Nuclear Energy and the Perception of Risk in GermanyIfD Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach Thomas Petersen Nuclear Energy and the Perception of Risk in Germany Jahrestagung Kerntechnik

IfD Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach

Thomas Petersen

Nuclear Energy and the Perception of Riskin Germany

Jahrestagung Kerntechnik 2013

Berlin, Hotel Estrel


1. Risks and Probabilities


Risk of being robbed in your own home at least onceduring your lifetime 0.3

Risk of dying of cancer ...................................................................................0.25

Risk of dying in a traffic accident ....................................................................0.01

Risk of being murdered...................................................................................0.001

Risk of being killed in a natural catastrophe ...................................................0.0001

Risk of being struck by lightning .....................................................................0.00006

Risk of dying of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease(in England, as of the year 2000, if the epidemic continues at the present rate for the next 80 years)........................................................0.00005

Probability of winning the lottery jackpot, if you play once a week for 80 years................................................................................0.00003

Risks in Life

Sources: Federal Office of Statistics, Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), FDP Regional Office in Lower Saxony, Wikipedia


QUESTION: "Do you play the lottery regularly or only now and then, or don't you normally play the lottery at all?"

Population16 and over

%

Play the lottery........................................................................42

Don't play the lottery...............................................................57

No response ............................................................................1

___100

Lottery Players

Source: Allensbach Archives, IfD Survey 10079, September 2011


QUESTION to all lottery players: "When there is a large lottery jackpot, do you play the lottery more than you normally would, do you spend more on thethe lottery, or don't you do that?"

Lottery players

%

Play more, spend more on the lottery ....................................39

Don't do that ...........................................................................58

No response ............................................................................3

___100

Playing the Lottery More When There Is a Large Jackpot



QUESTION: "Have you ever worried recently about any of the things shown here on this list? (Presentation of a list)

Fears - I


Becoming terminally ill, getting can-cer or AIDS

A drop in my income, my personalwealth

Aggressive youths attacking me onthe street

Being injured in a traffic accident

Someone breaking into my apart-ment or house

Being mugged

The consequences of genetic engi-neering (...)

Being robbed

Becoming highly indebted, no longerbeing able to pay back my debts

44

37

36

30

26

26

25

23

21


QUESTION: "Have you ever worried recently about any of the things shown here on this list? (Presentation of a list)

Fears - II


That my work will become too muchfor me

An accident at a nuclear power planthere in the vicinity

Contracting a serious infection whilein the hospital

That preservatives in our food willmake me ill

Being swindled out of my savings bya con artist

Becoming more and more nervousbecause of everyday noise

Being cheated when shopping

Being sickened by spoiled or con-taminated food

That car exhaust fumes are makingme sick

21

20

20

18

14

14

13

13

5


Frequency with which the terms "BSE," "dioxin-contaminated," "swine flu" and "asbestos-contaminated" were used in reports published in –

Alarmism in Media Reporting from 2000 - 2010

Source: Walter Krämer: Die Angst der Woche. Warum wir uns vor den falschen Dingen fürchten. Munich: Piper, 2011, p. 48

Süddeutsche Zeitung

Frankfurter Rundschau

Corriere de la Sera

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

The Guardian

The Times

Le Monde

El Pais

Gazeta Wyborcza

La Repubblica

Le Figaro

4221

3864

3822

2856

2274

2009

1997

1367

1297

1177

1014


2. Cultural Pessimism and

Skepticism of Technology


QUESTION: "People have different opinions on whether life in current times is moredangerous than it was 20 or 30 years ago. What do you think: is life in our timesnow more dangerous on the whole than it was 20 or 30 years ago, or is it lessdangerous, or hasn't there been very much change in that regard?"

Total Western Easternpopulation Germany Germany

% % %

Life now is more dangerous ................................49 47........................58

Life now is less dangerous..................................12 13.........................5

Hasn't been very much change...........................31 32........................30

Undecided, don't know.........................................8 8..........................7___ ___ ___100 100 100

The Majority Believes Life Is Becoming More Dangerous



QUESTION: "Do you believe that technical progress entails more security or more risks?"


%

More security..........................................................................25

More risks...............................................................................43

Undecided ..............................................................................32

___100

Progress as a Risk

Source: Allensbach Archives, IfD Survey 10071, May 2011


QUESTION: "Do you believe in progress—I mean, that humanity is constantly advancing towards a better future—or don't you believe that?"

- Western Germany -

Belief in Progress

Source: Allensbach Archives, IfD Surveys

1967 1972 1975 1977 1980 1983 1985 1988 1989 1990 1993 1999 2000 2001 2003 2007 2011

20

40

60

Believe in progress Don't believe that


QUESTION: "If you could have it your way, should we generally spend more money on scientific progress or on improving the social security system here in Germany?"

What Is More Important: Research or Social Security?


Total pop. 16-29 yrs. old 30-44 yrs. old 45-59 yrs. old 60 and over

3239

32 3327

54

4552 52

61

On scientific progress On improving the social security system


QUESTION: "Two people are talking here about technical progress. Which of the two comes closest to saying what you think too, the one above or the one below?" (Presentation of an illustration)


%In my opinion, we have to be willing to acceptcertain risks when employing new technicaldevelopments. You can never completelyeliminate all risks ....................................................................35

I take a different view. Even if they entail only aslight risk for people, it would be better to dowithout new technical developments......................................52

Undecided ..............................................................................13

___100

Doing Without Progress Is Better Than Accepting Risks



QUESTION: "Many people worry that research can sometimes obtain dangerous results. If it were possible to ban certain kinds of research, would you be for or againstthat?"


%

For ..........................................................................................67

Against ...................................................................................16

Undecided ..............................................................................17

___100

Banning Research



QUESTION: "Various fields of research are shown here on these cards (...). In which areas do youthink research should be stopped completely?" (Presentation of a stack of cards)

Desire to Ban Research – I


Cloning living creatures

Military research

Genetic engineering for agriculture

Research with embryos

Nuclear physics

Chemical pest control

Artificial intelligence

Developing new preservatives

80

72

51

47

36

36

34

28


QUESTION: "Various fields of research are shown here on these cards (...). In which areas do youthink research should be stopped completely?" (Presentation of a stack of cards)

Desire to Ban Research – II


Genetic engineering for medical pur-poses

Genetics

Archaeology

Ethnology

Environmentally-friendly technologies

Alternative medicine, natural reme-dies

Causes and consequences of climatechange

Cancer research

24

17

16

14

2

1

1

0


3. The Allure of the Irrational


QUESTION: "I would like to tell you now about something that happenedrecently at a panel discussion on the safety of nuclear powerplants. A few experts were talking about the risks, the currentstate of research and safety measures at nuclear powerplants. Suddenly, someone in the audience jumps up andshouts something. If you could read this please." (Presen- tation of an illustration) – "Would you say this person is rightor isn't he right?"


% % %

He's right....................................65 65..................64

He's not right..............................13 12..................21

Impossible to say.......................22 23..................15___ ___ ___100 100 100

Nuclear Energy Is a Morally Loaded Issue

Source: Allensbach Archives, IfD Survey 10058, August 2010

„Was interessieren mich Zahlen und Statistiken in diesem Zu-sammenhang. Wie kann man überhaupt so kalt über ein Themareden, bei dem es um mensch-liche Schicksale geht!“

"What do I care about numbersand statistics in this context!How can you even talk so coldlyabout such an issue when ourhealth and our lives are at stake!"


QUESTION: "I would like to tell you now about something that happenedrecently at a panel discussion on genetically modified foods:A scientist was explaining that studies had shown thatgenetically modified foods pose no risks to human beings. Suddenly, someone in the audience jumps up and shoutssomething. If you could read this please." (Presentation of an illustration) – "Would you agree with this person or wouldn't you agree?"


% % %

Would agree with him ................57 59..................49

Would not agree ........................19 17..................26


"But I'm scared!"



"What do I care about numbersand statistics in this context!Genetically modified foodsjust scare me!"


QUESTION: "I would like to tell you now about something that happenedrecently at a panel discussion on genetically modified foods:A scientist was explaining that studies had shown thatgenetically modified foods pose no risks to human beings. Suddenly, someone in the audience jumps up and shoutssomething. If you could read this please." (Presentation of an illustration) – "Which of the two spontaneously seemsmore appealing to you: the scientist or the audience member?"


% % %

The scientist .............................14 14..................13

The audience member...............63 63..................66


Irrationality Is More Appealing Than Factual Arguments



"What do I care about numbersand statistics in this context!Genetically modified foodsjust scare me!"


QUESTION: "Someone said to us recently: 'In politics, decisions are made all too oftenbased on factual arguments, and the fears and concerns of the population are overlooked in the process.' Is that what you think too, or isn't that what you think?"


%

That's what I think too.............................................................69

That's not what I think.............................................................14

Undecided / no response .......................................................17

___100

"In politics, decisions are made all too often based on factual arguments"



4. Consequences of Fukushima


QUESTION: "How threatened do you feel by the accident at the Japanese nuclear power plant inFukushima? Perhaps you could tell me using the boxes shown here on this sheet.The large box at the top would mean you feel very strongly threatened, while thesmall box at the bottom would mean you feel hardly or not at all threatened. Whichbox would you choose?" (Presentation of an illustration)


%

A: Very strongly threatened .......12

B: ..............................................25

C: ...............................................35

D: Hardly, not at all threatened..24

Impossible to say........................5___100

Threatened?


A

B

C

D

} 37


QUESTION: "Do you have the impression that sufficient safety measures have beenimplemented at our nuclear power plants here in Germany, or do you fearthat the safety measures are not sufficient?"

Confidence in the Safety of German Nuclear Power Plants

SOURCE: Allensbach Archives, IfD Surveys 4073, 10070

1986 2011

20

40

60

36

21

41

58

Safety measures are sufficientSafety measures are not sufficient


QUESTION 1986 und 2006: "What do you think: could an accident like the one in Chernobylhappen here too, or are the nuclear power plants in Germany so safe that that is unlikely?"

QUESTION 2011: "...accident like the one in Fukushima..."

Chernobyl or Fukushima in Germany Too?

Source: Allensbach Archives, IfD Surveys 4073, 10070

1986 2006 2011

20

40

6052

47

59

30 3126

Could happen here too That's not likely


5. Media Tenor and Public Opinion


The Media Tenor and Public Opinion on Nuclear Energy

Source: Media Tenor; Allensbach Archives, IfD Surveys

2001 2007 2010 20110

20

40

60

80

Percentage of negatively biased statements on nuclear energy on ARD and ZDFPercentage of Germans who reject nuclear energy


Fields of experts who were interviewed on the topic of Japan on the ARD, ZDF and RTLnews programs in the time from March 1 – 20, 2011

After Fukushima: Which Experts Are Getting a Chance to Speak? – I

Source: Media Tenor

Specialists in radiation medicine

Chemists

Nuclear physicists

Journalists

Politicians

Meteorologists

Geophysicists

Representatives of relief organiza-tions

Students

22

17

17

11

11

6

6

6

6


Position taken in the debate on nuclear energy by experts who were interviewed on the topic ofJapan on the ARD, ZDF and RTL news programs in the time from March 1 – 20, 2011

After Fukushima: Which Experts Are Getting a Chance to Speak? – II

Source: Media Tenor

Experts who were already declaredopponents of nuclear energy before

Fukushima

Experts who had no definitive attitudetowards nuclear energy

Experts who were already declaredsupporters of nuclear energy before

Fukushima

53

47

0


Position taken in the debate on nuclear energy by natural scientists who were interviewed on thetopic of Japan on the ARD, ZDF and RTL news programs in the time from March 1 – 20, 2011

After Fukushima: Which Experts Are Getting a Chance to Speak? – III

Source: Media Tenor

Experts who were already declaredopponents of nuclear energy before

Fukushima

Experts who had no definitive attitudetowards nuclear energy

Experts who were already declaredsupporters of nuclear energy before

Fukushima

73

27

0


Degree of support for nuclear energy on a scale from -9 to +9

USA 1982: Journalists and Scientists on Nuclear Energy

Source: Stanley Rothman, S. Robert Lichter: "The Nuclear Debate. Scientists, Media and the Public." In: Public Opinion Aug./Sept. 1982, pp. 47-52. Here p. 51.

Nuclear energy experts

Energy experts

Total scientists

Science journalists

Journalists reporting in the qualitypress

Science journalists at the New YorkTimes, Washington Post and TV

broadcasters

TV reporters and producers

TV anchormen/women

7,9

5,1

3,3

1,3

1,2

0,5

-1,9

-3,3


Thank you!

PD Dr. Thomas PetersenInstitut für Demoskopie AllensbachRadolfzeller Straße 878476 Allensbach

Tel.: 07533 805 191Fax: 07533 3048Email: [email protected]: www.ifd-allensbach.de

Documents

Nuclear Energy and the Perception of Risk in GermanyIfD Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach Thomas Petersen Nuclear Energy and the Perception of Risk in Germany Jahrestagung Kerntechnik