Oakland Chamber Poll PowerPoint

7/27/2019 Oakland Chamber Poll PowerPoint

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Oakland Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce Breakfast

October 2, 2013


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2

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Methodology

Telephone survey of Likely November 2014 voters in

Oakland

500 completed interviews

City-wide margin of error of +/- 4.73 percentage

points

Oversampling in Council Districts 2, 4, & 6 in order to

reach a sample size of 95 in each of these districts

Margin of error in Districts 2, 4, 6 +/- 10.0

percentage points

Conducted September 24 29, 2013

Trained, professional interviewers

As with any opinion research, the

release of selected figures from this

report without the analysis that

explains their meaning would be

damaging to EMC. Therefore, EMCreserves the right to correct any

misleading release of this data in

any medium through the release of

correct data or analysis.

Please note that due to rounding,

percentages may not add up to

exactly 100%


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3


Key Findings: Quality of Life in Oakland

Direction of the City

Only one-quarter of voters feel the City is headed in the right direction

Over half feel less safe than they did a year ago

Even so, voters like Oakland and think its a good place to live

Some of the best things about living in Oakland are the culture, diversity,

and the weather The worst thing about living in Oakland is the crime

Voters in Oakland frequently ride BART, visit parks and open spaces, libraries,and shop/dine in Uptown and Downtown

Voters are generally favorable toward new business (national retail stores

too!), and encouraging companies to move to Oakland Support for renewing Measure Y is below necessary threshold, but voters are

very favorable toward components of measure (indicating that they just mightnot know that much about it)


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4


Key Findings: Quans destiny

Mayor Jean Quansvitals are weak

One-quarter of voters feel favorable toward her,

compared to almost two-thirds who feel unfavorable

(and her ratings have gotten worse since last year)

More than three-quarters of voters give her anegative job rating

Less than one-fifth of voters would reelect her if the

election were today


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Voter Mood


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6


Just over one-quarter (27%) of voters think the City is headed

in the right direction

Do you think things in the City of Oakland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel

that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? (Q6)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sep-99

Sep-00

Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Right direction Wrong track

47%

27%


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7


The number of voters who feel unsafe continues to rise

Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland than you did a year or two ago, or would you say

you feel less safe? (Q7)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sep-99

Sep-00

Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Safer Less Safe

55%

13%


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Voters in District 6 are most pessimistic

27% 28% 22% 24%

25%35%

24%12%

47%37%

54%

64%

Citywide CCD 2 CCD 4 CCD 6

Right direction Don't know Wrong track

13% 12% 13% 13%

32% 39% 30% 29%

55%49%

57% 59%


Safer Same/Don't know Less safe


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Priority Issues


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10


80%

75%

69%

57%

44%

39%

38%

35%

35%

34%

28%

18%

11%

12%

20%

35%

30%

39%

33%

34%

31%

44%

36%

33%

4%

3%

4%

2%

10%

6%

11%

6%

22%

4%

12%

6%

2%

3%

4%

4%

11%

9%

9%

10%

8%

10%

10%

21%

4%

6%

4%

2%

6%

7%

9%

15%

4%

8%

14%

22%

Public education (Q19)

Police services (Q11)

Economic development and job creation (Q20)

Road repair and maintenance (Q13)

Preventing illegal dumping (Q15)

Libraries (Q12)

Neighborhood blight (Q17)

Graffiti prevention and removal (Q16)

Senior services (Q14)

Parks and recreation (Q9)

Fire services (Q10)

Festivals and cultural events (Q18)

Great need Some need (Should be less/DK) Little need No real need

Eighty percent of voters say public education is in GREAT need of

additional funding

I am going to read a short list of public services in Oakland. For each one, please tell me if you think there is a

great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding for that

service. (Q9-Q20)


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78%

81%

64%

67%

88%

88%

78%

80%

92%

88%

66%

66%

4%

2%

12%

11%

3%

3%

6%

4%

2%

1%

22%

18%

18%

17%

24%

22%

9%

9%

16%

15%

6%

11%

12%

16%

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

Parksand

recreation

(Q9)

Fire

serv

ices

(Q10)

Police

services

(Q11)

Libraries

(Q12)

Road

repairand

maintena

nce(Q13)

Senior

services

(Q14)

Great/some need (Less/DK) Little/no need

Need for police funding is same as last year, but intensity has

increased

I am going to read a short list of public services in Oakland. For each one, please tell me if you think there is a

great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding for that

service. (Q9-Q20)

*In 2012, 79% of voters rated public education as VERY important to the future of Oakland

(66% great need, 22% some need)

(75% great need, 12% some need)


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Attitudes toward business


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53%

45%

38%

28%

26%

34%

32%

38%

4%

4%

6%

7%

10%

12%

14%

20%

7%

5%

11%

8%

Requiring affordable housing be part of

any new housing development project

(Q24)

Offering tax incentives to encourage

companies to move to Oakland (Q25)

Allowing more national retail stores to

locate in Oakland (Q22)

Allowing more parking structures to be

built to accommodate new

development (Q23)

Strongly favor Somewhat favor (DK) Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Voters are favorable toward affordable housing, and bringing new

business to Oakland

Next some ideas about economic growth and job creation. Do you strongly favor, somewhat

favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose(Q22-Q25)


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70%

58%

66%

72%

79%

88%

6%

5%

7%

6%

4%

3%

25%

36%

28%

23%

17%

10%

2013

2012

2013

2012

2013

2012

A

llowingmore

nationalretail

sto

restolocatein

O

akland(Q22)*

Allowingmore

parkingstructures

tobebuiltto

accommodate

newdevelopment

(Q23)

Offeringtax

incentivesto

encourage

companiesto

movetoOakland

(Q25)

Total Favor (DK) Total Oppose

Voters are more favorable to national retail stores (rather than

chain stores)



*In 2012, this item read Allowing more chain stores to locate in Oakland.


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70%

61%

67%

84%

66%62%

65%

73%

79%

83%

79%

74%

79%

77%

81%

89%

6%

9%

6%

7%

7%2%

6%

7%

4%

1%

5%

4%

2%

5%

2%

25%

30%

27%

10%

28%35%

29%

20%

17%

17%

20%

20%

17%

21%

14%

9%

Citywide

CCD 2

CCD 4

CCD 6

CitywideCCD 2

CCD 4

CCD 6

Citywide

CCD 2

CCD 4

CCD 6

Citywide

CCD 2

CCD 4

CCD 6

Allowing

morenational

retailstores

tolocatein

Oakland

(Q22)

Allowing

moreparkin

g

structuresto

bebuiltto

accommodate

new

developmen

t

(Q23)

Re

quiring

aff

ordable

housingbe

partofany

new

housing

development

proj

ect(Q24)

Offeringtax

incentivesto

encourage

companiesto

moveto

Oakland

(Q25)

Total Favor (DK) Total Oppose

District 6 is especially favorable toward national retail stores




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Quality of life in Oakland

O kl d di it th d lt b t thi


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Oaklands diversity, weather, and culture are best things

about living here

23%

19%

11%

9%

6%

5%

5%

4%

2%

1%

3%

8%

1%

3%

Diversity

Weather

Proximity/Location

The people

Love living here

Cultural events

It's beautiful

Affordable/Home ownership

Restaurants/stores

Public transit

Nothing good to say

Other

No/None/Nothing

Don't Know

What would you say is the BEST thing about living in Oakland?(OPEN ENDED, ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE) (Q4)

M th t thi d l t d i t thi b t


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More than two-thirds volunteered crime as worst thing about

living in Oakland

69%

6%

3%

2%2%

2%

1%

1%

1%10%

2%

1%

Crime

City Government

Lack of police

City finances

Bad reputation

Poverty

Everything

Drugs

ParkingOther

No/None/Nothing

(DK)

What would you say is the WORST thing about living in Oakland?(OPEN ENDED, ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE) (Q4)

S t t f t O kl d i ll t d


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Seventy percent of voters say Oakland is an excellent or good

place to live

21% 49% 2% 20% 8%

Excellent Good (Don't know) Only fair Poor

How would you rate Oakland as a place to live? Would you say it is an excellent, good, only fair,

or poor place to live? (Q8)

70%


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Voters in District 2 are especially happy to live in Oakland

21%

31%

25%

14%

49%

45%

45%

44%

2%

1%

2%

1%

20%

17%

19%

28%

8%

5%

8%

14%

Citywide

CCD 2

CCD 4

CCD 6

Excellent Good (Don't know) Only fair Poor


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Support is mixed for keeping local sports teams in the area

Extremely

important, 29%

Very important,

21%

Somewhat

important, 24%

Not at all

important, 24%

Thinking about the future of Oakland, how important is it to you that we keep the As, Raiders,

and Warriors in Oaklandextremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not at

all important? (Q21)

Important

50%

Not

Important

48%

Nearly two thirds of voters in District 6 support keeping


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Nearly two-thirds of voters in District 6 support keeping

teams here

51% 48% 48%

63%

1% 2%

2%

48% 50% 52%

35%


Somewhat/Not at all

(DK)

Extremely/very

important

Thinking about the future of Oakland, how important is it to you that we keep the As, Raiders,

and Warriors in Oaklandextremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not at

all important? (Q21)

Many voters have experience with taking BART visiting parks


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Many voters have experience with taking BART, visiting parks,

and shopping/dining in Downtown & Uptown

M th h lf (52%) f t id th h t k BART t l t 12


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24


15%

11%

36%

15%

33%

25%

9%

11%

11%

15%

15%

16% 6%

23%

32%

19%

40%

26%

32%

52%

46%

34%

29%

26%

21%

Rode BART (Q54)

Visited an Oakland park or open space area (Q47)

Read the Oakland Tribune online or in print (Q53)

Shopped or dined in Downtown Oakland (Q52)

Used Oakland public libraries or their services (Q48)

Shopped or dined in Uptown (Q44)

Never 1 or 2 times (DK) 3 to 12 times More than 12 times

In the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household

member has done each of the following activities? (Q40-Q57)

More than half (52%) of voters said they have taken BART at least 12

times in the last year; 46% have visited a park or open space area


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25


32%

23%

29%

26%

85%

55%

15%

26%

24%

25%

5%

20%

35%

38%

36%

35%

4%

19%

17%

13%

12%

12%

6%

5%

Hosted a visitor for an overnight stay (Q56)

Shopped or dined in Jack London Square (Q43)

Flown into or out of Oakland Airport (Q57)

Attended a cultural event in Oakland (Q45)

Used Oakland senior services (Q49)

Attended an As game (Q40)




Fifty-five percent of voters have never been to an As game


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58%

67%

53%

82%

80%

85%

24%

20%

26%

9%

13%

12%

14%

10%

18%

6%

6%

2%

4%

4%

3%

2%

1%

1%

Visited the Oakland Zoo (Q51)

Used services in person at Oakland City Hall (Q50)

Attended Oaklands First Fridays Art Festival (Q55)

Attended a Raiders game (Q41)

Attended a Warriors game (Q42)

Attend the Childrens Holiday parade in Oakland

(Q46)




Attendance at NFL and NBA games is low

Voters under 50 are more likely to ride BART and shop/dine


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50%

41%

38%

26%

Rode BART (Q54)



Shopped or dined in downtown Oakland (Q52)

67%

56%

40%

31%

Rode BART (Q54)


Shopped or dined in downtown Oakland (Q52)


Voters under 50 are more likely to ride BART, and shop/dine

downtown

% Who does each activity frequently

18-49 years old (44%)

50-64 years old (31%)

49%

34%

29%

25%



Rode BART (Q54)


Over 65 (25%)


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Attitudes toward public safety

Support for Measure Y renewal is at 48% but components of


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29


48%

75%

84%

76%

57%

21%

4%

4%

5%

13%

30%

22%

13%

20%

30%

Measure Y renewal

Raises revenue to hire more police officers (Q27)

Expand violence prevention social programs for youth

(Q28)

Increase paramedics and emergency fire personnel

(Q29)

Reauthorizes the PT rate of $88/yr for a single family

residential property and maintains the 8.5% comm.

pkg surcharge (Q30)

Total Yes (Undecided/Don't know) Total No

Support for Measure Y renewal is at 48%, but components of

measure are popular

There are a few different components to Measure Y. I will read some of those components and please tell meif you would vote yes to approve or no to reject each one. (Q27-Q30) (DO NOT RANDOMIZE)

As you may know, in 2004 Oakland voters approved a parking lot and parcel tax, called Measure Y to reduce

crime and increase public safety. Based on what you know now, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject

a renewal of Measure Y at the current tax rates? (Q26)


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More than half (55%) of voters in District 4 support Measure Y

48% 45%55%

43%

21% 27%

22%

19%

30% 28%23%

39%


Total No

(Und)

Total Yes


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Attitudes toward elected officials


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17%

23%

26%

18%

75%

69%

67%

57%

7%

8%

7%

26%

Oakland City Auditor Courtney Ruby (Q33)

Oakland City Council Member Pat Kernighan (Q34)

Oakland City Council Member Libby Schaaf (Q35)

Oakland City Council Member Desley Brooks (Q36)

Favorable (DK) Unfavorable

NowIm going to read you a list of individuals and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a

favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so.

(Q31-Q36)

Local leaders mostly unknown citywide


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23%

48%

26%

54%

18%

31%

69%

40%

67%

39%

57%

42%

8%

12%

7%

8%

26%

27%

Citywide

CCD 2

Citywide

CCD 4

Citywide

CCD 6

OaklandCity

Council

Me

mberPat

Ke

rnighan

(Q34)

OaklandCity

Council

MemberLibby

Schaaf(Q35)

OaklandCity

Council

MemberDesley

Brooks(Q36)

Favorable (DK) Unfavorable



(Q31-Q36)

But are popular within their districts

Three-quarters of voters give the City Council a negative job


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14%

13%

11%

20%

11%

11%

11%

7%

75%

76%

78%

74%

Citywide

CCD 2

CCD 4

CCD 6

Excellent/Good (DK) Only Fair/Poor

Three quarters of voters give the City Council a negative job

rating; ratings similar across the City

How would you rate the overall job the Oakland City Council is doing? (Q38)


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35


24%

36%

14%

11%

62%

53%

2013

2012

Favorable Never Heard/DK Unfavorable

Mayor Quans favorable rating continues to worsen



Mayor Jean Quan


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36


24%

28%

26%

29%

14%

12%

15%

11%

62%

60%

60%

60%

Citywide

CCD 2

CCD 4

CCD 6

Favorable Never Heard/DK Unfavorable

Little difference in her favorable rating by District



Mayor Jean Quan


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37


4% 16% 4% 32% 45%

Excellent Good (DK) Only Fair Poor

More than three-quarters (77%) give Quan a negative job rating

How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? (Q37)

77%


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38


19%

21%

17%

22%

4%

3%

2%

77%

79%

80%

76%

Citywide

CCD 2

CCD 4

CCD 6

Excellent/Good (DK) Only Fair/Poor

Voters in District 4 are especially unimpressed

How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? (Q37)

More than two-thirds (69%) of voters would elect someone else if the election were


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More than two thirds (69%) of voters would elect someone else if the election were

today, including nearly half who said definitely someone else

As you may know, Jean Quan is running for re-election as Mayor of Oakland. If the election were held today

would you definitely vote for Quan, probably vote for Quan, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote

for someone else? (Q39)

5%

13%

23%

46%

13%

Definitely Quan

Probably Quan

Probably Else

Definitely Else

(Dont know/not sure)

18%

69%

Q l i l h h h Ci


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Quans reelect is low throughout the City

18% 21%23% 23%

13%

20%10% 7%

69%

59%

67% 70%


Reelect Quan (DK/Refused) Else


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41


24% 20% 18%

15%

4%13%

62%

77%

69%

Favorable Rating Job Rating Re-Elect

Negative

for Quan

Neutral

Positive

for Quan

By every measure, Quansvitals are weak

O kl d M l f bilit th h th


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Oakland Mayoral favorability, through the years

24%

30%

81%

58%

14%

8%

4%

8%

62%

63%

14%

35%

Quan (2013)

Dellums (2009)

Brown (2000)

Harris (1997)

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable

Source: EMC past polling

O kl d M l j b ti th h th


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Oakland Mayoral job rating, through the years

20%

73%

36%

4%

4%

3%

77%

23%

62%

Quan (2013)

Brown (2000)

Harris (1997)

Excellent/good (DK) Only fair/poor


O kl d M l l t th h th


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44


Oakland Mayoral reelect, through the years

18%

18%

33%

13%

13%

20%

69%

69%

48%

Quan

(2013)

Dellums

(2009)

Harris

(1997)

Reelect (DK/Refused) Else


Voter demographics


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45


Voter demographics

45% Men

55% Women

Lived in Oakland

Less than 2

years (1%)

2-5 years

(12%)

6-10 years

(14%)

11-20 years

(19%)

More than

20 years

(53%)

Employed 57%

Unemployed 7%

Retired

27%Other 9% 43% of those

employed work

in Oakland

(25% of

electorate)

71% Democrats

6% Republicans

23% NPP/Others

44% are 18-49 years old

31% are 50-64

25% are over 65


46/46

Discussion

Documents

Oakland Chamber Poll PowerPoint