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Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data
1
Nov 2016 = 18.9 Bn USDEx. Gold = 18.4 Bn USD
Oct 2016 = 17.6 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 17.4 Bn USD
Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.
Thai Export to Major Destinations
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
USEU Japan*
* ex. Aircraft and other manufacturing
%YoYShare 2015P 2015P
2016
H1 Q3 Oct NovAvg. Oct-Nov
Contr.Nov
Agriculture 7.5 -10.7 -9.7 -11.9 -9.5 20.9 4.6 1.4
Fishery 0.8 -17.2 11.0 22.6 16.1 24.0 20.0 0.2
Manufacturing 88.7 -5.5 -4.3 0.9 -3.6 7.8 1.9 7.0
Agro-manufacturing Products 12.0 -5.4 -0.3 0.6 -4.4 4.5 -0.1 0.6
Electronics and OpticalAppliances
16.5 -1.4 -5.8 1.2 -6.0 6.1 -0.4 1.0
Electrical Appliances 5.6 -2.1 1.3 8.5 -2.5 5.8 1.5 0.3
Automotive 15.1 2.5 2.1 5.7 -2.1 5.9 1.8 0.9
Machinery & Equipment 9.0 -0.2 -4.9 2.2 6.2 25.2 15.4 2.2
Petroleum Related 12.2 -21.0 -19.4 -12.0 -7.0 8.5 0.5 1.0
Total 100.0 -5.6 -2.0 0.4 -4.3 10.1 2.6
Ex. Gold -6.1 -4.7 -0.1 -3.6 9.1 2.5
Ex. Gold+Petroleum related -3.5 -2.6 1.6 -3.2 9.2 2.8
China
ASEAN5
ME
80
90
100
110
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
TH ex.Gold
TW
Asian Export Performance
ID
SG
MYCNKR
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)Ex.gold
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT
2
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
(%YoY)Share2011 2015
2016
H1 Q3 Oct NovP %MoMsa
Food & Beverages 18.1 -0.6 0.1 1.2 -2.0 1.7 -4.2
Automotive 17.8 2.2 3.7 -6.7 -7.3 1.5 6.0
- Vehicle 10.8 2.4 4.2 -4.7 -6.8 1.8 6.3
- Engine 7.0 1.7 2.7 -11.2 -8.5 0.9 5.6
Rubbers & Plastics 11.2 1.5 -0.5 -4.0 -0.5 5.1 7.3
IC & Semiconductors 7.3 0.9 -0.5 6.4 12.3 11.4 2.9
Textiles & Apparels 6.2 -6.9 -17.9 -10.3 -3.2 2.0 1.9
Chemicals 6.1 0.4 3.2 -1.5 7.4 0.0 -0.3
Cement & Construction 5.1 -3.4 -1.0 3.5 0.2 0.4 -0.1
Electrical Appliances 4.7 -3.2 13.3 23.6 13.8 4.3 -2.1
Petroleum 3.5 16.8 0.2 3.9 19.2 4.9 -7.8
HDD 1.3 -22.8 -16.0 1.1 -4.9 0.3 4.4
Others 18.9 0.2 -0.4 0.2 -3.3 6.9 6.5
MPI 100.0 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.0 3.8 -
MPIsa %D from last period - - - -0.3 0.4 2.1 2.1
Capacity Utilization (SA) - 65.8 65.6 64.5 66.3 67.7 -
0.7%
MPI Classified by Export Share
70
85
100
115
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Export<30%30%<Export<60%Export>60%
-0.3%5.7%
Nov%MoM
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production
70
80
90
100
110
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Industrial Electricity Consumption*Index of Work Hours in ManufacturingQuantity of Imported Raw Materials
Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2011)P = Preliminary data
Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT
* The latest month was estimated by the BOT
Source: Customs Department, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary
Import Value in USD
3
Nov 2016 = 16.1 Bn Ex. Gold = 15.3 Bn
Oct 2016 = 15.8 BnEx. Gold = 14.9 Bn
Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015 = 100)
* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods
80
90
100
110
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Value Quantity Price
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015 = 100)
%YoYShare 2015
2015
2016P
H1 Q3 Oct NovAvg.Oct-Nov
Contr.Nov
Consumer 9.9 1.5 4.1 8.0 8.9 8.8 8.8 0.9
Raw material&Intermediate 54.7 -17.6 -16.0 -4.7 4.5 11.0 7.7 5.3
o/w Fuel 14.7 -37.4 -34.7 -16.6 6.9 14.3 10.5 1.6
o/w Raw mat&Interm ex. Fuel 40.1 -6.8 -8.6 -0.5 3.8 10.0 6.8 3.7
Capital 26.2 -3.5 -5.7 2.2 -7.1 -1.7 -4.5 -0.5
Others 9.2 1.1 -2.0 0.6 80.1 -19.3 12.8 -2.7
Total 100.0 -10.6 -11.3 -2.4 7.4 2.5 4.8
Ex. Gold -11.2 -10.6 -1.5 2.6 6.9 4.7
Ex. Gold&Fuel -3.2 -5.4 1.4 1.9 5.8 3.9
Sources: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office
44
Fiscal PositionBillion Baht FY2015 FY2016P
FY2016P FY2017P
Q3 Q4 Oct Nov
Revenue1/ 2,207 2,412 749 603 154 204
(%YoY) (6.3) (9.3) (13.6) (5.3) (-1.2) (14.2)
Expenditure2/ 2,511 2,736 650 551 433 173
(%YoY) (4.8) (9.0) (18.2) (-1.7) (20.2) (-24.2)
Budgetary B/L -304 -324 99 52 -278 31
Non-Budgetary B/L -40 -58 -23 31 48 -66
Cash B/L (CG) -344 -382 76 83 -231 -35
Net Financing 275 397 -44 123 25 -7
Treasury B/L 426 441 235 441 236 193
Billion baht
Central Government Current Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
131 BnTHB (+4.3%YoY)
Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
25 BnTHB (+14.7%YoY)Billion baht
Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Cash basis 2/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets,
except loan repayments
Fiscal Position
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2014-16 FY2016 FY2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2014-16 FY2016 FY2017
Sources: Department of Tourism, Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary
5
Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
TotalChina (share 27%)Malaysia (share 11%)Asia ex. CN MY (share 29%)Europe ex. Russia (share 16%)Russia (share 3%)
Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100)
20152016
H1 Q3 Oct NovP YTD
No. of tourists (’000) 29,883 16,592 8,228 2,256 2,454 29,531
%YoY 20.4 12.0 13.1 0.5 -4.4 9.8
%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - 1.4 -8.8 -1.3 -
%YoY total ex. CN & MY 5.6 9.1 13.7 5.8 5.3 9.6
Tourists Classified by Nations
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Non-durable Index sa, 3mmaService Index* sa, 3mma
Jan 2014 = 100
Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated
6
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Semi-durable Index sa,3mmaDurable Index sa, 3mmaDurable Index sa
Jan 2014 = 100
Private Consumption Indicators
%YoY 20152016 %MoMsa
H1 Q3 Oct NovP NovP
Non-durable index 3.5 3.0 0.9 -0.6 -2.0 -0.1
Semi-durable index 0.7 1.4 1.5 2.5 1.1 -1.3
Durable index -6.7 -2.4 5.6 -2.6 -3.9 0.0
Service index 6.8 7.3 8.7 5.7 3.7E -0.9E
(less) Net tourist spending 25.6 14.5 16.2 1.9 -3.6 -1.4
PCI 1.5 3.1 3.4 2.7 1.6 -0.5
* Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector
Non-durable and Service Indices Durable and Semi-durable Indices
7
P = Preliminary Data
Sources: MOC, NSO, OAE, calculated by BOT
Diffusion Index(Unchanged = 50)
25303540455055
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
AgricultureNov 16 = 33.3
Non-AgricultureNov 16 = 35.9
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Farm Income saFarm Income sa, 3mmaAverage Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma(%YoY) 2015
2016
H1 Q3 Oct Nov
Nominal farm incomeP -9.2 -6.5 11.6 19.5 -0.4
Agricultural productionP -3.5 -6.2 -1.2 21.0 -3.3
Agricultural price -5.9 -0.4 13.0 -1.3 3.0
IndexJan 2014 = 100
Real Income
Consumer Confidence Index
Farm Income
% YoY 20152016 %MoMsa
H1 Q3 Oct NovP NovP
Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -1.0 -7.5 -10.7 -9.4 -8.9 1.1
Construction Materials Index -2.4 -0.9 -3.6 -2.8 -1.9 0.4
Real Imports of Capital Goods -0.8 -1.1 -1.9 -7.3 -5.7 1.0
Real Domestic Machinery Sales 9.2 6.0 3.3 4.9 7.1E 0.5E
Car Sales for Investment -6.2 3.4 -0.8 -12.2 -16.6 -2.7
PII 0.9 0.9 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 0.4
Capacity Utilization (sa) 65.8 65.6 64.5 66.3 67.7
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)
8
Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT E = Estimated data
Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction 1,000 m2
9mmaIndex sa, 3mma(Jan 2014=100)
Index sa , 3mma(Jan 2014 = 100)
Private Investment Indicators
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Sales for Investment
-120-80-40
04080
120160
Jan2012
Jul Jan2013
Jul Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Debt Equity Business credits (SA) 3MMA
Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value.
Sources of Corporate Financing Bn baht
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Rent (21.1%)Food & Beverage (24.6%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (54.3%)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Raw food (15.5%)
Energy (11.4%)
Core (73.1%)
9
Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT
Core Inflation ContributionHeadline Inflation Contribution%YoY %YoY
Nov0.60% Nov
0.72%
% 20152016
H1 Q3 Oct Nov
Unemployment rate (sa)
0.9 1.0 0.9(0.9)
1.2(1.1)
1.0(1.0)
Employed persons (%YoY)
-0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -2.5 -1.2
Underemployment rate 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6
Labor Market Indicators EmploymentThousand persons sa, 3mma
Thousand persons sa, 3mma
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS)Agriculture (sa) (RHS)
Balance of Payments
10
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Billion USD 2015P2016P
Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct NovE YTD
Trade Balance 26.8 11.8 8.3 9.0 1.8 2.8 33.7
Exports (f.o.b.) 214.1 52.7 51.9 54.9 17.6 18.9 196.0
%YoY -5.6 -1.5 -2.5 0.4 -4.3 10.1 -0.5
Imports (f.o.b.) 187.2 40.9 43.6 45.9 15.8 16.1 162.3
%YoY -10.6 -14.7 -7.8 -2.4 7.4 2.5 -6.0
Net Services, Income & Transfers 5.3 6.0 0.1 1.4 1.1 0.4 9.0
Current Account 32.1 17.9 8.4 10.4 2.9 3.2 42.7
Capital and Financial Account -17.1 -0.3 -3.1 -9.1 -3.1 -4.1 -19.6
Overall Balance 5.9 13.8 3.9 0.8 -0.5 -1.6 16.3
Net Financial Flows
11
Millions of USD 2015P 2016P
Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct NovE YTD1. Assets -5,357 -3,110 -5,621 -7,411 -1,376 -1,343 -18,860TDI -4,991 -4,391 -3,872 -2,945 19 -308 -11,497
- Equity -6,063 -3,374 -2,363 -2,223 -336 -379 -8,674Thai Portfolio investment -3,817 -834 1,316 -2,816 -613 -1,162 -4,109
- Equity security investment -3,398 341 -423 -1,321 -273 -307 -1,984- Debt security investment -419 -1,174 1,739 -1,495 -340 -855 -2,125
Loans -3,063 122 908 -124 -7 154 1,054Other Investments 6,514 1,993 -3,973 -1,526 -775 -27 -4,309
- Trade credits -1,547 1,113 -254 -2,170 400 -19 -9302. Liabilities -11,745 2,810 2,559 -1,685 -1,711 -2,720 -747FDI 9,004 2,022 1,696 -3,306 557 2,019 2,987
- Equity 5,742 -2,497 1,120 635 325 1,848 1,431Foreign Portfolio investment -12,691 2,590 -419 5,304 -1,134 -4,429 1,911
- Equity security investment -8,969 544 -877 3,168 -507 -2,363 -34- Debt security investment -3,722 2,045 458 2,135 -627 -2,066 1,946
Loans -2,148 -742 2,707 -1,349 -1,041 286 -138Other Investments -5,909 -1,059 -1,425 -2,334 -93 -597 -5,508
- Trade credits -390 -330 -104 -1,089 324 -59 -1,258Total Financial Flows (1+2) -17,102 -300 -3,062 -9,096 -3,086 -4,063 -19,607
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg
12
Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg
%
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2JPY EUR MYR IDR INR PHP SGD KRW THB CNY TWD
30 Nov compared to end of Oct 201623 Dec compared to end of Nov 2016
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul
NEER REER USDTHB
Index (Jan 2014 = 100)
% p.a.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
30-D
ec-1
515
-Jan-
1629
-Jan-
1612
-Feb
-16
29-F
eb-1
614
-Mar
-16
28-M
ar-1
612
-Apr
-16
29-A
pr-1
618
-May
-16
2-Ju
n-16
16-Ju
n-16
30-Ju
n-16
15-Ju
l-16
2-Au
g-16
17-A
ug-1
631
-Aug
-16
14-S
ep-1
628
-Sep
-16
12-O
ct-1
627
-Oct
-16
10-N
ov-1
624
-Nov
-16
9-De
c-16
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Q120
16Q2
2016
Q3Oc
t-16
Nov-
16
Nov 20163.3
Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes
Exchange Rate Movement Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)
Latest data 23 Dec 2016
(Negative values denote currency depreciation compared to USD)
Dec 2016 (Average data until 23 Dec)THB Appreciation