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Notore Chemical Industries Plc
Investor & Analyst Presentation
Half-Year ended March 2019
Champion of the African Green RevolutionMay 2019
Page #
1 Operating Environment 3
2 Key Performance Highlights 6
3 Corporate Strategy & Outlook 11
A Appendix 17
Outline
2
1. Operating Environment
4
§ The agriculture sector remains key to providing food security to the over 7bn people across the globe
- Total fertilizer nutrient demand was estimated at 184.02million tonnes in 2015 and is estimated to grow at 1.9% per annum between2015 and 2020, to reach an estimated 201.66million tonnes by the end of 2020
- The demand for Nitrogen, Phosphate and Potash is estimated to grow annually by 1.5%, 2.2% and 2.4% respectively for theindividual nutrients from 2015 to 2020
§ In 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) consumed an estimated 3.7million tonnes of fertilizer nutrients, with South Africa, Ethiopia, Nigeriaand Kenya being the main consumers of fertilizer within the region, accounting for over 50% of fertilizer consumption
§ Africa is expected to have the highest growth rate in fertilizer demand in the medium term, given the large expanse of arable land andgreat agricultural growth potential in the decade to come
§ More specifically, it is estimated that the demand for fertilizers in SSA would rise ~8% annually by 2021, with Nigeria and Ethiopiacontributing 28% and 18% respectively of regional demand growth
Global Demand for Fertilizer Nutrients African Demand for Fertilizer Nutrients
110 112 114 115 117 119
41 42 43 44 45 46 33 33 34 35 36 37
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020ENitrogen Potash Phosphate
In million tonnes
3.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3
1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.70.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020ENitrogen Potash Phosphate
In million tonnes
Global market demand for fertilizer
5
Local market demand for fertilizer
Key Statistics
5.5kg/ha(2)
Fertilizer consumption (kg/hectare of arable land)
34m hectaresof arable land (37.3% of land area)
Fertilizer usage across Nigeria
Agriculture as a % of Nigeria’s GDP
Fertilizer Demand in Nigeria (3)
Fertilizer Consumption in Nigeria (4)
§ Agriculture accounts for 20% ofNigeria’s GDP and statistics shows howfar the sector has declined over the last50 years, as Nigeria ramped up itsreliance on oil exports.
- Crop production accounts for thelargest contribution to Nigeria’sagriculture GDP, delivering anaverage of 88% between 2012 and2017.
§ Due to low production of fertilizerswithin the country and high prices ofimported fertilizers, the annualapplication amount of fertilizer inNigeria is well below the Sub SaharanAfrican average of c. 16.2kg/ha.(1)
§ The FG continues to make efforts toincrease both the supply and demandfor fertilizers, through provision ofsubsidies, grants, loans, amongstothers.
- More recently, through theimplementation of the PresidentialFertilizer Initiative(PFI) program in2017, in partnership with theFertilizer Producers and SuppliersAssociation of Nigeria, fertilizerblends have become available allyear round
Proportion of plots using some fertilizer
<10>10 and <25 >25 and <50 >50 and <75
>75
Metric Tonnes (millions)
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017
1.21
0.87
0.62
0.96
1.56
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
5
10
15
20
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Kg/hectare of arable land
(1), (2) & (3) - Sources: world bank development indicator 2016; (4) – Source: AfricaFertilizer.Org
2. Key Performance Highlights
2 Gas Supply§ Gas is the major feed stock in the production of urea fertilizer. It accounts for 95% of
the inputs
§ Notore has enjoyed uninterrupted supply of gas to its facilities since March 2016when it signed a 20 Year Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement with ErotonExploration and Production Company Limited
3
Financing Cost§ Finance cost dampens Notore’s current profitability because of the current plant
capacity utilization. Post TAM, Notore will increase its revenues to N50billion,consequently, its earnings before interest and tax (“EBIT”) will sufficientlyaccommodate its finance cost and yield robust net income
1
Operations – Plant Reliability§ Our plant achieved a capacity utilization of 49% of its production design capacity,
1500MTPD, during the 6 Month period under review, averaging 734MTPD
§ The Turn-around Maintenance (“TAM”) program of the plant which will restore it toits design production capacity of 1,500mtpd will be completed by Q1 2020
Key themes impacting our business
7
-16 % decrease
Change +/-
Key performance indicators review
12.69
3.05 4.63
7.56
-1.94
15.17
3.76
0.67
4.69
-4.47
Revenues (N'b) Gross profit (N'b) Operating Profit (N'b) EBITDA (N'b) PBT (N'b)
6M March 2019 6M March 2018
-16.37% -19.01% 587.6% 61.28%
121,915 MT Urea Sold
145,191 MT Urea Sold
Notes:
§ Revenue was impacted by 16.03% decline in urea sold due to production of 122,150 MT urea during the period under review
compared to 142,952 MT during the 6 Month period ended March 2018
§ Reduction in Gross profit reflects the impact of the drop in revenues; cost of sales margin variation was quite negligent at 80bps
§ Operating Profit & EBITDA improved significantly due to recognition of asset revaluation gains valued at approximately N4.76billion. In
addition, operating costs were managed effectively as they decreased by 0.82% from N3.20billion to N3.17billion in H1, 2019
8
6M 2019 FY Income Statement
Financial Year October 2018 – March 2019 October 2017 – March 2018
Period 6 Months 6 Months
Production Figures – 6 Month Design Capacity 250,000 MT 250,000 MT
Urea Produced 122,150 MT 142,952 MT
Urea Sold 121,915 MT 145,191 MT
Income Statement Naira’million Naira’million
Revenue 12,685 15,168
Cost of Sales (9,637) (11,405)
Gross Profit 3,048 3,764
Operating Expenses (3,173) (3,199)
Other Income 4,758 109
Operating Profit 4,633 674
Finance Income 19 3
Finance Cost (6,595) (5,147)
Net Finance Cost (6,575) (5,144)
Profit / (Loss) Before Tax (1,942) (4,470)
EBITDA 7,564 4,690
EBITDA Margin 43.4% 30.7%
9
Balance sheet as at end March 2019 and end September 2018
Financial Year March 2019 September 2018
Period Naira’millions Naira’millions
Non Current Assets 142,099 140,212
Current Assets 16,495 12,626
Total Assets 158,594 152,838
Non Current Liabilities 79,657 83,020
Current Liabilities 32,170 21,110
Total Liabilities 111,827 104,130
Equity 46,768 48,708
Equity & Liabilities 158,594 152,838
10
3. Corporate Strategy & Outlook
Driving strategy through IRIODE theme
Increase capacity
2019: 2000MTPD NPK
2023: 2645MTPD Urea
2023: 5000MTPD Methanol
Export to international market Continuously nurturing our
relationships with global trade partners to ensure markets for
export of our products
Increase efficiency Optimize:
1. Plant reliability 2. Gas usage
3. Energy consumption
Occupy the domestic spaceDeepen our distribution network and develop more crop specific
fertilizers in conjunction with established agriculture research
institutions
Develop the regional market Develop hubs in West Africa and Sahel Africa to drive adoption of best farming practices and agro
inputs
Reduce cost 1. Secure best financing terms
2. Procurement efficiencies3. Tax efficiency through Free
Zone Status4. Economies of scale
IRIODE
12
Strengthening our agricultural extension services network
Africa’s estimated annual
food import bill was $35
billion in 2017 and it is
expected to rise to $110
billion by 2025
Possible Solutions to Increasing Africa’s Self Sufficiency in Food
Provision of Quality Agro Inputs
Educating Farmers on Best farming
Practices
Creating Markets for Quality Outputs
Notore’s Intervention
§ Large-scale dissemination of farm inputs such asfertilizer and improved seeds
§ Establishment of more farm demonstration plotsand video viewing centres in Nigerian farmingcommunities to educate farmers on best farmingpractices for increased yields
Promotion of Farm Input Utilization
1 2 3
13
Value creation and revenue diversification
H1 2019 FY
H2 2019 FY
§ Finalised activities onthe installation of a2000MTPD NPKblending plant
§ Approved technologyfor a 5000MTPDmethanol plant
§ Reached advancedstage of negotiationwith third parties toaccommodate themwithin the Notore FreeZone – The Free Zoneoffers significant taxincentives to operatorswithin it
Diversification of Revenue from Urea
H1 2020 FY
§ Conclude the TAMprogram and attain1500MTPD productiontarget on a consistentbasis
§ This will increaserevenues by 80% andmove EBITDA marginsto between 45 - 50%range
Attain 1500MTPD urea Production
§ Post TAM, there will beadditional 34 MWpower which will beavailable for sale
Attain Power Generating Capacity of
59MW
H2 2020 FY
§ Develop the proposedindustrial complex intoa gas hub and anintegrated logisticsservice provider.
§ The Brownfield locationoffers the following toprospective clients:
- Land– 560 hectares
- Reliable power
- Access to dedicated
jetty – for import
and export activities
- Access to gas
- 153 residential units
Optimization of the Free Zone Status
October 2018
September 2020
14
§ Commission the2000MTPD NPKblending plant at theexisting Onne location
2000 MTPD NPK Blending Plant
§ Train II is aco-production plantwith 2,645MTPD ureaand 5,000MTPDmethanol capacity
§ Construction period isabout 3 years and it isexpected to commencein Q1, 2021
Commence FEED on Train II 2.6m MTPA
Plant
Projected financial outlook post TAM
Year FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025
Period 12 Months 12 Months 15 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Production Figures
Ammonia (MTPA) 258,660 323,400 323,400 323,400 323,400 323,400
Urea (MTPA) 421,200 495,000 495,000 495,000 495,000 495,000
Income Statement Naira’billion Naira’billion Naira’billion Naira’billion Naira’billion Naira’billion
Revenue 48.82 57.20 57.20 57.20 57.20 57.20
Other Income - 3.67 4.10 4.57 5.00 5.47
EBITDA 24.88 33.41 33.77 34.25 34.67 35.14
Ratio
EBITDA Margin 51.0% 54.9% 55.1% 55.4% 55.7% 56.1%
Notes§ Other income accounts for revenues from sale of captive power and rental income from lease of available land to third parties
§ TAM program is expected to be completed by Q1, 2020, hence full year post TAM revenues will be achieved in 2021 FY
15
Fertilizer market outlook
§ Nigeria has about 34 million hectares of arable land (FAO, 2017) requiring a minimum of 7
million MT of NPK & urea fertilisers annually
§ Nigeria’s fertilizer consumption per hectare is approximately about 5.5kg compared to the
FAO global recommendation of 200kg, confirming that there is still latent demand
§ Fast growing cash crops segment with a minimum 1.2 million MT annual demand of crop
specialty fertilizer blends locally
§ Rising importation of fertilisers by neighbouring West African markets from Nigeria (estimated
at approximately 500,000 MT annually)
§ Global warming
• Flooding and desertification causing food shortage• Overall arable land mass declining
16
A. Appendix
Snapshot of Nigerian agricultural space and opportunities
Land cultivated for cereal
14.3 million ha
Agricultural land
76.2million ha
Arable land
34million ha (42% harvested)
Cassava & tuber Land
7.2million ha
Irrigated land
259,000 ha
Tree-crop land
2.9million ha
Sources: FAO; world bank development indicator 2015; FEPSAN, FMARD records
18
Nigerian apparent fertilizer consumption 2013 - 2017
19
The table below provides information on the apparent consumption of fertilizer in Nigeria between 2013 – 2017,
according to AfricaFertilizer.Org:
Fertilizer Apparent Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports – Non Fertilizer Use
Fertilizer 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Urea 765,731 423,966 319,656 386,383 760,734
NPK 270,919 344,879 165,684 380,455 399,949
NP Compounds 87,988 68,535 47,986 115,845 96,984
Ammonium Sulphate 12,301 2,321 10,483 27,450 40,248
Other Phosphate Fertilizers 6 - 50,596 22,452 224,616
Other Fertilizers 77,014 34,517 23,492 26,779 42,285
Total (Metric Tonnes) 1,213,959 874,216 617,897 959,364 1,564,816
Growth n.a (28%) (29%) 55% 63%
Notore Urea Production 235,000 170,000 254,156 268,740 344,597
Industrialization through gas
One of the key objectives of Train II is the stimulation of the gas sector in the Niger-Delta through utilization ofsome of the abundant gas within the region that is untapped
Value added ProductsUrea and Methanol
Monetizing gas that would have been flared
Long term benefit of Train II Gas Utilization to the environment• Reduction of Greenhouse Gases• Reduction in carbon particulate formation
Methanol - serves as precursor for many commodity chemicals such as formaldehyde and acetic acid
• Yearly demand growth rate – 5%• Demand to remain strong in the next five years• Future distribution to African markets as they develop capacities for methanol utilization
Flared Gas in the Niger-Delta
20
Contact Details
Seyi Odeinde
Head, Investors Relations
Phone: +234 908 741 8746
Email: [email protected]
21
Thank You