Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources

(FUNCEME)

Northeastern Brazil Drought Monitoring

Eduardo Martins

Buenos Aires, August 7-11th, 2017

Overview THE CONTEXT

TRYING TO CHANGE THE PARADIGM

DROUGHT MONITORING

DROUGHT PREDICTION AND EARLY WARNINGS

DROUGHT IMPACTS AND RISK ASSESSMENT

MITIGATION AND RESPONSE

GLOBAL/NATIONAL VS. LOCAL INFORMATION PROVIDERS

FUTURE: WHAT COMES NEXT? & CHALLENGES

PUBLICATIONS

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Ceará State: Storage Capacity 18,7 bi m3 11,4%: 2,1 bi m3

153 monitored reservoirs – 08/Aug/1730 empty49 dead volume73 reservoirs below 10% 108 reservoirs below 30%

115 cities: emergency state122 cities: Water supply  Jan/2018

Ceará State: Storage Capacity 18,7 bi m3 11,4%: 2,1 bi m3

153 monitored reservoirs – 08/Aug/1730 empty49 dead volume73 reservoirs below 10% 108 reservoirs below 30%

115 cities: emergency state122 cities: Water supply  Jan/2018

The Context

Monthly average rainfall and rainfall distribution (January‐December) forCeará from 2007 to 2017. Wet years are depicted in blue, dry years inred, and the average reference year is located at the right of the figure.

Drought Monitor

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Monitoring and forecasting/early warning

Monitoring and forecasting/early warning

Vulnerability/resiliency and impact assessment

Vulnerability/resiliency and impact assessment

Mitigation and response planning and measuresMitigation and response planning and measures

Drought Monitoring1. Data integration effort from current meteorological and hydrological

observation networks (state and federal) throughout the Northeast

Region.

2. Collaboration with national and international institutions in order to use

satellite‐based indicators to monitor drought and its impacts.

3. Use of hydrological semi‐distributed models to derive hydrological

drought indicators throughout the region (ongoing activity).

4. Introduction of new drought indices that are not currently used, but are

currently on test, in order to be included as part of a Drought Information

System (ongoing activity).

5. Expand the network of observers to gather impact information from the

water and agriculture sectors (ongoing activity).

Drought Monitor

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Monitoring and forecasting/earlywarningMonitoring and forecasting/earlywarning

Drought Monitor‐Data Integration EffortRaingauges Weather Stations

Automatic Weather Stations Reservoir Levels

Drought Monitor – Improvements

Drought Monitor – Dissemination of Products

http://www.monitordesecas.ana.gov.br

Hydrological Drought

Drought Prediction and Early Warnings 1. SSTs forecast system from IRI, now @FUNCEME July/2017.

2. Scenario building based on current conditions

3. Climate forecast system combining different global/regional

models:

Global: ECHAM 4.6 (@FUNCEME), NMME, CPTEC

Brazil: INMET Statistical Model

Regional Models: RSM97/2008, RAMS

4. Forecasting Drought Indicators: SPI, SPEI, SRunnoff, SDSI (Dry

Spell)

5. Other Forecasting Products: Inflows to the main reservoirs of the

region Effective use in the Water Allocation of 12 basins.

Drought Forecast – Improvements

Superensemble1. CPTEC/INMET/FUNCEME‐ECHAM4.62. NMME+ECHAM4.6

FMA

SSTs Forecasting System IRI  FUNCEME

Drought Indicators Forecasts:

SPI‐3/4 Months

SPEI‐3/4 Months

S2S: Dry/wet spells indicators

Onset/end SeasonDOWNSCALING

Drought Monitor & Trends – Improvements

Streamflow forecasts(Since 2005) Yield Forecasts

Drought Impacts and Risk Assessment 

Initial talks on implemmenting vulnerability assessment studies in

order to determine who and what is at risk and why.

State network of observers to gather and report information about

ongoing impacts of droughts.

Mitigation and Response

Develop system‐ and sector‐specific contigency plans ‐ e.g. each water

supply system will have its contigency plan, establishing what

mitigation actions should be undertaken according with the triggers

and the decision calendar related to that particular system.

Contingency Plans

Mitigation and response planning and measuresMitigation and response planning and measures

Operational response for when the drought hits:1. Rain‐fed agriculture2. Water Management3. Water Supply

PERNAMBUCO: Jucazinho Water Supply System

- #Municipalities: 15

- Population: 820.000 people

- Actual capacity: 1.250 l/s

- Pipeline system: 206 Km

- Future capacity: 1.800 l/s

GLOBAL/NATIONAL vs LOCAL INFORMATION PROVIDERSGLOBAL/NATIONAL vs LOCAL INFORMATION PROVIDERS

Cooperation is a two‐way street: It should not mean data‐sharing only;

What is in for the local/regional institutions? Ultimately, these institutions are the ones that will be hold responsiblefor the provided information.

COOPERATION WITH LOCAL INSTITUCIONALS:  Data sharing Capacity Building Pilots

and as a result  Sustainable local capacity!

Examples in Northeast: IRI, NDMC/CONAGUA.

1.COGERH – Drought Monitor derived products for reservoirbasins

2.National Water Agency (ANA): Drought Monitoring &Forecasting

3.National Water Agency (ANA)o Contingency Plans for Urban Water Supply Systems: Campina Grande & Caico ́

o Contingency Plans for Reservoir Systems: Engo. Avidos & São Gonç ̧alo, Açudes Curema‐Mãe D’Água

(+Canal de Redenção).

WHAT COMES NEXT? DROUGHT MONITOR, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT & 

CONTINGENCY PLANS

4. Ministry of Environment – Drought Monitor & Drought Policy

5. Ministry of Integration: Vulnerability Pilar – Initial Talks

WHAT COMES NEXT? DROUGHT MONITOR, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT & 

CONTINGENCY PLANS

USE THE MONITOR AS A CRITERIA FOR TRIGGERING ACTIONS INSEVERAL SECTORSMORE CONTINGENCY PLANS

MAKE MORE INSTITUTIONS*, BOTH AT THE FEDERAL AND STATELEVELS, CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROCESS

BRING MORE ACTORS INTO THE VALIDATION PROCESS

CHALLENGES

NLTA – Publications

NLTA – Publications

Thank you!

espr.martins@gmail.com

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