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NYSE:MON. MII Robel Chiappini November 4 th , 2008. Agenda. Business Overview Competition Investment Overview Valuation & Key Stats Risks VAR Questions?. Business Overview. Global provider of agricultural products for farmers – seeds, biotech traits, and herbicides - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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NYSE:MONMII
Robel ChiappiniNovember 4th, 2008
Agenda
• Business Overview• Competition• Investment Overview• Valuation & Key Stats• Risks• VAR• Questions?
Business Overview
• Global provider of agricultural products for farmers – seeds, biotech traits, and herbicides
• $11.3 Billion in revenues for FY2008– Half of total sales came abroad
Business Overview cont.Financial Review
Millions $ 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
Total Revenue 11365.00 8349.00 7065.00 6275.00 5423.00
Revenue Growth 36.12% 18.17% 12.59% 15.71% 10.13%
Gross Margin 54.35% 50.66% 48.73% 47.73% 46.60%
Net Profit Margin 17.81% 11.89% 9.75% 4.06% 4.92%
Free Cash Flow 772.00
(57.00)
1,049.00
70.00
999.00
Business Overview Cont.Seeds and Genomics
• $6.3 Billion in sales last year– Corn and Soybeans account for 75% of sales
• Germplasm– Hybrid corn, soybean, tomato, melon, and
cucumber seeds
• Biotechnology Traits– Enable crops to protect themselves from insects
and herbicides
• Seen as driver of future growth for company
Business Overview cont.Agricultural Productivity
• $5 Billion in Revenue for last year• Roundup brand herbicides – 82% of sales
Business Overview cont.Sales by Segment
2008
Total Revenue $ 11,365.00
Seed and Genomics 6,369.00
Corn 55.6%
Soybean 18.4%
Cotton 7.1%
Vegetables 11.7%
Agricultural 4,996.00
Roundup 81.9%
Business Overview Cont.Gross Margin Breakdown
2008 2007 2006MON Gross Margin 54.4% 50.1% 48.2%Seed and Genomics 60.6% 60.7% 61.2%
Corn 61.4% 61.3% 56.8%*Soybean* 61.8% 65.3% 69.5%
*Cotton* 69.6% 83.7% 81.1%Vegetables 53.0% 43.6% 52.0%
Agricultural 46.4% 35.3% 32.8%Roundup 48.3% 33.3% 28.6%
Competition
• Global and Regional competition– Most of seed competitors are also licensees of
MON’s germplasm or biotechnology traits
• Roundup is market leader with great brand recognition– Integrated into seed business: Roundup Ready
Investment Overview
• World food demand
• Industry Leadership
• Management
World Food DemandIncreased Corn and Soybean Demand
• Income + Population = Need More Food• 25% increase in U.S. corn production by 2017• 30% increase in Soybean related products
World Food DemandCloser Look at Soybeans
• Most of Soybean production growth will come from Brazil and Argentina– MON’s existing and growing presence in both
Nations: 20% of 2008 sales
World Food DemandIncreased Demand for Livestock
• More Wealth = More Meat• 27% increase in U.S. meat exports• How is this livestock going to be supported?– Main ingredients used in commercially prepared
feed are corn and soybeans
World Food DemandLimited Supply of Farmland
• 9% increase in farmland across U.S.• Corn and Soybean producing states
• IL – 15.5% • IN – 11.3% • NE – 18.7% • IA – 17.6%• MN – 11.5%• ND – 20.7%• SD – 17.7%
World Food DemandLimited Supply of Farmland
• “Industry experts” – prices stable• Increased interest in agricultural real estate• Safe tangible investments poised to increase in
popularity
• “Perfect Storm” for Monsanto– Need for more efficient seeds with higher crop yields
Industry LeadershipContinued focus on R&D
• $3.5 Billion invested over past 5 years
• BASF joint R&D collaboration– $1.5 Billion to focus on high-yielding and high
tolerance crops
Industry LeadershipCompetitive Advantage
• 1st generation vs. 2nd and 3rd generation
• Higher quality seeds = higher prices
• Patent protection through 2025
• 35% top line growth in Roundup business on price increases
Industry LeadershipProduct Pipeline
• Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans• YieldGard VT Triple Pro• YieldGard VT Pro• SmartStax Corn• Emerging Market Penetration– YieldGard stacked w/ Roundup Ready Corn 2– YieldGard Corn
Management• CEO (2003-Present): Hugh Grant–M.S. degree in Molecular Biology and
Agricultural Zoology, MBA–With the company since 1998
• EVP, Strategy and Ops (2007-Present): Carl Casale– B.S. degree in agricultural economics, MBA –With company since 2003
ManagementAggressive Acquisitions
• De Ruiter• DPL• Semillas Cristiani• Agroeste• Aly Particpacoes
Valuation and Key Stats• PPS: $87.34 (close monday)• Mkt Cap: 48.76B• P/E: 25.31• 52 week range: ($68.02-$145.80)• Div. Yield: 1.1%• A+ and A-1 short term• Trading at 5 times book value• ROE: 23.78%• Cash: $1.6B
Valuation and Key Stats Cont.2 year w/ 100 day moving average
Risks
• Tight Credit
• Regulatory Approval
• Negative Consumer perceptions
VAR• Melvin Woodson, Loan Originator, Country
Mortgages Farm Credit– How are you helping farmers?– Slowdown in farming?– Historical Perspective?
• Anonymous, Fed. Gov. with industry expertise– Market turmoil affect on farming credit?– Rates?– Is it hard to secure credit now?
Questions?