Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources
(FUNCEME)
Northeastern Brazil Drought Monitoring
Eduardo Martins
Buenos Aires, August 7-11th, 2017
Overview THE CONTEXT
TRYING TO CHANGE THE PARADIGM
DROUGHT MONITORING
DROUGHT PREDICTION AND EARLY WARNINGS
DROUGHT IMPACTS AND RISK ASSESSMENT
MITIGATION AND RESPONSE
GLOBAL/NATIONAL VS. LOCAL INFORMATION PROVIDERS
FUTURE: WHAT COMES NEXT? & CHALLENGES
PUBLICATIONS
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Ceará State: Storage Capacity 18,7 bi m3 11,4%: 2,1 bi m3
153 monitored reservoirs – 08/Aug/1730 empty49 dead volume73 reservoirs below 10% 108 reservoirs below 30%
115 cities: emergency state122 cities: Water supply Jan/2018
Ceará State: Storage Capacity 18,7 bi m3 11,4%: 2,1 bi m3
153 monitored reservoirs – 08/Aug/1730 empty49 dead volume73 reservoirs below 10% 108 reservoirs below 30%
115 cities: emergency state122 cities: Water supply Jan/2018
The Context
Monthly average rainfall and rainfall distribution (January‐December) forCeará from 2007 to 2017. Wet years are depicted in blue, dry years inred, and the average reference year is located at the right of the figure.
Drought Monitor
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Monitoring and forecasting/early warning
Monitoring and forecasting/early warning
Vulnerability/resiliency and impact assessment
Vulnerability/resiliency and impact assessment
Mitigation and response planning and measuresMitigation and response planning and measures
Drought Monitoring1. Data integration effort from current meteorological and hydrological
observation networks (state and federal) throughout the Northeast
Region.
2. Collaboration with national and international institutions in order to use
satellite‐based indicators to monitor drought and its impacts.
3. Use of hydrological semi‐distributed models to derive hydrological
drought indicators throughout the region (ongoing activity).
4. Introduction of new drought indices that are not currently used, but are
currently on test, in order to be included as part of a Drought Information
System (ongoing activity).
5. Expand the network of observers to gather impact information from the
water and agriculture sectors (ongoing activity).
Drought Monitor
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Monitoring and forecasting/earlywarningMonitoring and forecasting/earlywarning
Drought Monitor‐Data Integration EffortRaingauges Weather Stations
Automatic Weather Stations Reservoir Levels
Drought Monitor – Improvements
Drought Monitor – Dissemination of Products
http://www.monitordesecas.ana.gov.br
Hydrological Drought
Drought Prediction and Early Warnings 1. SSTs forecast system from IRI, now @FUNCEME July/2017.
2. Scenario building based on current conditions
3. Climate forecast system combining different global/regional
models:
Global: ECHAM 4.6 (@FUNCEME), NMME, CPTEC
Brazil: INMET Statistical Model
Regional Models: RSM97/2008, RAMS
4. Forecasting Drought Indicators: SPI, SPEI, SRunnoff, SDSI (Dry
Spell)
5. Other Forecasting Products: Inflows to the main reservoirs of the
region Effective use in the Water Allocation of 12 basins.
Drought Forecast – Improvements
Superensemble1. CPTEC/INMET/FUNCEME‐ECHAM4.62. NMME+ECHAM4.6
FMA
SSTs Forecasting System IRI FUNCEME
Drought Indicators Forecasts:
SPI‐3/4 Months
SPEI‐3/4 Months
S2S: Dry/wet spells indicators
Onset/end SeasonDOWNSCALING
Drought Monitor & Trends – Improvements
Streamflow forecasts(Since 2005) Yield Forecasts
Drought Impacts and Risk Assessment
Initial talks on implemmenting vulnerability assessment studies in
order to determine who and what is at risk and why.
State network of observers to gather and report information about
ongoing impacts of droughts.
Mitigation and Response
Develop system‐ and sector‐specific contigency plans ‐ e.g. each water
supply system will have its contigency plan, establishing what
mitigation actions should be undertaken according with the triggers
and the decision calendar related to that particular system.
Contingency Plans
Mitigation and response planning and measuresMitigation and response planning and measures
Operational response for when the drought hits:1. Rain‐fed agriculture2. Water Management3. Water Supply
PERNAMBUCO: Jucazinho Water Supply System
- #Municipalities: 15
- Population: 820.000 people
- Actual capacity: 1.250 l/s
- Pipeline system: 206 Km
- Future capacity: 1.800 l/s
GLOBAL/NATIONAL vs LOCAL INFORMATION PROVIDERSGLOBAL/NATIONAL vs LOCAL INFORMATION PROVIDERS
Cooperation is a two‐way street: It should not mean data‐sharing only;
What is in for the local/regional institutions? Ultimately, these institutions are the ones that will be hold responsiblefor the provided information.
COOPERATION WITH LOCAL INSTITUCIONALS: Data sharing Capacity Building Pilots
and as a result Sustainable local capacity!
Examples in Northeast: IRI, NDMC/CONAGUA.
1.COGERH – Drought Monitor derived products for reservoirbasins
2.National Water Agency (ANA): Drought Monitoring &Forecasting
3.National Water Agency (ANA)o Contingency Plans for Urban Water Supply Systems: Campina Grande & Caico ́
o Contingency Plans for Reservoir Systems: Engo. Avidos & São Gonç ̧alo, Açudes Curema‐Mãe D’Água
(+Canal de Redenção).
WHAT COMES NEXT? DROUGHT MONITOR, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT &
CONTINGENCY PLANS
4. Ministry of Environment – Drought Monitor & Drought Policy
5. Ministry of Integration: Vulnerability Pilar – Initial Talks
WHAT COMES NEXT? DROUGHT MONITOR, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT &
CONTINGENCY PLANS
USE THE MONITOR AS A CRITERIA FOR TRIGGERING ACTIONS INSEVERAL SECTORSMORE CONTINGENCY PLANS
MAKE MORE INSTITUTIONS*, BOTH AT THE FEDERAL AND STATELEVELS, CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROCESS
BRING MORE ACTORS INTO THE VALIDATION PROCESS
CHALLENGES
NLTA – Publications
NLTA – Publications