Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Highlights of Monday's Aviation Highlights of Monday's Aviation Workshop: Workshop: Mapping the Way Mapping the Way
AheadAhead
Joe Kunches
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC
Boulder, Colorado
Joe Kunches
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC
Boulder, Colorado
2008 Space Weather WorkshopApril 29Boulder
Session OverviewSession Overview
• High Points
– Programmatics
– Radiation and Forecast Challenges
– Airlines (Polar routes are hot!, Cross Polar Working Group, AMS Policy Study, Education)
– Panels
– Airline operations issues
– New services from modelers, SWPC, and Commercial Interests
• High Points
– Programmatics
– Radiation and Forecast Challenges
– Airlines (Polar routes are hot!, Cross Polar Working Group, AMS Policy Study, Education)
– Panels
– Airline operations issues
– New services from modelers, SWPC, and Commercial Interests
ProgrammaticsProgrammatics
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Initiative
• Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) NextGen
• Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
• Alaska Region Collaboration Team (ARCTic)
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Initiative
• Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) NextGen
• Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
• Alaska Region Collaboration Team (ARCTic)
World Meteorological World Meteorological OrganizationOrganization
• Formal recognition of space weather
• Uses existing ISES relationships
• Dovetails to WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)
• On Executive Council agenda for June 2008
• Formal recognition of space weather
• Uses existing ISES relationships
• Dovetails to WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)
• On Executive Council agenda for June 2008
Significance of WMO InvitationSignificance of WMO Invitation
• Provides overarching legitimacy of space weather activities
• For aviation that links to:
– International Civil Aviation Organization (183 States)
– International Air Transport Association (240 Airlines)
– FAA
» Cross Polar Working Group
• Provides overarching legitimacy of space weather activities
• For aviation that links to:
– International Civil Aviation Organization (183 States)
– International Air Transport Association (240 Airlines)
– FAA
» Cross Polar Working Group
Space Weather Radiation HazardsAviation Workshop
ByRon Zwickl
NOAA/SWPCApril 28, 2008
FRA to DFW flight
Two major radiation risks in exploratory
missions
• SPE: sporadic, high dose. Shielding generally effective. Acute (deterministic) effects
• GCR: chronic, low dose. Shielding poorly effective. Late (stochastic) effects
Annual dose on Earth
Daily dose in LEO
CT abdomen/pelvis
Annual dose limit for radiation workers
AzoospermiaLymphopeniaNauseaVomiting
Haematopoietic syndrome
Chest X-ray film
GI syndrome
CNS syndrome
Pelvis X-ray film
Fibrosis
Skin desquamation
Annual dose in Kerala (India)
Annual cosmic rays at sea level
1
10
100
1000
10000
0.1
100000
Dr. Durante 4th European SWWBruxelles, Belgium, Nov 9, 2007
Radiation storm prediction – the challenges facing forecasters
Aviation WorkshopBoulder, Colorado, April 28 2008
Radiation Storms
• Proton Event Statistics
• Forecasting Challenges (and Successes!)
• Radiation storms are infrequent during the solar minimum years but large storms can occur during these minimum years
The Large >100 MeV Events (in pfu) 14 Jul 2000 410 28 Oct 2003 186 08 Nov 2000 347 29 Oct 2003 11015 Apr 2001 146 20 Jan 2005 65204 Nov 2001 253
>10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
S
un
spo
t N
um
ber
0
5
10
15
20
25
# o
f >
10 M
eV
Rad
iati
on
Sto
rms
Mike Stills Captain Bryn Jones Joe Kunches United Airlines SolarMetrics Limited, UK Space Weather Services Branch
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
Cross Polar Trans East ATM Providers’ Working Group AA System Operations Control CentreDallas, TexasApril 1–3, 2008
CPTEWG Space Weather Sub-Group:Defining Aviation Industry User Requirements
Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather WorkshopBoulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008From the Airlines: What’s New
Content
• Polar Route Popularity - A Great Place to Go!!
• Cross Polar Working Group (CPWG) Activities
• AMS and SolarMetrics Aviation Policy Study – Implementation
• Education Needs?
Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather WorkshopBoulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008From the Airlines: What’s New
Polar Route Popularity – Some Statistics
Crosspolar Traffic Levels from 2000 through 2007
840 776 884
2053
3731
5308
6930
368
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
nu
mb
er o
f m
ove
men
ts
Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather WorkshopBoulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008From the Airlines: What’s New
Aviation User Requirements – work plan
• Defining user requirements
• Define & prioritise the impacts/hazards
• Discuss operational decision-processes for each hazard
• Draught Service/Product Wish Lists (Forecasting, Nowcasting, Warnings, Alerts, etc)
• Communicating Space Weather information
• Delivery methods
• Formatting and integration with Terrestrial Weather Products (NextGen, SESAR)
• Product Training
Airline Operations PanelAirline Operations Panel
• Bryn Jones (moderator), Mike Holland, Henning Luebbe, Joel Morin, Mike Stills
• Bryn Jones (moderator), Mike Holland, Henning Luebbe, Joel Morin, Mike Stills
Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather WorkshopBoulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008From the Airlines: What’s New
Aviation User Requirements
• Current Polar-Ops route scenario chosen
• NextGen (SESAR) consideration
• Impact based – i.e., user viewpoint, not science focused
• HF Comms
• Radiation (Avionics, Humans)
• GPS / Navigation
Operations Key PointsOperations Key Points
• In flight measurements necessary to quantify radiation
• Do take action based on forecasts
• Pilot reports helpful for validation of models
• Paradox: New technologies allow efficiencies but vulnerable to SpWx
• Comm/Nav highest priorities
• “Don’t get too hung upon Solar Max – there are plenty of disruptions now!”
• In flight measurements necessary to quantify radiation
• Do take action based on forecasts
• Pilot reports helpful for validation of models
• Paradox: New technologies allow efficiencies but vulnerable to SpWx
• Comm/Nav highest priorities
• “Don’t get too hung upon Solar Max – there are plenty of disruptions now!”
New Services PanelNew Services Panel
• Kent Tobiska (moderator), Herb Sauer, Steve Hill, Chris Mertens
• Kent Tobiska (moderator), Herb Sauer, Steve Hill, Chris Mertens
New Services Key PointsNew Services Key Points
• NAIRAS funded, work to get global radiation field (Mertens)
• Geographic and day/night differences in HF/VHF effects (Sauer)
• SWPC reorg to get more products and services – D-Region Test Product soon (Hill)
• NAIRAS funded, work to get global radiation field (Mertens)
• Geographic and day/night differences in HF/VHF effects (Sauer)
• SWPC reorg to get more products and services – D-Region Test Product soon (Hill)
NAIRAS Integrated System Solution
Predictions/Nowcast/Forecast
Predictions/Nowcast/Forecast
ObservationsObservations
DataData
Decision Support Tools
NAIRAS Assessment:Real-time, global, atmosphericIonizing radiation dose rates
Track and archive radiationexposure levels atcommercial airline
altitudes
Enter flight path datato track/archive individual
crewmember radiationexposure levels
Provide accumulated radiation exposure levels
from “phantom” pilotswith typical flight schedules and
representative flight paths
Decision Support Tools
NAIRAS Assessment:Real-time, global, atmosphericIonizing radiation dose rates
Track and archive radiationexposure levels atcommercial airline
altitudes
Enter flight path datato track/archive individual
crewmember radiationexposure levels
Provide accumulated radiation exposure levels
from “phantom” pilotswith typical flight schedules and
representative flight paths
• Nowcast• Predictions• Forecasts• Model products
• Computational Techniques• Visualizations• Interoperability standards
• Observations• Geophysical parameters
Value & Benefits
Real-time monitor ofbiologically harmful
atmospheric radiation
Provide FAA/aviationindustry valuable datafor developing policies
and procedure formodifying aircrew travel
schedules to limitradiation exposures
Provide critical data forairline policy/management
decisions for flight reroutingduring solar storm events
Provide health sector (e.g.,NIOSH) with data to improve policies for
radiation exposure limits
Value & Benefits
Real-time monitor ofbiologically harmful
atmospheric radiation
Provide FAA/aviationindustry valuable datafor developing policies
and procedure formodifying aircrew travel
schedules to limitradiation exposures
Provide critical data forairline policy/management
decisions for flight reroutingduring solar storm events
Provide health sector (e.g.,NIOSH) with data to improve policies for
radiation exposure limits
Earth-Sun Observations
Near-Earth+Space Environment:NASA/ACE/HEAO-3
NOAA/GOES
Assimilated Atmospheric:Atmospheric Depth (METO)
Ground-based:Neutron Count Monitors
Earth-Sun Observations
Near-Earth+Space Environment:NASA/ACE/HEAO-3
NOAA/GOES
Assimilated Atmospheric:Atmospheric Depth (METO)
Ground-based:Neutron Count Monitors
Earth-Sun System &Planetary Models
Radiation Dose Rates:AIR,HZETRN,MESTRN
Near-Earth/Space Environment:Badhwar/ONeill-GCR,CMIT,LFM,SEP-trajectory,IGRF+
T96 magnetic field
Earth-Sun System &Planetary Models
Radiation Dose Rates:AIR,HZETRN,MESTRN
Near-Earth/Space Environment:Badhwar/ONeill-GCR,CMIT,LFM,SEP-trajectory,IGRF+
T96 magnetic field
ROSES 2005 - A.24
South Polar PresentationJune 21, 2000 00:00 UT Kp= 3
Scale indicates frequency at which the absorption reaches 10dB indicating severe degradation to complete blackout
23
The Plan
Contact Information:
Dr. Steven M HillDevelopment and Transition Section LeadNOAA Space Weather Prediction Center325 BroadwayBoulder, CO 80305
• Summer 2008 – Deploy Release 2 as an NWS Enhanced Product
• Fall ‘08 through Spring ’09 – Test period to collect customer input and suggestions
• Summer ’09 – Deploy as an operational NWS product, or incorporate user suggested changes and deploy for reevaluation
New Product AnnouncementNew Product Announcement
• Space Environment Technologies, IPS MeteoStar, Space Environment Corporation, and Air Force Research Laboratory, with assistance from NASA, to unveil a new product for commercial aviation tomorrow at this meeting. Watch for it!
• Space Environment Technologies, IPS MeteoStar, Space Environment Corporation, and Air Force Research Laboratory, with assistance from NASA, to unveil a new product for commercial aviation tomorrow at this meeting. Watch for it!
parting shot …
Kanzelhoehe Solar Observatory, Austria
December 1, 2000
