelength

    exceeding4000mm&havingground

    clearanceof170mm&above)except

    thoseareusedastaxis

    Increasedfrom27%to30%

    SlightlyNegative forMaruti,TataMotorsandM&M.Inpercentage

    termtheextramoneyacustomerhastopayoutwillbe2.3%.We

    believecompanieswillpassonthistobuyers.

    Importdutyhikeoncars&bikes

    75%to100%andmotorcyclesabove

    800ccthedutyhasgoneupfrom

    60%to75%.

    Negative forTataMotors(Jaguarmodelsareimported)andM&M

    (Rexton inimported).

    Periodofconcessionavailablefor

    Periodofconcessionavailablefor

    specifiedpartofelectric/hybridPositive for M&M Reva

    specifiedpartofelectric hybrid vehiclesextendedupto31.03.2015

    Source:BudgetDocuments;IndiaNiveshResearchIndiaNiveshResearch February28,2013|6PostBudgetReview201314

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    BANKING&FINANCIALSERVICES

    BUDGET IMPACT: NEUTRAL (Lacks direction)

    Budget Developments

    Union Budget for FY13 was more of neutral to Banking Services & some what positive for Insurance & Financial services industry. Key budget

    announcements include higher credit allocation towards Agrisegment, increase in interest part of tax exemption for first time home buyers,

    banks allowed to act as insurance brokers. One positive for banking sector was announcement on recapitalization of Public Sector Banks

    (PSBs) to the extent of Rs 140 bn. Further, Insurance companies can now open branches anywhere in India without the permission of IRDA.

    Also lowerin of STT extension of Ra iv Gandhi E uit Savin s Scheme are ositives for the brokin sector.

    Issues Proposal Companies Impacted

    Capitalization Allocate Rs 140 bn for PSBs to ensure they are

    Basel III complaint

    Positive: for PSBs, probably SBI, PNB, BOI, UBI

    Increase in tax deduction

    interest component

    Add. Deduction of Rs 0.1 mn for a person taking

    home loan (up to Rs 2.5 mn) during 1.4.2013 to

    31.3.2014

    Positive: Benefit all Banks & NBFCs, esp. Housing Finance

    Companies like GIC Housing Finance & LIC Housing Finance

    Agriculture credit Increase Agricredit target to Rs 7,000 bn for Negative: for all banks (esp. PSBs); Private banks ICICI, Kotak

    FY14E; Extend interestsubvention scheme, short

    term crop loans now to private sector banks too

    would now be exposed to Agrilending and now their NPAs

    may increase

    Banksasinsurance

    brokers

    Banks are allowed to act as Insurance brokers Positive: to benefit all banks, as being insurance broker,

    other income of the banks would benefit

    IndiaNiveshResearch February28,2013|7PostBudgetReview201314

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    BANKING&FINANCIALSERVICES(contd)

    Issues Proposal Companies Impacted

    Tax Free bonds Tax free bonds amount of Rs 500 bn, will benefit

    companies which are majorly into infra finance

    Positive: for IFCs like IDFC, PFC & REC

    Commodities Transaction

    Tax (CTT)

    Introduce CTT on nonagricultural commodities Negative: for companies like MCX, FT

    Cut down the Securities

    Transaction Tax (STT)

    Reduce STT (Equity futures/ MF/ ETF redemption/

    purchase/ sale transactions to 0.01%)

    Positive: for companies like Religare, Edelweiss, IIFL

    SIDBI to refinance Micro

    Finance loans; Rs 1 bn

    allocation to India

    Microfinance Equity Fund

    Refinancing capacity of SIDBI has been increased

    to Rs 100 bn; Also, Rs 1 bn of allocation have been

    made towards India Microfinance Equity Fund

    Positive: for Microfinancing institutions like SKS

    Rajiv Gandhi Equity

    Savings Scheme (RGESS)

    extended

    RGESS gets liberalized (now first time investor can

    invest in mutual funds, also this benefit can be

    extended now to 3 years, income limit raised to Rs

    1.2 bn)

    Positive: for listed Stockbrokers such as Religare, Emkay,

    Edelweiss, IIFL, Geojit

    Source:BudgetDocuments;IndiaNiveshResearch

    Opening of branches by

    Insurance Companies

    Now Insurance companies are free to open their

    branches without IRDA permission

    Positive: for Insurance players such as Max India

    IndiaNiveshResearch February28,2013|8PostBudgetReview201314

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    CAPITALGOODS

    BUDGET IMPACT: NEUTRAL (Below expectations as no major reforms announced)Within CapGoods segment, street was looking forward to update on power sector developments and any initiatives

    which would lead to revival in capex cycle. However, there were a major disappointment, as there we no

    .

    allocation are Defense Services & Water Purification. Also, there were a few smaller announcement related to Urban

    Infra & Ship Building sectors. Higher Road & Highways spending in FY14E in our view would lead to increase indemand for Construction Equipments.

    Proposal Impact on Sector CompaniesImpacted

    42.3%increaseindefense Capitaloutlay(Heavy

    &MediumVehicles +OtherEquipment)

    Should help growth prospects of PSUs & Army

    Vehicle manufacturers

    Positive: BEL, BEML, Pipavav , Tata Motors

    amongst other private players

    Ships&VesselstobeexemptedfromExcise

    Dut No CVD on im orted shi s & vessels

    Beneficial to the Shipbuilding sector Positive: L&T, Pipavav, Tata Motors amongst

    others

    HigherallocationtowardsRoads&Highways

    vertical

    Beneficial for Road Equipment players, who are

    impacted due to slowdown in demand

    Positive: Gujarat Apollo, Action Construction

    Equipment, BEML amongst others

    Those investin over Rs 1 bn towards lant and This incentive would lead to hi her rofits for Positive: BHEL and those com anies willinmachinery during 01042013 to 31032015,

    would be eligible to deduct 15% of investment

    done as investment allowance

    those making investments now (also life of the

    plant in the books would get increased)

    to invest, however timeline is too short to

    initiate a project

    Rs 14 bn allocation towards Water Purification

    Plants

    To benefit smaller ticket sized water purifiers Positive: Va Tech Wabag & other private

    players

    Source:BudgetDocuments;IndiaNiveshResearch

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    CEMENT

    BUDGET IMPACT: NEUTRAL (Provided rural demand picksup)

    Budget Developments

    next 12 years. Despite the current market dynamics, the cement price has been reeling high on expectations of

    demand revival. On the back of increase in allocation towards rural housing & Roads & Highways vertical, when

    coupled with elections due in 2014, strengthens our view that demand would revive and support higher prices.

    Proposal Impact on Sector Companies Impacted

    36% increase in allocation towards hi h cement Should lead to revival in demand Positive: All cement com anies would be

    , ,

    cement players, those with captive power plants (such as ACC, Ambuja, Ultratech and JP Associates). On a whole, we

    do not expect much impact on the profitability of frontline cement companies.

    consumption areas, such as Irrigation (148.7%),

    Roads & Highways (35.5%)

    benefitted

    Customs & CVD on steam coal increased to 2%

    from 0% and 1%, respectively; for bituminous

    Increase of duty on Steam coal (used for

    cement production) would almost nullify the

    Neutral: ACC, Ambuja, Ultratech, and JP

    Associates

    from 5% & 6%, respectively bituminous coal (for captive power plants)

    Enhance allocation towards Rural Housing Fund

    from Rs 40 bn to Rs 60 bn

    Should drive demand for rural housing and

    lead to increase in cement consumption

    Positive: Cement majors along with regional

    cement players such as JK Lakshmi Cement

    Ltd, Shree Cements, etc.

    Increase in tax rate on ro alt & technical To im act net mar in of com anies with non Ne ative: For ACC & Ambu a

    services fees for nonresident parent companyfrom 10% to 25%

    Indian parent companies, such as, Heidelbergetc.

    Source:Budgetdocuments,IndiaNiveshResearchIndiaNiveshResearch February28,2013|10PostBudgetReview201314

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    FMCG

    BUDGET IMPACT: POSITIVE (Rural consumption to boost revenue growth...)

    Relative to other key sectors the Union Budget 201314 had a few positive surprises for FMCG pack, except

    increase in excise duty on cigarettes. The high doubledigit increase in agriculture credit and various rural

    employment generating schemes could lead to increase in rural disposable income. We believe this should

    strengthen rural consumption story, which remained the key driver for FMCG sector for past few years.Hence, we believe, budget should be a volume booster for FMCG sector going ahead.

    Issues Proposal Companies Impacted

    Specific Items Excise Duty

    Cigarettes Excise duty increased by about 18% Negative : ITC,VSTInds,Godfrey

    PhillipsSpecific Items Customs Duty

    Peanut Butter Exempted from basic customs duty Positive: Agro Tech Foods Ltd.

    Rural Development Scheme : NREGA/PMGSY 13%/2.3% yoy growth in NREGA/PMGSY programme

    would lead to an increase in disposable income and

    strengthen consumption story (largely driven by the

    rural areas).

    Positive : Entire FMCG sector

    Agriculture Credit 22% increase in credit flow to agriculture sector to

    Rs.7,000 bn

    Positive : Entire FMCG sector

    Tax Rate Increase in tax rate on royalty & technical services

    fee to nonresident parent company from 10% to

    Neutral : Entire FMCG sector

    Source:BudgetDocuments;IndiaNiveshResearch

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    INFRASTRUCTURE

    BUDGET IMPACT: NEUTRAL (But a lot could have been done)

    Budget Developments

    Apart from addressing broader Infra verticals, FM picked up Roads & Highways, Urban Infra verticals and announced

    higher spending plans (on back of 2014 elections). In road sector, instead of addressing structural issues (delays in

    getting clearances & financing woes), FM announced setting up of a regulatory body for Roads & Highways sector,

    which would in our view would be ainful for Infra la ers in the near term but ood for the lon term

    Proposal Impact on Sector Companies Impacted

    29.6%increaseinNHAIallocationtoRs375bn

    forFY14E;BuildroadsinNE;3,000kmsofroad

    Road subsector which witnessed slowdown in

    award activity should see some revival

    Positive: ITNL, Sadbhav Eng, IRB Infra,

    Ashoka Buildcon, MBL Infra, J Kumar Infra

    Regulator for Roads & Highways vertical Would address issues such as tariff setting,

    service quality levels, assess concessionaire

    claims, servicelevel benchmarking , etc. (near

    term ne ative but lon term ositive

    Positive: ITNL, Sadbhav Eng, IRB Infra,

    Ashoka Buildcon, MBL Infra

    Raise Rs 500 bn Tax free bonds towards financing

    of Infra. projects

    Should address funding foes of Infra players up

    to certain extent

    Positive: ITNL, IRB, GMR, GVK, Sadbhav,

    amongst others

    Rs 9,116 bn spending towards Irrigation projects Positive for Irrigation EPC players, but remain Positive: IVRCL, NCC, Ramky Infra

    concerned about actual execution

    Source:BudgetDocuments,IndiaNiveshResearch

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    OIL&GAS

    BUDGET IMPACT: NEUTRAL (Besides no clarity on subsidy sharing mechanism and pricing of natural gasone more ambiguity added in E&P side)

    Overall budget impact on the sector is Neutral with respect to any new proposals; however, it is negative with

    respect to key prebudget expectations. There was a disappointment towards 1 Extension o tax holidays or

    refineries 2) clarity on the subsidy sharing mechanism and natural gas prices. The government has allocated

    budgetary support of Rs 650 bn towards petroleum subsidy in 1314 on hope that partial deregulation of oilproduction will led to lower underrecovery (that is significantly lower than of revised budget estimates 1213

    Issues Proposal ImpactUnder the current system, the oil firms first recover their costs from

    . . .

    impact on companies like Cairn India, RIL and other upstream companies. However some positive

    announcement made towards the reviewing pricing of natural gas that is already known in the street.

    Movetowardsa

    revenuesharingmodel

    Oil and gas exploration contracts will now be awarded on a revenue

    sharing basis, shifting from the current profitsharing

    sa es o o an gas an en s are pro s w e ov . er e

    change in system govt. will start getting its share with the start of

    production in the field irrespective of the cost recover . Negative for

    RIL, Cairn India and other upstream companies.

    Reviewon

    natural

    gas

    The pricing of natural gas will be reviewed so as to remove the

    Positive : If gas prices are hiked, it will promote further investment in

    gas sector and will be positive for upstream companies like, ONGC.

    Oil India , Cairn and RIL. There will be negative impact on

    pricehike uncertainties on the issuepe roc em ca us nesses o u wou o se y ncrease n

    volume of natural gas.

    It will adversely impact the financial prospects of end users,

    especially power and fertilizer sector

    Extend the tax holiday

    to natural gas sectorand

    refineries

    No announcement made Neutral for OMCs and upstream companies RIL

    Policyregarding

    shale

    gasA policy to encourage exploration and production of shale gas will beannounced.

    Positive It will reduce dependence on oil and gas imports

    Source:BudgetDocuments;IndiaNiveshResearchIndiaNiveshResearch February28,2013|14PostBudgetReview201314

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    PHARMA

    BUDGET IMPACT : NEUTRAL

    There was no specific announcement for pharma sector in Budget 201314 except few small ones. On the

    line of NRHM (National Rural Health Mission) government announced NUHM (National Urban Health

    ss on n e prev ous year s u ge sess on, w c s e y o e mp emen e rom curren year onwar s.

    Despite, extension of healthcare scheme from rural regions to urban region, overall allocation to New

    National Health Mission (NRHM+NUHM) increased only 2% yoy to Rs 212 bn in FY14E. Other than that,Finance Ministry allocated Rs 16.5 billion for six AIIMS like Institutes & Rs 10.7 billion for AYUSH. Hence, total

    ,

    Rs 305 billion allocated in the starting of previous budget session and than revised downward to Rs 249

    billion currently, for FY13E.

    We dont anticipate any direct impact on healthcare & pharma sector from the current budget.

    Issues Industrywishlist Ourexpectation Budget Outcome Impact

    MAT exemption

    from SEZCould exempt from MAT to all

    manufacturing units in SEZ to

    promote investments & exports.

    Unlikely Inlinewithourview. No Impact.

    Customsduty at the same level.

    .

    SubInfrastructure

    status

    In order to meet challenges &

    attract investment, government may

    Unlikely Inline withourexpectations. No impact.

    Source:BudgetDocuments;IndiaNiveshResearchinfrastructure status to Healthcare.

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    POWER

    BUDGET IMPACT: POSITIVE (Fuelled with small positive but major reforms still pending)

    The Budget was positive for the Power sector. As expected, tax holiday under Section 80IA was extended by

    one more year till March 2014. To meet the fuel requirement for power the govt. proposed to encourage

    Publicprivatepartnership (PPP) model to raise coal production. Further reduction in duty on Bituminous coal

    is the positive for the company which have high exposure on imported coal.

    Issues Proposal Impactofourexpectation

    Tax holiday under section 80IA for power projects extended from Positive Extension will benefit the companies which are

    Extension of 80 IA benefit 31.3.2013 to 31.3.2014. commissioning plants after March2013, such as R Power,

    CESC, NTPC, Adani Power, JSW Energy etc.

    Duties on Steam Coal and Bituminous

    Coal equalized

    Duties on Steam Coal and Bituminous Coal equalized and 2 percent

    custom duty and 2 percent CVD levied on both kinds coal.Positive As bituminous coal is highly used for power

    generation and reduction in duty is positive for Adani

    Power, Tata Power and JSW energy.

    PPPpolicyframeworkwithCoalIndia

    Publicprivatepartnership (PPP) model should be followed to raise

    coal production. Govt. proposed a PPP policy framework with Coal

    India Ltd as one of the partners in order to increase production to

    supply to power producers and other consumers

    Positive for sector as a whole

    Changeinpolicypertaining

    to im orted fuelbased ro ects

    No announcement madeNegative

    for Tata Power, R Power and Adani Power

    Restructuring planofSEBs

    State Government urged to prepare the financial restructuring plan,

    quickly sign MoU and take advantage of the schemeNeutral: No announcement made regarding Budgetary

    allocation of fund to SEBs for restructuring their debt

    Reintroducegenerationbased The govt. will provide Rs. 8 bn to the ministry of new and renewablePositive for Tata power and Suzlon

    ncen ves orw n energypro ec .

    Source:BudgetDocuments;IndiaNiveshResearchIndiaNiveshResearch February28,2013|16PostBudgetReview201314

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    REALESTATE

    BUDGET IMPACT: NEGATIVE (Negative news flow continues)

    Budget Developments

    Residential Real Estate markets across the country has been witnessing slowdown. With weaker balance sheets, and

    current challenging macroenvironment, sector on a whole was looking towards budget with lots of expectations.

    Levy of 1% TDS on transfer of Immovable Property, which was rolled back in May2012 has been again proposed.

    Also, extension of interest subvention scheme has not been made. The only respite amongst these negatives have

    Proposal Impact on Sector Companies Impacted

    Levy of 1% TDS on transfer of ImmovableProperty with value of more than Rs 5 mn

    Should lead to an increase in the transaction costs Negative: All Real Estate companies wouldbe impacted

    een ncrease n tax e uct on nterest component o an n v ua s ng to s . mn.

    (other than Agri. Land)

    Increase on excise duty on marble from Rs

    30/sq.m to Rs 60/sq.m

    Should lead to increase in costs Negative: All Real Estate companies to be

    impacted

    Increase in tax deduction interest Residential home buyers may get benefited & Positive: Ackruti, Vascon, Parsvnath, HDIL

    . .

    for housing loans taken in FY14 (provided

    loan value is less than Rs 2.5 mn)

    increase in demand

    Rate of abatement reduced from 75% to 70%

    for flats with carpet area of 2,000 sft or

    Should lead to increase in total cost of flats Negative: Premium Developers (DLF,

    Unitech) & TierI city Developers (Oberoi

    . .

    with high component of services)

    ,

    Source:Budgetdocuments,IndiaNiveshResearchIndiaNiveshResearch February28,2013|17PostBudgetReview201314

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    TELECOM/MEDIA

    BUDGET IMPACT: NEUTRAL (Regulatory constrains remain)

    As expected Union Budget 201314 turned out be a nonevent for Telecom sector. Increase in custom duty on Set

    To Boxes remains ne ative for DTH service roviders. However increase in the excise dut on mobile hone set

    costing more than Rs.2,000 should not put any strain on the pockets of telcos (passed on to the consumer). Parallel

    to the last budget government has pencilled in ~Rs.400 bn revenue from the upcoming 2G spectrum auction. This

    illustrates that market expectation of softening in regulatory hurdles is a false assumption. There is no doubt that

    sector has potential with 34% of rural teledensity & enormous opportunity for the 2G/3G data expansion.

    , .

    few pending regulatory issues during the announcement of Spectrum Enactment Act.

    Issues Proposal Companies Impacted

    , , ,

    Tata Sky etc

    ExciseDuty For mobile phones priced at more than Rs.2000 excise duty is

    increased from 1% to 6%. However, we expect this to be passed on to

    Neutral: BHARTI,IDEA,RCOMetc

    .

    Source:BudgetDocuments;IndiaNiveshResearch

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    IndiaNivesh Research February 28 2013 | 20Post Budget Review 201314