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2/6/2013
1
Market knowledge. Insight on trends. Expert forecasts.
OAKLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
Vision 2020Commercial Real Estate Overview
Presented by:
Mike MoranManaging Partner
Cassidy Turley | Office Division
Bay Area Office Market
Total Building Base: 254M Square Feet
Silicon Valley12.6% | $2.91
East Bay Oakland
17.2% | $2.18
East Bay Walnut Creek15.0% | $2.09
East Bay Pleasanton
12.5% | $1.88
Marin16.9% | $2.49
San Mateo13.6% | $3.34
San Francisco8.9% | $3.63
Q4-11 Q4-12
Total Availability SF
34.0M8%
31.5M
Vacancy 13.6%8%
12.4%
Average
Asking (FS)$2.61
8%
$2.81
Gross Abs(4-Quarter Trailing)
36.1M7%
33.5M
Net Abs(4-Quarter Trailing)
7.6M 5.3M
2/6/2013
2
Bay Area Office Market
Vacancy vs. Unemployment Trend
Va
ca
ncy
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t
Post 9-11 Web 2.0 Credit Crisis
Social Media Boom
CapitalBoom
Tech Bust
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Unemployment Vacancy
Bay Area Employment
2/6/2013
3
Bay Area Office Market
Vacancy Comparison
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
San Francisco Peninsula Santa Clara Oakland
Tech…Tech…Tech
2/6/2013
4
Tech…Tech…Tech
Bay Area Office Leases in 2012
77%
8%
13%
2%
Silicon Valley
75%18%
5%
2%
San Francisco
59%
12%
26%
3%
Peninsula
29%18%
24%
29%
East Bay
30% 24%
26%20%
Oakland Market
Technology
Professional & Business Services
Life Science Medical
Government & Non Profit
2/6/2013
5
Tech Migration to San Francisco
SoMa Tech Transactions
502K SF | 216M$3.92 FS Eff. $75 TI | Q1-12
238K SF | 180M$5.40 FS Eff. $100 TI | Q1-12
170K SF | 129M$4.41 IG Eff. $42 TI | Q2-12
160K SF | 120M$4.31 FS Eff. $95 TI | Q2-12
98K SF | 96M$4.72 IG Eff. $60 TI | Q2-12
1275 Market StDolby Labs354K SF$110M | $310/SF
246K SF | 132MCONFIDENTIAL
83K SF | 120M$4.49 FS Eff. $60 TI | Q2-12
370K SF | 72M$3.92 FS Eff. $75 TI | Q3-1279K SF | 91M
$3.54 FS Eff. $75 TI | Q1-12
73K SF | 66MCONFIDENTIAL
2/6/2013
6
92 Corridor Transactions
457K SF | 144M$3.18 NNN Eff. $7.50 TI | Q3-11
210K SF | 36M$2.17 NNN Eff. As Is | Q4-11
120K SF | 96M$2.67 NNN Eff. $25 TI | Q3-11
98K SF | 84M$3.61 FS Eff. $35 TI | Q4-11
88K SF | 120M$2.37 NNN Eff. $5 TI | Q1-12
80K SF | 84M$3.61 FS Eff. $5 | Q4-11
303 Velocity WyGilead360K SF$118M | $605/SF
Pac ShoresINFA296K SF$136M | $f60/SF
582K SF | 139M$3.63 NNN Eff. $65 TI | Q3-12
Silicon Valley Transactions
448K SF | 120MConfidentialQ2-11
208K SF | 120M$5.39 NNN Eff. $60 TI | Q1-12
202K SF | 120M$4.88 NNN Eff. As Is | Q3-12
184K SF | 144M$4.73 NNN Eff. $60 TI | Q2-11
97K SF | 84M$3.06 NNN Eff. $20 TI | Q2-11
157K SF | 120MConfidentialQ4-12
88K SF | 120M$3.99 NNN Eff. $50 TI | Q2-12
250K SF | 126M$3.06 NNN Eff. $15 TI | Q4-10
557K SF | 144M$3.62 NNN Eff. $50 TI | Q3-12
157K SF | 120M$2.45 NNN Eff. $80 TI | Q2-10
100K SF | 120M$3.13 NNN Eff. $44 TI | Q3-11
385K SF | 144M$3.90 NNN Eff. $60 TI | Q3-12
341K SF | 180M$3.80 NNN Eff. $60 TI | Q3-11
150K SF | 120M$3.29 NNN Eff. $55 TI | Q3-12
150K SF | 120M$3.29 NNN Eff. $50 TI | Q3-12
300K SF | 120M$3.29 NNN Eff. As Is | Q3-12
136K SF | 84M$3.56 NNN Eff. $50 TI | Q4-12
2/6/2013
7
Oakland East Bay Transactions
93K SF | 120MConfidentialQ2-12
110K SF | 84M$1.99 FS Eff. $15 | Q4-12
53K SF | 64M$2.84 FS Eff. $20 | Q1-12
52K SF | 128M$1.20 NNN Eff. $40 | Q3-12
48K SF | 84M$2.76 FS Eff. $20 | Q3-12
44K SF ConfidentialQ3-12
36K SF | 54M$1.27 IG Eff. $23 | Q1-12
36K SF | 132M$2.92 FS Eff. $40 | Q1-12
34K SF | 84M$1.64 FS Eff. $12 | Q3-12
30K SF | 61M$3.08 FS Eff. $50 | Q3-12
Bay Area Office Absorption
2/6/2013
8
Bay Area Office Market
Rental Rate Comparison (Monthly/Square Foot)
$3.62
$3.34
$2.77
$2.49
$2.18$2.09
$1.88
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
SF Pen. SC Marin Oak WC Pls.
Bay Area Venture Capital Funding
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers Money Tree
Dollar Volume by Region (Q4-2012)
Silicon Valley
New England
NY Metro
LA/Orange County
Northwest
SouthWest
Midwest
Southeast
Texas
San Diego
DC/Metroplex
Colorado
North Central
Philadelphia Metro
South Central
Upstate NY
Funding ($M) Deals
$2,619.43 309
$826.10 114
$512.83 107
$452.96 70
$447.27 38
$241.51 20
$234.23 79
$215.66 36
$194.70 33
$180.83 24
$170.39 39
$127.72 21
$99.77 13
$81.18 43
$57.20 6
$19.95 12
Total US $6,396.80 968
2/6/2013
9
Bay Area Venture Capital Funding
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers Money Tree
Quarterly Volume Trend (Dollar Volume; Deals)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Investment $ Amount # of Deals
$3.3B; 359Q4-2007
$2.5B; 309Q4-2012
Bill
ions
$9.3B; 584Q2-2000
De
als
Bay Area Investment Trend
Total Dollar Volume & Cap Rate Trend ($Billions)
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dollar Volume (Billions) Cap Rate
2/6/2013
10
Bay Area Investment Trend
Total Dollar Volume ($Billions) by Property Type
OFC80%
IND1%
RET10%
MF9%
San Francisco: $6.7B
OFC67%
IND10%
RET6%
MF17%
Peninsula: $1.1B
OFC14%
IND13%
RET35%
MF38%
North Bay: $1.1B
OFC31%
IND11%
RET41%
MF17%
East Bay: $3.0B
OFC43%
IND30%
RET9%
MF18%
Silicon Valley: $5.8B
OFC55%
IND13%
RET16%
MF16%
Total Bay Area: $17.8B
Bay Area Investment Trend
$2,139
$7,231
$1,800
$3,490
$1,822
$856
-$1,681
-$7,163
-$2,477
-$4,137
-$693-$1,174
-$8,000
-$7,000
-$6,000
-$5,000
-$4,000
-$3,000
-$2,000
-$1,000
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
REIT Private Inst'l Equity Fund User/Other Foreign
Acq
uis
itio
ns
Dis
po
sitio
ns
Capital Sector Activity in 2012 ($Millions)
2/6/2013
11
Forecast for 2013
Office� West Bay markets to continue to lead the bay area recovery
� Migration out of San Francisco will not be the “answer” to Oakland
� Rental rates to continue rising throughout the Bay Area, Oakland and surrounding East Bay to see more pronounced growth
� Select speculative entitled projects to break ground while build-to-suit sites become of interest
Industrial� Manufacturing and new housing demands in the
region will lead to lower vacancies
� Rental rates to see modest improvement
� Projects in close proximity Port of Oakland, OAK and SFO will see strong demand
Market knowledge. Insight on trends. Expert forecasts.
OAKLAND CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
Vision 2020Commercial Real Estate Overview
Presented by:
Mike MoranManaging PartnerOffice Division