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NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Space Weather Prediction Center Products and Services
Joe Kunches & Bill MurtaghNOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC
Boulder, CO
NOAA GPS/GNSS WorkshopBoulderOctober 24, 2007
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Overview
• SWPC Forecast Office and
ISES
• Event products tied to NOAA
Space Weather Scales
• SWPC Customers
• Case Study: 18 August 2003
Severe (G4) Magnetic Storm
• Customer economic impacts
• Verification and Validation
critical
• Vision for future products
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Assess, Predict, Engage, Advise & Inform
Space Weather Forecast Office
•Joint USAF/NOAA Center, staffed 24/7
•Provide alerts, warnings, watches, and scheduled products to non-DOD customers
•Quality driven, verify forecasts
•Aggressively strive for product improvement
•Function as World Warning Agency for the International Space Environment Service
International Space Environment Service (ISES)
NOAA Space Weather Scales
Introduced in 1999
Similar to Hurricane and Tornado intensity scales (1 thru 5)
Three Categories– Radio Blackouts, R-scale
(Caused by Solar Flares)– Solar Radiation Storms, S-scale
(Caused by Particle Events)– Geomagnetic Storms, G-scale
(Caused by CMEs)
Equivalent Physical Measures– Radio Blackouts, R-scale:
Solar X-ray Flux on GOES– Solar Radiation Storms, S-scale:
Energetic Proton Flux on GOES– Geomagnetic Storms, G-scale:
Ground-based Magnetometer deviations
A few of the agencies and industries that rely on NOAA
space weather services today:
• U.S. power grid infrastructure • Commercial airline industry • Dept. of Transportation ( GPS) • NASA human space flight activities • Satellite launch and operations • DoD Operations
DOENuclear Reg Comm
SchlumbergerNY/PJM Grid
BallLoral
NESDIS/SOCCDigital Globe
BoeingLockheedAerospaceEchostar
NASASpace Command
ISS AstronautsFAA
AmericanUnited Airlines
NorthwestContinental
Growth of Space WeatherGrowth of Space WeatherCustomersCustomers
NOAA SpaceEnvironmentCenter
Sunspot CyclesSunspot Cycles
Commercial Space Transportation
Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology
Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Who Really Cares?
• NASA Manned Space Flight– May alter EVA’s during adverse space weather
• GPS Survey Operations– Can’t work during storms
• Commercial Airlines– Dispatchers change routes to accommodate conditions
• Missile Launch Operations– Atlas launches include space weather information
• Electric Utilities– Configure grid in a more robust/less profitable state
• Emerging Applications– E911 Emergency Services– Traffic Management
Impact Area Customer (examples) Action (examples) Cost (examples)
Spacecraft
(Individual systems to complete spacecraft failure; comm and radiation effects)
Lockheed Martin, Orbital, Aerospace Corp, Boeing, Digital Globe, Sciences Corp, Space Systems Loral, NASA, NOAA, DoD
- Postpone launch
- In orbit - Reboot systems; Turn off/safe instruments and/or spacecraft
Loss of spacecraft can exceed
$500M
Commercial loss exceeds $1B
Worst case storm - $100B
Electric Power
(Equipment damage to electrical grid failure and blackout conditions)
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory, Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Allegheny Power, Central Maine, American Transmission Company
Many mitigating actions:- adjust/reduce system load - disconnect components, - postpone maintenance
-Estimated loss ~$400M from unexpected geomagnetic storms
- $3-6B loss in GDP (blackout)
Airlines (Communications)
(Loss of flight HF radio communications)
United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet, etc.
Divert polar flights, change flight plans
Change altitude
Cost ~ $100k per diverted flight
$10-50k for re-routes
Airlines (Radiation)
(Radiation dose on crew and passengers)
United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas, Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet etc.
Divert polar flights, change flight plans
Change altitude (even at mid-latitudes)
- Cost ~$100k per diverted
flight
- Health risks
Surveying & Navigation
(Use of magnetic field or GPS could be impacted)
FAA-WAAS, New York and Texas Dept. of Transportation, BP Alaska, Schlumberger, GlobalSantaFe, etc.
Postpone activities; Redo survey; Use alternate or backup navigation tools
BP Alaska cost $10,000 per day, other surveys have similar costs
Vendor Industry
(Servicing the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), and National Grid)
Northwest Research Assoc., INC
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
Metatech Corp.
Data used in real time to alert electric power companies of significant geomagnetic storms
NOAA’s Space Weather Services NOAA’s Space Weather Services ~ Economic and Societal Impacts ~~ Economic and Societal Impacts ~
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Forecasts of Ionospheric Conditions the Target
• With the right mix of real time data– Near the Sun
– Interplanetary
– Ionospheric
• Plus good models– USTEC
– “Son of USTEC”
• Good predictions can be made
• August 2003 severe magnetic storm prediction is an illustration
18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm
Geomagnetic Alerts and Warnings issued to over 500 customers -
Government
NASAFAA
US Nuclear Reg CommissionNOAA/NESDIS/SOCC
U.S. Department of EnergyITS
NISTmore…
Transportation
Virgin Atlantic Airways LtdUnited Airlines
Oakland Oceanic Air Traffic Control CtrAMTRAKFAA/ATC
more…
Communications/Nav/GPS
SES-AmericomJohnson, Frank & Associates, Inc.
AT&T Sat Comm OpsAT&T Network Operations Ctr
COMSAT General CorpGE Americom
ARINCINTELSAT
more…
Space Operations
NASA/SRAGEuropean Space AgencyCanadian Space Agency
Lockheed Martin Missiles and SpaceSpace Systems/Loral
Hughes Space & CommBoeing Space Station
more…
Electric Power
Electric Research & Management New York Independent System Operator
Deer Lake Power Bonneville Power AdministrationAmerican Transmission CompanyVirginia Electric Power Company
more…
18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE EPAM18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE EPAM
Solar eruption occurred on 14 Aug
Large mass ejectionimpacts ACE on 17 Aug
ACE Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM)
- The enhancements in the low energy protons alerted forecasters to the strong possibility of an Earthbound coronal mass ejection, over 24 hours in advance! - The magnitude of the enhancement suggested a strong magnetic storm was possible.
18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE SWEPAM18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE SWEPAM
The mass ejection impacts ACE on 17 Aug/1340Z – almost 66 hours after the eruption on the sun.
Measurements at L1 provide 30-45 minutes leadtime beforethe mass ejection impacts the Earth’s magnetic field, but interplanetary magnetic field
information will determine which warnings should be issued.
18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE Mag18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE Mag
Strong magnetic field measurements at ACE alert forecasters to potentially severe geomagnetic storming.
The Magnetic Field Instrument (MAG)
- Forecasters wait for “rotation”, then issue K6 warning at 18/0439Z to over 400 customers.
- K6 occurs at 18/0641Z – 2:02 Hours Leadtime!
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Space Weather Effects
• The number of products above does not include the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time solar wind data sets, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month
• Over 400 event-driven products were issued during each of the solar “minimum” years (1996 & 1997)
Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued During Solar Cycle 23Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued During Solar Cycle 23
NOAA space weather alerts and NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by lead warnings are distributed by lead organizations to sister agencies and organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups…subordinate groups…
NOAA/SECRadiation
Alert/Warning
NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group
NASA Mission Control•NASA Management•Flight Control•Biomedical Engineers•Surgeon
ESA (Europe) Mission Control
NASDA (Japan) Mission Control
CSA (Canada) Mission Control
RSA (Russia) Mission Control
Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems
Lockheed Martin Management
Service Begins
ACE RTSW customers are from 62 domains, the top users:
Japan U.S. Government .com (commercial) United KingdomEducation .net (commercial)Germany RussiaAustralia Belgium
46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site:
• 35 updating plots • 8 real-time lists• 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials"
Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data
• A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers
• SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE RTSW data display files every month
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
mo
de
ls
Models - in development; being evaluated for operations; in use internationallyModels used in SEC Operations
Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind
DataData
• SEC is unable to fund transition of critical models into operations• Without additional resources, the gap above will continue to grow• Customer demands for regional specification/forecasts - unmet
• ACE data directly drives five of the eleven SEC space weather watches and warnings, and influences the remaining six
• Web Site: More than 30 million files transferred each month.
– ~500,000 files created monthly with near-real-time data for 176 products
– more than 250,000 unique customers per month– customers from 150 countries
NOAA/SEC has end-to-end system responsibility for universally used space environment data acquired by the GOES and POES environmental satellites. SEC also supplies real time solar wind data from the NASA ACE satellite.
• A million solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers
• Eight million GOES file transfers per month (web only) – 140,000 unique users monthly
• Five million POES file transfers per month (web only)– 185,000 unique users monthly– 30-40% of all NOAA/SEC customers use POES data
All the above numbers reflect monthly usage near solar minimum!
Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Traffic and Customer SummaryTraffic and Customer Summary
NOAA/SEC Real Time Data NOAA/SEC Real Time Data - an - an absoluteabsolute requirement to support worldwide DoD operations requirement to support worldwide DoD operations
NOAA/SEC Data(Primarily Satellite)
- Critical loss of radar target tracking or creates false targets - Launch trajectory errors & payload deployment problems - Direct radiation hazard to high altitude aircrews - HF radio blackouts – comm impact to sensitive operations - SATCOM interference/downlink problems - Impede SAR (search & rescue) operations
>80% of ALL DoD space wx alerts/warnings rely on NOAA data
STRATCOM
USAFAir Force
Weather Agency
Joint Space Ops Center
Missile Defense Agency
Space Command
U.S. Northern Command and NORAD
Army and Navy Operations
National Reconnaissance Office
NationalSecurityImpacts
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Some Economic Estimates
The direct global economic impact of SW has been estimated at about $200 M per year
Rationale and Requirements for A Space Weather Programme
(Richard B. Horne, 2001), 3.
US Department of Defense spends $500M per year to mitigate space weather effects
Storms from the Sun (Carlowicz and Lopez, 2002), 128.
Between 6/00 and 12/01 space weather added $650 million of costs to the wholesale price of electricity in one power pool in the U.S. ($433 million/yr)
Space Weather and the Electricity Market (Forbes & St. Cyr, 2002)
Williamson et al,Space Policy InstituteThe George Washington University
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Navigation Systems and GPS
Ionospheric disturbances result in system failure, loss of phase lock, and position errors
A 1% gain in continuity and availability of GPS would be worth $180M per year
Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme (DERA, 2000), 21.
Williamson et al,Space Policy InstituteThe George Washington University
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Electric Power: Geomagnetically Induced Currents
GIC in transmission lines cause:Power surges, network supply interruptions, transformer
damage, and reduced lifetime of components – and any single failure can develop into cascading damages and outages
A geomagnetic storm in 1989 caused $13.2M in damage to power systems operators in Quebec, and another $27M to power operators in NJ; additional social and direct economic costs to customers
Natural Resources, Government of Canada
Williamson et al,Space Policy InstituteThe George Washington University
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Electric Power
Oak Ridge National Laboratory estimates that a GIC- induced black out in the NE could result in $3-6B loss in GDP
Earth in Space, Vol. 9 No 7 1997
Space weather in deregulated grid can cause the cost of electricity to jump from $15 to $68 per MW on spot market
Forbes & St. Cyr, 2002
Cost of shielding power lines from GIC is prohibitive, some preventive measures can be taken with prediction notice
Storms from the Sun, 104.
After 1989, Hydro-Quebec spent $1.2B on capacitors to prevent flow of GIC direct current
New Scientist “Fire in the Sky” 1999
Williamson et al,Space Policy InstituteThe George Washington University
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Satellites & Spacecraft
Space weather is a serious consideration for spacecraft designers, satellite operators, and space insurance companies
Estimated annual benefit of avoiding space weather losses: $11M
Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 20.
In 1989, a space weather storm caused such significant orbital decay that Air Force Space Command lost track of 1,300 of the 8,000 objects under observation to orbital decay
– Of possible concern to human spaceflight crews
SW loss of a satellite could be confused with a hostile act by an adversary or potential adversary
Williamson et al,Space Policy InstituteThe George Washington University
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Satellites In March 1989, 7 geostationary satellites made 177 orbital
adjustments in 2 days, more than normally made in a year, reducing the satellites’ useful life
Storms from the Sun, 98.
Spacecraft insurance companies paid out $500M between 1994-1999 for on-orbit failures (some from space weather effects)
Space Environment Center Topic Paper: Satellites and Space Weather
In 1998-2000, space insurance payouts = twice premiumsBenefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 27.
Improved space weather prediction could provide insurers with better risk assessment capabilities
Williamson et al,Space Policy InstituteThe George Washington University
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Satellites In 1997, destruction of AT&T’s Telestar satellite
disrupted TV networks and part of the US earthquake monitoring network, and forced renegotiation of the sale of Telestar, resulting in a drop of $234M in value
Storms from the Sun, 132.
Disruptions to government satellites cost about $100M per year, with potential to be reduced by 50% through improved anomaly diagnostics
Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 21.
Space Launch– Space weather exacts extra costs for space launch when it causes
launches to be delayed– With 2 days warning of solar proton events, Arianespace could
save up to $2.5M per year (Benefits of Space Weather Programme)
Williamson et al,Space Policy InstituteThe George Washington University
Kent A. DoggettNOAA Space Environment Center
Space Weather Operations
Boulder, Colorado, USA
Creating Valuable Space Weather Products:Transition and Verification at SEC Space Weather Operations
Space Weather WeekMay 19–22, 2003
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Future Products
• Forecasts, Forecasts, Forecasts!!!– IF GOES, STEREO, and SDO give better solar observations– AND ACE, STEREO, KwaFu give the solar wind propagating
earthward– PLUS CORS, COSMIC give ionospheric conditions globally– THEN USTEC and newer renditions give predictions for
Positioning /Navigation/Timing (PNT) users
• External User Base continues to grow– Electronic navigation (GPS III, Galileo, Glonass, Compass,
etc., plus backup system eLoran)– Commercial providers, per recent interaction with AGI– NextGen, E911/E112, ADS-B implementations all rely on
GPS/GNSS to be the best it can be
• Internal to NOAA, User Base also expanding– Airborne, marine, ground surveying all need optimal
GPS/GNSS